available odds V agreed good value

The problem with this is that, even if you can get agreement(!), the agreed good value is very likely to be wrong.

Which takes me back to my original point on value, is that value is an opinion. And what proves that point is some ppl will back one side others will back the other side as everyone see "their"side a svalue??????

However I'll post up some bets shortly for discussion and opinion on value.

No, you're still missing the subtlety.  The true odds of an outcome is an exact figure.  It is, however, inaccessible which results in differing evaluations of it and therefore different opinions as to what is and isn't value. But there is a scientific truth there, otherwise it would be impossible to make a profit. In fact if value was just an opinion there would be no need for prices at all.

Value is not an opinion. It may be difficult in sports to calculate, but it is as real as a spin on the roulette wheel. Everyone may have an opinion of the 'correct price' on an outcome, but some will be wrong and others will be right. Long-term winners are finding value, whether they are aware of the fact or not, and while it is possible to be lucky and win short-term without finding value, the probabilities will catch up with you sooner rather than later.

Bet number 1

Laying Aaron Baddely To win The Tour Championship

Liabillity $100 @ $4.90

A 6 horse race he shot a great round 3 can he play another great round??

My bet bank Balance $1900

Value bet bank balance $2000

What price would you say is value for bet number 1

And would you place this bet??


My thoughts on value is when i think the prices posted are wrong or if they have who i think is the outsider as the favourite, that happens in AFL and league quite often, but again. That is my opinion??

Bet number 2

EPL

QPR V Aston Villa

backing the Draw at $3.35 for $100

Neither side has a good goal scoring record both sides are barely capable of scoring a goal so we'll select the draw.

What price would be value for bet number 2 and would you place it?

My bet bank balance $1800

value bet bank $2000.

I'd back Aaron Baddeley at that price. The draw is about right for me and if anything a lay at 3.35

I priced the draw in the QPR game @3.25 so it was slightly value

bet 1

Laying Aaron Baddely To win The Tour Championship

Liabillity $100 @ $4.90

winning bet profit $25.

**************************************************************************

Bet number 2

EPL

QPR V Aston Villa

backing the Draw at $3.35 for $100

winning bet profit $235

*********************************************************


My Bet bank balance $2260   

strike rate 2/2 100%

P/L +$260


value bet bank balance $2000

Seeing none of the caped crusaders of all things value had no commentary on the selections, we'll assume they didn't think it was value and as such the bank remains untouched.

Oh and if you want to talk about my selections and add your pricing, do so before the kick off.


Will post up more selections this afternoon

Understanding the concept of value and it's importance in achieving a long-term profit does not mean that you can accurately price up any selection in any market.

cat flap did you not heed my advice?

He's not replying to your pm, so don't keep pestering him about it. You're just wasting your time! 

(Although I suppose it's better for you to waste your time on something that doesn't cost you money rather than wasting it on something that does!!   Actually, now that I think about it, perhaps you should spend as much time as possible asking him to answer your pm. It's the closest thing to a money-making strategy you're going to get! )

As Bayes said, the draw was about the right price, there was certainly no value in it as a bet for long term gains. An equalising goal in the 94th minute just means that backers got lucky this time, nothing more nothing less.

I'll post pre event if I think one of your selections is value GCI, but that means I may not post for quite some while as I like to positively identify the value, not just guess.

My prediction is that over the course of a year even a static value bank will beat your guessing bank :) No offence intended so don't be touchy, it's just my opinion which you can prove wrong.

QPR drawing? surely luck not value whatever the manual says

So value is only value pre event and does not take into consideration random events that are unpredictable.

You need a decent dose of luck to stay afloat betting, sometime that luck is good some times its bad.

Yes it was a lucky goal it was that secured the draw.

OK.

So how about you post a bet, just 1 that you think is good value and we'll see what happens to it?? based purely on value.

