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frog2
17 Jul 11 11:03
Joined:
Date Joined: 01 Feb 08
| Topic/replies: 2,201 | Blogger: frog2's blog
Genuine punters on Betfair will face a massive increase in liquidity from tomorrow. With the new Premium Charge Betfair have basically invited those who make too high margin via copycat trading and clock beating tactics to pay their way. The only way they can do this is to churn money in the markets on low margin, or slightly loss making strategies. This will provide a huge boost for genuine punters. Instead of being squeezed by the shell and pea merchants nicking a margin it is time for the copy cat traders to be squeezed by the genuine punters.

Add to this the new Betfair sportsbook. I cannot see Betfair wanting to take risk on those bets. The bets will flow into the exchange with Betfair making a margin offering slightly worse odds through the sportsbook. Money from any anti-exchange countries will now flow into here.

Dont worry about the people who say they are leaving here. Betfair are more than capable of picking up the slack. They probably have the best bot trader in his generation on their payrole. They will have no problem adding liquidity if it is needed for deriviative markets with no Premium Charge and no transaction charges to restrict them.

It is payback time against the copycat traders and fleecers. Betfair and the genuine punters who have supported the exchange from the start will get better prices and more liquidity from tomorrow.
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Report Feck N. Eejit July 18, 2011 12:47 PM BST
You would still have people hammering 50 markets 15 times a second to see what was the queue and trade accordingly. Infact more and more people would have done this causing millions to be wasted by Betfair processing all these requests. Anything that encourages straight punting and discourages high frequency trading has got to be a good thing.

They haven't stopped the hammering just reduced it and done nothing to reduce the trading. What is it they've done to encourage straight betting? Seems to me they've discouraged it by lumping gamblers in with traders.
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 12:49 PM BST
betfairs major ethos and could be legal problem too is they encourage people to bet on a site where winning and making profit is possible and welcomed, then when this happens take it back and treat all money that is placed in there accounts as there own which is acting like a bookmaker, confict of interest on a billion pound turnover scale, impressive
Report Coachbuster July 18, 2011 12:50 PM BST
bf_fananatic     18 Jul 11 10:58 
betfair was built up on the belief that winning was ok and acceptable, that you would have a better chance of winning on betfair than any other betting platform in the world!
_______________

I think BF and almost everyone else (certainly myself) thought that there wouldn't be so many winners head and shoulders above everyone else .....
It's not like we're talking about a few people betting in a card school ...we're talking millions of gamblers far and wide .....why is there such a large discrepancy in ability ,doesn't make sense to me.
Also on the question of fast pics etc ,scammers ,hooverers....if these methods can't be effectively banned why isn't it more publicised amongst the general public ?...and why are so few profiting ?   surely such an easy money route should be attracting millions ? is it as bad to the markets as its painted ?
  Also, would it be so difficult after all these years to revert back to a manually operated betting  site ,banning bots and fast scanning methods ?  I personally like  bots running on here as i think they present good betting ops , but are they good for the public's perception of a betting site and how it should be ?
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 12:51 PM BST
would betcon be a great new name for them
Report zipper July 18, 2011 12:52 PM BST
Calm down Boys   every market will find its own level ....  And this market is no different .....zip
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 12:53 PM BST
if the shares keep dropping, anyone have and predictions what the next pc rate will be

along the current projection it could be %80 back to them in the next 6 months!
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 12:55 PM BST
if they are getting fitted out with bookmakers boots i reckon the big winners are in for a final good kicking at %80 then they will be banned
Report The Magician (100) July 18, 2011 12:56 PM BST
bf_fananatic

do you think BF should charge nobody anything - allow all 'exiting funds' to go to winnners, and for them to be bankrupt in 1 year, and the exchange to close?

clearly they are entitle to make a profit? they are not a charity... if they take too much they risk a competitor gaining ground - so there is some policing of their pricing, by market forces.

you seem to suggest BF have not rights to the funds of losing customers - but then also seem to suggest the winners have some divine right to those deposits.

