General Betting
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
09 Jul 11
11:45
Joined:
Date Joined:
10 Jan 02
Quote 1 from the share price thread
Separately, Espirito Santo lowers its fair value for the firm to 630 pence, while repeating its "sell" rating.
"In our view, Betfair's updated growth strategy is effectively turning it into a conventional bookmaker over time, diluting the original exchange proposition."
Quote 2 from unemployable's thread
"Their CFO has announced that they will replace liquidity lost from their PC hike from their own sportsbook. His words not mine."
......................................................................
When I heard the first quote from brokers Espirito Santo, I was quite surprised they'd actually figured out what was going on but it seems from the second quote (which I'm assuming can be substantiated) that Betfair's CFO actually announced it in black and white.
........................................................................
Betfair thrived because it was a free market and winners were welcome. That was the whole point. A free market, created the business, it drove the business forward because it wasn't a sin to win. It was the incentive and the catalyst for all that followed and Betfair's USP. You need the incentive because most people will never win. Those that did win and Betfair both thought (at the time) that they were both beneficial to each other, the winners in general provided the liquidity and provided ideas for new markets, championed the company in private and public. Betfair in return rose like a phoenix, won the Queens Award, and made a profit virtually from the get go.
Then something changed. Someone at Betfair thought some punters were making too much money and that winning was bad for business and the seed became a group think philosophy. The slogan "winners are welcome" was dropped (a big mistake imo) and suddenly those people that were making money were considered the enemy (as they are at the bookies) instead of their friend and Betfair set about a startegy about taking as much as their winners money as possible.
I look at a company that embraced winners in 2006, that was growing exponentially, but what we have now is a company that was making more money profit then than it is now. Just taking the exchange part of the business on its own, it's got more customers, higher turnover and good customer retention. I don't see obscene marketing spend (and their tv advert was abysmal tbh) and I suspect it could have been easily covered many times by the increased turnover, so I wonder where all the money has gone.
As in any betting business, or in any business, customers leave, and the most likely customers to leave are those that are losing, but people don't leave a highly efficient betting market because winners are winning too much. The opposite should be true if anything, as people competing for the monetary prize in a market with no barriers to entry, make the prices more efficient. Maybe they have spent loads of money building up barriers to competion entry and this has been part of a long term strategy to get their hands on more money from those that are winning winners.
For me the biggest barrier to entry was that customers wanted to be here, that uniquely winners were welcome. I don't know where they've ingrained this notion in their heads that winners aren't welcome. It's rubbish imo. This became a success because it was a free market, not a communist state.
Separately, Espirito Santo lowers its fair value for the firm to 630 pence, while repeating its "sell" rating.
"In our view, Betfair's updated growth strategy is effectively turning it into a conventional bookmaker over time, diluting the original exchange proposition."
Quote 2 from unemployable's thread
"Their CFO has announced that they will replace liquidity lost from their PC hike from their own sportsbook. His words not mine."
......................................................................
When I heard the first quote from brokers Espirito Santo, I was quite surprised they'd actually figured out what was going on but it seems from the second quote (which I'm assuming can be substantiated) that Betfair's CFO actually announced it in black and white.
........................................................................
Betfair thrived because it was a free market and winners were welcome. That was the whole point. A free market, created the business, it drove the business forward because it wasn't a sin to win. It was the incentive and the catalyst for all that followed and Betfair's USP. You need the incentive because most people will never win. Those that did win and Betfair both thought (at the time) that they were both beneficial to each other, the winners in general provided the liquidity and provided ideas for new markets, championed the company in private and public. Betfair in return rose like a phoenix, won the Queens Award, and made a profit virtually from the get go.
Then something changed. Someone at Betfair thought some punters were making too much money and that winning was bad for business and the seed became a group think philosophy. The slogan "winners are welcome" was dropped (a big mistake imo) and suddenly those people that were making money were considered the enemy (as they are at the bookies) instead of their friend and Betfair set about a startegy about taking as much as their winners money as possible.
I look at a company that embraced winners in 2006, that was growing exponentially, but what we have now is a company that was making more money profit then than it is now. Just taking the exchange part of the business on its own, it's got more customers, higher turnover and good customer retention. I don't see obscene marketing spend (and their tv advert was abysmal tbh) and I suspect it could have been easily covered many times by the increased turnover, so I wonder where all the money has gone.