That would be totally pointless, trying not to sound patronising, but one bet could go either way and means nothing, i.e. I'll post up my bet of backing heads on the next coin flip, on which I've managed to secure odds of 2.2 (10% positively identified value) but it still has a 50/50 chance of losing. Over many days betting on coin flips I will of course gain 10% profit. Can't believe I'm getting drawn into this again :)

Is value only value at the time of the bet being placed?? because from everything I read here about value, hindsight plays an awful lot in its calculation. Your term "value" is not constant it changes with time and events.

Lets be honest we have no clue what the end result of a match will be, so the term value over time is used, however value over time wont help you decide on a selection right now.

Value is a term that has no meaning, it is an opinion used to sound like an enlightened punter, when in fact no one can tell you what good value is on any bet.

Value is the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow....................................it is a term that means nothing and will never lead you to a bet.

You'll have far more success identifying a winner and securing the highest odds, however the highest odds may be under what you deem value and you pass it up, however the selection wins so in fact you have lost money.

Today we'll move over to the rugby world cup.

namibia up against wales

There haven't been too many absolute blow out score lines, seems when a side gets well in front they take the foot off the neck allowing the victim some air.

I think Namibia will score 12-20 points meaning wales need 70pts+ to cover the spread?? bi ask IMO.


So

Bet 3

Rugby world cup

Namibia V Wales

Namibia to win with 57.5pts start at $2.10 for $100


My bet bank balance $2160

value bet bank balance $2000 (untouched)

GCI, you are either a very good fisherman or an extremely poor gambler.

Just in case it's the latter:

Is value only value at the time of the bet being placed?? because from everything I read here about value, hindsight plays an awful lot in its calculation. Your term "value" is not constant it changes with time and events.

That is true, because the true odds of the event can vary over the course of time, especially in play.  Surely you understand why a football team's odds of winning a match reduce each time a goal is scored?  Why do you think that is?

For this reason hindsight is useless and actually a bad thing for gamblers to use unless its to review there selection process. A lost value bet is a good bet as is a won poor value one.

Lets be honest we have no clue what the end result of a match will be, so the term value over time is used, however value over time wont help you decide on a selection right now.

Of course we have a clue.  I know nothing about football but if Man utd were playing chelsea I know their odds of winning would be somewhere between 1 and 10.  Of course, I need to be much more precise to select a bet.

Value is a term that has no meaning, it is an opinion used to sound like an enlightened punter, when in fact no one can tell you what good value is on any bet.

Value is the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow....................................it is a term that means nothing and will never lead you to a bet.

There are lots of opinions, that's really what a betting exchange is about.  The winners are those whose opinions are most accurate over time.

You'll have far more success identifying a winner and securing the highest odds, however the highest odds may be under what you deem value and you pass it up, however the selection wins so in fact you have lost money.

You can't identify a winner.

Bet 3 is a loser.

Wales put on 80 odd points, blew Namibia off the park.


My bet bank balance  $2160

Value bet bank  $2000 (untouched)

GoldCoastinvestor 26 Sep 11 04:53 
Is value only value at the time of the bet being placed?? because from everything I read here about value, hindsight plays an awful lot in its calculation. Your term "value" is not constant it changes with time and events.

Lets be honest we have no clue what the end result of a match will be, so the term value over time is used, however value over time wont help you decide on a selection right now.

Value is a term that has no meaning, it is an opinion used to sound like an enlightened punter, when in fact no one can tell you what good value is on any bet.

Value is the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow....................................it is a term that means nothing and will never lead you to a bet.

You'll have far more success identifying a winner and securing the highest odds, however the highest odds may be under what you deem value and you pass it up, however the selection wins so in fact you have lost money.
==========================================================


"Value is a term that has no meaning, it is an opinion used to sound like an enlightened punter, when in fact no one can tell you what good value is on any bet."

Say you have a system that rates all horses in a race.......and you know from past stats that "good odds " winners are 70% of time in top 50%+1 of field size ( those ABOVE THE LINE).

You also know that backing ALL horses ABOVE THE LINE that meet the odds criteria has in past produced a high ROI due to system operating to high standard re ratings ( achieving the "70%" figure ) .

