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thnx for the help of a newbie, and please only serious replies :)
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Not to play at all I suspect. Probably not what you want to hear, but when the dice are loaded against you...
Still plenty of inefficient markets on here to find. Steer clear of this trap and look elsewhere.
my advice for a newbie is dont play in running at all
take a position before the race - then green up in running. easy
no shame in that freddie, take it on the chin and move on
Ahista-
DONT DO IT! Find a way to lose your money more slowly.
This is a serious posting.
Good luck!
DONT DO IT! Find a way to lose your money more slowly.
This is a serious posting.
Good luck!
Listen to Slicer. The good Doctor is rarely wrong....
then what speaks against noukari`s approach/advise of taking prerace-positions and greening out inrunning? any opinions/exoerience...?
If the price moves against you you wont be able to green out.
That way is a trading method. You will find that you need to steak a lot more to win little. Get it wrong a few times and you will do your monet.
Best to leave it to the BetFair Sharks wot is circling around just after the "off" waiting for morsels like you!
Heed my words well!
That way is a trading method. You will find that you need to steak a lot more to win little. Get it wrong a few times and you will do your monet.
Best to leave it to the BetFair Sharks wot is circling around just after the "off" waiting for morsels like you!
Heed my words well!
...in bed, with a ****, champagne and the computer and television both turned off, same return, more fun.
take a position before the race - then green up in running. easy
ahista...the statement above is the sort of rubbish that gets novices sucked in
An in running bet doesnt become value because it enables you to green up and vice versa. Each bet must stand on its own merit and you are at an inherent disavantage if you bet in running on unmanaged markets where the actual chances of runners changes quickly and you are delayed seeing the action. Don't let the fact that you've backed someat at a better price sway your judgement.
ahista...the statement above is the sort of rubbish that gets novices sucked in
An in running bet doesnt become value because it enables you to green up and vice versa. Each bet must stand on its own merit and you are at an inherent disavantage if you bet in running on unmanaged markets where the actual chances of runners changes quickly and you are delayed seeing the action. Don't let the fact that you've backed someat at a better price sway your judgement.
^this ignores the fact that the IR market is markedly more imperfect than the pre-race market....when you back a horse at, say, 10 pre-race cos you're confident it will trade as low as 4.0-5.0 IR, it doesnt matter whether you're getting matched at 4.7 when some poor judges are backing it at 3.3...it's not possible or necessary to land it on the head of a pin, so to speak.
hi duncan....does your message imply that the approach of taking a position prerace to green up inrunning is a viable method or not?
it can be if you're a good enough judge....i would say it is not as easy in practice as it might seem in theory, tho....there was a pundit on RUK last week saying Toby Tyler at Redcar was a good Back to Lay bet as it tended to get behind early...BSP was 6.something and afterwards they were patting him on the back cos it had tchd 9s before winning....however, the horse never went any bigger than 7.0 for first 4f (6f race) and anyone having placed the bet for that reason would have been looking at taking a hit or been trying to get out before it hit 9 for a few quid in final furlong.
When doing this you have to look at the race as a whole rather than simply study a horse's running style....some races see half the field go low whereas in others nothing other than the winner may go lower than its BSP if winner makes all or always travelling clear best.
When doing this you have to look at the race as a whole rather than simply study a horse's running style....some races see half the field go low whereas in others nothing other than the winner may go lower than its BSP if winner makes all or always travelling clear best.
ahista you are only listening to what you want to hear
wrong clyde, the old romans said "audiatur et altera pars", what means as much as listen to what both sides have to say and draw your own conclusions...i guess the truth lies somewhere inbetween, as is so often the case
Ahista, I think the short (and polite!) answer to your question is, as Duncan Idaho has said, yes it is possible to make money playing inrunning. However, you, as a self-confessed newbie, shouldn't be trying to do so, since you're very unlikely to have the necessary judgement at this point.
Here's a longer answer...
If you've got plenty of experience and can make a fairly accurate stab as to what a horse's price ought to be just before the off, and can also estimate what price the horse should be at during the early stages of the race itself (based on the start the horse has made, how this compares to how the horse usually runs early on in races at a similar distance, the pace of the race etc.), then it should be possible to find value.