I am not quite sure how you can suggest a customer has the right to it, but betfair who built the platform don't?
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 12:57 PM BST
i still love betfair though, because i still believe in the dream, is there any hope for me?
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:02 PM BST
because magician, the fact less people have less money too spend in a recession is not the fault of the winners on a platform designed for winning, cant betfair open a seperate bookmakers internet site as a seperate business to gain more money? betfair cant claim to welcome winners if they keep taking more and more off them when they spend to much, float at wrong time, or make a mess of management or business direction.
Report Coachbuster July 18, 2011 1:03 PM BST
depends what the dream is .

If its a millionaire lifestyle with fast cars i wouldn't  bother  Grin
Report The Magician (100) July 18, 2011 1:10 PM BST
bf_fantastic

below is Betfair core exchange T/O for the last 16 quaters and my estimate for the next one also.... a decline in direct exchange turnover and revenue, which is also growing cannot be the driver of the PC - because quite simply it is not delcining.


Q1 FY08     6,526,061,614
Q2 FY08     7,262,034,494
Q3 FY08     6,686,642,262
Q4 FY08     7,808,046,951
Q1 FY09     8,376,222,402
Q2 FY09     7,800,254,276
Q3 FY09     7,953,563,495
Q4 FY09     9,345,545,640
Q1 FY10     9,481,629,199
Q2 FY10     10,200,269,809
Q3 FY10     8,929,361,169
Q4 FY10     10,569,411,981
Q1 FY11     11,868,891,506
Q2 FY11     10,911,834,250
Q3 FY11     10,785,382,204
Q4 FY11     12,022,343,051
Q1 FY12 ***     13,270,112,156
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:12 PM BST
that dream has been revised its now a short term self-sufficient lifestyle with an economical runner
that can retain is price in the view of a colapse of viable exchange market.
Report frog2 July 18, 2011 1:14 PM BST
Feck, very few old style gamblers will be paying the charge. And if they are is it not a price worse paying for liquidity and accounts staying open as opposed to the bookies shutting them down after 5 minutes? Before Betfair I was just gambling and accounts were restricted everywhere. Then Betfair came out and I could get on again at better prices. Commission was always unfair against position players but the overall value was here. Then came the CCTs hammering the exchange further reducing margins on here. The first PC made it clear for all to see that some people were making a lot of money on here for very little to risk. Personal circumstances mean I no longer have time to study form so at the moment I play around with a few trading CCT robots. I think this is what BF want to discourage but from the start them have let it grow and grow. If they can restrict the draining by the CCTs (or encourage them to add churn liquidity) I think this place will improve again for genuine punters.
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:15 PM BST
ok thats a fair comment but thats because of betfairs brilliance at growth and opening new markets, the sports market to me has not increased its liquidity, i seem to remember when some sports markets mainly racing where achieving double the money matched, anyone else agree
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:18 PM BST
if betfair are turning that much money over, whats there problem? are they keeping there profits in the backyard with the gate open?
Report The Magician (100) July 18, 2011 1:18 PM BST
bf_fananatic

others might agree with your anecdote... but the figures simply do not


    Horses
Q1 FY08     2,690,516,180
Q2 FY08     2,406,689,651
Q3 FY08     2,373,839,236
Q4 FY08     2,830,624,888
Q1 FY09     3,177,976,091
Q2 FY09     2,630,970,801
Q3 FY09     2,471,598,785
Q4 FY09     2,921,859,037
Q1 FY10     3,358,059,330
Q2 FY10     3,082,666,740
Q3 FY10     2,452,581,181
Q4 FY10     2,948,718,965
Q1 FY11     3,390,960,404
Q2 FY11     2,990,386,873
Q3 FY11     2,564,411,901
Q4 FY11     3,057,990,951
Q1 FY12 ***     3,841,403,168
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:20 PM BST
have you got the figures for greyhound racing?
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:24 PM BST
maybe the problem at moment is all these figures arent being respected by th major stock broker consultants who incidently will of told many investors to put money into the big bookmakers!

soon as they get a whiff that betfair might become a bookmaker it will cause there clients shares in the bookmakers to take a hit!
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:26 PM BST
betfair is ready for the world but is the world ready for betfair!
Report The Magician (100) July 18, 2011 1:27 PM BST
Sure.... NOTE THIS IS GLOBAL - did not break out UK/AUSTRALIA - which I think is the onlt two countries that the greyhounds are covered, maybe the irish derby is covered also