You say "value has no meaning"......but if a horse is say ranked 7th top in a field size of 21 runners and is at 22-1 SP odds, then, if you trust the system ratings being up to standard, clearly such odds are "VALUE" ( only 6 horses above it in RANK for race etc ).

It is not "opinion" re whether "value" exists on this selection or not......but the odds of horse and the RANK position in 21 runner field.

You don't know it is going to win......but as it is in the top 50%+ 1 of field then at least you "know" you are backing "value" based on system past record and on the odds for horse in the 7th RANK position.

If the 4-1 SP fav is ranked 8th in 21 runner race......the system is indicating it is not "good value".

You say " no one can tell you what good value is on any bet".......a system and selection method can ........IMO

GL with thread.

If there are no 'good value' prices then value doesn't exist, and therefore there can be no bad value prices either, and the concept of probablity is irrelevant to betting.

So in every football match the odds should be...

2/1 Home
2/1 Draw
2/1 Away

even if it is  Barcelona v Rochdale

All those results would be possible, and if none of them are any more probable than the others , then those would be the odds.

If you think that , say, Barcelona winning , is more likely than the other results, then you have to agree that 2/1 is a value bet.

Tobermory,
when do they play? will Messi start? If he is can i have some on Barca please.

Very clear and concise posts from both Tobermory and Trevh on value.

Are you ever goingto get 2/1 inthat example in the real world?


Nope so why post it???


I challenge you and I know you'll not reply.

That is go and find and post just 1 bet that you thinkis good value, and we'll see what happens with it.

I am not asking you to build a re entry vehicle from space, just 1 good value bet.

After all there are hundreds of events and value is everywhere ?????

"value" only exists when you think the market has it wrong.

And that is just your opinion thatth emarket has it wrong,because if it was truely wrong the price would get hammered and it would shorten into fav, it happens sometimes not often though.


I have seen events where who I thought would win was the outsider and watched them win.

Happens sometimes, but me thinking they'd win was just my opinion.

Value is just your opinion nothing more nothing less.

If you try and only back your value bets, you'll do your ass quicker than Rock Hudson.

GCI, all you're demonstrating is that you're another punter that thinks he understands value but actually does not. You and Schalke would make a good pair, as simple as the concept is you just cannot get your heads around it.

Are you ever goingto get 2/1 in that example in the real world?

No, because people appreciate that the probablity of Barcelona winning at home to Rochdale is greater than 33.33%

And you don't dispute it.  So you agree 2/1 is the wrong price . So how is there a wrong price if there is not a correct price??

So of course there is a correct price, and anything bigger than that would be value.

That is go and find and post just 1 bet that you thinkis good value, and we'll see what happens with it.

1 bet [!] Wether 1 bet wins or loses hardly proves it was value or not . To determine if someone's approach is genuinely finding value it would have to be applied consistently over hundreds of bets at least.

For what it's worth here are 2 bets i did recommend for tommorow's games

Lay Benfica @1.57 v Otelu Galati
Back Villareal at Napoli @5.8

GCI
TrevH wrote this
That would be totally pointless, trying not to sound patronising, but one bet could go either way and means nothing, i.e. I'll post up my bet of backing heads on the next coin flip, on which I've managed to secure odds of 2.2 (10% positively identified value) but it still has a 50/50 chance of losing. Over many days betting on coin flips I will of course gain 10% profit. Can't believe I'm getting drawn into this again :)

Im going to add to it and hope that TrevH will correct me if ive missed his point,

a bookie is taking bets on the flip of a coin, offering 1/1 on Heads and 1/1 on tails, the first 9 flips have come up heads, at which stage the bookie alters the odds to 11/10 heads, 10/11 tails.  Where is the value?

Your right that value is an opinion, but the above example shows, albeit simply in a very rigid setup (not like Sport where there are all manner of ways to reach a result), that finding value regularly is the only way to succeed.  Some people placing bets on the flipping of the coin will look at the fact there has been 9 heads, and think that a tails must be due, but they would be taking a poor value price, it might win, but over time you will lose.  This is why you asking for 1 example is not going to help prove any point, and you have misunderstood Trevh's post.

