£100k profit will be made on this thread - by the end of July!

Poor first half from the Bulldogs, 12-0 down. Unlucky to be 12 down but definitely need to up their game in the second half. A Bulldogs comeback is likely though in my view, so I have availed myself of the 9/2 on offer at Bet365 for £300.

1st score in this 2nd half is crucial!

Total Bank at the moment is £8,300.

Surely you are a bf plant.

You make money on yr 'day job' trading long-term markets and yr immediate concern is to start some **** challenge i.e. w/ something other than the new pc?

Good specials and long-run events players doing it full-time are paying much less than the 20% pc threshold basic. If they've won more than 250k (perhaps unlikely given how few events they have) they are about to give 65% of it back. Yet yr language is all 'boo hiss' and 'bread and butter punting'?

*some dumb challenge (nearly the word I used)

If you were watching the first 15 minutes of the match and the price fluctuations you would have traded out as Bulldogs did not nor do they look like scoring, This challenge is down $1700. You could have got out on $1.55 after 15 minutes of clear lack of attack or creativity by canterbury. They've got nothing and had nothing all season.

Penrith on the other hand are always capable of an "upset" especially at home on a Saturday night???

Askari - you're making a number of assumptions there my friend. Do I operate on Betfair alone? No. Do I operate on Betfair predominantly? No. I have little interest in the PC as it isn't relevant to me, but I do think it is ill conceived (so much for being a BF plant). Why you feel the need to bring up the PC is beyond me. "Some dumb challenge"? You got out of the wong side of the bed this morning? If thats your view, then move along. Its a bit of fun, that could get interesting after an admittedly appalling start. Let's see though eh?

GC - no trading on these bets, certainly not with relatively low amounts - I may break this rule if the amounts get larger :-)

Bet 4 - Kvitova to win, £1k @ 2.58

Current Bank is £7300

Do you operate on BF alone?? no, you state??

But you joined today??????

you maytrade if you bet larger?? what 15% of your bank is not large enough??

I give you credit for having a sense of humour, cause I am in stitches.

I joined today did I? I had a Betfair account before you'd even heard of the site.....

And it's definitely true to say that this forum has gone downhill dramatically since those days. You two are good examples of the types that inhabit this place now.

Thanks for the credit you give me, I give you none in return - you've fallen into the same elementary mistakes as askari.

And yes, it can be a much larger bet at the same % dependent upon the size of the bank in question. You really are being a bit foolish aren't you.

Anyways......Kvitova to start strongly, build an early lead and hold on.....just. No trading out here though. Fingers crossed.

MrBiswas
Joined Betfair: 02 Jul 11
My blog

maybe I have been involved with Doc and Marty and gone back to the future???

I know you Aussies are not renowned for your intelligence (great drinking buddies though [;)] ), but do I really need to talk you through this?

So what to do now??

Sharapova will lose the first set and be paying about $2.70??

Do you have $1000 on her at that price, giving you green of about $600 regardless of the outcome???

I think the occassion might get to this Kvitova chick when it really matters???

If I were a betting man I'd be laying Kvitova now at $1.57 to recoup some of the footy loss???

But thats just me.

Kvitova is home and hosed now??? you would have to think???

But I'd have traded out cause in sport anything can happen??

Sharapova will lose the first set and be paying about $2.70??

Really? Market reading isn't your strong suit....

Trading out is not in the spirit of this thread, although if/when the amounts involved are greater I may well take a more pragmatic view.

Net profit £1501, so running total of £9801.

A few bets to come on the UFC tonight, if anyone has any opinions to offer on what should be a good card tonight, I would love to hear them? I'm a big fan of Cruz and can see him outpointing Faber tonight. Silva is on my 'to get' list and so will be opposing him - as long as Leben has prepared properly he will win by stoppage. Bader will be way too much for Tito, just not a great price.

Just can't bring myself to put anything decent on the boxing, will just enjoy it with a beer I think.

One for the Aussies on the card, Sotiropoulos is decent value at around 1.5 to beat Dos Anjos.....and perhaps a few quid on the Stun Gun to beat Condit.

I'll post the exact bets before the event later.

Gold Coast you seen my reply to you on the other thread yet?

No Paulme what reply was that?? Though I did see one where you suggested I visit your horse tippiong thread as you stated I was "aftertiming" is that what you call posting tips after the race?? 

