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19 Sep 11
01:34
Joined:
Date Joined:
18 Sep 11
I'm really thinking about giving up the search a method to make money on here believe me i have tried loads of ideas and none seem to work i rarely bet as i have just been searching for strategies and none seem to work i cant find a way
even when i go through the form and make picks i cant seem to get it right and also mu ability to read form in football is now gone
i mean you go trough hours reading form and they still get beat teams 1.50 at home playing against teams that haven't won in 12 games sort of stuff and then if you try looking at games where odds are around evens your basically guessing who will win because when teams are similar priced their either two bad teams with bad form or two good teams with good form so how can you with confidence make a selection i know that in them types of games i would be guessing like man united v chelsea to me is a guessers game or like an in form man city v an inform man united another guessers game
i mean you go through hours reading form and you make a what seems a good selection and they still get beat
im lucky as i rarely bet and when i did it was very small stakes accept for that time when i was lumping on 1.05 shots and made money but stop and that was like 4 months ago
so i haven't lost money as as i said all i do is try to work out strategies or try to pick winners by going through form
my philosophy is why bet with real money unless you know you can win over a period of time or have a tried and tested system
some times ive spent most of the day putting stats on my pc and it can be quite tedious and boring just to go though the same thing of ditching an idea once i see a few losses it can make me annoyed
and with loads of strange results the last few days and on friday going thorough hours looking through form and most of my selections losing
i was seriously been thinking over the last couple of days is gambling really a mugs game (no disrespect to pros) i mean are the odds really against us so much even with laying
ive also begg
ining to think in football form is not significant enough to be making bets on form why because each match is different and teams can change formations and mentality example gais v norkkopping friday night gais were 1.50 on all form you would say gais would win but norkopping sat back defended scored on counter how can a guy going trough form know how a team will play each and every game is different so form in football to me is not relevant enough in a sport played by humans where managers can make changes i mean plymouth argyle will change soon and have a good game and when everyone in the land is betting against them just becuase they have lost their last six games ans are playing a team top of league thats won last 4
so im really thinking now is it time to relax and stop and think about other things in life
because im really beginning to think this betting stuff is really hard can you do it for life and the best way to do is just bet a small mount for fun or just simply bet at all as i dont need a bet to enjoy sports
im also concerned that their seems to be guys on here that are losing every night and it really must be making them go mental like these guys betting on overs in late night argie football
im not going to sit here and say it cant be don't because i believe it can actually i think anyone that has made consistent profits on here for more than 3 years deserve an mbe no matter if there making money using a simple method or some complex thing they also far smerter than any ejit that got a degree in media studies
good luck people i hope some of you can understand my post and meaning behind it
even when i go through the form and make picks i cant seem to get it right and also mu ability to read form in football is now gone
i mean you go trough hours reading form and they still get beat teams 1.50 at home playing against teams that haven't won in 12 games sort of stuff and then if you try looking at games where odds are around evens your basically guessing who will win because when teams are similar priced their either two bad teams with bad form or two good teams with good form so how can you with confidence make a selection i know that in them types of games i would be guessing like man united v chelsea to me is a guessers game or like an in form man city v an inform man united another guessers game
i mean you go through hours reading form and you make a what seems a good selection and they still get beat
im lucky as i rarely bet and when i did it was very small stakes accept for that time when i was lumping on 1.05 shots and made money but stop and that was like 4 months ago
so i haven't lost money as as i said all i do is try to work out strategies or try to pick winners by going through form
my philosophy is why bet with real money unless you know you can win over a period of time or have a tried and tested system
some times ive spent most of the day putting stats on my pc and it can be quite tedious and boring just to go though the same thing of ditching an idea once i see a few losses it can make me annoyed
and with loads of strange results the last few days and on friday going thorough hours looking through form and most of my selections losing
i was seriously been thinking over the last couple of days is gambling really a mugs game (no disrespect to pros) i mean are the odds really against us so much even with laying
ive also begg
ining to think in football form is not significant enough to be making bets on form why because each match is different and teams can change formations and mentality example gais v norkkopping friday night gais were 1.50 on all form you would say gais would win but norkopping sat back defended scored on counter how can a guy going trough form know how a team will play each and every game is different so form in football to me is not relevant enough in a sport played by humans where managers can make changes i mean plymouth argyle will change soon and have a good game and when everyone in the land is betting against them just becuase they have lost their last six games ans are playing a team top of league thats won last 4
so im really thinking now is it time to relax and stop and think about other things in life
because im really beginning to think this betting stuff is really hard can you do it for life and the best way to do is just bet a small mount for fun or just simply bet at all as i dont need a bet to enjoy sports
im also concerned that their seems to be guys on here that are losing every night and it really must be making them go mental like these guys betting on overs in late night argie football
im not going to sit here and say it cant be don't because i believe it can actually i think anyone that has made consistent profits on here for more than 3 years deserve an mbe no matter if there making money using a simple method or some complex thing they also far smerter than any ejit that got a degree in media studies
good luck people i hope some of you can understand my post and meaning behind it
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Dev used to be a clueless monkey who cluttered up the horse racing forums. A year or more on and he's now a still-pretty-much-clueless monkey who clutters up the football forum instead. Which is nice, as it now means I don't have to listen to him every day!
And no, we didn't speak much. I've since learnt that I have to be more charitable and try listening to fools, Paul.