I'll bet my balls that none of you defenders of all things value have ever placed a bet purley on value.

You would have first look at the event at hand.

Made a decision on who you think will win.

THEN

Go then look at the markets once they are availible looked at the odds and taken whatever price was availible within reason. I generally don't take a price under $1-40 regardless of the event.

No one would look at the price first then place the bet.

It doesn't work like that.

here is an example

Man U at home with the strongest side possible V last placed team

at what price would you start to back the last placed team?? say they are 10-1 but you could get 50-1 would you back that last placed team at 50s what about 100-1 surely that represents great value??


I bet you wouldn't, but why not they would be good value????????


Like I've said if you solely backed every bet on what you preceive as value, you will not have won money as your value bet will most likely lose and there are very few bets that are over their true price, almost all prices bookies and totes etc are well under their true odds.

You have to back the side you think is going to win and you have to be right alot more times than your wrong.



Those 2 bets

Why do you think they are good value??? and what price do you think they should be??

GCI would you back the last place team at 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000/1?

GCI, you don't understand value, and one thing I've learnt from my Schalke experience is that you probably never will.

I rarely make a decision on who I think will win, I predict odds not outcomes, so I'll happily take 2.2 for heads or tails knowing that I can't accurately predict the outcome.

With regard to your scenario, if you back an underdog at say 100/1 of course you are going to lose many many times in a row, but if the true price is calculated to be 90/1 then on average you will be making 10 stakes profit every 91 matches, while the layer who's offering 100/1 and winning many many times in a row will find himself 10 stakes down. This is simple 1st year gambling knowledge.

There is nothing anyone can or has written that spell out exactly what is value, why??

Because it is an opinion.

What you think is value might be unders for others. Whats is unders for some you may think is overs.

how can you measure something that everyone has a different opinion on.

Black is black, white is white your term "value" is somewhere in between and everyone has a different point at what represents value.

You can not measure value, you can ever say you got value you can't prove what value is.

because in your own words you've stated that it is different to everyone, That sums it up it is just an opinion.

Now your coin toss theory at 2.20 sums up the scenario perfectly, however this mythical thing called value in a coin toss is never found, why??

Bookies will only at best give you $1.95 on a coin toss, you see it in the cricket all the time.

So to add weight to your value arguement you've again used a situation that never has nor will ever exist.

You could not in a million years find any bookie offering or who has offered $2.20 on a coin toss.

So if you want to defend your term value use real life examples. But you can't because its your opinion V others opinions.

Trevh, it's futile. I am enjoying a slap up breakfast in the covent garden hotel paid for by the value-blind majority on here.

Long may they continue to ridicule us!

VALUE CAN BE MORE THAN AN OPINION IF YOU HAVE A SYSTEM THAT SPOTS VALUE   YOUR VERY KNOWLEGABLE AT YOUR CHOSEN SPORT


AND BY THE WAY SOCCERMETRICS IN ITS TRUE FORM WOULD HAVE SHOWN YOU UP IN TWO SECONDS

IM SURE EVERY ONE THINKS 1.01S WILL WIN GO AND BACK EVERY 1.01 AND SEE HOW FAR YOU GET

Trev H...one question..You wrote that Rangers equalising in the 94th minute against Villa meant that draw backers "got lucky" this time. I don't follow that. How is that luckier than if they'd equalised in the 71st minute? Or if they'd scored in the 10th minute and then Villa had equalised? Both teams have 90 minutes plus added time to score. Goals occur at all different times, it's a normal part of the game. In my opinion the times at which goals are scored is nothing to do with luck.

Some very clever people on here , no wonder my M.0 has improved so much over the last 3 years - thanks very much

GoldCoastinvestor 27 Sep 11 04:20
Now your coin toss theory at 2.20 sums up the scenario perfectly, however this mythical thing called value in a coin toss is never found, why??

Bookies will only at best give you $1.95 on a coin toss, you see it in the cricket all the time.