Some horses will seem to be toiling early on. But if you know that horse always looks as though it's toiling in the first few furlongs, then you may be able to get a good value price on it. However, you'd have to have some idea of what a fair price for that horse should be at that moment. It's not enough simply to think 'it's at the back of the field, therefore the market will be discounting its chances and the price must be good value'.
Likewise, another horse may get a strong start and be pushed down in the betting. If you know that the pace is hot and that horse is likely to fade later on, you might be able to lay at a good price. Again, you need to have an idea as to what the fair price ought to be for that horse based on how things are going. And you also need to be able to calculate what the early pace is and what this is likely to mean for the race's closing stages.
If the early pace is very hot, the horses near the front are likely to tire, allowing those who were running at a comfortable pace at the back of the pack to gun them down late on. On the other hand, if the pace is slow, the horses at the front will probably be able to plod on and stay in front - the horses at the back won't be able to make up ground quickly enough to cut out the early lead that the frontrunners were allowed to gain. Most races fall somewhere between the two, but if you can identify when the early pace is either extremely fast or extremely slow, you'll be onto something.
However, you, as a newbie, are unlikely to be able to judge these things accurately enough to know when you're being offered value and when you're not. If you watch as many races as you can, and keep extensive notes on the horses and their running styles (and preferably their odds at various points in the race), and sit there with a stopwatch timing parts of the races, you might be able to start getting an idea. Particularly if you combine this with a bit of solid form analysis as well. But you shouldn't expect to be able to acquire these skills quickly! The more races you watch and study, the better your instincts will become, but don't become discouraged if you don't seem able to make sense of it for a while..
What you shouldn't do, as a newbie, is wait until the race seems 'clear' to you. Almost inevitably, this'll entail you betting on horses in the closing stages. And at that point you'll be at a big diasdvantage to the fast pics players. If a horse is gathering strength, his price will almost certainly have fallen significantly between you placing the bet and the bet actually being matched (or not). In practice, you'll simply be chasing the money of the pros. And, as a newbie, you don't want to be doing that!
Here's a longer answer...
If you've got plenty of experience and can make a fairly accurate stab as to what a horse's price ought to be just before the off, and can also estimate what price the horse should be at during the early stages of the race itself (based on the start the horse has made, how this compares to how the horse usually runs early on in races at a similar distance, the pace of the race etc.), then it should be possible to find value.
Some horses will seem to be toiling early on. But if you know that horse always looks as though it's toiling in the first few furlongs, then you may be able to get a good value price on it. However, you'd have to have some idea of what a fair price for that horse should be at that moment. It's not enough simply to think 'it's at the back of the field, therefore the market will be discounting its chances and the price must be good value'.
Likewise, another horse may get a strong start and be pushed down in the betting. If you know that the pace is hot and that horse is likely to fade later on, you might be able to lay at a good price. Again, you need to have an idea as to what the fair price ought to be for that horse based on how things are going. And you also need to be able to calculate what the early pace is and what this is likely to mean for the race's closing stages.
If the early pace is very hot, the horses near the front are likely to tire, allowing those who were running at a comfortable pace at the back of the pack to gun them down late on. On the other hand, if the pace is slow, the horses at the front will probably be able to plod on and stay in front - the horses at the back won't be able to make up ground quickly enough to cut out the early lead that the frontrunners were allowed to gain. Most races fall somewhere between the two, but if you can identify when the early pace is either extremely fast or extremely slow, you'll be onto something.
However, you, as a newbie, are unlikely to be able to judge these things accurately enough to know when you're being offered value and when you're not. If you watch as many races as you can, and keep extensive notes on the horses and their running styles (and preferably their odds at various points in the race), and sit there with a stopwatch timing parts of the races, you might be able to start getting an idea. Particularly if you combine this with a bit of solid form analysis as well. But you shouldn't expect to be able to acquire these skills quickly! The more races you watch and study, the better your instincts will become, but don't become discouraged if you don't seem able to make sense of it for a while..
What you shouldn't do, as a newbie, is wait until the race seems 'clear' to you. Almost inevitably, this'll entail you betting on horses in the closing stages. And at that point you'll be at a big diasdvantage to the fast pics players. If a horse is gathering strength, his price will almost certainly have fallen significantly between you placing the bet and the bet actually being matched (or not). In practice, you'll simply be chasing the money of the pros. And, as a newbie, you don't want to be doing that!
