General Betting £100 --- 6 month forum Challenge !!

yeah mate, I was asking what was wrong with doing £1.30 @ 1/2 ...

BET 1) Borrusia Dortmund to bt Hamburg @ 4/7 (SJ) £5 to win £2.86
German Bundesliga - 19:30 KO - 5th August 2011

Schalke. Given that the starting bank is £100 it would take 30 bets at those odds to win around twenty pounds. Using your own strategy (the 1 to 7 challenge thread) one would only have to have the £100 on a 1 to 5 chance to cover the 30 bets that must all win. You take my point and please do not tell me that the 1 to 5 chance could get beat because if you do you are then missing the point of my question.

I have read that a few times and I honestly have no idea what your on about .... all I asked was, what is wrong with someone sticking £1.30 on a 1/2 shot, it's his bet he can stick what he likes on it.

Schalke. As the rules of the competition state that the winner is the one with the most money at the end and not the one who has had the most winners I would have thought that it is pretty obvious as to what I am on about

hey rocket to the face = dortmund were awesome value tonight, but i still havn't been piad any winnings, any reason why?

just spoke to bet 365 on live chat, and i asked them, they said i need to wait on the result to be paid ... and i said, but there is people on betfair that say you don't need results, just the value, he didn't even reply to me ??????

only a guess schalke but I think betfair have run out of cash

One of my work mates booked up a holiday, he got a two week stay in America, 2 adults and 2 kids for £1800 or something, attractions thrown in, he was saying how good value it was, a fantastic deal ... but then the travel company went bust = kids "oh daddy daddy, I want to go to america" ... sorry kids we won't be going, but hey, tell all your friends at school it's ok because your daddy got great value !!

Schalke, will you be laughing when my bot thrashes you with pure value?  [;)]

Takethestand +£61.36
Catflappo ZERO
SCHALKE 04 LESS THAN TTS
Investor2 DUNNO



Will be out tomorrow so a chance to catch up

takethestand
Date Joined: 30 Sep 05
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When: 05 Aug 11 18:47
Joined:
Date Joined: 30 Sep 05
| Topic/replies: 2,326 | Blogger: takethestand's blog
£70 on at 1.05 1+goals in anderlecht match

not all match but i think i'm at front of q


Friday night plans......repair shower screenSad, clean extractor fanCry and cut lino to sizePlain

the mrs sittin on erse watchin top model


Followed you in on that one TTS, nice work!

Soccer > Anderlecht v KV Mechelen : Total Goals     Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections
Selection     Odds     Stake(£)     Bid type     Placed     Profit/loss(£)
1 goals or more     1.05     1,507.34     Back     05-Aug-11 19:11     75.37
*Average odds: On Off     Back subtotal:     75.37
Lay subtotal:     0.00
Market subtotal:     75.37
Commission @ 3.5%:     2.64
Net Market Total:     72.73

   
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT     
? 
     unless otherwise stated.

Lost a small amount on the match overall though.

are you on this thread to challenge or learn from the master

Bet 5 OB v Brondby: Back OB @ 1.9091 for £1.00

hehe [;)] I was behind you in the queue tts, so no harm done right?

Bet 6 Tottenham v Athletic Bilbao: Draw @ 4.33 for £2.50 wil

Bet 7 France U20 v Mali U 20: France U20 @ 1.2222 for £1.50 888

(Due to rounding, staking to take advantage is possible, but as my bets are larger than this anyway, I won't bother with that).

Bet 8 Colombia U20 v South Korea U20: South Korea U20 @ 7.00 for £0.25 bsq

Bet 9 Banfield v Atletico Rafaela: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.615 for £4.00 888

Bet 8 doubled up so it is now a whopping

Bet 8 Colombia U20 v South Korea U20: South Korea U20 @ 7.00 for £0.50 bsq

My bot is £86.85 up

catfleppo Joined: 22 Feb 07
Replies: 271 05 Aug 11 14:29   
Lori, usually the idiot setting the parameters

nice

(FWIW I'm glad I didn't enter this challenge, your bot has a lot of my golf monies today)

catfleppo Joined: 22 Feb 07
Replies: 271 06 Aug 11 00:27   
My bot is £86.85 up


In that case, it only has some of my golf monies

good to see your bot get the required results catfleppo

Rocket : FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK.