    GLOBAL GREYHOUNDS
Q1 FY08     67,621,468
Q2 FY08     70,505,901
Q3 FY08     87,386,188
Q4 FY08     104,759,555
Q1 FY09     103,916,588
Q2 FY09     109,729,085
Q3 FY09     133,610,612
Q4 FY09     143,005,621
Q1 FY10     136,952,215
Q2 FY10     154,036,835
Q3 FY10     157,279,463
Q4 FY10     173,922,933
Q1 FY11     165,364,336
Q2 FY11     167,863,545
Q3 FY11     174,717,794
Q4 FY11     157,811,808
Q1 FY12 ***     157,593,747
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:28 PM BST
do you know that many stock broker consultants are very concerned aboput the recent hike in premium charge, the underline the possible effect to exchange liquidity if a rival or new firm in future wins the big bettors off the site!
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:30 PM BST
if there is a large amount of disgruntled exchange players up for grabs, market forces will find a better bettor supplier!
Report The Magician (100) July 18, 2011 1:34 PM BST
bf_fanatic

read a few broker reports - was left convinced they don't understand, Betfair its customers or the PC.

but I might be wrong

(vested interest - I have a spread bet on betfair shares to go up)
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:35 PM BST
why doesnt betfair if it has so much liquidity consider opening a new bookmaker name to gain more capital, seperate business would mean no conflict of interest with the brand name, the excange is a slow growing but sustainable proven business and a big fat bookmakers would look nice for a buy up in the future if it competes well with the big four or five bookmakers, nice long term business strategy!
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:36 PM BST
i think they will go up in spite of the pc hike but certainly not because of it currently, any profits gained from charges wont pop up on reports for a quarter or two!
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:38 PM BST
In a critical note, Espirito analysts lowered their target price on the stock to 630p as they said "Betfair's updated growth strategy is effectively turning it into a conventional bookmaker over time, diluting the original exchange proposition" and claimed the "business is reaching maturity and competition is intensifying."
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:43 PM BST
staff at betfair wont be getting any bonuses this year to keep there profit margins higher, good job there wages dont receive a %60 cut or they would all walk out!
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:47 PM BST
all betfair really need to do is do some cuts in areas which are sucking up there money, a tightening up of investment and reduced operating costs would surely bolster there profits much better than devaluing there exchange model with pc hike or stopping staff getting there bonuses!
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 1:48 PM BST
they need some finacial wizards onboard, i reckon some of the top 500 customers on betfair would make great business men to increase there profits, anyone agree!
Report Rollo Tomasi July 18, 2011 2:00 PM BST
frog2
Magician (100), I dont know if they have recruited anyone new but since I last saw you at the oxo tower we have the PC, the super PC,a cross matching bot, transaction charges and data request charges. These are all measures that I think are to level the playing field between traders and genuine punters.

///

None of those are going to encourage more genuine punters because their charges haven't dropped and some of them have got caught up in the PC. If a 60% winner's tax is so good why not make it 90% then?

I think the problem's are:

1)With the original PC Betfair have let the cat out of the bag that customers pay at least 20% commission when a lot must have thought they paid 5% or less. Now all the bots mean there are no longer 20% better prices so if you are paying 20% commission what is the point of a backer being on here? Backers should pay less commission than layers because backers can bet anywhere. Why should someone backing one horse pay the same or more commission than someone running a book? Betfair isn't getting enough new customers and encouraging them to stay.


2)A procession of site errors coupled with rubbish customer service, so when people lose through no fault of their own Betfair drive customers away. Take last Saturday people double-clicking, triple-clicking due to a Betfair fault not their own. Do Betfair really think people will just carry on being mugged forever and they won't spread the word about their poor experience?
   