As in any betting business, or in any business, customers leave, and the most likely customers to leave are those that are losing, but people don't leave a highly efficient betting market because winners are winning too much. The opposite should be true if anything, as people competing for the monetary prize in a market with no barriers to entry, make the prices more efficient. Maybe they have spent loads of money building up barriers to competion entry and this has been part of a long term strategy to get their hands on more money from those that are winning winners.
For me the biggest barrier to entry was that customers wanted to be here, that uniquely winners were welcome. I don't know where they've ingrained this notion in their heads that winners aren't welcome. It's rubbish imo. This became a success because it was a free market, not a communist state.
Show More
One other very important thing the rest of us should consider given this sportsbook is front running. Will they be hedging their bets into the exchange when the winning gamblers are backing but choking them when they're laying?
My sense is that for the exchange model to be successful, or at least to meet the expectations implied by a p/e of over 40 (isn't it currently around 32, 33?), it has to wipe out the other models and become the default mode of betting.
The online model has done this in the case of music and CD sales, though in many cases the owners are the same as the owners of bricks-and-mortar property.
Another comparison wd be lending. Zopa cd command an astronomical p/e, even based on a profit stream due just to facilitating deals and picking up a few crumbs, if people believed that it cd replace banks the default form of offering loans to borrowers.
Bf realised poss. even sooner than 2006 that they were not going to supplant the High St in the medium term--in fact betting was one of the worst businesses they cd have chosen in which to try to do this. Instead they became commission agents and service providers for the books, accepting for the time being that their sportsbook margins wd be lower than these alternatives.
Looking at it as if I were an owner in the business, I'm not sure that all but a few winners shd be welcome, and those shd not be on the profit-share terms they were b/c the pc hike.
Just to clarify, the pc rise is iniquitous to me insofar as I am a punter but from the point of view of a prospective shareholder, I have yet to be convinced it's a business mistake.
Incidentally, I wd put more hope long-term on zopa as a lender than on bf as a bookmaker.
The online model has done this in the case of music and CD sales, though in many cases the owners are the same as the owners of bricks-and-mortar property.
Another comparison wd be lending. Zopa cd command an astronomical p/e, even based on a profit stream due just to facilitating deals and picking up a few crumbs, if people believed that it cd replace banks the default form of offering loans to borrowers.
Bf realised poss. even sooner than 2006 that they were not going to supplant the High St in the medium term--in fact betting was one of the worst businesses they cd have chosen in which to try to do this. Instead they became commission agents and service providers for the books, accepting for the time being that their sportsbook margins wd be lower than these alternatives.
Looking at it as if I were an owner in the business, I'm not sure that all but a few winners shd be welcome, and those shd not be on the profit-share terms they were b/c the pc hike.
Just to clarify, the pc rise is iniquitous to me insofar as I am a punter but from the point of view of a prospective shareholder, I have yet to be convinced it's a business mistake.
Incidentally, I wd put more hope long-term on zopa as a lender than on bf as a bookmaker.
http://calvinayre.com/2011/07/09/business/betfair-shares-hit-record-low/
askari, does zopa still have a maximum you can loan per year of 50K per person? IMO that put a lot of people off and many of the remainder would've been put off by them not deducting tax at source.
Feck, i think they've removed that limit.
According to their FAQs:
2. What's the minimum/maximum I can lend?
Once you've joined as a lender you can lend anything from £10.
According to their FAQs:
2. What's the minimum/maximum I can lend?
Once you've joined as a lender you can lend anything from £10.
Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere, its more info from that broker. I read this this morning, in the Express. I put it up on the horse racing forum share price thread aswell.
----
FLOAT flop Betfair Group hit a new low yesterday amid concerns over the impact of the company hiking commission charges for higher-value customers.
Shares in the betting exchange, which came to market last October at 1300p, fell 391⁄2p to 682p as brokers Espirito Santo and UBS told clients to sell, with the latter slashing its earnings forecasts by 40 per cent and 35 per cent for the next two years.
