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bf_fananatic
07 Aug 11 02:00
Joined:
Date Joined: 17 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 12,682 | Blogger: bf_fananatic's blog
In the last decade we have seen many technological innovations, and dot com giants emerging on the global INTERNET scene and the revolution in I.T shows no signs of slowing down!

From google, ebay, amazon, facebook, youtube, betfair, tweeter, the list goes on and on and  endless applications of super servers linked to smart software and equally smart users seems to snowball and make connections into new business fields on a ever increasing super information highway rampage.

If there is a demand for something then this super highway floods with prospective companies hoping and sometimes winning
the first frontier dot com businesses .

One area of this revolution that will be most familiar to most readers of this post is the revolution in betting companies that have
made many inroads into new and alternative betting systems as well as bringing existing betting companies up to I.T
speed on the demand for a slice in the lucrative business that the INTERNET promises and so punctually always delivers.

Sporting exchanges have been the leaders in this betting revolution offering punters the exciting prospect of betting at
superior odds compared to  traditional bookmakers books and have seen the greatest areas of growth in the on line gambling.
world and users have had the added bonus of being the first breed of gamblers that gain acceptance by exchange companies if they fall in the bracket of "never stop winning" and perhaps this quotation is the best slogan that expresses the ideals of sporting exchange companies.

So whats new news in all the information I have brought to you this far, well in a nut shell nothing, but thats because thats where the past ends and the exciting future begins, although Internet betting has done very well so far in its diversity and its growth there is so much more ground to be made that the volume and betting models we see now will be quite different in 5,10 or 15 years time and to coin an old phrase "we ain't seen nothing yet"

Consider how many countries are as yet untapped mega pools of hungry gamblers willing and quite able but because of international legislation tied down by different taxation and licensing laws, sporting organization concerns, old fashion betting institution loyalties and just plain old red tape and technology drag these hopeful mega pools just cant make the bet they so dearly want.

These lessons and problems are becoming of so familar to the now well established betfair company as it tries to gain new betting customer bases around the world and other betting companies are also finding the same problems connecting with the
customers that want them but just ain't getting a piece of the action.

So here we have the problem , customers want something somewhere in the world and betting companies run into so many issues getting to them or just being blocked completely through international legislation.

So how was this problem dealt with in the past?

Well we can all remember the stories of pre-gambling law revision Britain when illegal bookmakers took bets for people
under the counter and proves the old law that "where theres a will theres always a way" and supply will always somehow meet demand. but times have changed now and things don't have to be organized under a counter, a back room at certain address etc, we have the Internet to do all our business on and the biggest underground revolution has been the
peer to peer sites where anything can be swapped or traded without breaking laws or inviting law suits as people need
to have certain freedoms upheld in the modern world if the free world is ever to have any worth!

So in my view not that I in any way advocate it we could see a new revolution in betting if someone goes that one step further
and rather like the social networks and the p2p that we all know and use ,someone may design a way of betting where persons for a small charge can post bets through a system that then makes bets on persons behalf on a variety of betting platforms in any part of the world without fear of being hijacked by the big sticks in the legal world and opens doors in betting that up to now seem truly locked .

What these new betting portals will look like and how they will work operate we can only speculate on but it seems
there prospective dawning is as bright on the horizon as the rising sun!
Pause Switch to Standard View I predict a new era of internet...
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Report Eat_your_greens August 7, 2011 2:16 AM BST
Great, Smashing, Super.......Does this bright horizon have an API?
Report iz77778 August 7, 2011 2:18 AM BST
bff, who wrote that article? and what are you not betting on today??
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 2:26 AM BST
The providence of foresight wrote that article, what are your programming interests Iz77778, I noticed your listed in the developers forum?
Report iz77778 August 7, 2011 2:31 AM BST
not a lot, just like to see what's up. have you had any bets today bff?
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 2:35 AM BST
To underline how the mechanism of this "movement in on-line betting" can be verified you need only look at the huge list of pokersites that have actually took bets from countries that challenge the rights of players and companies but because a poker game has to be visibly real-time, on-line somewhere the business cant be  inducted transparently like making a bet on a timed event can be.

