General Betting
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09 Jul 11
07:12
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Date Joined:
12 Mar 07
There is apparently a small core of gamblers ( said to be less than 500) who have conservatively aggregated more than 125 million pounds in net profits ( but probably much, much higher) over the years since the inception of BF.
Now all that has effectively come directly out of the pocket of net losing gamblers ( aka mugs).
Now this small core of gamblers, plus a few others getting close to being in that group, want us all to join them in a mass migration to another exchange from the 18th of this month onwards.
Why?
Because BF has decided to super tax their future profits ( note not retroactively tax their "in the bank" withdrawn past profits). This super tax to be used by BF for the benefit of everybody in the exchange, both current and future, by being ploughed back into technical improvements and into expanding the customer base.
These shrewdies want us mugs to join them in going over to another exchange which doesn't have this super tax, but has the same sort of unsustainable early day commission structure that BF had ( even lower in fact).
Why ? So that they ( the shrewdies) can repeat the whole exercise over again, that is make 100's of millions at our expense, before they are eventually caught out and stopped again, which will happen inevitably.
And so they ask us, very politely of course, to voluntarily lay on our backs and be raped and pillaged all over again.
Come on fellow mugs, wake up and smell the coffee.
Now all that has effectively come directly out of the pocket of net losing gamblers ( aka mugs).
Now this small core of gamblers, plus a few others getting close to being in that group, want us all to join them in a mass migration to another exchange from the 18th of this month onwards.
Why?
Because BF has decided to super tax their future profits ( note not retroactively tax their "in the bank" withdrawn past profits). This super tax to be used by BF for the benefit of everybody in the exchange, both current and future, by being ploughed back into technical improvements and into expanding the customer base.
These shrewdies want us mugs to join them in going over to another exchange which doesn't have this super tax, but has the same sort of unsustainable early day commission structure that BF had ( even lower in fact).
Why ? So that they ( the shrewdies) can repeat the whole exercise over again, that is make 100's of millions at our expense, before they are eventually caught out and stopped again, which will happen inevitably.
And so they ask us, very politely of course, to voluntarily lay on our backs and be raped and pillaged all over again.
Come on fellow mugs, wake up and smell the coffee.
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Replies: 131
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Course 101 in " How to become the most hated poster on this forum ".
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nice trick feck......how did you move your post from this thread to another thread? curious......
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It's been deleted. Too truth hurts.
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has that been deleted too?
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FAFH - Mugs will be mugs whatever happens, wherever they go. The real point is that even mugs aspire to be winners at some point and the trend that BF has set with numerous moves: reconfiging the commission points, cross matching, first pc and now super pc just serve to indicate that they will never get a fair crack of the whip. Now assuming these 500 move to say purple (won't happen) but say for your argument it does and the mugs stay here do you really think they are going to lose less quickly or heaven behold win? Not a chance as the next best punters will clean them up just as fast and probably they'll lose more as the odds will be worse.
Either way the mugs will always lose. |
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To think I unblocked you to read that commercial for BF.
If BF's operating margins on the sports exchange are much less 80% they need to start firing people for incompetance. And the 'supertax' will go straight into management bonuses and shareholder dividends. Back on block for you Mr Frog. |
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FAFH
I'm with you. The shrewdies grinding each other into a Darwinian purple dust. Meanwhile, the mugs left here enjoying more bang for their buck. |
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Johnny - keep dreaming. It will be no different for the mugs just you may be donating your money to a regular PC payer or a near PC payer instead - that's all that will happen if anything.
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They won't be though Johnny. Those who choose to pay the pc (or betfair themselves) take up the slack left by those who don't. It's like swapping your energy provider. Same charges different ponce.
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Exactly racing,
For the vast majority - Nothing changes. Why are so many telling us otherwise? |
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Johnny - people with a vested interest ie affected will obviously complain as it affects them but you have to read between the lines as where this goes as to why so many are complaining. BF has clearly shown the P/L and pleasing the shareholders is the bottom line and this pc move is just another step in that direction. Where will it end and how bothered are BF about the product and the principles on why it was set up?