So to add weight to your value arguement you've again used a situation that never has nor will ever exist.

You could not in a million years find any bookie offering or who has offered $2.20 on a coin toss.

So if you want to defend your term value use real life examples. But you can't because its your opinion V others opinions.
============================================================

A "system" of rating horses can indicate "VALUE" bets based on position in RANKING and also ODDS.

EXAMPLE

DONCASTER

14:45  Spring Mile (handicap) (straight) 4yo plus 1m Class 2  21 runners Good to Firm Good IP

1,Opus Maximus                 25
2,Nightjar                      20
3,Nanton                       9 JT 4TH F
4,The Fifth Member                                          4TH 12-1
5,Osteopathic Remedy            28
6,Kings Point                  28
7,Manassas                                                 1ST 22-1 SP 1&3 £148.40 WITH 4TH JF  BF SP 25  MAX IP 25
8,Fireside                       4 F
9,Mangham                     8  3RD FAV
10,Slugger O'Toole              12
11,Spectait                     13-2 2ND FAV
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12,The Osteopath                 18
13,Flawed Genius                 20
14,Lucky Dance                     33
15,Medici Pearl                    66
16,Majuro                                                  3RD 9-1 JT 4TH F
17,Exit Smiling                    100
18,Extraterrestrial                                       2ND 16-1 2&3 £38.40 WITH JT 4TH FAV
19,Dabbers Ridge                   66
20,Raptor                        40
21,Invincible Force               40
==============================================================


The 4 horses are in top part of FIELD size and are at CLEARLY "VALUE ODDS" due to their position in RANKINGS.

If you had backed them due to -

1. Them being in top rated horses ( and based on previous analysis of HUNDREDS of rated races you know the system gets roughly 2 out of 3 high odds horses that win in top rated horses), and

2. They are CLEARLY "VALUE ODDS" due to their RANKING position.

As it happens one of 4 won at 22-1 SP.

If all 4 did not win that race......then you know you still backed horses that 1. had a reasonable chance to win....due to RANK...and 2. were at "VALUE ODDS".



Of course on BF you are not backing at SP odds.....it was 24-1 at BF SP ( 25-1) and IR the highest BF odds were also 24-1 SP. It is very likely that if you tried to get odds above 24-1 SP on BF before race time that you would have got the "extra value" by so doing.

If you just back ....at the odds available ....ie BF SP on here then you still KNOW YOU HAVE "VALUE" for reasons above.


You might say this is a ONE OFF event and won't be repeated .......but based on analysis of HUNDREDS of RATED RACES I "know" the system does its job well, and that by backing horses that are VALUE ODDS in top rated. The "VALUE" is not opinion ......IMO........it is due to their RANKING position and the ODDS meeting a minimum odds criteria etc.

I posted some stats on the GRAIL thread re what would have happened had this STRATEGY been applied to races rated in JULY 2008 that X PROFIT would have been made using £100 stakes.........However, had you backed horses BELOW the LINE in RATINGS at the SAME ODDS ( [b]not the same VALUE though as their position in RANKINGS were BELOW THE LINE!), then you would have incurred a LOSS![/b]

In effect the system of RATINGS had operated to a good standard in JULY 2008........and this is supported by the fact of the TWO different outcomes re BACKING VALUE ones above the line compared to backing similar odds below the line.

One bet does not mean a VALUE bet method has failed if it loses.......only THOUSANDS of bets can indicate whether you had VALUE or NOT.

GL with your thread though ......I hope your "OPINION" makes it profitable for you.

5 bets above ...not 4......4 lost though!

but will anyone even place thousands of bets are reseach thousands of bets

Pretty sure that the ones making huge profits are.........BOTS mainly though.

where are these bots how do they work where can i get info on them how do they work exactly

Look under "Announcements" heading on top left hand side of FORUM for API Products for information.

Google BOTS ...bound to get some more info there.

Ah, the old chestnut...