Of course I in no way advocate or agree with such a business venture but the fact is,subliminal business is a true market force and cant be under-estimated!
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 2:38 AM BST
"subliminal business operation" [correction].ok, thanks for the answer and in answer I wont be making a bet for some limited time.
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 2:53 AM BST
An interesting possible adaptation of an exchange model that conforms to the profile of a social network and/or p2p would be where members play with say tokens which the members buy and sell to each other in a auction style market. The beads have no definable value thus and being affected by legislation is less likely, the site charges a subscription charge to users or maybe tokens are charged as a transaction fee that can be re-liquidated by the company.

The possible variations in an on line gambling business are only limited by imagination!
Report iz77778 August 7, 2011 2:55 AM BST
have you had any bets today bff?

i'll take that as a 'no'.....
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 2:58 AM BST
Do many successful businesses rely on an API, the answer is noLaugh[;)]!
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 2:59 AM BST
There is a bug in the smileys widget, I get two faces for the price of one!
Report iz77778 August 7, 2011 3:03 AM BST
why no bets bff?
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 3:04 AM BST
On the basis that most success is by a process of steps,
"never start something that you havent finished"
Report iz77778 August 7, 2011 3:08 AM BST
oh, i see......it's a 'knowledge that proves false can hurt you, knowledge that proves true can really hurt you'......sort of thing, interesting.
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 3:19 AM BST
The biggest untapped field where a new "super betting platform" may emerge is on facebook, one need only look at the popularity of the betting exchange, convert the currency into tokens, adapt a floating token value, a few more legislation proof smoke and mirrors and you have a killer betting company linked to an ever growing worldwide customer base!
Report iz77778 August 7, 2011 3:23 AM BST
"super betting platform"

bff, would you actually bet on this platform.....or just hang out in the forum?
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 3:34 AM BST
People have often cited that the Internet cannot be policed, well it certainly is monitored and legislated but legislation can be beaten by the processes that are inherent in legislation, one being
accuracy of business type, another being mode of business type and identity of users and there locations and even cloning of accepted business type, by super-graying these conformities ,legislation can be and is beaten!

All my predictions are personal opinions and in no way reflect on actual events or ventures current or future!
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 3:35 AM BST
Ha Ha , love your point, I do like to hang out dont I [;)]
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 3:38 AM BST
I have trouble "hanging in" with the status quo of opinion on this forum without contemplating the time wasted hanging on anywhere!
Report iz77778 August 7, 2011 3:41 AM BST
so as it stands, your stats are -


forums posts - 706

bets on the exchange - 0


correct?
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 4:02 AM BST
Perhaps betfair should consider that there are different routes to all parts of the world and different delivery systems possible so a variation on a theme might make them a lot of money if
they design it with legislation stealth and more social networking connectivity, this forum itself is testament to the peoples power of connecting for common causes that can live within a system that tolerates them with there own legislation, so is another example of "the power of freedom"
but I shall try to refrain from political ideologies when referring to the business of connecting the gambling world together in what ever guise !
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 4:04 AM BST
Quite correct iz777778, but we all spend at least a third of our lives dis-connected from reality and in a dream state so whats your point?
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 4:06 AM BST
And on that not I shall retire , good night
Report iz77778 August 7, 2011 4:12 AM BST
point being bff that most people of here have paid thousands in commission that is used to by betfair to keep the exchange operating.

so far your contribution has been zero.

some people's contributions are now running at 40% - 60%, and you come on here and deride their complaints.

do you see the problem here?
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 11:49 AM BST
You do have an interesting point and I will always answer to constructive criticism as opposed to persons who lower to derisory comments and inflammatory remarks.