Actually, having read his last few posts, forget it Paul. It's going to take you 3 or 4 years to reach his level of greatness!
lord bobbin why are u stalking me them clueless you call me i bet im better ay u at football
do u make money at betting if you dont then you cant calla anyone clueless u muppet
do u make money at betting if you dont then you cant calla anyone clueless u muppet
I'm not stalking you. I actually thought you had bitten the dust, but I was tipped off by somebody the other day that you were still around under various guises - I happened to ask about you while people were saying 'Gee, whatever happened to XXX?'. I then found myself viewing this thread and I realised that this was you. I wouldn't have said anything, but I was amused to see you and Paul finally bump into each other - I've always seen Paul as the modern-day you!
you were tipped off so some people on here are stalking me or following me anyway im sorry if i sounded rude
can we all be friends
paul is a good guy
ah so Bobbin you have form. this explains alot about your general pompousness. and dev i've never known LB post a bet either.
what other forum names has Dev had then?
what other forum names has Dev had then?
ive ha loads of other names but it was becuase i was banned
but i may leave here and come back some time undercover
but i may leave here and come back some time undercover
You are quite notorious Dev, so yes, people are aware of your work...
And no, I don't post bets. I'm actually quite happy for the two of you to think that this makes me a loser. More fool yourselves. (One thing I can assure you is that I would have no need to start off a thread like this one Dev!) Although Paulie, I do seem to remember getting the better of you last week when we posted our Man U bets!!
But I'm happy to leave the two of you to yourselves. You ask pretty much the same questions and think pretty much the same way, so I think the two of you are made for each other!!
And no, I don't post bets. I'm actually quite happy for the two of you to think that this makes me a loser. More fool yourselves. (One thing I can assure you is that I would have no need to start off a thread like this one Dev!) Although Paulie, I do seem to remember getting the better of you last week when we posted our Man U bets!!
But I'm happy to leave the two of you to yourselves. You ask pretty much the same questions and think pretty much the same way, so I think the two of you are made for each other!!
Oh yes its a wonderful hobby imagining everyone else is the same person that has it in for you while you say hello to your 129 different personalties, much better than being a wierdo IMO.
IVE NEVER SAID THAT NOT POSTING BETS MAKES YOU A LOSER THAT WHAT WAS WHAT PAUL SAID
I DONT ASK THE SAME QUESTION THE ONLT THING IOST WAS MY MENTALITY IF I GET THAT BACK I CAN SUCCEED
ANYWAY IF PEOPLE ARE AWARE OF ME ITS TIME TO LEAVE HERE AND COME BACK WHEN IM GOOD OR IF I DONT MAKE IT DONT COME BACK AT ALL
GOOD LUCK PAUL AND LORD BOBBIN
I DONT ASK THE SAME QUESTION THE ONLT THING IOST WAS MY MENTALITY IF I GET THAT BACK I CAN SUCCEED
ANYWAY IF PEOPLE ARE AWARE OF ME ITS TIME TO LEAVE HERE AND COME BACK WHEN IM GOOD OR IF I DONT MAKE IT DONT COME BACK AT ALL
GOOD LUCK PAUL AND LORD BOBBIN
IM ONLY HAVING A JOKE WHILE LOOKING THROUGH FORM YOU SEEM TO BE TAKING THINGS A BIT TOO SERIOUS IT IS ONLY A FORUM A STUPID ONE AT THAT A ONE WHICH IM LEAVING BECUASE YOULL GET NOWHERE ON HERE
good luck to you dev.
betfair fanatic - Oh yes its a wonderful hobby imagining everyone else is the same person that has it in for you while you say hello to your 129 different personalties,
who was doing that?
betfair fanatic - Oh yes its a wonderful hobby imagining everyone else is the same person that has it in for you while you say hello to your 129 different personalties,
who was doing that?
I assure you Dev, I'm not taking you at all seriously!!
Dont worry THE-REVOLUTIONARY. sending the van round soon and drop you off at corals.
well you seem to be on a bit of an echo trip
and whats an echo trip in plain Cantonese please.
Well i didn't know they had that effect, reckon I might try an omlette in the morning.
If your giving up on the holy grail how about searching for the source of the nile, or finding moby dick, theres fairys at the end of my garden if you want to rent it for a week.
ive said it before and i'll say it again bff, you are a card
by the way
Oh yes its a wonderful hobby imagining everyone else is the same person that has it in for you while you say hello to your 129 different personalties,
who was doing that?
by the way
Oh yes its a wonderful hobby imagining everyone else is the same person that has it in for you while you say hello to your 129 different personalties,
who was doing that?
Yep Paul, his training at clown school certainly paid off.
Or if I have mis-understood your thread and your just crap at picking winners just lay them all off as you do have a gift.
THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL YOU MOST USE YOUR HEAD TO WIN
There may be some systems out there but using knowledge is the only way keep learning keep praticing
There may be some systems out there but using knowledge is the only way keep learning keep praticing
I think we are all guilty of being paranoid as its being a bit wierd that makes us human, not pointing the finger as dont want anyone getting paranoid if that explains it, or us, if you catch my Freudian drift
Find the source of the Nile and I reckon you'll find Moby Dick there chewing up the Holy Grail.
bff is uncapable of response at this time of night, his head is with the fairies at the bottom of his garden now
i had one day where i picked 8 and had a bad day
IF IM CRAP WHY DON T YOU CHALLNEGE ME THEN MUPPET
OH I FORGOT YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT FOOTBALL PRACTICE MAKES PERFECT ONCE I GET BACK INTO THE RYTHEM OF THINGS I WILL SUCEED
IF IM CRAP WHY DON T YOU CHALLNEGE ME THEN MUPPET
OH I FORGOT YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT FOOTBALL PRACTICE MAKES PERFECT ONCE I GET BACK INTO THE RYTHEM OF THINGS I WILL SUCEED
You have an inferiority complex which is made worst by over-belief in your vague actions and plans my revolutionary.
We cant hold your hand and help you win in life, only you can do that my friend
To be fair Dev, your opening salvo was the cry of somebody who loses long-term. And knowing how you used to be, it surprises me not at all to see you in this state today. You can't really be blaming BFF.