3)Betfair is perceived as a place where crime pays - with this 60% all they have said is the hooverers can continue fleecing people as long as they give Betfair a larger cut. Why is that going to enable losers to lose more slowly? When we had ATR Extra liquidity was miles higher and prices were matched all during the race, not as now where most is matched at the end of a race. If there isn't a turnaround Betfair don't make enough from sharks falling over themselves to back at 1.01

A higher matched figure does NOT mean that Betfair make anymore money.
Report Feck N. Eejit July 18, 2011 2:07 PM BST
Feck, very few old style gamblers will be paying the charge.

Correct frog, but is it not a disincentive to be a successful gambler when you'll just get lumped in with cheats and middlemen. Surely this is like saying if you're going to be successful here we'd prefer you not to provide liquidity while doing so.


If they can restrict the draining by the CCTs (or encourage them to add churn liquidity) I think this place will improve again for genuine punters.

I pointed out earlier that there's certainly incentive for those under 10% comm'n generated to get it up to 10% but you've yet to demonstrate how you think those already on 10%+ are going to introduce this churn. Unless they've been hoarding a strategy that shows a gross profit with little net profit all they'll be doing is shifting pc charges to normal commission but ending up with the same profits for more work. As such they'll abandon the churning.
Report The Magician (100) July 18, 2011 2:14 PM BST
Rollo

Very sensible post that I mostly agree with.

I have always told betfair to close down bad customers, especially cheats/fast pictures/courtside etc.... rather than let them mug their good customers as long as they give BF a cut of the theft.

If they price out the very best genuine punters in the world... you need to be STELLA to pay PC, then morally it might be dubious, but economically it will still be good for BF.

how do genuine punters that pay PC go with Ladbrokes and Hills..  do they regularly lay 30,000 to £1K to them, I doubt it (not unless they have 15 runners)
Report Getafix July 18, 2011 2:23 PM BST
Just had a look through the annual reports to try and finally see what is really happening...

1) http://corporate.betfair.com/investor-relations/~/media/Files/B/Betfair/Annual%20Reports/betfair-annual-review-2009.pdf
2) http://corporate.betfair.com/~/media/Files/B/Betfair/press-releases/2011/2011-06-29.pdf?

Here is a summary of Net P&L (millions):

*2011 : 35.1
*2010 : 22.7
2009 : 34.6
2008 : 32.6
2007 : 22.8
2006 : 29.2
2005 : 16.8

*Also I quote the 2010 and 2011 the "underlying" figures which

Underlying figures are stated after making a number of adjustments in order to aid comparability between periods. These adjustments involve the exclusion, where relevant, of: the revenue and EBITDA from the High rollers segment; exceptional items; equity settled share-based payments; profit on sale of financial asset; and the associated tax effect of these adjustments. A reconciliation of reported figures to underlying figures is set out in Appendix 1

the "reported" figures are:

2011 : 23.0
2010 : 15.1

so to my *untrained* financial mind and considering 2005 - 2009 are "reported " figures(?), this suggests it is the listing on the stock market ("Exceptional items") that the main loss in revenue in 2010 and 2011 was caused by (looking at page 31 in document 2 link above)?  Maybe someone can confirm?

This to me implies that Betfair are not struggling - that the debate regarding not enough money from new clients etc is not true...  They just want to squeeze out more profit which I can understand any business would do if able.
Report Nick Knatterton July 18, 2011 2:26 PM BST
It is not about getting rid of courtsiders, or even minimizing their edge compared to "honest" punters trust me they would have done so long time ago.

There have been some time now technology/service provider who could offer much quicker pictures than live video and they haven't made a deal with them. Surely the price isn't the problem because it would surely pay itself back when losing punters wouldn't lose their money so quickly.
Report Getafix July 18, 2011 2:26 PM BST
also just to add the, the increases in revenue over the years do suggest the add ons such as poker, games, high rollers exercise etc have given betfair more profit.  it seems that the excahnge is stuck at its peak (no growth) unless more countries can be tapped...if only the US would drop their regulations -...  (I wish)
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 2:34 PM BST
in fighting between betfair customers over the pc hike will only create amusement between betfair staff censoring our remarks, you all took the %20 origianl pc lying down bar in-fighting on here and social networks so betfair will expect no real opposition to the recent rise, its a monopoly, we all must feed betfair till it has a blotted stomach and finally expoldes under its appetite for cash.
our sentiments will play little to any effect , possibly a strike by all players would have an effect but this never happened before and i doubt anyone has the brains or skills to pull that off anyway.

