Anyone else tried that system of TrevH

link to original thread? didnt it start ay 17 and reach 8.5 before the goal?

so isnt that a winner?

It takes about 30 minutes in-play for the odds to half on 0-0. Why don't you look up all the results of the day/week/season/league etc and apply the same strategy (see where there is/isn't a goal in the first 30 minutes) and see where you end up?

Better backing small stakes and laying off at just under 30 mins - you risk less and will make profits more often.

Bix, you're not doing anything wrong, but it can be a soul destroying method to implement when you hit a run of losers. I've had 16 losers in a row before, that's when you feel like the world is against you, when you're on your knees it will kick you in the face some more. If you can keep your head using this method then IMO you've got what it takes to succeed at gambling.

Imagine backing heads over and over again on the flip of a coin at 10% value - 2.2 - you are guaranteed to win long term, but you are also guaranteed to have losing runs of between 10 to 20 in a row several times a year.

The key is to keep doing the same thing and forget about the sequence of results, because you will also get winning runs of even greater length.

The reason this method shows a small long term profit after commission is that 0-0 layers hold the price up for too long after kick off. For example, did you look at the price most bookies were offering for a goal in the Man.U match before 25/26/27 minutes? I bet you couldn't have got 30 minutes for evens with any of them, more likely 26 minutes for 5/6, hence the edge becomes obvious. It doesn't matter that the edge is then known, most will fail because it's such a difficult method to implement.

Eat_your_greens, yes that's sensible to do. I've checked past seasons results i.e. premiership 09/10 laying all 0-0's for 30 minutes shows a 29 points profit, which doesn't sound like much but there are 20 fold more matches than that available every week.

Interestingly, if you lay the current score immediately after the initial goal and subsequent goals using the same strategy of redding-up for an even money bet on each new lay, the profits for that premiership season rise to 56.5 points. You will get less than 30 minutes exposure for each goal after the first though, and the key is getting a good price as the odds reform after the goal. :)

When you say ''half the odds'', do you mean for example, with a lay of 12.0, you would
close at 6.0 or 6.50 ?

A system like that will never ever work!

I hope this clarifies the matter.

Believe what you wish!

Anyone who understands time value on options will know why the system cannot produce prophets in the long term.

I hope this clarifies the matter.

Thank you for your support rb, I will always wear it!

Super patience needed for this and perhaps a few huge slices of luck.

lay 0-0 but back it back when odds have halved

u mean other way round?

no it's meant that way round.

Sorry there ocean0201 I replied to your 18.52 post i hadn't seen your 18.54 post at the time i sent my message. Trevh basically said that you lay the 0-0 at the start of the game and then hope that there is a goal and you win. If there isn't a goal by the time the price has halved then trade out for a loss. Over time your wins should outweigh your losses. The 0-0 should reach half price after 30 mins.

If you look at the EPL for 2010-2011 there were only 168 games out of 380 that were still 0-0 at 30 mins so this strategy would have been successful. Likewise for 2009-2010 there were 174 games out of 380 that were still 0-0 at 30 mins so again this strategy would have been a winner. If you look at the 2008-2009 season however there were 200 games out of 380 that were 0-0 at 30 mins so this would have been a loser.

If you just look at 1 league and do this theory for a whole season it could still end up a losing strategy. I have no idea about what happens if you do it for all the European top leagues for a season.

Hope this helps.

stupid computer...

U.A., 30 minutes isn't set in stone so it's not entirely accurate to calculate historical profits or losses that way. In some matches if there's been an early sending off you may have to red up after say 22 minutes, in other matches you may get 35 minutes for your money, and if you can get a good lay price straight after kick off even better.

The point of the method is that overall you will get more time exposed to the win at greater odds than you would get by backing a goal in the first 26 minutes at 5/6 for the same bet.

Kenilworth : To make it an evens bet, it is necessary to close the bet at
half the exchange price (lay at 12, back at 6) which is laying
at 11/1 and backing back at 5/1, and that price takes a little
bit longer to reach (more chance of a goal). Simpler to work.

Haven't seen you around for a while Kenilworth, nice holiday?

But yes halved to decimal odds not fractional. As an example if I had laid at 12.0 I would be looking to back at the price that gave me the same amount of loss as I would have won after commission. So for say a £100 lay my profit would be £96.50 if the goal came, or if not I would red up just before 6.0 for a loss close to £96.50, not £100.

So is the value in laying the 0-0 or backing it? And whichever it is, why bother with the other?

Trev, in the Udinese/Arsenal match on Wednesday night
0-0 was 12.0/12.5 prekickoff and 33 mins passed before
the price touch half (6.0/6.2), 33 mins being about 5
mins above average IMO.

In this match this evening the prekickoff price was 17.5 and hit
9.0 on 28 mins. (Barca v Porto)

Indeed Kenilworth, but it's not me that you need to convince or even make aware of this.