YES IM BACK BUT NOW IM LEAVING AS I DONT NEED THIS FORUM I WILL SUCEED
TWO YEARS AGO I WAS KING I WOULD RULED IF I DIDNT GO DOWN THE ROAD OF TRYING TO DVELOP A SYSTEM BUT NOW IM BACK IN THE RIGHT FRAME OF MIND
TWO YEARS ON IM BACK PEOPLE TWO YEARS ON YES FRIDAY I GOT PISSED OFF
BUT NOW I KNOW IM BACK IVE NOTHING TO PROVE TO ANYONE ON HERE BUT MYSELF ONLY I CAN SUCEED ONLY I CAN DO ONLY MY BRAIN CAN DO NO BODY ELSE THE KEY IS THERE IN THE FORM IN THE STUDYING
THE TIME HAS COME
I ONLY GOT ONE SHOT PEOPLE THIS OPPURTUNITY GOES ONCE IN A LIFE TIME ONLY I CAN DO IT http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hO2wA0Te0wM
TWO YEARS AGO I WAS KING I WOULD RULED IF I DIDNT GO DOWN THE ROAD OF TRYING TO DVELOP A SYSTEM BUT NOW IM BACK IN THE RIGHT FRAME OF MIND
TWO YEARS ON IM BACK PEOPLE TWO YEARS ON YES FRIDAY I GOT PISSED OFF
BUT NOW I KNOW IM BACK IVE NOTHING TO PROVE TO ANYONE ON HERE BUT MYSELF ONLY I CAN SUCEED ONLY I CAN DO ONLY MY BRAIN CAN DO NO BODY ELSE THE KEY IS THERE IN THE FORM IN THE STUDYING
THE TIME HAS COME
I ONLY GOT ONE SHOT PEOPLE THIS OPPURTUNITY GOES ONCE IN A LIFE TIME ONLY I CAN DO IT http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hO2wA0Te0wM
True LordBobbin, there are plenty of really good books on gambling and I don't mean the ones that talk about magic systems, I mean the ones wrote by real pro-gamblers, racing managers and others in the industry, don't rely on it happening by magic or all of a sudden, you need to change your understanding of what your doing wrong before you work out whats right to do by following others who have succeeded revolutionary.
I am not trying to have a pop at you just helping with some advice.
I am not trying to have a pop at you just helping with some advice.
Dev, pal, I knew you 2 years ago, and you were *never* King! That's the first misconception you need to fix before you can go on...
And if you want people to listen to you stop using caps lock and rambling, its not good.
devs writing style has changed since the beginning of this thread 
LORDBOBBIN O RARELY BET ALL I HAVE BEEN DOING IS TRYING TO DEVLOP SYSTEMS NONE WORK THE BEST WAY IS TO USE YOUR HEAD I KNOW I AM GOOD AT READING FORM IN FOOTBALL I DONT KNOW WHY I STOIP THIS
I WAS PISSED OFF AT SEEING SO MANY FUNNY RESULTS IN FOOTBALL
BUT I KNOW WHAT TO DO
I HAVE NO INFEROITY COMPLEX IM NOT AFRAID
I WAS PISSED OFF AT SEEING SO MANY FUNNY RESULTS IN FOOTBALL
BUT I KNOW WHAT TO DO
I HAVE NO INFEROITY COMPLEX IM NOT AFRAID
Think you'll find that's because it's turned midnight.
pual me i most go i should only return if i become sucessful theres people on here that dont want me they have in for me
BUT I WILL RISE TO THE TOP REVOLUTION
BUT I WILL RISE TO THE TOP REVOLUTION
Systems are very hard to develop unless you have real expertise. Your best bet is to try and generate various statistics that'll allow you to pinpoint situations where a bet is underpriced or overpriced. Combine that with a general reading of the factors, and you should be onto something.
Two words will spell out what you lack revolutionary, self discipline.
Dev and Pip both have too much adoration for upper case letters.
Lordbobbion although your quite correct, how will he achieve this without self discipline in the first place?
I don't know Dev's MO well enough to know whether he had a self discipline problem. My recollections of him were that he just didn't have a clue how to bet or what he should be betting on or whether he was seeing something that the other people in the market weren't. If he at least has some sort of idea of what he should be looking for, that might allow him to start succeeding. It isn't all about self-discipline, despite what Mark Douglas says.
If you don't have a method for picking out value, you can be a Trappist Monk, with all its built-in discipline, and you still won't be able to make it pay. (Plus you'd be booted out of the abbey for gambling!)
If you don't have a method for picking out value, you can be a Trappist Monk, with all its built-in discipline, and you still won't be able to make it pay. (Plus you'd be booted out of the abbey for gambling!)
Fair point, but most average gamblers live in cloud cuckoo land, they go into bookmakers and use 130% books, plot multiple bets that have a 1 in 30 plus chance of winning or singles, over stake on under priced "good things" that are focused on by bookmakers, and when they lose they bang even more money on even vaguer profitable things and end up in a mess, wheres the self discipline in that?
Only around 3% of gamblers make it pay, and finding good info and formulas to base your betting on still requires discipline to construct, IMO.
Some have asked me why I haven't bet on greyhounds professionally yet, well when I have done enough homework and proven it soundly and evolved the edge I will do, this is self discipline and its what I believe in
Only around 3% of gamblers make it pay, and finding good info and formulas to base your betting on still requires discipline to construct, IMO.