the only blessing for anyone successful on here is that they wont have to count and tidy the millions up which would take years , its all automated and will be gone in a betfair accountants blink.

happy days
Report The Magician (100) July 18, 2011 2:39 PM BST
anyone that says exchange in not growing in terms of turover (backers stakes) and income revenue - juts has not seen the numbers...

last quater was biggest turnover and income to date - and it was not a blip - it was part of a consistant robust trend.

granted - UK horses are more mature (not declining) but growing sprots and regions are causing steady growth.
Report Rs1 July 18, 2011 2:52 PM BST
nothing gonna change ... we took the 20 percent ... judging by todays events so far nothing has changed and were stuck with the 40/60 percent

i have a very small hope that something will change .... but something bigger inside telling me that threshold of 250k is gonna be coming down ... for a bigger haul of the fish
Report Getafix July 18, 2011 2:55 PM BST
Magician - maybe I have missed something?  The figures you produced earlier were "turnover (backers stakes)"... so subjectove figures.  For example more traders = less overall profit for betfair!
Report Getafix July 18, 2011 2:56 PM BST
it is the capture of profit from turnover that is important to betfair.
Report bf_fananatic July 18, 2011 3:06 PM BST
true gatafix. makes you wonder were all that money goes, have they not grown familiar with the concepts of, growing orgainically instead of all these nutriets, fertilisers, pest control and manure they keep chunking into the business, profit margins would be bigger if they cut all the crap out lol
Report blank July 18, 2011 3:26 PM BST
The Magician (100)
17 Jul 11 17:00 Joined: 16 Jan 09 | Topic/replies: 408 | Blogger: The Magician (100)'s blog

blank
17 Jul 11 14:24 Joined: 30 Sep 10 | Topic/replies: 43 | Blogger: blank's blog
I don't see how this would be good for genuine punters, if PC payers churn the markets on lower value bets it would make the markets more efficient and therefore it would be harder for genuine punters to win. Traders can operate in more efficient and liquid markets so it might be good for them.

cant agree with this....

if a market is 1% inefficient NOW - the people (predominantly) gaingin from this inefficiency will be the pros/winners - the rertail player will be paying the 1% inefficiency chagre (and more)

if churing PC payers make the market .5% 'inefficient' but break square... the .5% is effectively transfered from the prior winners (pros) to the retail player.

this is good for betfair, and good for winners that think they can win for 50 Years.


If genuine punters want to win this isn't good for them because it makes it harder to win, if they're happy to lose but lose more slowly then fair enough it's good for them.
Report zipper July 18, 2011 3:38 PM BST
Listen up or shut up ..... Betfair have more info than you or me  on this subject.. they will do  whats the best for the small guy  yes thats the guy who made this a great betting exchange    .......not the cheats or the sharks   ... the real people  ...
Report Rollo Tomasi July 18, 2011 3:51 PM BST
zipper,

LOL.

So taxing the layers to excess is going to make them offer better value to backers or make them stop hoovering? While not reducing the commission burden on the backers/losers that they need to attract?
Report iz77778 July 18, 2011 3:55 PM BST
they will do  whats the best for the small guy

seems the betfair pr team have finally melted down after a week of non-stop postings.......sad.....but kinda funny......
Report Ron Pillock July 18, 2011 3:56 PM BST
Zipper is a well known nutter
Report zipper July 18, 2011 4:12 PM BST
Ronny  have it your way for now   zips been here from the start see you joined  2009 ........ wow  bit of a new kid  ......and you know it all.. how old are you ?
Report Trevh July 18, 2011 4:14 PM BST
Here is a summary of Net P&L (millions):

*2011 : 35.1
*2010 : 22.7
2009 : 34.6
2008 : 32.6
2007 : 22.8
2006 : 29.2
2005 : 16.8


