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Going to trial this until the end of September and see how it goes. Using Sporting Index spreads, backing correct scores where the "Team Goals" spread cover an exact amount of goals.
So, Match 1 is Man Utd v Spurs where SI go 2-2.2 about Man Utd total goals and 0.9-1.1 about Spurs total goals.
The bet is therefore £10 Man Utd to win 2-1 @ 8.8.
So, Match 1 is Man Utd v Spurs where SI go 2-2.2 about Man Utd total goals and 0.9-1.1 about Spurs total goals.
The bet is therefore £10 Man Utd to win 2-1 @ 8.8.
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Good luck mate... quick question..... are you disregarding the price so when you are backing the correct score i.e would you have backed 2 -1 @ 6.8?
Yes, disregarding the price.
The spreads can be amazingly accurate in cricket & rugby union so I'm seeing how it works on football. The market seems to strongly suggest Man Utd will get 2 tonight, and with Ferdinand & Vidic absent and a good result last week, Spurs to get 1 at Old Trafford doesn't seem quite so far-fetched. Normally I think the "Spurs goals" index would be much lower.
Just trialling this for now, no real money going on it until October (possibly) when I would guess the spread markets will have taken note of a decent sample of matches. My theory is that if it breaks even between now and the end of September (with little data so far this season) then it could be profitable in October and beyond.
Just a theory, and it could be complete rubbish!
The spreads can be amazingly accurate in cricket & rugby union so I'm seeing how it works on football. The market seems to strongly suggest Man Utd will get 2 tonight, and with Ferdinand & Vidic absent and a good result last week, Spurs to get 1 at Old Trafford doesn't seem quite so far-fetched. Normally I think the "Spurs goals" index would be much lower.
Just trialling this for now, no real money going on it until October (possibly) when I would guess the spread markets will have taken note of a decent sample of matches. My theory is that if it breaks even between now and the end of September (with little data so far this season) then it could be profitable in October and beyond.
Just a theory, and it could be complete rubbish!
You just won't find many bets!
You need a game exactly like tonight with a goal expectancy of (about) 3 and a supremacy of about 1.
You'll also never back any other score than 2-1.
Don't bother.
You need a game exactly like tonight with a goal expectancy of (about) 3 and a supremacy of about 1.
You'll also never back any other score than 2-1.
Don't bother.
I'm OK with that. I'm not expecting many 4-3 or 5-0 games. 2-1 is the most popular score, isn't it?
If a couple of weeks go by without a bet, so be it. Surely there will be some 1-1 games in there though?
If a couple of weeks go by without a bet, so be it. Surely there will be some 1-1 games in there though?
Almost all games have a goals expectancy ranging from 2.2 to 2.8...occasionally they go as high as 3+ but that's usually when one team is expected to win easily.
You'll wait a long time before you find even a 1-1. You'll need two team quotes of 1-1.2 and a goal expectancy of 2.1 - 2.3.
You won't find any 4-3 or 5-0 ever.
You'll wait a long time before you find even a 1-1. You'll need two team quotes of 1-1.2 and a goal expectancy of 2.1 - 2.3.
You won't find any 4-3 or 5-0 ever.
OK, thanks for the info.
So we're looking at 2-1 games exclusively. I'm happy with that.
Obviously not a great start as Man Utd won 3-0 tonight.
Current position : £10 loss
So we're looking at 2-1 games exclusively. I'm happy with that.
Obviously not a great start as Man Utd won 3-0 tonight.
Current position : £10 loss
Good Luck.
I'll be interested to see how much normal league action you get, when the total goals expectation dips below 3.
I'll be interested to see how much normal league action you get, when the total goals expectation dips below 3.
Last Saturday from 39 matches there were only 3 matches near the 3 goal
requirement, at Rotherham 2.9, Peterborough 3.0, and Chelsea 3.1. The
superiority 0.8, 0.2 and 1.6 respectively. Reading v Barnsley was close,
1 goal superiority, 2.8 goals expectancy. one or two were quite close
on one or the other. As the other poster said, probably not worth bothering.
requirement, at Rotherham 2.9, Peterborough 3.0, and Chelsea 3.1. The
superiority 0.8, 0.2 and 1.6 respectively. Reading v Barnsley was close,
1 goal superiority, 2.8 goals expectancy. one or two were quite close
on one or the other. As the other poster said, probably not worth bothering.