So you propose that a customers right to speak about an issue on the forum should be proportional to there involvement with the issue itself but in the case you refer to this implies that the commissions and charges payed are payment to the company to then complain about the charges on what is a free to use forum?

As I looked at both sides of the premium charge, its possible and probable reasons for its evolution
and the NET effect to the average betfair customer and those on charges and I can conclude my over-all opinion in one phrase.

Customers if on the top rate of premium charge can still make the largest profits in the betting world but now on a more sustainable betting model system, and is the self enriching ethos of customers more important long term than the success of the betfair company itself?

Would more money sitting in the personal banks of the very few commercialized gamblers be as beneficial to all betfair customers in the future as money diverted back into betfair profits?
well that answer is NO.

It costs a pretty penny to advertise and promote a dot com giant and fuel its global expansion that operates on a margin profit and the British government is tipped to do a u-turn now on a 15% tax on offshore betting even though it will have a bigger negative effect on marginal companies like betfair that not so long ago where praised by the same British government.

I would personally have no reservations about being charged pc1 or pc2 in the future because my bigger picture would be personal liquidity on a very attractive scale from a betting service provider that towers over all betting companies in terms of realistic maximum profit volume and
offers more markets than any other betting company around.

For me I cannot complain about a charge I never had the privilege of not paying as indeed a lot of
other well established players have had and have happily banked millions of losing customers coffers
in a non Eco-friendly fashion!
Report iz77778 August 7, 2011 2:56 PM BST
bff, if a pc payer on 60% wants to make a 100 quid profit at the odds of 2, how much does he have to bet?
Report pmbets August 7, 2011 3:06 PM BST
Answer is NOT to bet as winners  cannot win in the conventional way.
Report kohaku August 7, 2011 3:19 PM BST
Bff is certainly thinking outside the box,which is a pleasant surprise for this place.
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 3:43 PM BST
Iz77778 that question you ask is quite loaded as the premium charge is not directly linked to odds, what you should be telling yourself  is (40% of x) is greater than (97% of (x/12)) which is the formula any pro-punter would be facing if considering using the nearest rival exchange service provider or have you fallen for betducks abuse of the matched bets figures, I would love for betfair to use the same system so that average greyhound race on BF would say matched £80,000 plus and horse racing average matched at BF would say £6,000,000 plus but betfair prefer to be fair about what matched really means.

Take your time working it out because far to many will never need to use that formula though will constantly bore me and others to death complaining about paying there charges,I have tried to open up threads looking at other matters  or future betting possibilities but somehow you and others drag in the same old pop at the charging systemShocked!
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 3:48 PM BST
in respect to my last post please replace 97% of (x/12) with 97% of (x/6) for greyhound races as they have 6 runners and horse racing I assume average is 12 runners though this figure may be higher!
Report iz77778 August 7, 2011 3:52 PM BST
bff, the answer is 160. the pc punter has to take out an extra 60 quid from the exchange to get his 100.

next question - from who did this extra 60 come from?
Report iz77778 August 7, 2011 4:01 PM BST
bff, the answer is - a losing customer.

next question - who recieves this 60 quid in the end?
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 4:30 PM BST
The company that pioneered the betting exchange recieves the £60 and then goes off to find new customers , new markets, new products, new advertising as they have been doing for 10 years to secure there place as the biggest betting platform in the world, next quesion[;)]
Report Mr.Angry August 7, 2011 4:38 PM BST
bf_fantastic - they didn't secure their place as the biggest betting platform in the world by charging 60% commission.

A quick question for you: for how many of the next 10 years do you think Betfair will be the biggest betting platform in the world when it becomes widely known that punters will lose 60% of their potential profits?
Report Feck N. Eejit August 7, 2011 4:48 PM BST
The company that pioneered the betting exchange recieves the £60 and then goes off to find new customers

Meanwhile the person they've took the £60 off bad mouths them to all and sundry and they in turn ....

