General Betting
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19 Aug 11
23:10
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Date Joined:
10 Jan 02
Sorry if this has been mentioned in the Magician thread but using the figures provided to get the salient figures you have to strip out the World Cup. The World Cup has been mentioned in each of the last two annual reports as highly significant the figures quoted by Magician bear that out.
Stripping out soccer as it was the World Cup in 2010 you end up with these figures:
2010 2nd July to 18th July................1,170,027,734
2010 19th July to 4th August............1,133,774,539
fall over period.......................................36,253,195
percentage fall........................................3.1%
2011 1st July to 17th July.................1,452,816,636
2011 18th July to 3rd August............1,169,962,242
fall over period.....................................282,854,394
percentage fall.......................................19.5%
stripping out the World Cup up to the 18th July turnover increased by 24% in 2011 compared to 2010 so the trend was up. Yet after the PC was introduced turnover has fallen by over 6 times the figure than it did in 2010. On the face of it highly significant.
Significantly ALL categories show a decline or smaller increase vis a vis 2011 to 2010.
Stripping out soccer as it was the World Cup in 2010 you end up with these figures:
2010 2nd July to 18th July................1,170,027,734
2010 19th July to 4th August............1,133,774,539
fall over period.......................................36,253,195
percentage fall........................................3.1%
2011 1st July to 17th July.................1,452,816,636
2011 18th July to 3rd August............1,169,962,242
fall over period.....................................282,854,394
percentage fall.......................................19.5%
stripping out the World Cup up to the 18th July turnover increased by 24% in 2011 compared to 2010 so the trend was up. Yet after the PC was introduced turnover has fallen by over 6 times the figure than it did in 2010. On the face of it highly significant.
Significantly ALL categories show a decline or smaller increase vis a vis 2011 to 2010.
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Replies: 153
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It's still really early to make comparisons. I think the more interesting data at this stage would be from another exchange...
Looking forward to the Worlds? |
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it is early days sure but an awful start imo.
Looking forward most to seeing Mo Farah taking on Bekele who is back having not competed sine January 2010. |
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Cram and Foster in the commentary booth should be a good laugh too.
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I was away this summer so missed most the Diamond League- I hope you survived without the benefit of taking my money
 Should be a good meet, looking forward to it, although I have the Leeds festival next weekend too! |
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It's even worse than a 19.5% fall, Betfair was down on the Saturday afternoon before PC2 began so the pre-PC2 figures are understated to some extent. I agree though it's still too early to tell and it would be interesting to have data from other exchanges so we know if the turnover has gone there.
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CLYDEBANK29
you're right about the world cup..but also, the world cup took away bets from other sports...so betting on Wimbledon was down because of the world cup..So it not as bad as taking the full world cup figures away But i think betting at betfair is down a lot because of PC |
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I can see the interest in comparisons with another exchange but I think that overlooks the possibility that some may have dropped out of exchange betting altogether.
If I half what I was winning here before pc2 (assuming that all my former strategies remain profitable - which they don't), I'm better off doing semi-skilled manual work, for no risk. For those with a business or high value skills they can turn their attentions to, I imagine it's a no-brainer. |
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back to work in a dead end job which i hate it more let just calm down lol
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pick up the penny and it do pay the bills
be calm and betfair can have 1/2 of it |
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Possibly an irrelevance since I think they were ineffective, but since the 18th of July this year, Betfair have been trying to boost business with extra promotions. If we assume that they were effective though, this makes the early figures even worse.
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While we would all like to draw comfort from any figures showing a decline in business for BF am I not correct in suggesting that depending on how that decline is made up is important...ie the turnover lost being the `wrong type of turnover` (for BF that is).
