|
By:
A middlemen free market.
|
|
By:
Oh come on Feck. Admit it - you'd be all lonely without us middlemen [;)]
|
|
By:
I would still be around in a middleman free market. I'd just stop being a middleman.
I only trade because Betfair's charging structure makes it rational for me to do so, and things like PC change how I operate over time. Almost all my profit is from manual betting/trading by the way, so I'm not saying what I said about bots through self interest. It just stands to reason that the more competing winners there are, the better off the leisure punter will be. I've never really heard a feasible argument to the contrary. Sorry to hi-jack your thread Magician [;)] |
|
By:
First walk out, nobody noticed. Second walkout never happened because the Ferengi noticed nobody noticed. The famous liquidity = fool's gold.
|
|
By:
It just stands to reason that the more competing winners there are, the better off the leisure punter will be. I've never really heard a feasible argument to the contrary.
I've yet to hear a feasible argument that makes your point. Mark Davies "competition among course players supplies accurate ir prices to stay at home punters" and you and Contrarian's "backers and layers would be staring at each other across an abyss without us" just don't do it for me. |
|
By:
DivideByZeroError
I think my most immediate need is more programmers, to build my ideas into bots.... the maths/stats/modeling is also required... and perhaps need to be a second different person. if I have to do one of the two jobs, I will do the maths/stats one |
|
By:
I'm not saying "backers and layers would be staring at each other across an abyss without us".
What I am saying is that if I quit tomorrow, other winners operating in my markets would be marginally better off, and leisure punters in my markets would marginally worse off. Fairly obvious really: if a market is priced to 103%, and I add my prices causing it to go to 102%, the less sophisticated are going to benefit from this. The people negatively affected are those trying to get larger margins than I am, and are also unable or unwilling to undercut me. |
|
By:
Feck, I remember the good old days too. Backers didn't stare at layers across the abyss, they used to either go elsewhere or take a cr@p price. Great for the layer, I used to have such fun on the F1 markets. But honestly, with my bot I am providing tons more liquidity at much better prices - that's got to be good for the average punter and (therefore) betfair and I'm not going to walk out, or even threaten to, until I've been swallowed up by the competition that is still tightening.
|
|
By:
Investor, your mistake is you assume it wouldn't go 102% (or 100% for that matter) without you. Your shallow argument also presumes betfair's crummy stock market interface is all there is and ever will be.
|
|
By:
catfloppo, what's your point?
|
|
By:
Just because it's worse for you doesn't make it worse.
|
|
By:
Who said it was worse for me? I didn't even join back in the "good old days". If you think I joined because traders filled in the abyss with £2 bets you're way wide of the mark. I'm not anti-API BTW (although it would be much less relevant given a decent interface), I'm anti-middlemen.
|
|
By:
Feck N. Eejit
Date Joined: 10 Jan 02 Add contact | Send message When: 12 Aug 11 16:11 Joined: Date Joined: 10 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 4,702 | Blogger: Feck N. Eejit's blog Investor, your mistake is you assume it wouldn't go 102% (or 100% for that matter) without you. Your shallow argument also presumes betfair's crummy stock market interface is all there is and ever will be. That's a self defeating argument, if it went to 100% without me, I wouldn't be able to make money. I make money because I put up better prices than anyone else at a particular moment in time and hence I get matched. In an illiquid market, I might make a market to 110%. If other winners step in and jump in front of me, I will jump in front of them and tighten the spread. I'm not going to make a 102% book in an illiquid market if I don't have to, it's just a no brainer that winners competing tightens the spread in the way described. |
|
By:
Let me ask you Ferengi this. If I want to place a bet and the spread's 2.0-2.2 what makes you think I won't place my offer inside the spread? What makes you think the next backer up won't undercut me? And so on (remember existing offers may be shortened up as well). Is your argument that there aren't enough backers and layers to fill in the spread themselves or they're too dumb or what?
|
|
By:
In an illiquid market, I might make a market to 110%. If other winners step in and jump in front of me, I will jump in front of them and tighten the spread. I'm not going to make a 102% book in an illiquid market if I don't have to, it's just a no brainer that winners competing tightens the spread in the way described.
Like all traders you fall back on the quiet markets. Where would we all be without the quiet markets? Next time I get 2K @ 6.0 on a horse race I must remember to thank god for the market makers on lady's hockey. |
|
By:
Apologies magician.
|
|
By:
Anyone can fill that spread.