It must be getting harder and harder for betfair to find prospective new customers who haven't heard "they charge 60% commission" regardless of how untrue that quote is. The bookmakers hang on to their losers. Betfair have theirs killed off in return for 60% of the organs.
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 4:58 PM BST
Well one critic wrote that the premium charge is like premier footballers missing a weeks wage as surely these guys with quarter of a million banked are not in any real financial mess , quite the opposite in fact!
Report Feck N. Eejit August 7, 2011 5:03 PM BST
I doubt anyone who was the full shilling would equate having 1/52th of your money being docked to having 31.2/52ths docked.
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 5:33 PM BST
Well if you were on the pc2 then you would be betting quite big to arrive at that amount of profit so then you would bet as big as possible to make more profit, your maximum bet on betfair in a horse race would be much greater by at least 10 fold so in theory you make a lot more profit, anyone not maximizing the bet size and happy to bet at the other markets liquidity capacity would notice more profit possible by the rival but would never reach the biggest potential profit by using a much bigger
exchange with bigger stakes and paying the pc2, its all relative but most pro-punters will be trying to maximise there bet size to maximise there profits!
Report bf_fananatic August 7, 2011 5:35 PM BST
its how you percieve a maximum profit against all the market forces and charges available!
waiting for a rival to even get near to betfairs lead will take far to long and is little hope
for customers who need profits now and not in 10 or twenty years time!
Report Mr.Angry August 7, 2011 6:00 PM BST
Would it be in Betfair's interest to advertise "We charge big winners 60%"?

If this is so good for the Exchange, then surely they would do well to advertise this, as it gives them a stable platform for the future?

What do you think, bf_fanatic?
Report Eddie the eagle August 9, 2011 3:05 AM BST
iz77778
07 Aug 11 14:56   

bff, if a pc payer on 60% wants to make a 100 quid profit at the odds of 2, how much does he have to bet?



iz77778
07 Aug 11 15:52   

bff, the answer is 160. the pc punter has to take out an extra 60 quid from the exchange to get his 100.


I take it maths wasn't your strongest subject at school ?
Report iz77778 August 9, 2011 3:13 AM BST
point being eddie that to get a net return of 100, the pc payer has to invest 160 at the odds of 2.
Report Eddie the eagle August 9, 2011 3:16 AM BST
Still incorrect.
Report iz77778 August 9, 2011 3:19 AM BST
what have i missed?
Report Eddie the eagle August 9, 2011 3:24 AM BST
A lot.  just go through the processes of that 160 bet and you'll see.
Report bf_fananatic August 9, 2011 7:04 AM BST
Eddie the eagle is spot on as usual in his posts, good to see his understanding of mathematics is
much higher than the average exchange player seems to be according to this forum
Report Eddie the eagle August 9, 2011 7:30 AM BST
Could you answer the question correct ?
Report bf_fananatic August 9, 2011 7:39 AM BST
I could try to answer if you ask me the question with the full information in respect to say
Bets/wins/returns(odds), I presume its a win cycle he must refer to over a chargeable, weekly period
as one bet that always wins is not a good example to use to calculate a charge on a realistic period
of profit activity!
Report bf_fananatic August 9, 2011 7:42 AM BST
The way he perceives the pc eddie is like a child playing marbles and winning only a broken 40% peice of a marble when the win has to contain some form of whole unit! If it were conkers then he may win 40% of the opponents conker with a good smash [;)]
Report Eddie the eagle August 9, 2011 7:43 AM BST
bff, if a pc payer on 60% wants to make a 100 quid profit at the odds of 2, how much does he have to bet?