Some have asked me why I haven't bet on greyhounds professionally yet, well when I have done enough homework and proven it soundly and evolved the edge I will do, this is self discipline and its what I believe in
lordbobbin you really havnt got a clue its a learning process if you make money now im 110% sure you didnt start winning instantly
and i do have discpline if i didnt have discpline i would have rosario central as one of my picks but did i pick them no when but my main reason was becuase they lost 2 nil in thier last game on paper they look a very likely to win did i pick them the answer is no becuase of my theorys is i dont pick teams that lost thier last game espeiallt=y ny two goals did i pixk them no even when they look very likely winners
yes value is the key lordboboin as you said systems are very hard to make and using your head is the only way im just going to keep trying hard and trying theres no harm when your paper betting or playin g small stakes like 4 pound or two pound
lordbobbin what sport do u bet on
and i do have discpline if i didnt have discpline i would have rosario central as one of my picks but did i pick them no when but my main reason was becuase they lost 2 nil in thier last game on paper they look a very likely to win did i pick them the answer is no becuase of my theorys is i dont pick teams that lost thier last game espeiallt=y ny two goals did i pixk them no even when they look very likely winners
yes value is the key lordboboin as you said systems are very hard to make and using your head is the only way im just going to keep trying hard and trying theres no harm when your paper betting or playin g small stakes like 4 pound or two pound
lordbobbin what sport do u bet on
and the team i avoided are getting beat now 2-1 and for proof i wenr on to the forum and said i wouldnt get involved with that team
Dev, you say I haven't got a clue. Exactly which parts of my messages have you disagreed with? I wasn't the one saying you didn't have discipline - I said I didn't know whether you had discipline or not!
And no, I obviously didn't start winning immediately. I've been betting on horse racing for several years, and it's only been this year (the last 7 months or so, to be precise) that I've started to make money each week on a more or less consistent basis.
For the record, I think discipline and having a system for knowing what (and when) to bet are both vital. The sort of discipline BFF is talking about (the ability to sit quietly gathering data and nethodically testing theories on paper) is very different from the sort of discipline needed to bet properly. I certainly mastered the first type of discipline more easily than the second type! When BFF finally gets round to having his first bet on Betfair, he may find it trickier then he thinks!
And no, I obviously didn't start winning immediately. I've been betting on horse racing for several years, and it's only been this year (the last 7 months or so, to be precise) that I've started to make money each week on a more or less consistent basis.
For the record, I think discipline and having a system for knowing what (and when) to bet are both vital. The sort of discipline BFF is talking about (the ability to sit quietly gathering data and nethodically testing theories on paper) is very different from the sort of discipline needed to bet properly. I certainly mastered the first type of discipline more easily than the second type! When BFF finally gets round to having his first bet on Betfair, he may find it trickier then he thinks!
It has been rumoured. He tells us he's made sizeable amounts of money going into the bookies, but he's been banned from all of those! Apparently he's developing his system and he won't be betting on BF until he's done that... Quite why he couldn't be taking the same methods he used to win in the bookies and use them to win on Betfair is anyone's guess....
where have i ever said i make money lord bobbin now u are lying to make a story
lordboobin i have betted b4 but i havnt betted in ages
i said there is no sytstems can you read that was my problem i blieve in systems so started searching and trying to develop one when i always knew using my head was the only way
lordboobin i have betted b4 but i havnt betted in ages
i said there is no sytstems can you read that was my problem i blieve in systems so started searching and trying to develop one when i always knew using my head was the only way
i have betted i was betting big on 1.05 shots once won money but got out as i know there was no value in what i was doing long term but i went on an incredible winning streak so i got lucky
and i havnt bet since that and that was like 4 months ago accept for 2 pound bet yesterday as i left ten pound in my acccount to watch bf live video
and i havnt bet since that and that was like 4 months ago accept for 2 pound bet yesterday as i left ten pound in my acccount to watch bf live video
Dev, you do understand that when I talk about 'BFF', I'm not talking about you, don't you?! For the record, I'm very happy to say that I've never said you make money!!
I know you've finally dismissed the idea that you'll be able to come up with a proper mechanical system. I agreed with you on that. Now go and read my 01:52 post again and see if it makes sense this time...
I know you've finally dismissed the idea that you'll be able to come up with a proper mechanical system. I agreed with you on that. Now go and read my 01:52 post again and see if it makes sense this time...
Guess Dev has just answered my first question!
He's the one with the multiple names, and he's getting confused about our terminology. There're only four people here, and two of them are me and you Dev!! And Paul obviously can't be BFF either, since he's referred to somebody else by that name. Got the answer yet???
He's the one with the multiple names, and he's getting confused about our terminology. There're only four people here, and two of them are me and you Dev!! And Paul obviously can't be BFF either, since he's referred to somebody else by that name. Got the answer yet???
100 PERECENT AGREE WITH YOU THERE LORDBOBBIN
WHAT IS YOUR THING BACKING HORSES OR LAYING HORSES
IS BFF BETFAIR FANANTIC IS HE NOT YOUR M8 IM CONFUSED
WHAT IS YOUR THING BACKING HORSES OR LAYING HORSES
IS BFF BETFAIR FANANTIC IS HE NOT YOUR M8 IM CONFUSED
Yes, that's who BFF is! I enjoy his posts, but I'm not sure I'd trust him on actual betting. I see him as being one of those theoretical bettors who's far more interested in betting theory then he is in actual betting. While there's room for a certain amount of theory, I think you need to temper it with hard experience as well. The banks had some of the best financial theoreticians in history, and that's partly what's brought the West to the edge of the financial abyss...
I back in the place markets, and I also lay in the win markets. I virtually never back in the win markets - I've never been able to make that pay.
I back in the place markets, and I also lay in the win markets. I virtually never back in the win markets - I've never been able to make that pay.
TR - you say
THE-REVOLUTIONARY. 20 Sep 11 02:52
where have i ever said i make money lord bobbin now u are lying to make a story
lordboobin i have betted b4 but i havnt betted in ages
i said there is no sytstems can you read that was my problem i blieve in systems so started searching and trying to develop one when i always knew using my head was the only way
===============================================================================================
Maybe with such a simple sport as FOOTBALL can you quickly appraise a game using your head,
However, HORSES is far more complicated than simple FOOTBALL .......and you can't IMO rely on your head to calculations accurately and take all information in that is relevant re RACE TYPE and the point in season....on the GOING in the CLASS of race etc etc etc
If you have the "grail" (never know what correct spelling of this is !)..... re HORSES....it is impossible for the head to do as well as a system of rating a race. IMO
There are more than 100 FACTORS that can come into ratings being reasonable standard ...........