Espirito Santo warned that the forthcoming big increase in the charge it levies on the profits of its most persistent winners could impact exchange liquidity at Betfair, which acts as an intermediary between gamblers wanting to place a bet or offer odds to others.
It said: “It may well be the case that these customers will not accept the increased charges but instead transfer to smaller exchanges or alternative products such as poker.
Betfair Group hit a new low yesterday amid concerns over the impact of the company hiking commission charges
“This can impact exchange liquidity as the highest-value customers are also likely to be the most active ‘layers’ across markets, effectively providing liquidity for the casual player.”
----
FLOAT flop Betfair Group hit a new low yesterday amid concerns over the impact of the company hiking commission charges for higher-value customers.
Shares in the betting exchange, which came to market last October at 1300p, fell 391⁄2p to 682p as brokers Espirito Santo and UBS told clients to sell, with the latter slashing its earnings forecasts by 40 per cent and 35 per cent for the next two years.
Espirito Santo warned that the forthcoming big increase in the charge it levies on the profits of its most persistent winners could impact exchange liquidity at Betfair, which acts as an intermediary between gamblers wanting to place a bet or offer odds to others.
It said: “It may well be the case that these customers will not accept the increased charges but instead transfer to smaller exchanges or alternative products such as poker.
Betfair Group hit a new low yesterday amid concerns over the impact of the company hiking commission charges
“This can impact exchange liquidity as the highest-value customers are also likely to be the most active ‘layers’ across markets, effectively providing liquidity for the casual player.”
All fine until they mentioned poker. Surely people can't base their investment decisions based on twaddle like that.
The annoying thing is that Betfair will take more notice of the brokers than their customers
I know several people that will go back to poker if Betfair becomes unviable fwiw.
Betfair poker's demise is a result of damage to the Betfair brand.
I don't think serious players ever really thought of Betfair Poker as somewhere to play poker. I could be wrong on that, but they're nothing in the poker world.
I'm one lori.
I'm already putting more of my time into poker.
TBF because there's no Big Brother yet this year, but if the PC remains and I eventually end up on 60%, then I will probably all but give up on sports betting and just concentrate on poker.
It requires the same skills set and they welcome winners.
I'm already putting more of my time into poker.
TBF because there's no Big Brother yet this year, but if the PC remains and I eventually end up on 60%, then I will probably all but give up on sports betting and just concentrate on poker.
It requires the same skills set and they welcome winners.
sure Lori but the poker side is going downhill which is a sign the brand is damaged. They are stuck on the exchange as this is the only one
Cheers CB, yeah I misunderstood. You're right of course.
Getting blacklisted by Casinomeister wasn't bright either.
Getting blacklisted by Casinomeister wasn't bright either.
True, Befair poker has never been able to make any real impact in the Poker market.
It's recent further decline is mostly down to the change of software, which is just dreadful.
It's recent further decline is mostly down to the change of software, which is just dreadful.
Feck, I think zopa does still have that limit.
My general idea was that there will be a trend in business towards 'disintermediation', doing away with the middleman, and that companies like bf and zopa wh/ facilitate this are potentially in a position to dominate their markets. Of course bf's strategy is to become as big and obtrusive a middleman as poss.
In betting (a poor space for a p2p business anyway, as diehard bettors are either professionals or shiftless and don't have a bank account) it seems to me that person-to-person models aren't that lucrative, in that they give away too great a share of the value of their site to squatters w/ bots & algorithms.
My general idea was that there will be a trend in business towards 'disintermediation', doing away with the middleman, and that companies like bf and zopa wh/ facilitate this are potentially in a position to dominate their markets. Of course bf's strategy is to become as big and obtrusive a middleman as poss.
In betting (a poor space for a p2p business anyway, as diehard bettors are either professionals or shiftless and don't have a bank account) it seems to me that person-to-person models aren't that lucrative, in that they give away too great a share of the value of their site to squatters w/ bots & algorithms.
I think some Espirito Santo analyst is a botter and is effectively leveraging his job position.
What he says sounds like an artful mixture of half-truths and misrepresentations.
What he says sounds like an artful mixture of half-truths and misrepresentations.
I've often wondered why there isn't a foreign currency exchange askari. Terry Ramsden was supposedly starting one but that was years ago.