Can't they make those figures say anything they want, depending on how much they choose to cream out of the company for fat cat salaries and bonuses?
Report Rollo Tomasi July 18, 2011 4:23 PM BST
Once the original PC started, even if they hadn't realised before a winning backer then knew that if they cannot get 5/1 on here for a horse that is 4/1 at a bookmaker - then there is no point being on here. If the price is the same the backer may as well scrabble round on beard accounts at bookmakers for the same stake at 5/1 or even 80% of the stake at 5/1 and save the 20% or dutch it on a danger.
Report zipper July 18, 2011 4:25 PM BST
Rollo Tomasi   just read your post 15.51  hey you guys you should read  it .. this guy aint a  millions miles
any how this site is all about winning money   40% 60%  90%
if you back a loser the % dont matter   
5.00 Ayr  Monel   zips on ... and i will glady pay the %.....
Report Getafix July 18, 2011 5:20 PM BST
Trevh if you read my posts more clearly the "reported" figures are:

2011 : 23.0
2010 : 15.1
2009 : 34.6
2008 : 32.6
2007 : 22.8
2006 : 29.2
2005 : 16.8

with the losses 2010 and 2011 mainly due due the float (unless somebody can correct me?) as the "underlying" figures are what the profit would have been "in order to aid comparability between periods" i.e., if they hadn't been floated or had not taken on the high rollers (profit) etc.

These figures can NOT be fudged as that is against the law.  A bit of debt here or then can be shifted from one period to the next but it always gets picked up (from what I understand anyway) though I don't profess to be a financial expert.
Report Getafix July 18, 2011 5:21 PM BST
* - A bit of debt here or *there*
Report axolotl July 18, 2011 5:39 PM BST
Weary Wizard - they don’t all make ‘monster money'.
Report zipper July 18, 2011 5:40 PM BST
Rollo  4/1 with a high street booki  them big  3 will lay you  f... all    5/1 on here  you can be on  to plenty   get the drift  this games not for whimps  like you ....now clear off  win lose or draw thats my last one to you .......zipper
Report zipper July 18, 2011 5:51 PM BST
Frog  your spot on ....zips  read all the nonsense... you have hit the nail on the head ....well done
Report Getafix July 18, 2011 9:29 PM BST
What is "the Standard" and do you have a web link?
Report Rocket to the FACE July 18, 2011 9:32 PM BST
It was posted somewhere in GB the other day. Something to do with they way Betfair creatively dealt with their development costs to make their profit & loss look more appealing
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 19, 2011 1:01 AM BST
Are we talking about the Standard newsrag or standard accounting practices ?
Report subversion July 19, 2011 1:26 AM BST
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/On_balance__I_reckon_these_sha...
Report subversion July 19, 2011 1:27 AM BST
for the London Evening Standard article
Report charlatan July 19, 2011 12:47 PM BST
so what happened to liquidity yesterday? the big layer seems to have disappeared from the darts outright market this week. maybe he is on holiday though. and the baseball was as dead as a dodo last night but that's nothing new and baseball liquidity certainly hasn't moved to another exchange.
Report frog2 July 19, 2011 12:53 PM BST
Didnt notice any difference yet on the racing markets. I think it will take a few weeks to sort itself out and then YOY figures can be compared.
Report bf_fananatic July 19, 2011 2:10 PM BST
frog, it seems the action you speak of has come into play today, you almost got it right with your post, liquidity is up over 100%, market forces are very much inplay, st the other site
Report bf_fananatic July 19, 2011 2:11 PM BST
check it out for yourself
Report bf_fananatic July 19, 2011 2:12 PM BST
i hope this dosent affect betfair too much as it could be caused by the pc charge coming into affect today
Report pxb July 19, 2011 2:22 PM BST
Churning around the pc results in offering worse prices and less liquidity.

I know because this is what I am doing, and it works.

All the rest is blather from those who haven't been there and done that.
Report Get On MASSIVE July 19, 2011 2:24 PM BST
I know of a lot of big market makers in various sports who are in the process of getting software that duplicates their offers on Betquack.

There's a possibility in time that the liquidity on Betquack will be similar to Betfair and why wouldn't people prefer to bet there as their commission is lower? Even long term losers who are small players can pay less over there.

