The Investor
I would think that BF would also like a more stable pricing structure, if only for their own cash flow forecasting purposes.
But is the exchange business model itself actually stable yet ?.
Probably they are finding that that discover one example of opportunistic, unfair betting and another reveals itself.
They do seem still to be more reactive than proactive.
I remember somebody once telling me that if you want to profit on a newly formed stock exchange in third world country, then simply get a copy of the NYSE handbook of rules and regulations and apply the opposite. That is virtually every rule has been written to close a loophole after it has already appeared and been exploited materially.

Going back to the original post.  I believe it will be a while before any noticeable change is made.  For the value punters amongst us, drip feeding into 2 exchanges is no simple task and will require a lot of time and testing.  Getting the code wrong is very costly and as such development time is prohibitive.  The simple fact is, no winnning punter will move 100%, however they are at no loss to seed several exchanges... afterall even if only 10% of bets matched elsewhere this will likely result in a 10% reduction in PC.  Also note that the 480 are no longer bothered about keeping their commission at 2% as this no longer matters... so liquidity is likely to drop from this fact alone... as we are seeing in the horse markets.

Though I take less interest in the football markets, I would hazard a guess that these will end up being more liquid at purple due to the less volatility in prices before the off.  Maybe I will take an interest in the coming weeks for this reason alone.

It is sad (to me) because I love betfair, but I think they have finally shot themselves in the foot.

Surely you can all agree that the ideal customer base for an exchange is a huge mass of evenly matched gamblers all doing battle with each other over and over again?

By scaring off those at the top of the food chain the customer base moves a step closer towards the ideal business model.

johnny, you will now be betting against betfair and their bots.......do you think that is going to help the average punter?

iz77778

My post was looking at the position from Betfair's perspective.

PC2 should boost profits - some of the big winners will just stay and pay more.

Some,no doubt, will leave, reducing the number of matched bets but moving the customer base closer to the ideal.

Do you dispute my statement regarding the ideal customer base for an exchange?



Now your reply considers the position of the average punter?

Would they rather do battle with the hardened long term profitable pros and their finely tuned systems or Betfair and their bots? Who knows? Betfair and their bots may not be as good? The pros have proven their abilities over many years after all.

If Betfair and their bots offer me top price (after commission) they can have my business.

Would they rather do battle with the hardened long term profitable pros and their finely tuned systems or Betfair and their bots? Who knows? Betfair and their bots may not be as good? The pros have proven their abilities over many years after all.

If Betfair and their bots offer me top price (after commission) they can have my business.

you will do battle with the pros, even if the pro leave...betfair prices and odds movements will just follow betduck (or where the pros go)

Surely you can all agree that the ideal customer base for an exchange is a huge mass of evenly matched gamblers all doing battle with each other over and over again?

yes that does sound like an ideal customers base.....except that is not betfair and never will be.

you will still get hoovered just as fast by the betfair bots as you did by the fast pic guys and courtsiders. the pc has not and will not changed these outcomes on the exchange - it is just that it will now be betfair taking your money and not another punter.

I agree, Betfair,or indeed any other company, won't ever achieve their perfect customer base but, you should always be looking for ways to move the business in that direction. That's how you build a strong, stable, company able to sustain long term profitability.

Most of us are not stupid - we understand about time delays and dead spots in live action - we just don't get involved when we face a huge negative edge.