Cheers magician. Do you know anything about it or anyone who uses it. Is it safe iyo.
Askari
I really do like that turn of phrase you used in your last post.
"---squatters with bots and algorithms ".
Very descriptive of what is.
I really do like that turn of phrase you used in your last post.
"---squatters with bots and algorithms ".
Very descriptive of what is.
Feck
Did some extensive work in this space some 5 years ago looking at the possibility setting up such a company, bank charges in this space leave room for some low margin players.
The time taken to transfer is also painful for most people.
I don't personally know the people involved in this but I did read about them at some stage - they seemed to have banking/MBA backgrounds, so likely to be legitimate. I recall all ring fenced etc etc
last I looked 2 years ago - liquidity was thin.... but maybe it has improved.
they had not managed to save the time delay on transfers.....
but offered lower margins than highstreet banks.
but this is all DATED info....
Did some extensive work in this space some 5 years ago looking at the possibility setting up such a company, bank charges in this space leave room for some low margin players.
The time taken to transfer is also painful for most people.
I don't personally know the people involved in this but I did read about them at some stage - they seemed to have banking/MBA backgrounds, so likely to be legitimate. I recall all ring fenced etc etc
last I looked 2 years ago - liquidity was thin.... but maybe it has improved.
they had not managed to save the time delay on transfers.....
but offered lower margins than highstreet banks.
but this is all DATED info....
One other very important thing the rest of us should consider given this sportsbook is front running.
Good point, Eejit
Front running is highly illegal in financial markets, but I doubt the gambling regulators will do anything about it.
Good point, Eejit
Front running is highly illegal in financial markets, but I doubt the gambling regulators will do anything about it.
My sense is that for the exchange model to be successful, or at least to meet the expectations implied by a p/e of over 40 (isn't it currently around 32, 33?), it has to wipe out the other models and become the default mode of betting.
These things take time.
A good example is how long it took Amazon from being a worldwide business to booksstores closing. Amazon has been going strong for 12 to 15 years, yet its only now we are seeing large numbers of bookstores closing.
Running a cash handling high street business is expensive. Slowly but surely we will see high street bookmakers close and the business move online.
These things take time.
A good example is how long it took Amazon from being a worldwide business to booksstores closing. Amazon has been going strong for 12 to 15 years, yet its only now we are seeing large numbers of bookstores closing.
Running a cash handling high street business is expensive. Slowly but surely we will see high street bookmakers close and the business move online.
One other very important thing the rest of us should consider given this sportsbook is front running. Will they be hedging their bets into the exchange when the winning gamblers are backing but choking them when they're laying?
Winning gamblers wouldn't be winning gamblers if they took worse odds on the sportsbook than they do on the exchange. The sportsbook prices will just be a lower derivative of whats available on the exchange.
A good example is how long it took Amazon from being a worldwide business to booksstores closing. Amazon has been going strong for 12 to 15 years, yet its only now we are seeing large numbers of bookstores closing.
A good example is how long it took Amazon from being a worldwide business to booksstores closing. Amazon has been going strong for 12 to 15 years, yet its only now we are seeing large numbers of bookstores closing.
A good example is how long it took Amazon from being a worldwide business to booksstores closing. Amazon has been going strong for 12 to 15 years, yet its only now we are seeing large numbers of bookstores closing.
Funnily enough and by pure coincidence I was talking to a couple of friends about what was happening at Betfair yesterday and they likened it to bookstores closing, but the blame was put on the recession and landlords putting up rents (ie landlords were getting squeezed and responding by putting up rents and ended up losing the rent altogether). I'm sure Amazon has helped put the squeeze on them but it took the recession and rent rises, not the number of years Amazon was active imo, to close them down. I did point out that it wasnt quite the same, as at Betfair, they could sell the same books as me on vastly superior terms.
Winning gamblers wouldn't be winning gamblers if they took worse odds on the sportsbook than they do on the exchange. The sportsbook prices will just be a lower derivative of whats available on the exchange.
A good example is how long it took Amazon from being a worldwide business to booksstores closing. Amazon has been going strong for 12 to 15 years, yet its only now we are seeing large numbers of bookstores closing.