Due to the pricing structure, it's more likely to be a trader though, as he can profit from small spreads. Imagine there was a market for virtual coin tossing. I'd happily be backing at 2.00 and laying at 1.99. A good old fashioned gambler wouldn't be able to profit, so the only people left in the market are traders and leisure punters. It would be impossible for anyone to undercut me. In a similar situation with more uncertainty, I might price to 1.96-2.04. You and others are free to undercut me if you want, but I make money exactly because people don't (always) undercut me. |
|
By:
Due to the pricing structure, it's more likely to be a trader though, as he can profit from small spreads.
Traders need gamblers to fill them in so the trader can only go where gamblers already are or will follow. Your "boldly going where no positional punter would dare to tread" claim is therefore silly. Imagine there was a market for virtual coin tossing. I'd happily be backing at 2.00 and laying at 1.99. A good old fashioned gambler wouldn't be able to profit, so the only people left in the market are traders and leisure punters. It would be impossible for anyone to undercut me. So what? You'd still only be acting as a middleman robbing either the backers on one end of your trade or the layers on the other end of a better deal. This is supposed to be an example of how you supply liquidity AND how your presence saves leisure punters money? |
|
By:
Traders need gamblers to fill them in so the trader can only go where gamblers already are or will follow. Your "boldly going where no positional punter would dare to tread" claim is therefore silly.
Yes, but I'm saying I'll "boldly going where no winning positional punter would dare to tread" They have to beat commission, I don't. So what? You'd still only be acting as a middleman robbing either the backers on one end of your trade or the layers on the other end of a better deal. This is supposed to be an example of how you supply liquidity AND how your presence saves leisure punters money? If you call taking money from leisure punters 'robbing' that is what we are all doing. Just because you are a gambler does not change the fact that you are taking money off the leisure punters just like the traders are. I'm looking at it from a different viewpoint. You seem to split Betfair users broadly into two groups: gamblers and middlemen. I think a more natural split is winners and leisure punters. Punters aren't competing against traders, winners are competing against winners. |
|
By:
Yes, but I'm saying I'll "boldly going where no winning positional punter would dare to tread"
Heads v Tails you'd hardly be needed. Anything else you're assuming the betfair prices would be efficient and you still need the leisure layers and gamblers to tread there to fill you in. You still seem redundant to me. If you call taking money from leisure punters 'robbing' that is what we are all doing. Just because you are a gambler does not change the fact that you are taking money off the leisure punters just like the traders are. I'm not the one claiming to be doing leisure punters a favour though. You seem to split Betfair users broadly into two groups: gamblers and middlemen. I thought it was you that did that. Does traders saving leisure punters from the big bad evil winning gamblers not ring a bell? |
|
By:
I'm looking at it from a different viewpoint. You seem to split Betfair users broadly into two groups: gamblers and middlemen.
This is the core of Feck's blindspot. He is unable to understand that someone trading a market inevitably ends up taking a position. It might be possible to make small profits by making very swift almost risk-free trades, but any trader looking to make decent money (even with the help of automation) has to take some sort of position/view. That view might not be as simple as, say, 'team A is playing really well, so there probability of winning this match is greater than that implied by the market' - a straightforward 'positional' view - but more along the lines of 'my analysis shows that the Betfair markets tend to under/overestimate the probability of x happening in this sort of situation'. Nevertheless it is still a view, and the trader taking it is not simply a mindless broker. |
|
By:
Horse racing is also a different beast to other sports. havent looked at a horse race here in years so god knows what goes on in those markets. When one poster says "try backing a horse, blah, blah" and the other says "team A" they are talking different languages imo
|
|
By:
Have no idea why my post of midnight last night has disappeared?,anyway,like the stockmarket when any system becomes available to the masses it becomes useless,i.e. Tecnical Analysis.
Big money short shares,triggering a computer generated sell,then close their bear positions.You have to develop [or find] something that others are not doing,as with everything,your own research is the way to go. |
|
By:
Investor - quiet markets, Contrarian - ir markets. Last refuges of the defeated traders supply liquidity delusionals.
|
|
By:
"makes sense as that probably allows the person to dovetail into my existing programmers"
EXISTING programmers? How many do you have or possibly require! (I may have missed it). Oh and can't believe you've let an interesting thread be sidetracked by that tedious F++-ing obsessve "feck" and his utterly predictable crap again :( |
|
By:
Just checking
I have a few people currently syndicated with various projects - but they most have other demands on their time - so dont have more capacity for the syndicate work they do with me But I am on the lookout to expand ( with 1 or 2) full time syndicate members - or service providers (depending on what suits them. Feck is a legend, and while I don't exactly agree with him on this point (he has many valid sub points), his presence on this thread is bringing in traffic to my little thread that might have died without him. Long live the 'untouchable' Feck.... |
|
By:
Well sayed magician. Up yours Just B1tching.