All that will happen if enough people don't take a stand is the product will become less liquid, BF will make less profit and the net of PC and/or other charges will just widen and widen or BF realises the error of its way and goes back many years which is almost impossible for it to do given its investment. Ultimately the product dies and the mugs will lose even faster with the bookies who will be able take the pi55 even more. |
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Racing
We just don't care what is going on 'behind the scenes', and what all this means to the future of the exchange. All the vast majority want is close to 100% books on high profile events with prices that beat the HS (after commission). We are still going to get that here, and again, we don't care who is on the other side of our bet. If Betfair mess up their business model and the above changes then market forces would - - make us look elsewhere for best prices or not bet on that event at all. - ensure other exchanges see a gap in the market and move in to fill the void. |
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JTG - All the vast majority want is close to 100% books on high profile events with prices that beat the HS (after commission).
That is not the case right now especially for horses so how's that gonna improve? |
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If the best price isn't on here then we can bet with the fixed odds boys.
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Racing
I'm not saying that you can turn losers into winners ever. I'm just saying that don't destroy the exchange we have here on BF, that is everybody upping sticks and disappearing, just to line the coffers of a few elite. They are not thinking about us, they're just thinking about themselves. |
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Johnny
That's the point can we all ?. I can't get on with them. Can you ? |
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FATH, I take seriously at least the idea that many of the pc elite give the mugs better prices or at least some price at any moment in time than they wd otherwise be getting.
Sure, others on better terms from the company will rise to take their place, but 1) if this is bf themselves, they may not find the winners' strategies easy to replicate--and may offer even worse prices; 2) if it's some other player, their strategy may need finetuning, meaning that they factor in a bigger margin and offer the mugs even worse prices. If their strategy doesn't pay, they drop out of that market segment. There will be people who want a flutter and don't necessarily expect to win and all classes of winners serve these. Or, to put it another way, different punters pay according to a diff. ratio (in any one wager) for the excitement/interest part of the bet and the implied value wrt to the bet's chances of winning. |
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I don't give a damn how much the top 500 earners make on here any more than I care how much profit the highstreet firms make from the same mugs.
All I want is someone to take my bets without a middle man (betfair) nicking too much of my winnings. The highstreet won't take my bets at all or won't lay the amounts I want to get on. These 500 will lay my bets. If they move to the purple place I will follow. I already have where possible. Also as Askarani says. If these 500 all moved then the mugs you claim to care about, froggy, will lose their moeny even quicker as the markets will inevitably become less efficient. |
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All I want is someone to take my bets without a middle man
You and me both. |
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I think it's logical to assume that if it is viable many of the 480 will already be playing with the purple. Why not? My bot could just as easily play on both at once and I would operate quite happily like this whilst profitable. Maybe some are doing this, maybe they have had the door closed like me, either way to assume a mass exodus is a little naive.
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For a moment I thought there was an outbreak of agreement then I understood the irony.
My view is that if someone stays tuned to a long-running event like a test match or television game show (in one sense v. similar events) and has the ability to respond promptly throughout to odds-changing events then they are providing some kind of service. Of course, though, to give the other side of the argument its due, the bulk of these people's profits will come minimal-risk, courtsiding-type bets. |
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I very much doubt there will be a mass exodus.
Just a slow decline on here and a slow but steady shift elsewhere. |
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Anyone who thinks there will be a "free lunch" on here come the 18th is naive in the extreme.
A lot of people will get software that offers on Betquack simultaneously. Betquack offer lower commission so why wouldn't anyone take the exact same bet over there as it saves you money? If and it's a huge if and Betquack get a proper foothold in the exchange share it could all be over very quickly for Betfair. Why any punter would defend Betfair in all of this is beyond me. |
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It is only a minority that wish to bet in £00s and £000s or aspire to do this full time.
Whatever the 'elite' do, in this internet age, market forces will always ensure that us 'mugs' wanting to bet 10/25/50s etc will still be looking at industry wide 100% books. |
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If the 500 moved then there wouldn't be 100% books on here.