Of course value is an opinion. There is a big difference, however, in having an opinion about value and having an opinion about an outcome. That's why bookies (and now more so Betfair) encourage punters to back their opinion of the outcome and not their opinion of the value - because they want punters to feast on poor value.
Part of the fascination of sports betting is that there are many ways to form an opinion and to beat the market you must find an approach that's different from the crowd. If it were just a mathematical exercise we'd all know where we stood and the markets would be ultra efficient.

Not only do I only place purely value bets, I will back/lay my opinion of value when it's counter to my opinion of an outcome. If I expected a team to win and thought 1.70 was a fair chance I would definitely lay them at 1.40 (and back at 2.0 or above). The point is that I haven't formed an opinion of whether they will win or not, but how likely they are to win, while any value actually comes from the market.

Does anyone really think that price is so unimportant they would back their opinion of an outcome regardless of the price? I think not.

Catfloppo - Do you think that your breakfast was a value breakfast?

GCI : You could not in a million years find any bookie offering or who has offered $2.20 on a coin toss.

So if you want to defend your term value use real life examples. But you can't because its your opinion V others opinions.

Of course bookies won't offer you that, but you can ask for it and get matched.

Dizzydavid1 : Trev H...one question..You wrote that Rangers equalising in the 94th minute against Villa meant that draw backers "got lucky" this time. I don't follow that.

He got lucky because the true odds of him losing that bet were roughly 1.1 just before the equaliser was scored.

U.A.

I am a pro, i wouldn't buy a poor value breakfast [;)]

Aoor value breakfast.

Well what you paid for breakfast soem may think was a poor value, but the fellow who got way more than he bargained for but the same as what you ate for the same price thinks he got a huge deal???


Again

opinions.


Now the race summary posted would fall over IMO.


Youve selected 5 horses of which 1 outsider won.

So you effectively backed a 4-1winner.

However the odds you backing and the race type your betting in I'd be hard pressed to believe that 1 in 4 races that you backed a winner??

I know in Australian races 1 in 3 favs win races that leaves 2 in 3 for non favs.

however 1 in 3 races is won by the next 3 favs so your left with 1 in 3 and the chances of your outsider winning is well possible but highly unlikely and you would go on long losing stretches?? probably busting your beank before you hit a winner at an average price of 4-1 again.

Trevh

When: 27 Sep 11 20:48 Joined: Date Joined: 21 Jul 06 | Topic/replies: 1,217 | Blogger: Trevh's blog

Dizzydavid1 : Trev H...one question..You wrote that Rangers equalising in the 94th minute against Villa meant that draw backers "got lucky" this time. I don't follow that.

Trevh....He got lucky because the true odds of him losing that bet were roughly 1.1 just before the equaliser was scored.

^^^^^^^^^
Is it therefore the case that I'm lucky anytime I successfully lay a 1.1 shot at the true odds of 1.1?

And re the Rangers v Villa game, after what point in the game would the Rangers' equaliiser have to have been scored for it to be classed as lucky for the backer?  74th minute, not lucky? 88th minute , lucky? Where do you draw the line?

I'm not having a go, just playing Devil's Apricot re the idea of 'luck'.

My own views on 'luck' in football betting are that the only things I'd really classify as lucky/unlucky (depending on which side your bet is on) are blatantly incorrect refereeing decisions, and by blatantly I mean beyond all reasonable doubt, and events like floodlight failure or weather causing a game to be abandoned after it's started. When you place a bet you know it applies to 90 minutes plus added time and the odds take into account that time period. Sometimes I read posts where people bemoan their 'luck' because they had for example a 6 fold acca , 5 results landed and the 5th denied them by an injury time goal. To me that's not unlucky, the odds they got reflected the fact that getting 6 results in is difficult and improbable, and that's what the outcome proved. If a team go 3-0 up in the first half, then the oppo get three goals in the last 10 minutes to draw the game, to me that's no more unlucky for the backer of the team who led than if all 6 goals had all been scored alternately in the first 70 minutes.

Luck is a short term deviation from the statistical average.