I'm done with you.

Hehe, there's none so blind as those that will not see. But hey it doesn't matter, in fact it's for the best :)

Anyone want to match my offer of Catfleppo winning this challenge?

I believe there are 4 runners?

I want to back 'Catfleppo and value bot' for £100 at 1.95, any takers?

If so we will have a gentlemen's agreement to be settled at the end of the event via paypal :)

If catfleppo is using a bot for this I aint posting another bet ....

bets MUST be posted up in advance ... otherwise it's a pointless challenge

The whole thing kicked off because you wanted to demonstrate that outcome guessing can beat value betting, Schalke, so how can Catfleppo's use of a bot to obtain the value he seeks be deemed inappropriate? I just don't get it.

If I wanted to challenge someone at arithmetic and they suddenly pulled out a calculator then the challenge would be OFF !!!

This isn't about a computer programme finding bets it's about that individual finding bets, he claims that he can find value and make it win (with results I might add) .... so, the challenge was to see what catfleppo considers value compared to what I find value, oh and I don't just try find winning btes, I try find winning bets with good prices.

I wouldn't use a bot for a £100 challenge against anyone so why the **** should he !!

He wants to take me on in a proper challenge then he knows what to do, but the fact he has even made a bot up in the first place shows he hasn't got a clue about finding value in a bet, and you know why, because value only exists in what you find, other peoples opinion of what is value and what isn't is totally different .... catfleppo doesn't win getting value, he wins getting results, without results nobody in betting can win, not even a bookmaker, not you, not me, not the little dog at no54 round the corner ... this isn't about value v winners, there is no such thing, it's about me finding value and catfleppo finding value

for a start, a bot can place bets at a rate a human can't, he can place bets when not even on the computer, not so for me ... I'll be lucky if I do on average a bet a day .... yeah, thats a fair challenge

The challnge should be more strict, this feels like something amarillo slim would be involved in, two hustlers trying to get an edge ... but a computer, get tae

I'm bored with this already ... whole lot £102.86 on Peterhead to bt Clyde @ 5/4 !!

Schalke : catfleppo doesn't win getting value, he wins getting results, without results nobody in betting can win, not even a bookmaker, not you, not me

Schalke believe me one last time, you really do not understand the concept of value betting, I don't state that as an opinion but rather a fact, trust me for once on that.

Here we have a clear chance to demonstrate that even though Catfleppo doesn't predict any results he will attempt to make a profit, hence the point of the thread, but you don't want to see it.

I said before that I don't predict results I just predict odds, and in doing that accurately I can guarantee a profit as a percentage of bets placed. I have no idea if individual bets will win or lose and don't care, over time I will win and lose them proportionately to the odds I've calculated, my profit being my mark up on the odds.

I'm not going to respond any more on the subject as I know it's futile, so like Rocket, I'm done on the subject.

cat, £86 up over how many bets & days?

Are you going to be posting your bets, or just amount won?

Bet 10 Man City v Man Utd : Man Utd @ 2.40 for £1.00 wil

Bet 11 Benfica v Arsenal : Benfica @ 2.60 for £0.50 wil

Bet 12 Coventry v Leicester : Leicester @ 2.15 for £1.20 wil

Bet 13 Paris St-G v Lorient @ 1.615 for £0.50 wil

correction: Bet 13 Paris St-G v Lorient Paris St-G @ 1.615 for £0.50 wil
Bet 14 Brighton v Doncaster: Brighton @ 1.909 for £0.50 wil

No guts, no glory

£50 on All Blacks to mullify Aussies at 1.3.

£3 on Alloa to beat Stranrear at 2.32

catfleppo     06 Aug 11 00:27 
My bot is £86.85 up

to be fair, anyone can say that.  My bot is up £86.86 since yesterday - ffs

Not everyone can say it truthfully.

It's £72.72 now.