Eventually if there is a slight migration to Betquack the big market makers could stop offering on Betfair and the power has suddenly shifted never to return. It probably can't happen on sports like horse racing or football but from tennis downwards it can.

Betfair are playing a dangerous game and must be extremely confident with their market domination that they're untouchable.
Report Feck N. Eejit July 19, 2011 2:40 PM BST
Agreed GOM. I know a few gambling botters who've been inspired by betfair to finally take a look at the purple API.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 19, 2011 2:45 PM BST
GOM
You say " ---extremely confident with their market domination that they're untouchable".
Maybe it is more a case of BF being  extremely confident that their pricing structure is the only one sustainable long term ?
I would, if I were you, perhaps be just a little bit more worried by what BQ might be forced to do price structure wise down the road, if it ever did gain some serious traction in the mkts. you seem to be now talking about.
Report catfleppo July 19, 2011 2:50 PM BST
There is still the assumption that if they ever dealt with the same volumes as betfair, purple would be in some way kinder.  My guess is they wouldn't.
Report Get On MASSIVE July 19, 2011 2:52 PM BST
Well Betfair turned into a near billion Pound company in a few years charging no more than 5% so I'd guess it is sustainable. I think if Betquack did eventually become the market leader in exchange betting then they would think twice before making the same mistakes as their predecessor.

However I do think their is some merit in changing the pricing structure as your example about someone paying more long term commission as an out an out gambler who has one bet on a horse race rather than a specials player on SPOTY who has thousands of entry and exit points over the course of a year.
Report catfleppo July 19, 2011 3:02 PM BST
I agree it is a possibility but it is being treated as a given.
Report CLYDEBANK29 July 19, 2011 6:27 PM BST
One interesting fact to emerge from last night's get together was that Betfair are hoping to get an additional £20m in charges (the source sounded reliable) from the new PC.  This equates to the 480 people making around £60m net.

That means the average profit is £125k.  If 10 people are making £5m net a year that would mean the others only make an average of £21k between them.
Report DStyle July 19, 2011 6:38 PM BST
GOM - a chunky market maker has been experimenting this week at the other place with matches played on the main court in Baku.

as for pricing, as i've said before, something has to be done about getting more out the deriative bets on an encompassing market.
Report baconONtoast July 19, 2011 8:13 PM BST
I noticed lots more liquidity ..... over on nnatchbook that is. 0.5%/1% commission, no PC either.

Betquack seems better too.
Report takethestand July 19, 2011 8:21 PM BST
i'm somebody who is in favour of big, efficient winners paying more but......

I thought some of the correct score markets in todays champions league were a bit bare.

Horse racing seemed busy, especially prerace
Report funkymonkey July 19, 2011 9:01 PM BST
Betquack, snatchbook, its all moving more liquid now. Smarkets has potential and I think more will follow suit.

Plenty of pre-off money about on the purple all day long for the horses, good liquidity on other major events too and improving as we speak.

Personally i believe a corner has been turned and genuine options are springing up for those who make the effort to add liquid to these sites and I for one am extremely pleased BF is getting a kick up the backside. Long overdue.

Maybe when the share price hits 5 quid they will quietly reflect to themselves what a major f-up and public relations disaster they have created.
Report jjjjj July 19, 2011 9:01 PM BST
GOM, good post!
if betd*q can offer a stable platform in the next month, the purple volume of betting will skyrocket. tennis wasnt too bad today in-running.
Report Aussies_rule July 19, 2011 9:12 PM BST
It is difficult to see where this is all going. Everything is possible now.

In any case, it is certainly worth having a purple account.
Report frog2 July 19, 2011 9:22 PM BST
Do purple seed  their markets?
Report DStyle July 19, 2011 9:46 PM BST
it's been suggested.
Report Get On MASSIVE July 19, 2011 10:14 PM BST
DStyle,

I seen him on Betquack. I'm almost sure it was a Russian fella who was also in Stuttgart last week. He hardly got anything matched but Rome wasn't built in a day. He was still doing it on Betfair but it will be a long process to move between the two exchanges.

