available odds V agreed good value

Which takes me back to my original point on value, is that value is an opinion. And what proves that point is some ppl will back one side others will back the other side as everyone see "their"side a svalue??????

However I'll post up some bets shortly for discussion and opinion on value.

Value is not an opinion. It may be difficult in sports to calculate, but it is as real as a spin on the roulette wheel. Everyone may have an opinion of the 'correct price' on an outcome, but some will be wrong and others will be right. Long-term winners are finding value, whether they are aware of the fact or not, and while it is possible to be lucky and win short-term without finding value, the probabilities will catch up with you sooner rather than later.

What price would you say is value for bet number 1

And would you place this bet??


My thoughts on value is when i think the prices posted are wrong or if they have who i think is the outsider as the favourite, that happens in AFL and league quite often, but again. That is my opinion??

My bet bank balance $1800

value bet bank $2000.

I priced the draw in the QPR game @3.25 so it was slightly value

Understanding the concept of value and it's importance in achieving a long-term profit does not mean that you can accurately price up any selection in any market.

He's not replying to your pm, so don't keep pestering him about it. You're just wasting your time! 

(Although I suppose it's better for you to waste your time on something that doesn't cost you money rather than wasting it on something that does!!   Actually, now that I think about it, perhaps you should spend as much time as possible asking him to answer your pm. It's the closest thing to a money-making strategy you're going to get! )

QPR drawing? surely luck not value whatever the manual says

That would be totally pointless, trying not to sound patronising, but one bet could go either way and means nothing, i.e. I'll post up my bet of backing heads on the next coin flip, on which I've managed to secure odds of 2.2 (10% positively identified value) but it still has a 50/50 chance of losing. Over many days betting on coin flips I will of course gain 10% profit. Can't believe I'm getting drawn into this again :)

Today we'll move over to the rugby world cup.

namibia up against wales

There haven't been too many absolute blow out score lines, seems when a side gets well in front they take the foot off the neck allowing the victim some air.

I think Namibia will score 12-20 points meaning wales need 70pts+ to cover the spread?? bi ask IMO.


So

Bet 3

Rugby world cup

Namibia V Wales

Namibia to win with 57.5pts start at $2.10 for $100


My bet bank balance $2160

value bet bank balance $2000 (untouched)

Just in case it's the latter:

Is value only value at the time of the bet being placed?? because from everything I read here about value, hindsight plays an awful lot in its calculation. Your term "value" is not constant it changes with time and events.

That is true, because the true odds of the event can vary over the course of time, especially in play.  Surely you understand why a football team's odds of winning a match reduce each time a goal is scored?  Why do you think that is?

For this reason hindsight is useless and actually a bad thing for gamblers to use unless its to review there selection process. A lost value bet is a good bet as is a won poor value one.

Lets be honest we have no clue what the end result of a match will be, so the term value over time is used, however value over time wont help you decide on a selection right now.

Of course we have a clue.  I know nothing about football but if Man utd were playing chelsea I know their odds of winning would be somewhere between 1 and 10.  Of course, I need to be much more precise to select a bet.

Value is a term that has no meaning, it is an opinion used to sound like an enlightened punter, when in fact no one can tell you what good value is on any bet.

Value is the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow....................................it is a term that means nothing and will never lead you to a bet.

There are lots of opinions, that's really what a betting exchange is about.  The winners are those whose opinions are most accurate over time.

You'll have far more success identifying a winner and securing the highest odds, however the highest odds may be under what you deem value and you pass it up, however the selection wins so in fact you have lost money.

You can't identify a winner.

GoldCoastinvestor 26 Sep 11 04:53 
Is value only value at the time of the bet being placed?? because from everything I read here about value, hindsight plays an awful lot in its calculation. Your term "value" is not constant it changes with time and events.

Lets be honest we have no clue what the end result of a match will be, so the term value over time is used, however value over time wont help you decide on a selection right now.

Value is a term that has no meaning, it is an opinion used to sound like an enlightened punter, when in fact no one can tell you what good value is on any bet.

Value is the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow....................................it is a term that means nothing and will never lead you to a bet.

