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General Betting
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These 54 comments are related to the topic:
What do people think will change liquiditywise towards/as from the 18th?
What do people think will change liquiditywise towards/as from the 18th?
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Replies: 54
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I disagree Mr. Magoo.
BF have broken the edges of each of the 480 imo, and will replicate those strategies from July 18th, using house monies. The losers will still lose. It is who they lost to that will change. Instead of the 72% of deposits that Yu states that BF eventually win from total funds lodged to here, they are aiming for the full 100%... |
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I'm quite looking forward to taking on the BF traders provided they play fair.
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steeringjo , which stategies do you think BF will attack ? do you mean trading edges ?
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Surely on the 18th it will suddenly get a lot more easy to win on here. After all, Betfair said that they are bringing in the new PC to help out the poor little guys who are losing too fast to the big hitters.
 you're all still going to lose at the same rate, just betfair will end up with all the money..and in fact, you may lose at a faster rate, as the speads and liquidity on some sports drop |
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im sure betfair doen't want to seed there markets at 101% when they can do it 103%
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i'm pretty sure that markets will decrease,i can't see loads of empty screens hanging around for ever ...it's quite bad already
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Instead of the 72% of deposits that Yu states that BF eventually win from total funds
lodged to here, they are aiming for the full 100%... The way I read it was that they currently have 72% of their punters' gambling spend. ie. those who bet on here bet 28% of their gambling money elsewhere. I would be amazed if the winners on here were only taking just over a quarter of the losers' money. |
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CB,
They will attack each & every edge that they have broken. IMO, this would've happened already, but it took the lab rats time to bust some of the more techie ones. Cracking the Betfairian would used the X-M bot as his own edge was the start of the rot. The only real credible ones that will remain will be arb bots between here & ZE_DAQ et al; and ratings gurus such as the Wizard of Oz... |
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Bayes,
Fair point. It was how I read Yu's comment though - and what I believe that he meant. Can anyone else comment as to their thoughts on what he meant? "TAR" as Warrack would say |
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The, horse racing pre race at least, markets have changed quite markedly in the last 10 days or so. In 2006 they changed meaning i could no longer operate as i did previously and now after all this time they appear to have gone as they were, with less liquidity though!
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Bayes is correct imo.
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steering, what sort of time frame do you expect ? are you saying that there will be no definable edge on any sporting market in the future ? , How about strategies...i'm sure there will be a few edges which exist within the boundaries of a 100 % book as they do already
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CB,
Of course edges wil exist in future. As Buzzer has alluded to though, the nature of such mkts change, hence edges may "die". The 480 may be running edges that simply aren't profitable at 60% PC. This doesn't affect the house from doing so, using a zero-cost account... |
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Feck - fair comment, ty.
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OK steering, fair enough ...i was just wondering what your thoughts were on the general side of things ...sure some profitable punters won't find an edge profitable enough .
I just couldn't see where BF could close off all angles as Bookies run to an 80 % or so book ,or they would have to be mad to risk it  |