Certainly not to the amounts of money available now anyway. That won't just affect the minority who want to get 1000's on, but will also affect the 1000's who want to get a tenner on. |
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JTG, until you win and are then restricted.
Anyone gambling for the social side of it or recreationally would be well-advised never to win, in case someone takes it wrong and bars them from betting. By not banning anyone (in any way), bf ensured that the liquidity wd always be here for the casual losing gambler. In driving out the people who occupied these niches, they may make it harder for small players to have a bet. |
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Five leaves, surely it depends on which events.
In the low-liquidity events wh/ market-makers can price up quickly and offer poor-value, 'always-on' prices, there may be a lot of gaps in the market. In football, horses and tennis, to take the three most obvious cases, I very much doubt there'll be any change. |
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That's where our opinion differs.
The internet ensures the recreational gambler will have industry wide 100% books to pick from. We can have our fun,a fighting chance of making a profit over the year, and still get nowhere near paying any PC charges. |
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The reality is that most recreational punters aren't price sensitive and will just bet where is easiest for them, reagardless of price.
If that choice is usually betfair, then they'll lose more quickly, probably without knowing why |
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askari
Even in the low liquidity markets , if there is money to be made, market forces will ensure somebody will step up to fill the void. Gaps in any business market don't last long. |
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Five leaves,
If the punters on here start losing their money quicker because they are now getting worse prices, then market forces will ensure other layers move in, offering them slighty better prices. That's the beauty of the free market. |
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Five leaves
Do you win here on Betfair? |
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Yes, Jimmy and pay PC @ 20%. Will pay at 60% if I ever get to 250K, but am way off that atm.
If that was the case Johnny, then why isn't it the case on the purple place too and on the smaller markets on here? There is only so much money to go round and if some of that money moves to the purple place or elsewhere then holes will appear on here. |
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..and the 'mugs' will get a worse deal.
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I can understand why people are upset about this increase but surely you should be grateful that you have the opportunity to win in the first place (given to you by Betfair).
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I was winning before betfair and I've won more on the HS than I have on betfair over the last 4 years, but yes betfair was a wonderful concept and I'm very pleased that it's around.
My fear is those who now run it have lost their way and will eventually kill the golden goose for everyone. |
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jimmy69 Joined: 11 Apr 01
Replies: 13853 09 Jul 11 12:33 I can understand why people are upset about this increase but surely you should be grateful that you have the opportunity to win in the first place (given to you by Betfair). It's harder to win at gambling now than it was pre-Betfair. It's made the lifestyle easier, but the actual winning is tougher than ever before thanks to more efficient pricing and generally raised understanding of the business. |
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Well in all fairness, I suggest that a lot of the so called 480 (or is it up to 520 by now?) are market takers.
In fact, I would love to see a makeup of the so called accounts betting activities, in regards to profits/rates/turnover etc, even a combined. Surely if they can call 480, they can combine, no privacy leak there. Would also love the real story behind this. Maybe this is a do this or BF is dead within the year type of deal. I mean if there are these super algorithm bots out there that have been playing the markets all this time, then it stands to reason that their betting is increasing daily, pulling more and more out of the exchange every day to the point where there was no other option. Obviously, they would not make this public. Without knowing the details, most of it is speculation. Problem is, I know of a few that are leaving the site that certainly aren't big fish, just people plodding along, making a decent wage, certainly not super punters or anything, although in saying that, I suspect they aren't market makers either except on the way back down/up... I also know that it is quite possible that long term losing punters can easily get caught out through variance and leave as soon as PC hits them. And I know that with the way I bet, once I qualify, a good run can easily put me in the poor house due to PC charges even though I will be at around 35% generated charges. |
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Five Leaves,
Looks like a 'chicken or egg' situation will develop - - Will the layers stay here,(or others move in), because this is where the 'mugs' are? Or - Will the 'mugs' turn purple because that's where the layers are? I know which I believe will happen. But I,and many others I'm sure, will just go wherever the best price is. |