You'll have far more success identifying a winner and securing the highest odds, however the highest odds may be under what you deem value and you pass it up, however the selection wins so in fact you have lost money.
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"Value is a term that has no meaning, it is an opinion used to sound like an enlightened punter, when in fact no one can tell you what good value is on any bet."

Say you have a system that rates all horses in a race.......and you know from past stats that "good odds " winners are 70% of time in top 50%+1 of field size ( those ABOVE THE LINE).

You also know that backing ALL horses ABOVE THE LINE that meet the odds criteria has in past produced a high ROI due to system operating to high standard re ratings ( achieving the "70%" figure ) .

You say "value has no meaning"......but if a horse is say ranked 7th top in a field size of 21 runners and is at 22-1 SP odds, then, if you trust the system ratings being up to standard, clearly such odds are "VALUE" ( only 6 horses above it in RANK for race etc ).

It is not "opinion" re whether "value" exists on this selection or not......but the odds of horse and the RANK position in 21 runner field.

You don't know it is going to win......but as it is in the top 50%+ 1 of field then at least you "know" you are backing "value" based on system past record and on the odds for horse in the 7th RANK position.

If the 4-1 SP fav is ranked 8th in 21 runner race......the system is indicating it is not "good value".

You say " no one can tell you what good value is on any bet".......a system and selection method can ........IMO

If there are no 'good value' prices then value doesn't exist, and therefore there can be no bad value prices either, and the concept of probablity is irrelevant to betting.

So in every football match the odds should be...

2/1 Home
2/1 Draw
2/1 Away

even if it is  Barcelona v Rochdale

All those results would be possible, and if none of them are any more probable than the others , then those would be the odds.

If you think that , say, Barcelona winning , is more likely than the other results, then you have to agree that 2/1 is a value bet.

Are you ever goingto get 2/1 inthat example in the real world?


Nope so why post it???


I challenge you and I know you'll not reply.

That is go and find and post just 1 bet that you thinkis good value, and we'll see what happens with it.

I am not asking you to build a re entry vehicle from space, just 1 good value bet.

After all there are hundreds of events and value is everywhere ?????

GCI, all you're demonstrating is that you're another punter that thinks he understands value but actually does not. You and Schalke would make a good pair, as simple as the concept is you just cannot get your heads around it.

GCI
TrevH wrote this
That would be totally pointless, trying not to sound patronising, but one bet could go either way and means nothing, i.e. I'll post up my bet of backing heads on the next coin flip, on which I've managed to secure odds of 2.2 (10% positively identified value) but it still has a 50/50 chance of losing. Over many days betting on coin flips I will of course gain 10% profit. Can't believe I'm getting drawn into this again :)

Im going to add to it and hope that TrevH will correct me if ive missed his point,

a bookie is taking bets on the flip of a coin, offering 1/1 on Heads and 1/1 on tails, the first 9 flips have come up heads, at which stage the bookie alters the odds to 11/10 heads, 10/11 tails.  Where is the value?

Your right that value is an opinion, but the above example shows, albeit simply in a very rigid setup (not like Sport where there are all manner of ways to reach a result), that finding value regularly is the only way to succeed.  Some people placing bets on the flipping of the coin will look at the fact there has been 9 heads, and think that a tails must be due, but they would be taking a poor value price, it might win, but over time you will lose.  This is why you asking for 1 example is not going to help prove any point, and you have misunderstood Trevh's post.

GCI would you back the last place team at 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000/1?

There is nothing anyone can or has written that spell out exactly what is value, why??

Because it is an opinion.

What you think is value might be unders for others. Whats is unders for some you may think is overs.

how can you measure something that everyone has a different opinion on.

Black is black, white is white your term "value" is somewhere in between and everyone has a different point at what represents value.

You can not measure value, you can ever say you got value you can't prove what value is.

because in your own words you've stated that it is different to everyone, That sums it up it is just an opinion.

Trevh, it's futile. I am enjoying a slap up breakfast in the covent garden hotel paid for by the value-blind majority on here.

Long may they continue to ridicule us!