By introducing the first and then the second PC BF although extremely naive in many departments, knew that many were going to defect. This has been accelerated by the latest charge and certainly will also be in projections by them. The figures remind me of the old betting duty system. Bookmakers paid approx. 8% of turnover in tax and levy. The worst scenario for bookies was the shrewd punter who turned over fortunes but left little behind. By closing accounts back then they saw a drop in turnover but an increase in the gross %..in other words ideal figures. If, and by using this I place no credence whatsoever on BF`s claim that PC payers are simply uneconomical to BF...the drop you have outlined is purely from PC payers, (and that seems certain) it is not as disturbing to BF if even a fraction of that figure was from non PC payers...or BF`s `ideal` customers. These are the people who SHOULD be drifting away...aware that as losers or break levellers they are a meal ticket for a greedy company that will not tolerate its clients winning in a regular fashion. This drop in turnover/liquidity could in fact be welcome for the company simply for the reason that it is made up from the turnover of the very people BF wish to leave the site. Basically BF WANT rid of PC payers and cannot believe that ANY will stay. If some do as they certainly will, then BF will have set in motion the mechanics for PC3. |
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I think anyone thinking Betfair want PC payers to go are wrong.
I think Betfair want them all to stay. They just want more of their earnings. |
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I disagree DD. Liquidity providers are the most important customers on the exchange and I'd be confident Betfair recognise that. They don't want them to leave (unless they are cheats and possibly courtsiders). They based the charge on the premise that most won't leave because the exchange model facilitates a natural (BF) monopoly and that there was enough slack to be filled by those unaffected.
Off out now. |
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I don't even think Betfair want cheats and courtsiders to go as long as they get more than 60 % of their winnings.
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Beware of what Ducan states,I believe he is trying to undermine forum users faith in betfair
and I would not be surprised if he works for another site? have a look how he came on to my thread recently and denounced me as a betfair plant when all I am trying to state is that betfair who have arrived at superior liquidity because of there aggressive growth campaigns want us too share the massive profits won by many to further develop globally the betfair company and liquidity which is doubling every 3 years, the other site has made a terrible growth record for a competitor that has been around for 10 years, we cannot judge betfairs liquidity based on 2 week periods and need more time to view the real picture, for Ducan to keep banging on that everyone is leaving and slating anyone that has optimism like me is totally negative and could even be classed as subversive! |
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I think anyone thinking Betfair want PC payers to go are wrong.
I think Betfair want them all to stay. They just want more of their earnings. Yes, this is the whole point. Why spend millions and take the risk of seeding your own markets when you already have an army of winners to do it for you. |
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I agree with ETE but I doubt many of the pc2 payers will be seeding markets or providing any real liquidity. I also suspect that elsewhere isn't an option for most of them.
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Clydebank...I always recall Andrew Black`s retort to those who attacked him on his blog when the 20% PC was announced..
" 80/20 is still a good deal " From the City stand he was right, from the gambling world he was sorely out of touch. Is Andrew now still saying 40/60 (against clients) is still a good deal ? This is not about a hypothetical partnership between PC payers and the company...this is about gamblers like myself (not hooverers etc etc) being penalised for doing what they are fully entitled to do..ie win ! As for the liquidity providers being the lifeblood of the exchange, well yes I know they are but I`ll bet my boots they aren`t coughing up 60% or 40% or whatever figure. If they are they are not in the same world that I bet in...I defy anyone to beat that PC without having some sort of unfair advantage. If they are happy to pay that PC then one must ask why they don`t transfer to purple and make BF a ghost town ? Punters would flock there because that is where their precious liquidity was now housed. As for those unaffected who provide the liquidity...watch out is all I can say. No, I reckon the people you speak of do not pay a penny in PC and if they did they would do as most here have done try over the road. Again...I believe that BF actively want the winners off their site. The only reason we will use this site is if we cannot get matched elsewhere. Even £40 out of a ton is better than 0 out of nothing...that`s assuming that winners can keep it going with that collossal edge against them. |
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As DD says, no real liqudity provider will stay when they hit PC2.