That is the question. To little information to make a correct calculation, but let's say this guy is on 60 % PC and this is the only bet he is having that week.
Report bf_fananatic August 9, 2011 7:55 AM BST
I see and lets say it wins as the calculation needs a win to make the profit and charge else its
a simple loss, requirement formula(100/2)*offset formula(100/40)=£125Blush
Report Eddie the eagle August 9, 2011 8:00 AM BST
No, not correct.
Report bf_fananatic August 9, 2011 8:00 AM BST
He could elect to make a 100 pound bet at korals or hills at same odds and if the bet frequency was 1 a week that wins then choosing a different bookie every week he could avoid refusal, but if betting frequency was 50 bets a day his profit project would grind to a halt within days if every selection won
[;)]
Report Eddie the eagle August 9, 2011 8:03 AM BST
Not only could, he would have to go elsewhere if he wanted such a bet, even if odds was much worse elsewhere.
Report bf_fananatic August 9, 2011 8:03 AM BST
£125 staked at 2/1 would return £375 minus the stake , gross profit is £250, after a 60% charge is net profit £100, have I missed something out or error in calculation?
Report Eddie the eagle August 9, 2011 8:05 AM BST
Ok, just a misunderstanding. The bet wasn't @ 2/1, it was @ evens.
  You are correct if it was @ 2/1.
Report bf_fananatic August 9, 2011 8:12 AM BST
Most punters forget 3 simple facts when considering bookmakers as credible alternative service providers to sporting exchanges

1....There is at least a 2/1 ratio in lays to backs, the lays cannot be bet at any bookmaker
thus canceling out the pc charge directly in comparative betting amounts not counting the deficit in poorer odds by the bookmaker.

2....maximum bets in bookmakers are actually £200 sometimes as many bookmakers dont except
larger bets, betfairs maximum is much larger

3.....persistent winners are not tolerated in bookmakers so there can be no advantage possible
Report bf_fananatic August 9, 2011 8:14 AM BST
Sorry Eddie last post does not refer to you but to most bookmaker lovers, the home of losers [;)]
Report bf_fananatic August 9, 2011 8:20 AM BST
A lot of complainers of the pc who in my estimation from a lack of understanding of how to create a persistent profit are rather like school children dreaming of having a key to a sweet shop and then waking up screaming when the dream goes wrong and the headmaster appears saying

"give 60% of the sweets back tommy"

The fact it is far more sweets than the average boy needs to eat and is not fixed to how many times he goes in the shop is no pleasing tommy as he hates giving any of his sweets awayCry
Report Gerbs August 9, 2011 5:54 PM BST
£125 staked at 2/1 would return £375 minus the stake , gross profit is £250, after a 60% charge is net profit £100, have I missed something out or error in calculation?


and some people think its ok for him to get 4/5 about a 2/1 shot
betfair take no risk but get more than he does if it wins
Report JML August 9, 2011 6:42 PM BST
Nice advertising for ****.

Bet £125 at 2/1 with us and win between £243.75 and £245

Bet £125 at 2/1 with betfair and win between £93.75 and £245.
Report nairda August 9, 2011 7:21 PM BST
he has to bet 250
Report iz77778 August 10, 2011 2:55 AM BST
apologies to all, i humbly accept the 'numpty of the week' award for this week.....

60% = 250
40% = 167
20% = 125
Report JML August 10, 2011 1:50 PM BST
The correct answer is in fact more than £250 because you don't get
full value for commission paid.

In fact total charges can rise to 62.5%
Report bf_fananatic August 10, 2011 1:57 PM BST
Thats an interesting point JML , betfair has now a major problem in core product as it has not addressed the fact that new customers, average customers and big winners are lumped together in
one market so that when implimenting charges to the whole spoting exchange it has a negative perception.

I believe a classed system where new/occasional/small to medium bettors could enjoy no pc charge
in capped liquidity market and pro traders/bettors/bookmakers play in an unlimited liquidity
extended market with pc would of been a much better format and allow more value for small players!
Report bf_fananatic August 21, 2011 3:48 PM BST
I will seed my own threads rather than have silly ones at the topBlush
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