A comprehensive and most useful post Lord Bobbin...thanks alot...are u an inrunning player yourself..and how long did it take you to crack it (if so) 
....
....
Cracked it would definitely be an overstatement! I have got to the stage where I can generally win a modest amount per week though, so hopefully it's just a matter of gradually raising my stakes and remaining disciplined!
I don't do in-running myself, mostly because the majority of my experience has come on the US Racing markets, where you can't do in-running. However, I do pay great attention to the pace of races, and there have been plenty of cases where I've been able to identify horses that seem to be struggling but which I know will be coming good by the closing stages. And other horses which look like they're well placed, but which have put in too much running early on. I suspect I could have found some value bets had there been in-running available.
Recently I've been turning my attention towards UK racing, and I'm already starting to get the feel for identifying the pace horses and the closers. And I have noticed several cases where a horse's odds went significantly out early on just because he was running along at the tail of the field, even though my notes suggested this would be exactly how he would run. I don't have the financial proof yet, but I'm reasonably certain that there's money to be made this way.
Having said that, I have been studying horse racing for several years. And while I've always understood the ideas behind race pace (Tom Brohamer's book, Modern Pace Handicapping, was an early read of mine - and still an excellent book to get, if a little US-centric for your needs), it's only been in the last year that I've really been able to find practical ways of measuring pace and identifying it accurately. And it took me a further six months to hone those tools so that I could make real money with them. Again, I wouldn't say it's something for newbies, although if you can teach yourself early on to recognise running styles and measure pace, you'll be setting yourself up well.
I don't do in-running myself, mostly because the majority of my experience has come on the US Racing markets, where you can't do in-running. However, I do pay great attention to the pace of races, and there have been plenty of cases where I've been able to identify horses that seem to be struggling but which I know will be coming good by the closing stages. And other horses which look like they're well placed, but which have put in too much running early on. I suspect I could have found some value bets had there been in-running available.
Recently I've been turning my attention towards UK racing, and I'm already starting to get the feel for identifying the pace horses and the closers. And I have noticed several cases where a horse's odds went significantly out early on just because he was running along at the tail of the field, even though my notes suggested this would be exactly how he would run. I don't have the financial proof yet, but I'm reasonably certain that there's money to be made this way.
Having said that, I have been studying horse racing for several years. And while I've always understood the ideas behind race pace (Tom Brohamer's book, Modern Pace Handicapping, was an early read of mine - and still an excellent book to get, if a little US-centric for your needs), it's only been in the last year that I've really been able to find practical ways of measuring pace and identifying it accurately. And it took me a further six months to hone those tools so that I could make real money with them. Again, I wouldn't say it's something for newbies, although if you can teach yourself early on to recognise running styles and measure pace, you'll be setting yourself up well.
'it's only been in the last year that I've really been able to find practical ways of measuring pace and identifying it accurately.'
Could you elaborate on that, LordBobbin? Understand if you dont wish to.
Could you elaborate on that, LordBobbin? Understand if you dont wish to.
To be honest Duncan, I think I'd rather not. If there's one area where I think I'm able to see things that the people who typically make up the market can't, it's with regards to pace analysis. I do tend to be quite blabby, and here it's most definitely not in my interests to be risking giving a clued-in player a tidbit they can work on! It probably wouldn't make any difference, since I'm sure you'd find different ways of analysing the information I use, but I'm sure you understand that I don't want to take any risk..
Nae bother, LordBobbin...I would do exactly the same in your situation but as pace is one of my main angles i thought i would enquire. Good luck.
i do most of my bets i-r and dont have fast pics!
as i say to everyone why not take ADVANTAGE of bigger prices i-r about your selection!!
if people only back PRE RACE anyway, they have no control over their selection so if its going to lose its going to trade bigger and lose regardless. if its going to win, its also going to trade bigger (practically always unless its perhaps a front runner and far superior to anything else in the race) and go on to win!!
so why not avail of bigger prices? the i-r market doesnt always represent the chances of a horse accurately either and i have no doubt that people with fast pics are laying prices that are higher than its actual chance of winning as they are just itching to do so in most cases tbh! a shake of the reins, a slight push and all of a sudden u get a spike, its madness!