Trevh, it will take hundred's possibly thousand's of bets over the weekend and to some extent Schalke is right (for a change) to say this is unfair.  However in another way it serves to illustrate the point perfectly.  I place many bets over the course of the weekend each, on average, with a tiny piece of value and by the end of the weekend I have a profit.  If I took one bet per tournament I would still make a profit but over a much longer term. 

If I win in this way by value, and value alone, surely it proves my point?

Schalke : catfleppo doesn't win getting value, he wins getting results, without results nobody in betting can win, not even a bookmaker, not you, not me

Schalke : He is totally clueless about finding good value, value only exists with the required amount of results .... Catfleppo, you are a total bottle merchant !!

Schalke :  all you need to do is find value and you will win, thats how simple you say it is ... you are simply full of sh!t catfleppo!

I am now in a winning position on the Bridgestone Invitational golf tournament winner market.  By this I mean have an entirely 'green book' and if I place no more bets from now until the tournaments conclusion I will make at least £72.72.  I have made money, without any results, just by finding value.

Schalke : just spoke to bet 365 on live chat, and i asked them, they said i need to wait on the result to be paid ... and i said, but there is people on betfair that say you don't need results, just the value, he didn't even reply to me ??????

Go back on live chat and tell them that catflappo can withdraw, right now, the £72.72 that he has already won on the Bridgestone Invitational golf tournament winner market. I think you, me and bet365 will all agree that this tournament hasn't finished yet.  If they ask how, just say 'value'. [;)]

Prove what point? Your bot still needs results to win .... unless of course your bot is constantly trading which is totally different

Read my last post  [;)]

I did, no bookmaker or exchange pay out without settlments ...

Fair play if you are making money on it though, won't take that away from you, but why do you limit your bot to just golf? Why not expand into other outright markets?

catfloppo are you going to post your bets though?

Well, the point is I have made money on this market just from value alone.  I can withdraw it and spend it if I like, without waiting for the result.  This is exactly what you have been saying is impossible.

No Investor2, I will post some stats at the end of the tournament.

Sorry, TheInvestor2...

Ok cat, that's something at least. So you are operating with a max total liability of £100 right?

Bet 15 Hibernian v Sunderland: Sunderland @ 1.8333 for £2.00

Yes, at no point over the weekend will I have a 'red' of over £100.

How can you withdraw profit without a settlement?

Anytime I have been ALL green on every selection in an outright market I still need to wait on Betfair to settle the market ...

Depends on the market Schalke.

Well, I haven't actually tried it.  It's not really the point anyway.

Anyway, you wouldn't make a penny if the golf event was cancelled ...

You're not thinking of sabotaging it are you?

Bet 16 Ecuador U20 v Costa Rica U20 : Ecuador U20 at 2.25 for £4.00 wil

only in your favor lol ...

Takethestand +£79.37 (and woods lay is safe)
The field - trailing behind



Wish i'd punted Alloa more

Got £50 waiting to be matched at 1.07 VVV v Utrecht.  2hours 15 till kickoff

£14.90 at 1.07 and rest at 1.06

Bet 17 De Graafschap v Ajax : Ajax @ 1.364 for £2.00 lad

Bet 18 Porto v Guimaraes : Porto @ 1.364 for £3.00 lad

Bet 19 Sint Truiden v Club Brugge: Club Brugge @ 1.728 for £1.00 lad

Bet 20 G-Osaka v Kukuoka : Correct Score 3-2 @ 34 for £0.40 lad

Investor, Schalke's rule number 4 was that all bets must be put up in fractions...


hehe :) I'm sure he was joking though.

Takethestand +£29.37 (and woods lay is safe)
The field - trailing behind


Paid the price for even attepting to beat the bot.  Inevitable i suppose.  Got value though for all the fookin use that was

Keep getting value and it will pay off.  There is no other way...

£107.19 up

£107.20 up

heading to Isle of Arran to climb goatfell on the morrow.