Highest likelyhood of staying when caught by PC2 are cheats, fastpics/courtsiders and then regular traders. |
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I agree with FNE and ETE and mr angry etc
Betfair love there liquidity lead and now the profits of those who win more with it to say they dont want them is too say the betfair model to promote winners has failed and betfair has failed when it clearly is working for many and betfair themselves. Betfair are in an unusual for a betting company fiscal embrace of winners now and they certainly do not want anyone to leave |
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Correct Eddie...and BF know this which amounts to BF showing them the door.
Of course BF would like the PC payers to stay and fill their coffers but realistically this PC is akin to closing winning accounts. |
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DD, I actually don't think they understand how much PC2 will hurt real liquidity makers getting bhit by it. I think Betfair believe they will stay, but as we agree on - they will not.
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All betfair are saying is win as much as you want/can or manage but give them 60% as you have
took it out the system before they make there required profit to operate and bring in new trade this money then they will use to carry on growing and secure there future for us They would rather you increase your liquidity and profit then leave and are not restricting the amounts you can win, perhaps an inability to win or expand/raise there game is some persons over-riding problem in which case it wont better you to move to a site with slighty more over-round and less liquidity though liquidity wont be this groups problem. Why dont betfair clear up all the speculation on what pc2 is for and inform customers properly why the hell is it left to persons like me, am fed up to the teeth with it all |
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They need to stop living and hiding in there tower and talk to you all its not right how they dont inform all customers as to there ideals and concepts
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PC2 is there for one purpose only and that is to increase their bottom line.
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yep true
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To set up a company and have the brilliant Andy Black say winners are welcome and then
stick in winners charges without blinking an eye and at least informing customers as to its meaning is total ignorance, I have some insight into its mechanism but jesus people think I work for them because I am doing what they should be doing and I am really pissed off with having to do it |
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If you alienate the very people you encouraged to come closer then you lose friends very quickly
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You're saying that the weakness of the PC2 is the PR?
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As for the liquidity providers being the lifeblood of the exchange, well yes I know they are but I`ll bet my boots they aren`t coughing up 60% or 40% or whatever figure.
I'd bet the main liquidity providers are already paying 40%+ in normal commission. If they weren't the minimum pc2 rate would've been set at whatever level accommodated them. The bulk of horse racing liquidity is supplied by two main players (the Hong Kong mob and the big oz player). Betfair's attitude to other pc2 liquidity providers is probably that they're chasing the same value the big two are (I don't think that's always true - I'm certain it's not in my case) so it doesn't matter if they leave as the big 2 will just fill the gap. I think that's a mistake though as, unlike the Ferengi and the cheats, they can boost liquidity elsewhere and I also don't think it's a given that those paying pc's are the only ones affected by it. My main problem with betfair is not so much with the level of the charges (if the exchange was government run I wouldn't have any problem at all charge wise) it's the fact they've dragged exchange betting into the city gutter. |
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Be careful Ducan you are once again tryng to make it look like betfair have stated things to you or us that aren't true, putting regards betfair at the bottom could get you into trouble and if your posting
things like that you are misrepresenting the company something you accuse me of when I have absolutely nothing to do with them as I am not completely happy with all they do, careful what you post |
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Only a simpleton like you bff could continue to interrupt serious discussion with your utter sycophantic infantile gibberish...can you not see you are being ignored by almost every poster now ?
Why don`t you have your first ever bet on here and then you can mix it with some of us who have served their apprenticeship and have forgotten more than you will ever understand about not only Betfair but gambling too. May I guide you to Chit Chat next door...there are many threads that will welcome your presence...who knows you may even recognise some of your schoolmates there. |
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well done bff...you have proved what I and others knew about you with that deletion.
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Holy cow! That was quite surreal.
At least the truth is out now. |
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You cant keep saying betfair dont want winners, them deleting it proves that they do indeed
case closed |
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Oh dear.....
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Betfair have provided a winning platform for winners for over 10 years now and will continue to do so
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