trading.THE DO"S AND DONTS...PLEASE NEW TO TO IT..

Don't pay more than 39% in tax.

Never chase losses!

you been here 4 years and you want advice  ?

Rs1
31 Aug 11 00:55 Joined: 12 Jan 08 | Topic/replies: 4,998 | Blogger: Rs1's blog
you been here 4 years and you want advice  ?


You have been here 3 years and you don't know when you're being fished?

your right whats fishing .. at a guess it what an idiot would do who hasn't got enough of  a brain to hold a normal conversation

dont start. no way to make consistent money on here

How optimistic paul

Guess you're still not getting any success?

nope.

dont think anyone is apart from undern really

I wouldn't believe everything you read on the Undern thread Paulme. Many of the bets are after timed, and his methodology is not consistent with winning. Please don't start a debate about it though, it's just my opinion.

never seen you post a bet freddie

why not freddy

up to you. not working today?

BA

BACK HIGH LAY LOW

Never let a lay go "in running" , you will go bankrupt in the end.

Freddie, the point is that many of the bets won't get after timed, they will simply not be recorded if they lose. I don't follow the thread but do look in occasionally, and most times I do there's a "oh and I placed this bet last night" type post. The last one was for nearly £400 on over 1.5 goals which won. Had it lost I suspect we never would have heard about it. The bottom line is, you can't increase the bank at the rate recorded on that thread by placing random bets at poor value odds, so something is awry.

Trevh - as U is backing/laying IR......then he is laying at low odds, and if he/she has an edge, then this can explain why he/she does well .

HORSES appears to be where he/she lays and is "successful".......

I've just layed       Spirit Is Needed in 2.10 race at 3.15 odds PRIOR to race.....but i should be LAYING it IR at lower odds....as fair chance it will appear to be running well enough to win.

It MIGHT win....so the odds i have layed at PRIOR to race are "poor value", believing the odds will be lower IR.....but i not "experienced" in laying HORSES......so tend to lay BEFORE race starts .

Perhaps I should be LAYING IR........so U has encouraged me to try this ......About to do nowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Gl with bets

Trying a U lay IR nowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww......at lower than odds previously layed at !

Given up on laying it IR ....as unlikely to match!

DRAT it would have matched

Ooooopssssssssssssssssssssssss...


OK it won....but I could have layed it at far lower odds IR......so at least U is getting the VALUE IR......FAV falling enabled it to win....though might have won anyway!

I'm c ra p at LAYING HORSES!!!!!

Trevh - now now those comments are a bit naughty.

Perhaps you should take a closer look at the bets before you suggest I spend countless hours on here conjuring up some amazing bets ....

Just because I use different methodology to your 'value' theorem ... you do remember what a  utility function looks like don't you [;)]

By all means let Paulme know that there is many people on here making money .... (not just me) ... but try and limit your opinion of me when doing so.

While a number of bets have been posted after the event - if you care to read through the thread carefully (oh sorry that's right you like to pick and choose what bets you look at) you will see I have done my utmost to put the bets as and when .....

Value .... you talk as if you have it all bottled up only to be released on your own bets. I am afraid 'value' is too subjective ...

Don't worry I won't waste my time trying to explain ... I will simply let you wander around suggesting value is the key to success where as I think being able to produce right utility function from a bet is much more important ....

biggest mistake people make in trading is "trading out" far too early

soon as something goes in their favour they trade out to "lock in the profit"  too scared to actually let it ride

just throwing money away most of the time


like people back overs @ 1.80.. goal after 5 mins they trade out straight away.. WHY???

If overs is 1.80 pre KO it will take until around the 40th minute for it it get back up to 1.80 after a 5 min goal

could easilly be another goal inside that 35 mins and then overs drops to 1.10-1.20..

if that happens overs wont get to 1.80 until around 70th-73rd minute by which time bet could be won


it might sound stupid but the majority of trades done by people are poor ones.  They trade out at poor prices just to lock in profit.

really all they do is cost themselves more profit in the long run

basically... dont be scared to let things run as soon as an event goes your way

DFC, just because it's possible to lay in-running at a lower price doesn't automatically make it good value, unless you believe the fast pics boys mostly get it wrong? The way I see it, your ir lay will usually only be taken when it becomes good value for them to back, hence a poor value lay.

Bf-Donk, yes most people who green-up will more than likely be taking poor value most of the time, especially if they just put up a back or lay to be taken.

"The way I see it, your ir lay will usually only be taken when it becomes good value for them to back, hence a poor value lay."

But if you look at the results of most races, a lot of runnners will trade lower than their SP; it could be considered that they represent value at a given time in the race, but on what basis? Whilst much rational analysis can take place before a race to form an opinion, during the race with so many runners to track how can someone ensure value or know what value is(?)... maybe in the last furlong with something pulling clear its more straightforward, but before that point, races can change in an instant, with some jockeys making it look easy sitting still with nothing underneath them, but others seeming to push away knowing horse has plenty left.

Some of the more experienced IRers here have pointed out that the fast pics boys often get it wildly wrong in the opening stages of races, reading too much into every little bit of body language. There's undoubtedly money to be made for those who know why a horse should be running where during the opening stages.

However, if you're going up against the fast pics boys in the closing stages of races, you're almost certainly playing at a disadvantage.

I know what you're saying guys, but one downside of laying a horse in-running has to be the fact that you will sometimes not get matched on what would have been a winning lay, but will always get matched on a losing lay.