A good example is how long it took Amazon from being a worldwide business to booksstores closing. Amazon has been going strong for 12 to 15 years, yet its only now we are seeing large numbers of bookstores closing.
A good example is how long it took Amazon from being a worldwide business to booksstores closing. Amazon has been going strong for 12 to 15 years, yet its only now we are seeing large numbers of bookstores closing.
Funnily enough and by pure coincidence I was talking to a couple of friends about what was happening at Betfair yesterday and they likened it to bookstores closing, but the blame was put on the recession and landlords putting up rents (ie landlords were getting squeezed and responding by putting up rents and ended up losing the rent altogether). I'm sure Amazon has helped put the squeeze on them but it took the recession and rent rises, not the number of years Amazon was active imo, to close them down. I did point out that it wasnt quite the same, as at Betfair, they could sell the same books as me on vastly superior terms.
Feck: One other very important thing the rest of us should consider given this sportsbook is front running. Will they be hedging their bets into the exchange when the winning gamblers are backing but choking them when they're laying?
Clydebank: Winning gamblers wouldn't be winning gamblers if they took worse odds on the sportsbook than they do on the exchange. The sportsbook prices will just be a lower derivative of whats available on the exchange.
I'm not sure you understood what I was saying Clydebank. If so are you saying winning gamblers couldn't win with bookmakers who are generally lower than betfair? My point is, if betfair accept a bet (at lower than betfair odds) and suddenly find the shrewdies are backing it (making it likely to shorten on betfair) what's to stop them jumping in front of the shrewdies?
Clydebank: Winning gamblers wouldn't be winning gamblers if they took worse odds on the sportsbook than they do on the exchange. The sportsbook prices will just be a lower derivative of whats available on the exchange.
I'm not sure you understood what I was saying Clydebank. If so are you saying winning gamblers couldn't win with bookmakers who are generally lower than betfair? My point is, if betfair accept a bet (at lower than betfair odds) and suddenly find the shrewdies are backing it (making it likely to shorten on betfair) what's to stop them jumping in front of the shrewdies?
Feck, if you place a bet with a bookie you can often get more on (albeit more than likely at a shorter price) and when said bookie takes your bet he doesnt then immediately go on Betfair and arb it or hedge it.
What will happen with Betfair's sportsbook is something like this...
On the exchange £100 is available to bet at 2.3. Betfair's sportsbook offer a maximum of 100 at 2.2. Punter takes the 100 at 2.2 on the sportsbook and the 2.3 immediately disappears. Therefore there is no point in the sportsbook for anybody who wants to win.
What will happen with Betfair's sportsbook is something like this...
On the exchange £100 is available to bet at 2.3. Betfair's sportsbook offer a maximum of 100 at 2.2. Punter takes the 100 at 2.2 on the sportsbook and the 2.3 immediately disappears. Therefore there is no point in the sportsbook for anybody who wants to win.
^^^^ spot on.
They should just forget the sportbook, as well as all the other rubbish like multiples, casino, arcade, poker etc, and wind back 5 years plus to concentrate on what made them in the first place. Scrap the pc, go back to a straight punter v punter and not do anything else. It worked perfectly well then, and it will do again.
They should just forget the sportbook, as well as all the other rubbish like multiples, casino, arcade, poker etc, and wind back 5 years plus to concentrate on what made them in the first place. Scrap the pc, go back to a straight punter v punter and not do anything else. It worked perfectly well then, and it will do again.
They seem really keen to promote multiples for some reason. Maybe it's targeted at people like me who never use them but all the promo offers I'm getting in the speach bubble have been for their multiples.
RTTF, it's obvious, they offer appalling value to the punter and betfair make a fortune out of them. No difference to any other bookie, except of course they are even worse prices.
In fact whilst on the subject of multiples, I guarantee the average punter who does them loses money a hell of a lot faster than those who use the exchange normally, even to pc players, so exactly who is draining money from the exchange 
Yeap.
All I want now is Keep Bets back in the CS market
such a battle to get something which they used to have but got rid of for no reason.
All I want now is Keep Bets back in the CS market
such a battle to get something which they used to have but got rid of for no reason.