If so your wrong, very wrong I post all my tips 2-3 mins before the race starts. Just wonder over to the aussie forum wait for a raceday thread to start and ask if I post my lays before during or after the race, the 20 or so regulars over there will confirm they are all posted before the race, oh and ask them what my success rate is too, they'll too confirm that my lay system has about an 85-90% success rate and the price of my lays are always under $5.

Mrbiswas, well done on holding out on the tennis, I prefer a bird in the hand to two in the bush and you gotta admit womans tennis hardly goes to script??? look at the losers this years,top 15 woman all lost Kvitova could have easily choked??

I disagree GC. I had a fair few quid tied up with lays on both Williams sisters and also on Wozniacki - all 3 were way too short in a very open competition this year.

UFC shortly.......

Kim to beat Condit - £1000 @ 1.9

Running total £8801

Bader to smash Tito into retirement by stoppage 2000 @ 1.90

Sorry, not 1.9 its 3.0.......been a long day :-)

£6801

Leben to beat Silva 1800 @ 2.9

Can't string anything together today, but Leben winning so back to square one.....

Total Bank = £10,050.

pm'd you gold coast

£1000 on Roosters at aggregated 5.6 midway through the first half whilst 12 down.

Raiders are there for the taking if the Roosters can get their act together.

Bank is £9,050.

All the breaks are going to Raiders, lets hope this starts to even out......still happy with the bet at this stage despite being 10 down.

Drops the ball going over the line! Unbelievable......

Bombed near the line again. Highly frustrating.

roosters have only won 3 games all year they are useless home or away they are one of 4 teams you should never back this year.

Gold Coast
Souths
Easts
Canterbury

Raiders are awful too.

I didnt punt pre game, as I agree Roosters are not to be trusted to perform this year. I do think they were a decent value punt at near 5/1 whilst still in the game before half time.....against a poor team....and not having had any rub of the green.

Lets put it another way, I def wouldnt have been backing Raiders at 1/5 at the same stage, terrible value.....so Roosters where at worst reasonable value to get back into the match. Which they did, albeit briefly, and there was a good trade out at nearly half the price I backed them at.

Next wager is on the State of Origin decider.

I have been on the right side of the result in the opening two games, and despite the fact that I cannot see the Maroons running away with it, I just don't see anything other than a Lockyer inspired win for the Queenslanders. First choice back division, bigger pack (need to dominate the mobile Blues pack as they did in the first game) and a better half back pairing. Plus, theyre at home.....and perhaps as important as any of this, its Lockyer's final Origin game.

Tight, pulsating and dramatic.....I'm really looking forward to this one tomorrow!

£2,500 on Queensland at 1.62, which leaves the bank at £6,550 pending this result.

Gold Coast - let's have your input before the game this time please.

Just realised I didnt post my bet for the Cruz/Faber fight. Profit on it was £1,850......

Running total is therefore £8,400 pending the Origin result.

£100K will be made - and you will see only 40% of it.

Why's that?

24-0 to Q'land at 38 mins....

24-10 at half time.

Should still win comfortably, but this has reminded me why I trade out normally. 1.02 traded quite heavily before NSW score 2 late tries.

Q'land just too much for them, great series though. Shame about the injury to Thurston, looks a bad one.

£1475 profit.

Bank is £12,375

+2,375.

judging by the post count he's obviously new here (although not to the world of gambling im sure! ;) ) so premium charge will not apply yet.

your staking....from a hundreds to thousands.....

No bet has been less than a grand?

The first one was 1,500 split across 2 markets on the same event.

I dont mind you making a point about how I'm staking, but please get your facts right.

Super League bet tonight. Can only see a whipping for Cas. If Wigan can pull away early, the young inexperienced Cas team could well fall apart. For me it should be a 30+ superiority for the home side.

£1500 Wigan (-28.5) at 2.32.

Good luck!

Mr B

Did you have £1500 at 2.32?

And if you did have £1500 at 2.32 post yer bets. Tar.

mrbiswasp

please post your actual bet from last nite...thanks

Mr Biswas, perhaps you make good long-term profits in a 'day job' on something other than sports betting--commodities or futures or some financial market.

You are staking very large portions of yr bank (up to 25% or have I got that wrong?) when bettors not religiously using Kelly wd feel confident if wagering around 3% and positively bullish wagering 5%.

If yr selections do turn out to be so much better than the market that you get anywhere near yr target, I guarantee you that you'll start to be agitated by the pc. Good luck

Bank - +875.

I dont use bf exclusively, so a price can be aggregated across more than 1 market and/or averaged across more than 1 price. Sometimes not easy to get on if the liquidity isnt great on a specific market on here, so have to hunt elsewhere.

