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I don't need to convince anyone, as I was pointing out
that you were stating the obvious in your earlier post. I'm sure Trev is aware of it. |
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U.A replying to ken : In that game, the 0-0 seconds before kick-off was 10.5/11.
That makes it an even better bet. It's often possible to lay a tick or 2 below kick off odds which gives an extra couple of minutes. Did anyone else notice all the literally free money today in many matches in the c/s market? Nothing to do with this method though. |
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I was watching just the Barcelona match, and if anyone is interested
the half price (9.0) arrived on 28 mins. |
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Kenilworth, i'm sensing a bit of hostility from you or am i misreading things, it's always difficult with the written word. What may be obvious to you is not obvious to everybody now may it.
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U.A. No hostility intended I assure you. I just thought your
comment to Trev, was a little patronising pointing out some- thing I am sure he is totally aware of, experienced as he is. Going back to the theme of the thread I feel the weakness of the method IMO is not knowing at what point the price (halfs, or is it halves?)If it settles around 28 mins there is nothing to be excited abour but, say 33 mins and that would be interesting. |
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Villa/Wolves 0-0 half price reached after 24 mins.
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Yes it's a long term method Kenilworth, win some lose some. I have done more than ten thousand matches using the method with barely one losing week though.
Matches like Tours V Nantes 13.30 ko are frequently available. KO odds were 8.6, my lay was 6.4 @ 5th minute, which ensures the entire rest of the half before closing bet (as it happens there was a goal). More time later, around 148 IP matches today! |
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you can lay Chelsea Norwich 0-0 for 32/1
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Trev, I was looking at it strictly as, that is pre kick off price, then
closing at half that price. How can you test when you don't know at which point the price reached the half way point Let me know later when you are less busy. |
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It's not really set in stone. I don't keep records of every match any more because I found it was taking up more time than the actual betting and became very draining, but when I was learning about football markets I recorded every BF in-play match kick off odds / goal minutes and odds at the time / other details.
I have books of records covering thousands of matches, that's how I tested and how I came to know the method worked, with never a losing month. If anyone is interested I can put up some other interesting stats that might help those trying to become profitable, or on the other hand if anyone doesn't want me to in case it's something they might be doing, just say! |
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It seems to me everything depends on when the
first goal arrives and if it settles at around 28 mins then there will be nothing to be gained or lost. Trev. no one could possibly know all the minutes played when the 0-0 price halved from kickoff IMO. Am I wrong ? |
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Hi there Kenilworth, glad to find out what had slightly irked you.
I can assure you that it was not my intention to be patronising, in fact my comment to Trevh was not about letting him know something that I thought he might be unaware of, but rather more of an explaination as to why I made my earlier comments and statistical information. I must admit I thought that it was very generous of Trevh to provide this system in the first place, and have no intention of trying to argue the validity of his system with him given all the work he would have done on it. I was merely expressing concern that someone else might try and use this system with unrealistic expectations, given the nature of the opening post. Anway as experienced as Trev is i'm sure he can let me know himself if he is finding me patronising (apologies if you did or do think that Trev) although part of me does respect you looking out for mate. Anyway glad there is no hostility and certainly none on my part either. |
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Kenilworth, if you're using the BF website then yes it would be difficult to impossible to monitor many matches at the same time.
U.A., yes some might have unrealistic expectations, in fact that's a certainty. The very method of redding-up half your bets would drive most people to drink! |
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U.A. Thanks for the reply, totally accepted, no offence
taken or intended. GL. |
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I'm glad you two ladies have kissed and made up, very touching. I botted this one up a couple of days ago, it's still early days but the initial results show a net profit of +8-10 lays a day. Obviously the liability is on the high side and will therefore put in a bit of code to release funds @1000 to churn the money. To be honest, even though the bot has produced more winning lays than losers, I have lost larger amounts on the losing lays because it traded low liquidity matches and some back bets didn't get matched, therefore I put in a condition to only place a lay if the total matched is above £5000. The bot places the lay (
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Half my post is missing, very apt condsidering the subject matter!
I will post the rest of it if anyone is interested. |
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*considering ffs
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Eyg, that's interesting, I would imagine it's difficult to get the bot to close the initial lay safely? I mean if a gap in the spread appears too soon, couldn't the bot be backing at say 4.0 having laid at 12.0? And of course the greater the stake the greater the difficulty in redding-up at the required odds.
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If there was a wide spread, the Lay side would be slightly lower and the Back side would be slightly higher than norm. The stop loss triggers when the best Back price reaches the 50% mark so it works well in that sense. Putting in a condition that will only trade markets with a certain amount of liquidity helps (any suggestions would help with this, I have currently set it at 5k), I also put in a chase facility to make sure the closing trade gets matched.
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Trev H, That is a very interesting system and obviously well researched. I assume you would only use high liquidity games to keep the edge on the time decay. A couple of thoughts - Did you ever in those early days test this over a longer period ? say 60 minutes etc and have you ever considered cross markets combining this system ? Last season I tried a system nearly opposite to this one where I backed the nil nil on matches where stats indicated likely first goal time between 26-30 minutes and combined this with backing over 2.5 goals about 20 minutes in play. My theory was to win/trade profitably on the 2 bets and with careful selection at least it showed a profit. I struggle to get the back high lay low philosophy out of my head and find incredibly good value on the correct score market. A back of the 2-2 score with a view to trade is a favourite of mine and I have never had a problem with the losing runs because experience has shown me that the odds come in very sharply on numerous occasions for a green trade. Thanks for sharing that and best of luck.
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EYG, I used to play in most matches except the very very sparse, so your 5k rule sounds very conservative to me.
MIS, I've never been one for combining bets, I like to keep it simple but good luck if you can make that work. I did look at closing the lay further on in the match for a larger red screen but the results were worse overall. During my record keeping I discovered some other interesting anomalies along the way, such as what happens if you lay (to leave/not red up) the current score after every goal up to the 70th minute, compared to backing it. The result was surprising. Another interesting one is what happens if you lay or back an early 1-0 (in lower odds matches) in comparison to laying or backing an early 0-0 at the same point, which was consistently surprising. :) |
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keep backing the current score is the way to go
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