With FOOTBALL ...probably only , at CLUB LEVEL, about ess than 20 factors.....so it is "simpler" to weigh up games....BUT odds are not so good IMO....as the masses bet on FOOTBALL.
THE-REVOLUTIONARY. 20 Sep 11 02:52
where have i ever said i make money lord bobbin now u are lying to make a story
lordboobin i have betted b4 but i havnt betted in ages
i said there is no sytstems can you read that was my problem i blieve in systems so started searching and trying to develop one when i always knew using my head was the only way
===============================================================================================
Maybe with such a simple sport as FOOTBALL can you quickly appraise a game using your head,
However, HORSES is far more complicated than simple FOOTBALL .......and you can't IMO rely on your head to calculations accurately and take all information in that is relevant re RACE TYPE and the point in season....on the GOING in the CLASS of race etc etc etc
If you have the "grail" (never know what correct spelling of this is !)..... re HORSES....it is impossible for the head to do as well as a system of rating a race. IMO
There are more than 100 FACTORS that can come into ratings being reasonable standard ...........
With FOOTBALL ...probably only , at CLUB LEVEL, about ess than 20 factors.....so it is "simpler" to weigh up games....BUT odds are not so good IMO....as the masses bet on FOOTBALL.
do you back favorites to place or higher price horses i think its hard to find value maybe on favorites placing but sometimes there is
LordB,
Youre far too patient and kind for your own good.
Youre far too patient and kind for your own good.
i dont think any horse system can take in all the factors of horse racing right does any system rate the competitiveness of a race plus a big factor in horse racing imo its pace and it is underrated here in ireland and the uk
Dev, I generally look for a horse that I strongly believe to be the best in the race. The vast majority of races I can't find one and pass straight over - even in US racing, with dozens of races a night, I rarely find more than a handful of horses I really like. There are various factors I look for, so it varies from pick to pick. Sometimes I'll be betting on there being a really strong early pace which should set it up nicely for a closing horse. Sometimes I'll just think a horse has superior speed figures and times (consistency is the clue here - several good races in the last four are usually required for me to be interested). Sometimes there'll be a new trainer angle. There are other angles as well, but it's really just looking for a pattern that I know works over time.
Once I've found a horse, I'll look at the odds. I'll generally have an idea of what sort of price I'd be willing to accept and I try my hardest to resist backing below that price. Often the odds will be too short for my liking and I'll pass. Over the course of a night I may find a couple of races that I actually want to play. Quite often I won't even find that many, so I am very picky! Quite often the horses are favourites, but not necessarily. It's more the price that I focus on rather than where the horse is in the betting.
I play a few lays a night, but those usually make less money per bet - the liability will generally be higher than on my place bets, so I keep the stakes smaller there. I do like laying though. In far too many races, there are horses trading at prices they simply can't justify (not necessarily the favourites - I lay lots of horses at prices of 4.0-8.0).
Once I've found a horse, I'll look at the odds. I'll generally have an idea of what sort of price I'd be willing to accept and I try my hardest to resist backing below that price. Often the odds will be too short for my liking and I'll pass. Over the course of a night I may find a couple of races that I actually want to play. Quite often I won't even find that many, so I am very picky! Quite often the horses are favourites, but not necessarily. It's more the price that I focus on rather than where the horse is in the betting.
I play a few lays a night, but those usually make less money per bet - the liability will generally be higher than on my place bets, so I keep the stakes smaller there. I do like laying though. In far too many races, there are horses trading at prices they simply can't justify (not necessarily the favourites - I lay lots of horses at prices of 4.0-8.0).
Thanks Coolhand! I'm sitting here watching Only Connect and University Challenge, so I'm not just concentrating on the forum!!
do u only bet on the us racing i thought i seen u on there forums
Quickly on DFC's systems, I think you need a way of laying out the factors in a way that makes sense to you. I have a couple of programs that take the form for UK and US horses and strip the different factors down to the essentials - calculating pace figures, training figures and the like. A lot of the info I don't want to look at - I simply want to drill down to the bits that I know are important. If I need a more thorough overall picture, I'll look at the form in more depth.
Essentially though, if there are angles I might like to play, I want them to stand out on the page, and my form layout does exactly that for me. If nothing stands out, I'll generally dismiss the race within seconds. That layout and the angles I like to look for are, to me, my 'system'. So to that extent I would recommend that you do have a system. Just not one that goes through the data and comes back with 'Bet on X'. Those kinds of mechanical systems are very hard to come up with.
Essentially though, if there are angles I might like to play, I want them to stand out on the page, and my form layout does exactly that for me. If nothing stands out, I'll generally dismiss the race within seconds. That layout and the angles I like to look for are, to me, my 'system'. So to that extent I would recommend that you do have a system. Just not one that goes through the data and comes back with 'Bet on X'. Those kinds of mechanical systems are very hard to come up with.
Yeah Dev, I do pop up on the forums. However, I'd seriously recommend not posting races on the forums. The problem is that you find yourself spending time analysing whatever races are coming up. And that often means you analyse races you would never have been interested in to begin with. And then you find yourself feeling compelled to take positions on those races, because if you don't, you're essentially dismissing the analysis you just posted up as not being trustworthy... So then you end up losing money on a race you wouldn't usually have even considered betting on. That makes you feel humiliated, so you then go onto the next race and find yourself betting on that one etc.
Don't post selections up on the forum. It'll just get you into bad habits. Play races you feel you've found an angle on, and ignore all the rest. If you go a whole night without placing any bets, so be it.