PS I know blatantly incorrect refereeing decisions are also a normal part of the game and that element of uncertainty is to be anticipated when you place a bet but I guess trying to define luck involves having to draw the line somewhere and, for me, if a 'beyond all reasonable doubt' wrong decision has cost me, I'd class that as unlucky, even though it's something you know to expect to happen during games sometimes.

And where does a 94th minute equaliser fit into that Cat?

Does anyone really think that price is so unimportant they would back their opinion of an outcome regardless of the price? I think not.

I used to talk to a guy (Before he wished me dead for going on holiday rather than giving him my value NFL picks) who pretended to be a pro gambler.

His whole philosophy was "Find the winner" and didn't believe in value at all.

Of course all he actually did was divine what other people were betting and throw out a bunch of reasoning for some odds on shots in return.
It's a good scam, but falls down at the point where it's plainly obvious you're talking borrocks.

94th minute equalisers will happen. If you have a period during which 94th minute equalisers happen more often than they should and you benefit as a result you can say you have been lucky.

If you find that 94th minute equalisers are over/undervalued on here based on the prices on offer then you have found a source of good value bets that you can exploit to make money in the long term.

Is it therefore the case that I'm lucky anytime I successfully lay a 1.1 shot at the true odds of 1.1?

Not long term, as you know over time you will break level losing 10 then winning 1 to get your money back.

As an individual bet it's a bet that isn't worth placing, but yes you would be lucky to win it on a one off basis.

Keep accurate records.

If you are a winner then you can either find value or you have been lucky. You can't know for certain which.

Assumimg you are profitable,the more bets covered by your records the more likely it is that you can find value.

Statistics dictates that there will be some poor soles out there making value plays but who are still long term losers. They have just been unlucky.

Coversely there will be some long term winners,actually making bad value bets, who think they have 'cracked it'. They have just been lucky.

Self delusion is rife.

*souls

Like I've said if you solely backed every bet on what you preceive as value, you will not have won money as your value bet will most likely lose and there are very few bets that are over their true price, almost all prices bookies and totes etc are well under their true odds.

You have to back the side you think is going to win and you have to be right alot more times than your wrong.


Of course if you are backing the teams playing away to Man U or  Barcelona then almost every bet you place will be loser . But when you do win you will likely get big odds winners . Since Guardiola has been Barcleona manager they have maybe been the best team in the history of the sport .If someone started on Day 1 having £10 on every away team that has been there, then they will have gone a hell of a long time between winners.Most of their bets would have been stone dead inside 20 minutes, half of them would have gone down 4,5 6-0 or more . But Barcelona have in that time played about 85 home games so the guy backing every team that visits them will have staked £850 and collected £450 when Rubin Kazan won there, £500 odd when Hercules won , about  £200 when Espanol (i think it was them ) won in 2009 and i think there was another in a Spanish Cup game.

You talk about bookies pricing under the true odds, well that just proves what you are trying to argue against .There are indeed true odds , based on the probablities of the various possible outcomes .The Bookies Odds Compilers do not sit about pondering 'what they think will win' , they just figure out the true odds , eg Evens, and then offer what they are confident is a poor value price , eg 4/5 , but 4/6 if they figure the 'i think they'll win' people are clueless and numerous enough to pile enough money on at even worse odds. The Bookies compilers are not superhuman though , and there are punters just as good or better at it than they are, who catch them out when they from time to time offer a price above the true odds.

tobermory

Your lay of benfica lost

and you backing of Villa real lost

0/2

Good value bets though..............................

do the bookmakers use computers to compile odds how do they compile odds in obscure leagues like the chinese reserve league

if you post a bet up that i have formulated an opinion on GCI I will give you that opinion either way.

But you can't just apply yourself to any old sport or any game within it

It's got to be what you "do"

tobermory

Your lay of benfica lost

and you backing of Villa real lost

0/2

Good value bets though


I believed them to be value, and they may well have been, though i am less confident on the Champion's League games.