Bizarre how betfair used to be all about punters getting better value...so what happens, they now offer things which ensure that they get the exact opposite. Multipes? Crap prices. Cash out feature? You get mugged off by getting less than if you did it manually yourself. Have a decent winning run? We're going to clobber you for a big chunk of premium charge.
Multiples on outsiders offer better odds generally than you are getting at the bookies - often by a large margin. I actually don't mind them at all for a few casual bets such as when going racing or if watching the big meetings.
Whether BF should be spending time in investing and developing this product is another matter......
Whether BF should be spending time in investing and developing this product is another matter......
"Multiples on outsiders offer better odds generally than you are getting at the bookies - often by a large margin"
Total and utter rubbish. Betfair multiples can be beaten by bookmaker prices at least 99.9% of the time once commission is deducted (usually by at least half a dozen firms) the only exception being is if it's the San Marino Women's under 15 league or something which nobody else offers prices on!
Total and utter rubbish. Betfair multiples can be beaten by bookmaker prices at least 99.9% of the time once commission is deducted (usually by at least half a dozen firms) the only exception being is if it's the San Marino Women's under 15 league or something which nobody else offers prices on!
Well they take 5% off BFSP per selection so I'll take your bet and put together a collection of 20/1+ shots at the bookies. I think I would come out on top v bookies prices for any combination of winners.
To be fair I haven't looked into racing, I'm going on football, tennis, and other sports, and what I said was true every time I tried it. If horse racing is calculated differently (why, I have no idea) that is a different matter.
Feck, if you place a bet with a bookie you can often get more on (albeit more than likely at a shorter price) and when said bookie takes your bet he doesnt then immediately go on Betfair and arb it or hedge it.
The bookie hasn't a clue what the betfair shrewdies are doing though. I'm quite sure if he had the opportunity to front run them he'd do things differently.
What will happen with Betfair's sportsbook is something like this...
On the exchange £100 is available to bet at 2.3. Betfair's sportsbook offer a maximum of 100 at 2.2. Punter takes the 100 at 2.2 on the sportsbook and the 2.3 immediately disappears. Therefore there is no point in the sportsbook for anybody who wants to win.
So they're going to have a sportsbook where the maximum stake on some selections will be £2 (first come first served) and no offers on some other selections?
I stand by what I said.
The bookie hasn't a clue what the betfair shrewdies are doing though. I'm quite sure if he had the opportunity to front run them he'd do things differently.
What will happen with Betfair's sportsbook is something like this...
On the exchange £100 is available to bet at 2.3. Betfair's sportsbook offer a maximum of 100 at 2.2. Punter takes the 100 at 2.2 on the sportsbook and the 2.3 immediately disappears. Therefore there is no point in the sportsbook for anybody who wants to win.
So they're going to have a sportsbook where the maximum stake on some selections will be £2 (first come first served) and no offers on some other selections?
I stand by what I said.
So they're going to have a sportsbook where the maximum stake on some selections will be £2 (first come first served) and no offers on some other selections?
I stand by what I said.
..........
Yes imo or not offer odds at all. I dont expect any prices at all from the Betfair sportsbook on my fave events.
I stand by what I said.
..........
Yes imo or not offer odds at all. I dont expect any prices at all from the Betfair sportsbook on my fave events.
That means they'll be a bookie with no early prices on horse racing, no ante-post betting and their football coupon will come out on a Saturday at half two?
They must be kicking themselves for not coming up with it earlier Feck 
They probably did Lori. It's just taken 8 years to come to fruition.
That means they'll be a bookie with no early prices on horse racing, no ante-post betting and their football coupon will come out on a Saturday at half two?
......................
Bit harsh but the principle is right imho
......................
Bit harsh but the principle is right imho
How can I buy share? They are cheap now I think at seven pounds each.
How can I buy share? Get On MASSIVE tell me. I like Betfair, I think is good company.
I want to buy ten share. I think they are cheap now and will be more soon. Maybe if I win can have a nice christmas time!
I'd just buy them if I was you rather than informing the world. Someone might try to front run you now your intentions are public knowledge. 
Good ideas Get One Massive.
I think I am bit late, maybe someone saw what I write because afterwards share price has got big :-(
I think I am bit late, maybe someone saw what I write because afterwards share price has got big :-(
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539