General Betting
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08 Aug 11
13:52
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Date Joined:
28 Oct 08
Just out of interest I thought I'd see how close my P&L from last week followed Benfords Law. Benfords Law surmises that in a random set of values, 1 will appear with the greatest frequency.
So I downloaded a sample version of Fraud Buster from here: http://apps.aicpa.org/jofa/2003_08/Fraud_Buster.xls
Deleted the columns with only 0, multiplied all the values by 100 and clicked 'Run Fraud Buster.
|| Sample Benford Sample Data
Digit Frequency Rate Rate Difference
1 124 0.301029996 0.31 0.008970004
2 75 0.176091259 0.1875 0.011408741
3 58 0.124938737 0.145 0.020061263
4 41 0.096910013 0.1025 0.005589987
5 22 0.079181246 0.055 -0.024181246
6 32 0.06694679 0.08 0.01305321
7 13 0.057991947 0.0325 -0.025491947
8 13 0.051152522 0.0325 -0.018652522
9 22 0.045757491 0.055 0.009242509
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So I downloaded a sample version of Fraud Buster from here: http://apps.aicpa.org/jofa/2003_08/Fraud_Buster.xls
Deleted the columns with only 0, multiplied all the values by 100 and clicked 'Run Fraud Buster.
|| Sample Benford Sample Data
Digit Frequency Rate Rate Difference
1 124 0.301029996 0.31 0.008970004
2 75 0.176091259 0.1875 0.011408741
3 58 0.124938737 0.145 0.020061263
4 41 0.096910013 0.1025 0.005589987
5 22 0.079181246 0.055 -0.024181246
6 32 0.06694679 0.08 0.01305321
7 13 0.057991947 0.0325 -0.025491947
8 13 0.051152522 0.0325 -0.018652522
9 22 0.045757491 0.055 0.009242509
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Replies: 41
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1 was the most frequent by a fair bit and was very close to the benford rate.
Lets see some other forumites values. |
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Sounds a bit like numerological tosh.
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The table clearly shows that it isn't tosh !
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Benford's Law is just that - a law. Using my daily results, I got the numbers below (as of 2009).
. http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2009/03/benfords-law.html |
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Certainly isn't tosh, it's used to detect a lot of things, tax fraud for instance.
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Rocket
I am a little puzzled by your analysis of your P & L results in this manner. Are you trying to prove to yourself, or somebody else, that they are not fraudulent ? Or is there some other more meaningful use of this analysis in a gambling sense ? I'm not a statistician in any form or manner quite clearly from this question. |
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The first four words of his post addressed this.
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Typical facetious reply from the small man of the forum.
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Merely answering a question to prevent the forum troll from spreading his spew into yet another thread. Seeya.
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Are you stalking me perhaps ?
Or am I just flattering myself here. Let's hope so. |
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So trolling now includes asking a reasonable question ?
After all maybe the distribution of one's gambling P & L results can be analysed in some meaningful statistical sense. But of course, you know all these things, unlike most of us other poor sods on here. |
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I thought you'd gone?
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Rocket
In light of Lori's unfortunate overreaction ( as per the norm), let me mean that I probably meant misleading more than fraudulent in my first post. That is are you using Benfords Law is some way to gain comfort that they appear quite normal and thus more likely than not to continue in such a normal sense ? |
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Viva
Gone in the sense of uselessly debating the PC. Not in the sense of trying to learn something from the forum. In this case, is there a practical application of Benfords Law to gambling reaults ?. |
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And Viva stop getting so far up Lori's bum.
Must be awfully smelly. |
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me and lori have always got on fine on here.
you on the other hand just seem intent on starting pointless arguments. |
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Ffs I'm not starting an argument by asking a question on something I'm not familiar with.
Why don't you in fact actually p!ss off and stop ruining the thread as you obviously don't have the answers I'm looking for. Rocket or somebody else may, if they don't lose interest due to the pointless thuggish posting from Lori , you et al. Why don't you get up to Nth London where presumably you would be more at home. |
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Not taking sides, but you have to laugh... I'm sure you could start a fight on the moon Frog lol, or maybe people just like jumping down your throat as soon you open your mouth, I don't know :)
Fwiw though I haven't got a clue what the point is either, but it must be relevant to Rocket. |
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think someone was going to use this to test the legitmacy of the Maria Thread
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Yeah I think it must be a frog thing trevh.
But when people do raise subjects which I know nothing about, and yet they sound interesting enough to try to find something more out about, I just ask some pretty harmless ( to me anyway) relevant questions. All pretty unnatural I just suppose. |
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I knew '15 new replies' was too good to be true.