Don't post selections up on the forum. It'll just get you into bad habits. Play races you feel you've found an angle on, and ignore all the rest. If you go a whole night without placing any bets, so be it.
yes i agree on tha lod i dont think theres any mechanical systems like if horse a won last time out withing 21 days and is starting favorite in a race with 8-10 runners back it to place i dont believe in that
i believe you mind becomes a system over time your mid will tell you when to leave a race its like mind training
i believe you mind becomes a system over time your mid will tell you when to leave a race its like mind training
yes theres no point betting becuase its man united v arsenal if you cant find a reason to make a dicison based on value no bet
thats why i didnt understand all these guys getting into a frenzy over cheltenham its great competitive racing as thier all championship races but is it good from a betting perspective in your opionion
thats why i didnt understand all these guys getting into a frenzy over cheltenham its great competitive racing as thier all championship races but is it good from a betting perspective in your opionion
No Dev, you're right there. A sizeable layoff can be a reason for looking more closely at a horse (either for laying or for backing), but you'd always be looking for other factors too. I think you need to rely more on a gut feeling than anything - factors X, Y and Z are interesting, so I believe this horse is worth betting on etc. That gut feeling tends to become more accurate the better you get at analysing the factors.
Cheltenham is a gamblers' graveyard. The bookies love it because all sorts of punters get sucked into the hype. The odd wise head will look for a few value bets and play just those. Most of us should simply stay away though.
Personally I try to bet on the big races as little as possible. I find the form much easier to read on the low value stuff. Who cares about the quality of the race as long as we're making a good bet??
Personally I try to bet on the big races as little as possible. I find the form much easier to read on the low value stuff. Who cares about the quality of the race as long as we're making a good bet??
Yeah when i was looking at horse racing i find the group races hard i couldnt rule out any horse with lower value races sometimes you get horse that just look far superior than the field
Yeah, you do. If you wait for the few times you're getting good odds on them then there's plenty to be made that way.
ok good luck thanks for the chat lordbobbin you have woken me up ill not be on here as much anymore because whats the point if i should looking at form and factors anyway u have woken me up and made me relise that to win you must put hard work in and its still no gaurentee to win but first u must work hard thank you
Yeah, analysing each factor is the key. Good luck Dev. Come back when you're good and winning!
'Quickly on DFC's systems, I think you need a way of laying out the factors in a way that makes sense to you. I have a couple of programs that take the form for UK and US horses and strip the different factors down to the essentials - calculating pace figures, training figures and the like. A lot of the info I don't want to look at - I simply want to drill down to the bits that I know are important. If I need a more thorough overall picture, I'll look at the form in more depth. '
LordBobbin, how do you get the form into your own programs so that you can customise it? I'm no good with programming/techie stuff but i know people who are (non-racing/betting people) and i've often wondered how i could go about this. Is it possible to customise racecards to show the factors i want to see rather than the standard racecards, for instance. Thanks for any help.
LordBobbin, how do you get the form into your own programs so that you can customise it? I'm no good with programming/techie stuff but i know people who are (non-racing/betting people) and i've often wondered how i could go about this. Is it possible to customise racecards to show the factors i want to see rather than the standard racecards, for instance. Thanks for any help.
If you want to make money without thinking much then act and think like a bookmaker, pick up some papers, Racing post and find out what the likely strong fancies of the day will be as this is what the bookies do, then highlight them if you feel the forecast sp looks very skinny, chances are it will be under-priced as all the chomps in the bookies will be sticking them in there yankees and bets of the day, then all this runs of money will filter down to the bookies HQ and they will send there little
boys at the track to use office money to send the price even lower, then you lay it when its at its lowest price near they off and hey presto, your are a bookmaker, derr can it be any simpler than that.
boys at the track to use office money to send the price even lower, then you lay it when its at its lowest price near they off and hey presto, your are a bookmaker, derr can it be any simpler than that.
GET it on my son and fill your satchel and your boots.
duncan idaho 20 Sep 11 06:48
'Quickly on DFC's systems, I think you need a way of laying out the factors in a way that makes sense to you. I have a couple of programs that take the form for UK and US horses and strip the different factors down to the essentials - calculating pace figures, training figures and the like. A lot of the info I don't want to look at - I simply want to drill down to the bits that I know are important. If I need a more thorough overall picture, I'll look at the form in more depth. '
LordBobbin, how do you get the form into your own programs so that you can customise it? I'm no good with programming/techie stuff but i know people who are (non-racing/betting people) and i've often wondered how i could go about this. Is it possible to customise racecards to show the factors i want to see rather than the standard racecards, for instance. Thanks for any help
====================================================================
DI - You can download race card from SL site using a specifically devised program that can then be used to transfer data into a database etc. I got a friend who created a program to do so ( I am not technically minded re programs etc .....but that is what I believe he did)
Using a USB device, the data is then entered into the database using a program he again devised for me to click on for that day race card.
The horse race system then allocates points for each race to every horse automatically when I click on a box. So the basic "form" ( race history for last set number of races.......together with C,D, C&D etc etc details ....) is dealt with using points for each factor relevant to basic "form" off the card.
It also automatically allocates points for trainers ( database within the system...that can be updated) and other relevant factors just using the race card format.
So much of the boring stuff is dealt with , including some complicated factors that friend has devised the database programs to do automatically when I click one button etc.
The system then allows me to click on boxes against any horse that deserves points for a number of FACTORS that require subjective input. There are a number of columns for each factor at top of page etc.
I think it would be very very difficult to devise programs to do the "subjective" part...................Would be extremely time consuming to have databases within the system for certain factors!!!.....So much easier for me to click on BOXES against horses that qualify for more points etc etc
It might take me up to 5 minutes to tick boxes etc.....but once boxes are ticked ....i just click on another box and points are again automatically allocated for the boxes ticked. HORSES are then shown in rated order etc.
After taking years to get the friend to do above for free, it then has taken me years just to analyse ratings/results....mull over results etc etc.....but all been worthwhile exercise.
need to go help in house
cheers the noooooo ...and trust above helps a bit.