im no pro in all honestly but i can never understand why people dont have a little put up pre race at higher odds on a selection they like, esp if theres likes to be held up out the back as it is invariably going to meet some kind of traffic problem, in most cases anyway! so just because you bet pre race it doesnt give your horse a better chance of winning, it only means u cannot take adantage of the higger i-r odds being offered, often bigger than the horses ACTUAL chance of winning! thats just my opinion, look at any horse u fancy today and see if it traded bigger i-r, the hard part is sweating it out as u see yours drift i-r!!
this is based on form study (obviously) and having a strong opinion PRE RACE and not just betting blind i-r which is just silly! obviously the same goes for laying , horses will also invariably trade shorter than their actual chance of winning , often seeing 1.01 shots that were never in front or horse that make the running but set off far too quickly a la tom o ryan in that 'legends' race the other day who thought he was on frankel and actually traded about the 4/1 mark (i think) when after a couple furlongs it was quite obvious he had gone to fast!
all the best!
gl
as i say to everyone why not take ADVANTAGE of bigger prices i-r about your selection!!
if people only back PRE RACE anyway, they have no control over their selection so if its going to lose its going to trade bigger and lose regardless. if its going to win, its also going to trade bigger (practically always unless its perhaps a front runner and far superior to anything else in the race) and go on to win!!
so why not avail of bigger prices? the i-r market doesnt always represent the chances of a horse accurately either and i have no doubt that people with fast pics are laying prices that are higher than its actual chance of winning as they are just itching to do so in most cases tbh! a shake of the reins, a slight push and all of a sudden u get a spike, its madness!
im no pro in all honestly but i can never understand why people dont have a little put up pre race at higher odds on a selection they like, esp if theres likes to be held up out the back as it is invariably going to meet some kind of traffic problem, in most cases anyway! so just because you bet pre race it doesnt give your horse a better chance of winning, it only means u cannot take adantage of the higger i-r odds being offered, often bigger than the horses ACTUAL chance of winning! thats just my opinion, look at any horse u fancy today and see if it traded bigger i-r, the hard part is sweating it out as u see yours drift i-r!!
this is based on form study (obviously) and having a strong opinion PRE RACE and not just betting blind i-r which is just silly! obviously the same goes for laying , horses will also invariably trade shorter than their actual chance of winning , often seeing 1.01 shots that were never in front or horse that make the running but set off far too quickly a la tom o ryan in that 'legends' race the other day who thought he was on frankel and actually traded about the 4/1 mark (i think) when after a couple furlongs it was quite obvious he had gone to fast!
all the best!
gl
Tues 13th: winner failed to trade more than 1 pt higher IR than BSP in 10 of 21 UK races.
obviously you wont get matched all the time (depending how high the stake is u put up i-r). also you are probably less likely to have huge spikes in price in small fields as layers can see exactly whats happening and its a lot easier to see how the race is panning out! but even the ones that didnt trade a point bigger, thy did trade slightly bigger than the bsp. this is just my way of thinking, horses generally win or lose will trade bigger than sp.
also one of the winners was bsp of 60 so people taking the sp in this case arent gonna look to have stakes matched bigger i-r as horses this price only tend to go one way if they are travelling well!
i mean if i fancy an odds on shot at lets say 1.5 i will almost always have something up at about 1.8, 2.0 and slightly bigger depending on where it is in the field, if its a front runner im unlikely to get matched unless its getting hassled for the lead or it looks to have gone too fast/ not settling etc..
obviously im not always gonna get matched but im just giving an example of how i-r betting can be used without it being a fast pic layers dream! i guess it depends on the person but i dont mind some of my stake not being matched if my horse goes on to win. i take it on the chin, i didnt lose anything so im happy but its always v sweet when u can nick some 2/1 i-r on an even money shot because if this happens, as far as im concerned, if it was an even money shot to start, it was still going to trade 2/1 but the diff is i was able to avail of the bigger price!
if it continued to drift out to 1000 and get beat, thats life, if i was to not bet i-r my full bet pre race wouldve lost anyway!
also one of the winners was bsp of 60 so people taking the sp in this case arent gonna look to have stakes matched bigger i-r as horses this price only tend to go one way if they are travelling well!
i mean if i fancy an odds on shot at lets say 1.5 i will almost always have something up at about 1.8, 2.0 and slightly bigger depending on where it is in the field, if its a front runner im unlikely to get matched unless its getting hassled for the lead or it looks to have gone too fast/ not settling etc..