Lay Bangladesh at 9 to win £6.  Back monday night

dlarssonf will say he climbed higher

Bet 21 West Ham v Cardiff Half Time / Full Time : Cardiff / Cardiff @ 10 for £0.50

No catfleppo, I can't seem to find any value in climbing

Bet 1 Djurgardens v GAIS: Back Djurgardens
Bet 2 Anzhi Makhachkala v Tomsk: Back Anzhi
Bet 3 Reading v Millwall: Back Reading
Bet 4 Pohang Steelers v Busan lPark: Back Pohang Steelers
Bet 5 OB v Brondby: Back OB
Bet 6 Tottenham v Athletic Bilbao: Draw
Bet 7 France U20 v Mali U 20: France U20
Bet 8 Colombia U20 v South Korea U20: South Korea U20
Bet 9 Banfield v Atletico Rafaela: Under 2.5 goals
Bet 10 Man City v Man Utd : Man Utd
Bet 11 Benfica v Arsenal : Benfica
Bet 12 Coventry v Leicester : Leicester
Bet 13 Paris St-G v Lorient: Paris St-G
Bet 14 Brighton v Doncaster: Brighton
Bet 15 Hibernian v Sunderland: Sunderland
Bet 16 Ecuador U20 v Costa Rica U20 : Ecuador U20
Bet 17 De Graafschap v Ajax : Ajax
Bet 18 Porto v Guimaraes : Porto
Bet 19 Sint Truiden v Club Brugge: Club Brugge
Bet 20 G-Osaka v Kukuoka : Correct Score 3-2
Bet 21 West Ham v Cardiff Half Time / Full Time : Cardiff / Cardiff


Bet    Odds    Stake    Profit    Cumulative Profit
01    2.2500    £2.50    -£2.50    -£2.50
02    1.5000    £1.30    +£0.65    -£1.85
03    2.0000    £2.50    -£2.50    -£4.35
04    2.0000    £5.00    +£5.00    +£0.65
05    1.9091    £1.00    +£0.91    +£1.56
06    4.3300    £2.50    -£2.50    -£0.94
07    1.2222    £1.50    +£0.33    -£0.61
08    7.0000    £0.50    -£0.50    -£1.11
09    1.6150    £4.00    +£2.46    +£1.35
10    2.4000    £1.00    +£1.40    +£2.75
11    2.6000    £0.50    +£0.80    +£3.55
12    2.1500    £1.20    +£2.58    +£6.13
13    1.6150    £0.50    -£0.50    +£5.63
14    1.9090    £0.50    +£0.45    +£6.09
15    1.8333    £2.00    -£2.00    +£4.09
16    2.2500    £4.00    +£5.00    +£9.09
17    1.3640    £2.00    +£0.73    +£9.81
18    1.3640    £3.00    +£1.09    +£10.91
19    1.7280    £1.00    -£1.00    +£9.91
20    34.0000    £0.40    -£0.40    +£9.51
21    10.0000    £0.50    -£0.50    +£9.01


ROI: 24.08%
bankroll growth: 9.01%

Very good so far Investor. Do you only do football?

Thnx Trevh, yes 99%+ football.
I prefer trading though.

Bridgestone Invitational

Back bets: 0
Lay beys: 5511
Bets on 73 of the 76 runners
Average stake: 2.76
Average odds: 178
Gross profit: 113.19
Net profit with commission at 5%: 107.53

New bank: £207.53

Schalke, this profit has been made entirely without any human intervention, no knowledge, no skill, no intuition, no guessing, just value!  I hope you can accept now that value and value alone can make money?

Lori, I hope you picked me off over the weekend [;)]

You won this round cat. My golf results have been getting more and more extreme as I get more confident in the long term though so I'm going to have some accidents.

I imagine the way it panned out was very good for a bot user (not saying you wouldn't do great anyway) as the prices were largely stable for longish periods, meaning you're less at risk to information flow.

Could be wrong, I don't claim to have ever run a bot, although I do have a rough idea how you might go about it

I can see why you would think that and it's probably true of some strategies, mine however works better if the odds chop around a lot, especially if an unfancied player suddenly starts to do well.

Cheers cat.... great result then!