'Quickly on DFC's systems, I think you need a way of laying out the factors in a way that makes sense to you. I have a couple of programs that take the form for UK and US horses and strip the different factors down to the essentials - calculating pace figures, training figures and the like. A lot of the info I don't want to look at - I simply want to drill down to the bits that I know are important. If I need a more thorough overall picture, I'll look at the form in more depth. '
LordBobbin, how do you get the form into your own programs so that you can customise it? I'm no good with programming/techie stuff but i know people who are (non-racing/betting people) and i've often wondered how i could go about this. Is it possible to customise racecards to show the factors i want to see rather than the standard racecards, for instance. Thanks for any help
====================================================================
DI - You can download race card from SL site using a specifically devised program that can then be used to transfer data into a database etc. I got a friend who created a program to do so ( I am not technically minded re programs etc .....but that is what I believe he did)
Using a USB device, the data is then entered into the database using a program he again devised for me to click on for that day race card.
The horse race system then allocates points for each race to every horse automatically when I click on a box. So the basic "form" ( race history for last set number of races.......together with C,D, C&D etc etc details ....) is dealt with using points for each factor relevant to basic "form" off the card.
It also automatically allocates points for trainers ( database within the system...that can be updated) and other relevant factors just using the race card format.
So much of the boring stuff is dealt with , including some complicated factors that friend has devised the database programs to do automatically when I click one button etc.
The system then allows me to click on boxes against any horse that deserves points for a number of FACTORS that require subjective input. There are a number of columns for each factor at top of page etc.
I think it would be very very difficult to devise programs to do the "subjective" part...................Would be extremely time consuming to have databases within the system for certain factors!!!.....So much easier for me to click on BOXES against horses that qualify for more points etc etc
It might take me up to 5 minutes to tick boxes etc.....but once boxes are ticked ....i just click on another box and points are again automatically allocated for the boxes ticked. HORSES are then shown in rated order etc.
After taking years to get the friend to do above for free, it then has taken me years just to analyse ratings/results....mull over results etc etc.....but all been worthwhile exercise.
need to go help in house
cheers the noooooo ...and trust above helps a bit.
"...but all been worthwhile exercise." ==> from which point of view, DFC? At the first glance your "system" does not look to be very profitable ... or am I wrong?
"First glance" means little A..........
You have to analyse hundreds of races ...rate over 10,000 horses...detail results ( when i say "detail" ..........that is fairly comprehensive detail!). Gain a deep understanding of what the system does, then seek the VALUE from it using a constant way of doing it!
Check the post on other thread re RACE 1....for LAYING purpose, where "VALUE" /RANK of horse in ratings/MARKET ODDS enable the selection of 1 horse to lay in WIN market.
Apply what I posted to other races where 10 runners ( it works that day with races with less runners, but generally works well where 10 or more).
Cursory glances mean nothing.........
BTW no horse will be layed where odds are 10-1 SP in a race of less than 21 runners.........
Gotta go find nap for competition.......Cheers the nooooooooooooo
You have to analyse hundreds of races ...rate over 10,000 horses...detail results ( when i say "detail" ..........that is fairly comprehensive detail!). Gain a deep understanding of what the system does, then seek the VALUE from it using a constant way of doing it!
Check the post on other thread re RACE 1....for LAYING purpose, where "VALUE" /RANK of horse in ratings/MARKET ODDS enable the selection of 1 horse to lay in WIN market.
Apply what I posted to other races where 10 runners ( it works that day with races with less runners, but generally works well where 10 or more).
Cursory glances mean nothing.........
BTW no horse will be layed where odds are 10-1 SP in a race of less than 21 runners.........
Gotta go find nap for competition.......Cheers the nooooooooooooo
Duncan, it depends on the service you use. All you really need to be able to do is to take the relevant information from the race card and drop it into some kind of text file. If you've got the race card up on a web browser, you can cut and paste it into a text file by hand, for instance. Some services (the Daily Racing Form in the US, for instance) will provide you with their own program that automatically downloads the relevant data into a file for you.
Once you've got the racing form in a text file, you can then do pretty much anything with it you want. You can do numerous calculations on any figure, create averages, rank things in order of certain factors etc. You can choose which factors you want to display, how many races you want to cover, omit certain types of race altogether etc. Obviously, if you want to turn the form into fancy graphs and things, you'll need some decent programming skills. Otherwise, a working knowledge of variables and arrays, loops and file handling is all you really need. I use Visual Basic, which is pretty old fashioned (especially my version!!), and my programming skills are primitive, to say the least. However, even these basic skills are enough for me to take the racing form and instantly create statistics and figures that would take me hours and hours to do by hand.
If you've got an idea of what it is you want to do, you could enlist the help of a friend, as DFC has done. However, this is quite limiting. I'm often thinking of new things that I want to try out for a bit. If I had to go back to my friend and get him to tweak the code every time something occurred to me, I'd be barred within a few weeks! I'd seriously recommend getting a programming language and a How-To book, and teaching yourself how to program. It probably won't take you long to get the essentials nailed down, and once you've taught yourself, you'll be surprised how often you want to knock up a simple program to try out a simple theory - whether related to betting or not!
Once you've got the racing form in a text file, you can then do pretty much anything with it you want. You can do numerous calculations on any figure, create averages, rank things in order of certain factors etc. You can choose which factors you want to display, how many races you want to cover, omit certain types of race altogether etc. Obviously, if you want to turn the form into fancy graphs and things, you'll need some decent programming skills. Otherwise, a working knowledge of variables and arrays, loops and file handling is all you really need. I use Visual Basic, which is pretty old fashioned (especially my version!!), and my programming skills are primitive, to say the least. However, even these basic skills are enough for me to take the racing form and instantly create statistics and figures that would take me hours and hours to do by hand.