obviously im not always gonna get matched but im just giving an example of how i-r betting can be used without it being a fast pic layers dream! i guess it depends on the person but i dont mind some of my stake not being matched if my horse goes on to win. i take it on the chin, i didnt lose anything so im happy but its always v sweet when u can nick some 2/1 i-r on an even money shot because if this happens, as far as im concerned, if it was an even money shot to start, it was still going to trade 2/1 but the diff is i was able to avail of the bigger price!
if it continued to drift out to 1000 and get beat, thats life, if i was to not bet i-r my full bet pre race wouldve lost anyway!
'but even the ones that didnt trade a point bigger, thy did trade slightly bigger than the bsp. '
Some did, not all...but if you want to back a horse, what is the point of risking leaving it unbacked just for the sake of half a point extra?
Some did, not all...but if you want to back a horse, what is the point of risking leaving it unbacked just for the sake of half a point extra?
i think its fair to sy most will trade bigger than sp i-r, over 90%.
it just depends on the type of margins youre working under, i.e putting in unrealistically high prices for horses with a strong chance!
theres a thread on the main forum stating that timeforms i-r prices put up on their website are inaccurate as one bloke had a bet matched at 1.4+ and timeform said it traded at a low of 1.6 and he even said he was sure it traded a lot lowerthan that so perhaps the website is unreliable!
it just depends on the type of margins youre working under, i.e putting in unrealistically high prices for horses with a strong chance!
theres a thread on the main forum stating that timeforms i-r prices put up on their website are inaccurate as one bloke had a bet matched at 1.4+ and timeform said it traded at a low of 1.6 and he even said he was sure it traded a lot lowerthan that so perhaps the website is unreliable!
I think some of the i/r lows recorded on horses are wrong in both the Timeform and BF data. Perhaps it is the cross matcher having an effect on the data they record. Plus not every winner trades at 1.01 which is also an assumption they have for every winner in the historical data.
How will the cross-matcher affect this data provided? I think the only way that it impacts on IR prices is to reduce horses being laid at even lower prices.
It could be that there has to be a minimum amount matched at a given price for it be the one provided in the database.
Also the historical data doesn't assume every winner trades at 1.01, for winner only the highest price traded is given. Interestingly in a maiden at Haydock a couple of days ago, i'd laid the field at 1.5 and downwards, but wasn't matched on the winner (Hannons horse) because it only went down to 1.57IR, coming very late to win on the nod: the photo result must have been called almost immediately since the market wasn't reopened for photo betting.
It could be that there has to be a minimum amount matched at a given price for it be the one provided in the database.
Also the historical data doesn't assume every winner trades at 1.01, for winner only the highest price traded is given. Interestingly in a maiden at Haydock a couple of days ago, i'd laid the field at 1.5 and downwards, but wasn't matched on the winner (Hannons horse) because it only went down to 1.57IR, coming very late to win on the nod: the photo result must have been called almost immediately since the market wasn't reopened for photo betting.
It could be that the low odds noted for a runner if they are a product of cross matching on the other runners don't get collected properly? I don't really know but there are definitely times when the low price of a horse reached is not the same as reality.
Well a - for low price of each winner when you look at results to me implies that 1.01 was matched. It would be much more useful to know what the low was as there are quite a few races where the 1.01 isn't hit - such as your example above. Without that you just have to assume the - is traded at 1.01
Well a - for low price of each winner when you look at results to me implies that 1.01 was matched. It would be much more useful to know what the low was as there are quite a few races where the 1.01 isn't hit - such as your example above. Without that you just have to assume the - is traded at 1.01
If the price moves against you you wont be able to green out.
That way is a trading method. You will find that you need to steak a lot more to win little. Get it wrong a few times and you will do your monet.
Best to leave it to the BetFair Sharks wot is circling around just after the "off" waiting for morsels like you!
Heed my words well!
Listen to the good doctor. He is rarely wrong....
That way is a trading method. You will find that you need to steak a lot more to win little. Get it wrong a few times and you will do your monet.
Best to leave it to the BetFair Sharks wot is circling around just after the "off" waiting for morsels like you!
Heed my words well!
Listen to the good doctor. He is rarely wrong....
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