. 2-1 is the most popular score, isn't it?
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not really, most games tend to be 1-0 ,0-1 ,1-1 or even 0-0
goals in the first 60 minutes of football (when you need them ) are quite rare
____________
not really, most games tend to be 1-0 ,0-1 ,1-1 or even 0-0
goals in the first 60 minutes of football (when you need them ) are quite rare
5 bets to date, all lost. £50 down so far.
Bet 6 Benfica to beat Twente 2-1. £10 @ 9.4
Bet 7 Blackburn to beat Sheff Wed 2-1. £10 @ 9.2
Coachbuster
I thought that the single most popular score was 2-1? When I say that, I mean to EITHER the home or away team. I thought that was more common than 1-0/0-1 etc. Am I right? I thought I was, but don't have the stats.
Bet 6 Benfica to beat Twente 2-1. £10 @ 9.4
Bet 7 Blackburn to beat Sheff Wed 2-1. £10 @ 9.2
Coachbuster
I thought that the single most popular score was 2-1? When I say that, I mean to EITHER the home or away team. I thought that was more common than 1-0/0-1 etc. Am I right? I thought I was, but don't have the stats.
Bara- In your 2nd post you say you are disregarding the price you are backing at !
Also a trial to the end of Sept will only produce a small sample .
Probably not a good idea to include Carling Cup matches involving smaller premiership teams not taking it seriously i.e QPR .
Maybe best to just trial the premiership although this won't throw up many bets .
I would knock it on the head to be honest but good luck anyway . cc .
Also a trial to the end of Sept will only produce a small sample .
Probably not a good idea to include Carling Cup matches involving smaller premiership teams not taking it seriously i.e QPR .
Maybe best to just trial the premiership although this won't throw up many bets .
I would knock it on the head to be honest but good luck anyway . cc .
I am disregarding the price in so far as even if it is ridiculously low I would still "place" the bet. The spreads dictate, not the price.
I need to record it though, in order to keep track of P&L.
The sample won't be huge, but I reckon it could be close to a hundred matches by the end of September. (All domestic games & CL games).
Just trialling remember, not real money!
I need to record it though, in order to keep track of P&L.
The sample won't be huge, but I reckon it could be close to a hundred matches by the end of September. (All domestic games & CL games).
Just trialling remember, not real money!
baracouda - it depends on the game in question , sometimes 2-1 is shorter than 1-0 , 1-1 i would say is the most common or shortest ,usually 6.6 - 8 on average
Bet 6 and Bet 7 both lost (both 3-1 home wins).
Currently £70 down.
Currently £70 down.
Coachbuster
You are probably right but isn't 2-1 dutched with 1-2 going to be a shorter price than 1-1?
You are probably right but isn't 2-1 dutched with 1-2 going to be a shorter price than 1-1?
regardless of how many times 2 - 1 scoreline comes in, anything that is not price sensitive is doomed to failure
"regardless of how many times 2 - 1 scoreline comes in, anything that is not price sensitive is doomed to failure"
Spot on - you need to adjust your, er, 'system' to reflect price. If you were to say that when the spreads imply it will be 2-1 (based on your 'system' above) then they are correct 15% of the time so I will back any matches above 8.0 (or whatever you think is a reasonable margin) then you would have a better chance.
Spot on - you need to adjust your, er, 'system' to reflect price. If you were to say that when the spreads imply it will be 2-1 (based on your 'system' above) then they are correct 15% of the time so I will back any matches above 8.0 (or whatever you think is a reasonable margin) then you would have a better chance.
1-0, 2-0, 2-1, and 1-1 are about equal in occurance, with
0-1, 0-2, 1-2 being being less for obvious reasons.
0-1, 0-2, 1-2 being being less for obvious reasons.
go to this link: http://soccer.betfair.com/ and click on form guide to see the stats on scorelines
2-1 was the most popular score until 1969, and 1-1 since.
i swear 0-0s must come in 30% of the time in my games 
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