If you've got an idea of what it is you want to do, you could enlist the help of a friend, as DFC has done. However, this is quite limiting. I'm often thinking of new things that I want to try out for a bit. If I had to go back to my friend and get him to tweak the code every time something occurred to me, I'd be barred within a few weeks! I'd seriously recommend getting a programming language and a How-To book, and teaching yourself how to program. It probably won't take you long to get the essentials nailed down, and once you've taught yourself, you'll be surprised how often you want to knock up a simple program to try out a simple theory - whether related to betting or not!
Stats yes can be useful, but can mislead. If a team win 2-0 in last game you look at stat and see they win but maybe they score lucky goal? I believe very much in ture form and stat form. The only way you see true form is by watching game and game and game, yes it can be boring. If you like football so much, as a start point, pick one league this season and only bet on this league, learn this league and every player. Watch the game, watch highlight, learn the team, the manager, how he acts in situation of different game. Learn inside out, who make the team play etc........,
eg. that playmaker in centre pitch is main player who is out injured. He is very clever passer who can make the great play, the player come in for him, can he do the same? if you watch enough game and see how a team function you can see better picture if the team can still perform.
I do this for Italian football, this is a level I play for. To have idea of every manager (hard to learn in Italy as sacked every week), player and importance to side
Keep record of evry game you watch, write notes, who play well, who is important. build up infos on everything. Use this to take into next game
EG Roma
Roma have team in progress but now are not showing level or team play to reach potential right now. Mug punter will see Roma on coupon and see short odds, sure win..right?
Wrong! Now roma have not correct balance or understanding in side yet. Against small team like Cagliari who defend and Roma expect to smash, roma pass, pass, pass, no finish moves. They are open to counter attack and get beat in a game they dominate.
Agianst Inter away, a different game plan to Cagliari and a game which Roma must defend and counter. If Roma had a ready team they could have beat Inter but they are not at that level yet. We draw 0-0.
average punter will see next game at home to Siena. They may look at Inter result and think, Roma have improve to bet on, they must beat Siena, who is Siena? but Siena will come to play like Cagliari and how can we be sure Roma have learned the system to create chances, the movement etc when all we have to go on is Cagliari match.
Sorry for long post but I hope you get to see what I say. I am saying this because I see you talk about world football, yes it would be good to know many leagues but I think you should league a few inside out than just look at number stats of all league
eg. that playmaker in centre pitch is main player who is out injured. He is very clever passer who can make the great play, the player come in for him, can he do the same? if you watch enough game and see how a team function you can see better picture if the team can still perform.
I do this for Italian football, this is a level I play for. To have idea of every manager (hard to learn in Italy as sacked every week), player and importance to side
Keep record of evry game you watch, write notes, who play well, who is important. build up infos on everything. Use this to take into next game
EG Roma
Roma have team in progress but now are not showing level or team play to reach potential right now. Mug punter will see Roma on coupon and see short odds, sure win..right?
Wrong! Now roma have not correct balance or understanding in side yet. Against small team like Cagliari who defend and Roma expect to smash, roma pass, pass, pass, no finish moves. They are open to counter attack and get beat in a game they dominate.
Agianst Inter away, a different game plan to Cagliari and a game which Roma must defend and counter. If Roma had a ready team they could have beat Inter but they are not at that level yet. We draw 0-0.
average punter will see next game at home to Siena. They may look at Inter result and think, Roma have improve to bet on, they must beat Siena, who is Siena? but Siena will come to play like Cagliari and how can we be sure Roma have learned the system to create chances, the movement etc when all we have to go on is Cagliari match.
Sorry for long post but I hope you get to see what I say. I am saying this because I see you talk about world football, yes it would be good to know many leagues but I think you should league a few inside out than just look at number stats of all league
I see him as being one of those theoretical bettors who's far more interested in betting theory then he is in actual betting.
agree. again beautifully put.
LB do use relatively large stakes when you find a horse you like in the place market then?
agree. again beautifully put.
LB do use relatively large stakes when you find a horse you like in the place market then?
Relatively large for me. It usually takes several successful lays to add up to one place bet.
what about that £850 i put on maunsells duke to place? anywhere near that big?
Now is that the 200th time I have heard about Maunsell's Duke ....
haha he replies to that. strange fruit you are undern. i think it may be time for a greggs...
DFCIRONMAN and LordBobbin, thanks v much for the replies. LordB, i'm afraid if you're programming skills are primitive, mine are positively neanderthal 
...not sure when i'll be able to teach myself how to program, as i still need to get to grips with Excel first!
Really all i want in the short term is to customise racecards so that i can discard stuff like C (course) and D (distance) symbols and include the last 6 ORs for each horse and the last 6 pace figs i have for each horse (plus the ability to flag up if i've noted horses to be B2L (Back to Lay) or L2B propositions). Not too bothered about crunching numbers and systems...i had Raceform Interactive for a couple of years and used the query database lots but found that even some of the positive findings just bogged me down when it came to day-to-day racing...there's too much to cover as it is and i'm primarily a racereader/form man.
Thanks again for sparing the time. duncan
...not sure when i'll be able to teach myself how to program, as i still need to get to grips with Excel first! Really all i want in the short term is to customise racecards so that i can discard stuff like C (course) and D (distance) symbols and include the last 6 ORs for each horse and the last 6 pace figs i have for each horse (plus the ability to flag up if i've noted horses to be B2L (Back to Lay) or L2B propositions). Not too bothered about crunching numbers and systems...i had Raceform Interactive for a couple of years and used the query database lots but found that even some of the positive findings just bogged me down when it came to day-to-day racing...there's too much to cover as it is and i'm primarily a racereader/form man.
Thanks again for sparing the time. duncan
I hate Excel too! Visual Basic is definitely more fun. (And yes, I know Excel is partially based on VB, but it lacks the fun bits as far as I'm concerned!)
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