FAFH like Lori correctly pointed out the reason is in the first sentence of my opening post: 'Just out of interest'. Purely out of interest. So does anybody else want to do it and add their results? It's very simple using the app I linked to and I'm sure some brain box like Investor will come along with an even easier formula to pop into Excel to do it. |
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Sample Benford Sample Data
Digit Frequency Rate Rate Difference 1 11328 0.301029996 0.314605493 0.013575498 2 6371 0.176091259 0.176937818 0.000846559 3 4591 0.124938737 0.127502986 0.002564249 4 3453 0.096910013 0.09589802 -0.001011993 5 2764 0.079181246 0.076762852 -0.002418394 6 2222 0.06694679 0.061710223 -0.005236567 7 1801 0.057991947 0.050018052 -0.007973895 8 1792 0.051152522 0.049768101 -0.001384422 9 1685 0.045757491 0.046796456 0.001038966 |
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haha rocket. It's not too difficult to do from scratch, but easier with the spreadsheet [;)]
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Just an observation, but in the tiny sample of 18 results provided so far, the "frequency" number seems to also be following Benford's Law.
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Leading digit...Observed...(Expected)
1 31.1% (30.1%) 2 17.6% (17.6%) 3 11.6% (12.5%) 4 10.0% (9.7%) 5 7.7% (7.9%) 6 6.3% (6.7%) 7 5.9% (5.8%) 8 4.7% (5.1%) 9 5.1% (4.6%) |
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Rocket has apparently been banned for life from the forum
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Hope that's not true, he's one of the good guys around here.
Any idea what he did? |
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Strange One.
Don't know what he said, Alex TWR has a thread on football saying he told him on twitter |
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I think it was down to comments on the riots. Don't know exactly what was said or in what context but some are saying he made racist comments, I didn't see the thread(s) so it's just what others are saying.
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Rocket is an extremely straight type of person and I can full imagine how he would have been totally outraged by those shameful riots.
So perhaps understandable to a large extent. He'll be back stronger than ever, I'm sure. A nice forced rest never does anyone any harm. If anyone else on here knows him personally, tell his absence is missed even by me. |
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Cheers.
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Lots of people I know (virtually all) are making supposed racist comments about the looting, arson and mindless vandalism of other peoples property by those brain dead idiots that have grown up in a culture that makes them think they're untouchable. If majority view means anything perhaps the people making those comments are correct.
One of the reasons the outrageous thieving occurred is that in the UK political correctness has gone stark raving mad. If young people are made to feel invincible through ever more nannying human rights legislation, then they will one day act as if they're invincible. The police had to stand around like lemons because they were so fearful of the repercussions from striking the louts with their batons in our mad compensation society that rewards dishonesty, fraud and incompetence, that has been created by clever greedy lawyers that use bombardment advertising of their evil product. I imagine Rocket spoke the whole truth, good on him, but shamefully that is not permitted in today's UK, at least not at this present time. |
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@RockettotheFAC3
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One of the reasons the outrageous thieving occurred is that in the UK political correctness has gone stark raving mad. If young people are made to feel invincible through ever more nannying human rights legislation, then they will one day act as if they're invincible.
The vast majority of the stealing is done at the top and they really are untouchable because white collar fraud is now the UK's number one industry. |
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Think you're overanalysing a bit their Trevh. Don't think human rights had much to do with it. Simply a case of realising that if 'everyone' is doing it, police resources will be spread extremely thin, and the chance of getting caught drops rapidly.
Police being fearful is nothing new. At New Year I saw a group of guys fighting each other, and one was threatening to smash a bottle over the other's head. There were police officers just around the corner. I told them what was going on, and they casually responded 'we might have a look later'. Police are important, but often they will assert authority when they can easily do so, rather than when it is most urgent. |
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^
And who can blame them really |
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An extreme example yes, but if the police were ordered to shoot looters on sight, the looting wouldn't have lasted long or have spread to other cities.
The thieving thugs need discipline from early on in their lives, especially by teachers, but instead of being able to do that the teachers are literally being told to f*ck off by the kids who know they're untouchable. How I'd love to see the shock on their untouchable faces as they're caned across the backside while exclaiming "you can't do this to me, I'm gonna claim compensation". It can only get worse in pc Britain. |
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Investor : Think you're overanalysing a bit their Trevh. Don't think human rights had much to do with it. Simply a case of realising that if 'everyone' is doing it, police resources will be spread extremely thin, and the chance of getting caught drops rapidly.
Not at all Investor. If police resources were right down to zero this sort of disgraceful thieving would not happen in a disciplined law fearing society. |
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you sound like a daily mail reader trevh
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