The important thing was that his software now offers on both sites simultaneously and a lot more market makers are going to follow suit in the coming weeks. We moaned and moaned about the 20% PC but we accepted it in the end even though we were never happy about it. The new PC is the catalyst to do something about it. Betfair may soon realise that they've pi$$ed the wrong people off and that they're just a platform and not the market.
Report DStyle July 19, 2011 10:28 PM BST
going to be very interesting to see what happens when Montreal starts in 3 weeks.
Report CLYDEBANK29 July 19, 2011 10:37 PM BST
what's Montreal for the uninitiated?
Report CLYDEBANK29 July 19, 2011 10:39 PM BST
Masters Tennis?
Report Rocket to the FACE July 19, 2011 10:41 PM BST
I'm pretty sure the individual you guys are talking about is not an individual

But nevertheless, good news.
Report DStyle July 19, 2011 10:52 PM BST
correct clydebank.
Report CLYDEBANK29 July 19, 2011 10:56 PM BST
fwiw.  I think a free market (and isn't a betting exchange market the epitome of a free market?) works best with low taxation.

I've always been led to believe that tennis has the biggest number of big winners, yet by the same token it's the fastest growing market on Betfair.

I know there are loads of other variables at play here but the biggest incentive there is, is to increase betting volume and increase available liquidity is winning.

This idea that people are going to starting churning and betting more because they are winning less here is just a nonsense imo.

It takes a helluva of a lot of doing to lose a dominant position in a natural monopolistic market when there appears to be no serious rival in the exchange market, but Betfair might just be capable of doing it.
Report TheVis July 19, 2011 10:57 PM BST
Any reports from in-running on the horses today across the road?  It was dire beyond belief when I did a quick check a couple of weeks ago.

I too believe the Duck may be able to take this on a sport by sport basis.  Not the footie and horses which I agree are too big to crack intially but the smaller ones could easily be targeted as there are very few people putting up prices pre-off and even less in-running.  Once momentum goes on one sport I don't see it coming back and that could easily be the start of the domino effect.
Report Ghetto Joe July 19, 2011 11:23 PM BST
In running horses over the road is a complete waste of time, I'd imagine it'll be a long time before they'd have any sort of capacity to compete.

But if they had any sense that's certainly not an area they should try to step up with tracksiders/sis players etc having such a huge advantage they're certainly not the type of players Betquack need on board right now.
Report PROGAMBLER1 July 20, 2011 12:07 AM BST
I found the liquidity alarmingly low on horses, and that was 10 minutes before the off - that's what the premium charge & squeezing every penny out of clients in other fees does to turnover!
Report RichWill July 21, 2011 11:32 AM BST
504 quid matched on the first at Sandown on the place market.  I've been playing the place markets for almost nine years on here and the last few days have been the worst I can remember.  So where is this new liquidity frog?
Report Gin July 21, 2011 2:08 PM BST
The Magician (100)
18 Jul 11 13:34
Joined:
16 Jan 09
| Topic/replies: 413 | Blogger: The Magician (100)'s blog
bf_fanatic

read a few broker reports - was left convinced they don't understand, Betfair its customers or the PC.

but I might be wrong

(vested interest - I have a spread bet on betfair shares to go up)



Just out of interest Magician, do you have a target price (that you are willing to divulge).
Report frog2 July 23, 2011 11:41 AM BST
RichWill
21 Jul 11 11:32
Joined:
08 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 107 | Blogger: RichWill's blog
504 quid matched on the first at Sandown on the place market.  I've been playing the place markets for almost nine years on here and the last few days have been the worst I can remember.  So where is this new liquidity frog?

.........

lol. You expect people to churn on the early prices for horseracing?
Report Feck N. Eejit July 23, 2011 12:02 PM BST
Does anybody still believe this churning bsh1t?
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 23, 2011 12:05 PM BST
Only those actually doing it in some form or manner I suppose ?.
Report CLYDEBANK29 July 23, 2011 2:28 PM BST
did the OP ever believe it or was it a wind up all along?
Report CLYDEBANK29 July 23, 2011 2:30 PM BST
and if the OP does believe it does this mean that someone at Betfair believed it too?[smiley:crazy]
Report ballabriggs July 25, 2011 4:10 PM BST
More liquidity is good news for peoples.
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