|
|
By:
Feck N. Eejit
| Topic/replies: 4,734 | Blogger: Feck N. Eejit's blog Investor - quiet markets, Contrarian - ir markets. Last refuges of the defeated traders supply liquidity delusionals. If the markets aren't quiet (gaps in the spread) the trader obviously can't make the spread smaller. My profits are correlated to liquidity: the better the liquidity the more I make. In low liquidity markets my margins are obviously higher, but I only get a tiny fraction matched compared to high liquidity ones. I find it ironic that during extremely quiet periods such as summer without World Cup or other major tournaments, I got hit with data request charges (2009) for the first time. I wasn't making more data requests, just getting hardly anything matched. So Betfair was penalising me for providing liquidity to p!ss poor markets, and I stopped bothering. I can't imagine that was a good outcome for Betfair. Who cares if someone is making a lot of data requests when the site overall is extremely quiet anyway. I was making a book for in play Correct Score on several matches that were virtually dead, I got so little matched that a chunk of my (already very small) profit was eaten away by DRC. |
|
By:
If the markets aren't quiet (gaps in the spread) the trader obviously can't make the spread smaller.
Some of the Ferengi think markets that aren't quiet are that way because they and their buddies have filled in the chasm between the greedy gamblers. |
|
By:
Investor, re data charges, how many requests would you have to make to be charged and why would you have to make that many (particularly on a slow changing market)? Are you on the free or paid api? I'm not getting at you btw, I know little about this and I'm asking out of interest.
|
|
By:
I just realised, you were probably doing numerous markets but I'd appreciate an answer anyway.
|
|
By:
It was actually through the website. I have multiple screens, and literally have dozens of markets open at the same time on weekends.
I don't get charged, as commission easily covers everything, but this was the exception. |
|
By:
The way data requests and transaction charges apply uniformly is daft because betfair gain nothing by people throttling back when the system has capacity.
When the transaction charges first came in I suggested they implement a system whereby these charges were imposed only when the system was busy and an api call to report the status. This call could be used to generate a warning flag to interactive users which although wouldn't mean you were being charged due to the commission offset, would mean that there would be times you knew you definitely wouldn't be charged. Maybe it's harder than is sounds? |
|
By:
I would suggest using personal recommendations and building a team of more experienced people you trust for model building. Even then I find it is important to keep your cards close to your chest.
In my experience students and new graduates have to be spoon fed and are not particularly self motivated. They also will not have the experience you require. Even with a first in maths/cs they will not be able to add any flair to your ideas and take them forward. If they are the sort of person that could they will be off once they realise how easily/much a decent system makes. I find students/new graduates are useful for specific tasks though such as maintaining code or developing new code around very set parameters. Also selling the job offer as something around 'betting' is not appealing. It is really project work that can be adapted to different markets. Although I started on here most of my attention is elsewhere now in fields people are much more approving of and willing to work on. Betfair is changing and will continue to change. A year or two from now it could look completely different with far less opportunities (they keep moving the goal posts). |
|
By:
Thanks Investor. Catfloppo are you paid or free API? In the free API
http://bdp.betfair.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=36&Itemid=64 if two procedures are "60 times p/m" does that mean you can call both procedures 60 times inside a minute or would you only be able to call each 30 times? |
|
By:
brendanuk1 Joined: 12 Jan 02
Replies: 16229 12 Aug 11 18:31 Horse racing is also a different beast to other sports. havent looked at a horse race here in years so god knows what goes on in those markets. When one poster says "try backing a horse, blah, blah" and the other says "team A" they are talking different languages imo I've learned this the hard way through a zillion different arguments too. I don't think I'll ever properly understand how horse racing markets work. |
|
By:
Magician,
You will need two people.. one programmer and another analyst who can translate your ideas for programmer to code... it will be good if one of these two has good database skills so that they can provide stats for future models.. C++ programmer are expensive and no one will leave their banking jobs to join you unless they have interested in gambling too.. so you have to target either young grads or retired programmers good luck |
|
By:
Paid, Feck.
|
|
By:
Feck,
It means that you can call each one 60 times/minute. Though, of course, if you were querying more than one market at a time, this would reduce accordingly. |
|
By:
Thanks Contrarian.
Catfloppo, why do you feel you need the paid one? |