Adding the 2 i did the night after it is 0/4

Barcelona lay 1.13
Leverkusen lay 1.32

I would certainly expect to be winning long term by placing value bets.

For tommorow Lay Man United@1.17 v Norwich

My point exactly you believed, in other words your opinion.

value can't be measured, its an opinion.

Glad your all starting to agree with me.

Bet 4

EPL

Man City to beat Blackburn @ $1.60 for $100

bank balance $2060


Bet 5

This is massive overs in my opinion

EPL

Man U to win with a clean sheet v Norwich @ $1.85 for $200    No way in hell will Norwich score against Man U

bank balance $1860

Sorry Bet 5

is to keep a clean sheet they don't have to win

value can't be measured, its an opinion.

If you can't measure value, why would you ever have a bet?

Value exists. "We’re not in the business of prediction, we’re in the business of probability. A successful punter backs both winners and losers, ensuring that the rewards from the winners outweigh the cost of the losers. Value is what it’s all about"
.
http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2011/04/value-kelly-and-roi-blog-post-of-year.html

I like to keep things simple and I saw a post on another thread about value which, for me, sums up the whole debate.
The poster was Get On MASSIVE and the post is copied below:


Get On MASSIVE
28 Sep 11 10:50
Joined:
25 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 379 | Blogger: Get On MASSIVE's blog



If I went to the casino and someone offered me 50/1 for the zero to come in next on the roulette wheel.

Would I back it? Yes.
Do I expect to win? No.




This is a beautifully simple example of recognizable value odds that cannot be refused. The unwritten elements are the knowledge of stats and the time factor.
In other words, our knowledge of stats tells us that zero does come up on the roulette wheel just like any other number in a random fashion. The time factor comes into play because we know that if we had numerous opportunities over time to repeat the bet, the likelihood is that we would be successful.

nice day for you there GCI

for tommorow i will be going for

Arsenal to beat Spurs 3.8

3:15 Longchamp: Workforce 10.5 & Treaure Beach 36

4:45:  Sandy's Charm 9.4

Going to bring my value bets across from the other thread as there seems to be some record keeping here:


JamesBlakesHugeArse
30 Sep 11 12:12 Joined: 03 May 05 | Topic/replies: 2,416 | Blogger: JamesBlakesHugeArse's blog
Partick DNB 1.73 stan james
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JamesBlakesHugeArse
30 Sep 11 12:14 Joined: 03 May 05 | Topic/replies: 2,416 | Blogger: JamesBlakesHugeArse's blog
Banvit under 153.5 1.85 Euroleague basketball - admiral
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JamesBlakesHugeArse
30 Sep 11 12:19 Joined: 03 May 05 | Topic/replies: 2,416 | Blogger: JamesBlakesHugeArse's blog
Toronto - Red Bull New York - over 0.5 goals first half, 1.5, TAB


First 2 were winners

Starting bank $2000

Current bank bal $2590

P/L + $590

Strike rate 4/5

OK another massive overs is availible in my opinion.

EPL

Bolton V Chelsea

Chelsea to keep a clean sheet @ $2.24 for $100


Bolton have only scored 3 home goals and have been beaten to 0 by Man U and Arsenal, Chelsea sits between these 2 teams so I can't see Bolton troubling the score attendant here??

balance $2490

Bolton have only scored 3 home goals and have been beaten to 0 by Man U and Arsenal, Chelsea sits between these 2 teams so I can't see Bolton troubling the score attendant here??

Is this a deliberately dumbed down version so people can understand your bet, or is this actually your reasoning?

BOLTON are at home and did score 2 v MAN CITY ....one of most stodgiest teams in league.

CHELSEA played in VALENCIA and had a fairly tough game. Will they suffer a reaction to that match?

BOLTON look likely to score....IMO .....but CHELSEA still likely to win. MGOFS 1-2 or 2-2.

GL with bet......

Galatasaray - Lietuvos u 149.5 points, victor c 2.20

OK bet 6

Tennis Rakuten Open

Tomic to beat Ito

2 sets to nil @ $2.00 for $100

balance $2390