(That's more true for my manual play as well in general)

In all fairness Catfleppo, I am a value merchant but can't understand how you think you have proved you have got value over the weekend.  First of all anybody can post the figure's you have posted , you have proved absolutely nothing and secondly value just can't be judged over one tournament/weekend, its a much longer term/bigger sample before it can be judged.

I can say I won loads over the weekend, it doesn't mean that I have been backing/laying value be it manual or with a bot.   I just don't know how you think anybody, let alone Schalke will believe in value just because you threw some figures up in a thread

Well, bear in mind that this result represents over 5000 bets which is quite a large sample size to judge it on even if it is just over one weekend and one event.  Maybe you will be convinced after 6 month's worth?

With regard to my authenticity, while I concede that I am sad enough to download results into a spreadsheet so I can calculate my average stake and odds for this exercise, I hope the readers here generally appreciate that I am not the sort of person that would post anything (knowingly [:x]) that was untrue or misleading.

With respect catfleppo, you are totally missing my point.......  I am not for one second doubting your authenticity or that you are trying to pull the wool over anybody's eyes, I believe you and if you are making a profit long term brilliant for you. I do not need to see 6 months of data nor do I want to as I am only concerned with my own profit/loss and strategies.

My point is , its meaningless putting up a winning total, whether you like it or not after the event as it proves nothing.  The reason why this thread was started was to put the "value" debate issue to the test or to try show Schalke that maybe he can remove his blinkers, all you are doing is putting up a positive figure which I am afraid proves absolutely nothing

I can't think of any better way of proving it.

You could just copy Schalke's bets precisely until he misses a best price somewhere...

pi$$hed

bulmurs, bckfast nd betfair

ewhats the mext bet guys?

You could just copy Schalke's bets precisely until he misses a best price somewhere...

Until he misses best price? That'll be bet number 1 then

cat, how do you get Average odds: 178, are you staking less than £2?

Bet 22 Liverpool v Sunderland : Sunderland @ 9.00 for £0.75 vc

Bridgestone Invitational

Back bets: 0
Lay beys: 5511
Bets on 73 of the 76 runners
Average stake: 2.76
Average odds: 59.67
Gross profit: 113.19
Net profit with commission at 5%: 107.53

New bank: £207.53

TheInvestor2, I had calculated the average odds rather crudely - it wasn't the average odds per bet but the average of the average for each runner.  Re-calculated for further scrutiny [;)]

I only have bets matched at less than £2 where somebody partially matches them, all offers placed are £2 or above.

Next market, Czech GP, Moto GP Winner.

Max exposure £50.

For this to continue I think we need a bit more structure.  Already lost Schalke 04 i think.  I myself cant motivate myself to compete against a bot.  I respect the fact you've successfully programmed one.  Been on a bit of a bender since monday night and the following are the only two qualifying bets. 

Selection    Odds    Stake(£)    Bid type    Placed    Profit/loss(£)
FTSE100 Down    30.00    3.00    Lay    09-Aug-11 10:50    3.00
*Average odds: On  Off    Back subtotal:    0.00
Lay subtotal:    3.00
Market subtotal:    3.00
Commission @ 5%:    0.15
Net Market Total:    2.85


Tennis > Verdasco v Kamke : 6-0 Set?    Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections
Selection    Odds    Stake(£)    Bid type    Placed    Profit/loss(£)
No    1.01    55.00    Back    09-Aug-11 22:53    0.55
*Average odds: On  Off    Back subtotal:    0.55
Lay subtotal:    0.00
Market subtotal:    0.55
Commission @ 5.45%:    0.03
Net Market Total:    0.52

Total - £43.14

Back    Your
Odds    Your
Stake
   
125 Runs or more
1.02    £110.00
    Ref: 15849898696 Bet matched: 10:56 10-Aug-11
   
1.03    £20.00
    Ref: 15849827693 Bet matched: 10:50 10-Aug-11

Did you make it all the way up?

Czech GP, Moto GP Winner -8.31

New bank: 199.22

This week:

£50 on the belgian gp winner
£50 on the overall qualifying winner