I also assume a 5% deduction when often there is no commission to pay, just to keep it simple.

As for staking - I have set aside £10k to have a bit of fun with. If I'm successful great, if not then so be it. As such a 'sensible' staking plan goes out of the window. The point is that being disciplined is contrary to my punting instincts, so this is a bit of fun - which may or may not get to serious money.

It certainly wont get to serious money with sub 5% outlays.

Next bet in the NRL - £2000 double Warriors and Tigers (1/3 and 8/11)

Mr Bis if you go over the the aussie forum you'd have seen my thoughts on the origin match, Qld by plenty was my tip.

Tonights footy you've picked the 2 sides I'd have picked.

Are Pommies allowed in there?

[;)]

It certainly wont get to serious money with sub 5% outlays.


Mr Biswas, you are not a sports punter or seasoned betfairain. People run up considerable amounts of money on here with outlays of less than 5% of their bank through being methodical (perhaps automated), careful, intensive w/ their capital and through harnessing compounding.

I'd go as far as to say the only (non-insider) way you can win good amounts betting in some non-streaky way is by accumulating tiny advantages.

I'd be interested to know where Mr B is getting his £1500+ bets on. He says it's not BF
and yet he expects us to accept that he's a winning punter. Many of the winning punters
I know have difficulty getting £50 on.

I agree askari, but again you're making comments without reading my original post (or thread title for that matter) properly.

Have another read, and you'll hopefully grasp what this thread is attempting to achieve.

For the avoidance of doubt, it is a bit of fun to see if I can turn 10k into 100k within a month. That is highly unlikely without taking a few risks. It is not a thread to bet conservatively. My life wont change one iota if it all goes pete tong within a few days.

Do try to keep up......

Pete - I'm not expecting you to accept anything. As with askari above, please re-read my initial post (properly this time) and you will realise your misunderstandings.

Ta!

wot an absolute pile of sh!t.

-1125

£1500 on the Sharks/Crusaders double in the NRL and Super 15 final, both trading at 1.7 paying just under 2/1.

An interesting read.

-2625.

An interesting read.

Which bit is interesting Steamship?

I'd find it more interesting if Mr B told us where he is getting the prices he is taking.

Why's that Pete?

All prices quoted are freely available at the time of posting.

Which price(s) are you concerned about?

£1000 at 2.75 (betfred) for Warwickshire to beat Lancs.

Bank is £6375 pending this result.

"£1000 at 2.75 (betfred) for Warwickshire to beat Lancs"

lmao, the only possible way you could get a bet like that on with this outfit is if you are a collosal loser. So one way or another, this thread does not make sense.

Really? Yet more assumptions.......and plainly wrong, perfectly possible to get a grand on whetjer they know you or not.

Wish I hadnt got it on though......

£6375.

£2.5k Warriors to beat the Bulldogs at 1.55.

£7750.

£1500 on Hull to beat Leeds at 3.0

£2500 Hull(+8.5) at 1.75

@MrBiswas

I do believe you should extend your time frame, I don't think many of those following your moves would mind if you came out and decided to do so for the benefit of actually having a fighting chance to reach your target.

It's obvious to me that askari1 has offered you some good advice. So far, your betting gives the impression of someone lighting money simply to light their cigar, whilst eating baked beans for supper in a pub's dunny between buying drinks for your mates. Your not-so incremental bets are forcing your bank on the downslide, and your attitude in response to many, into a tailspin; pretty much like the seriousness of your thread.

This is a smelly and unhealthy atmosphere you have set for those taking a swing by, and there is really only one way which such atmosphere's end up. 10K down and kicking an empty can home.

I'm glad my local hardware store stocked gasmasks, for I had to put one on in order to stay here thus far.

Cheers,
SP

Mr Biswas

I cannot understand how you have 10k to burn given the way you are betting.

You say that you have made money trading and arbing i.e. on sports betting markets, yet the way you are going about even taking value positions is entirely unlike any way to profit (through skill) that I've ever seen.

Absolutely the worst hypothesis, I've decided, is if you are a Betfair Australia plant. That would only show the depth of ignorance within the company about betting.

But presuming you are legit, why not revise yr ideas, state the price you think any selection shd be and bet a Kelly fraction of your 10k bank?

That way, you are likely to reap the benefit of any edge you have and you will be compounding yr funds soon enough.

@askari1

I think you are wasting your energy on a bozo who would likely see your good sense and wise thinking as an attack on his in-a-hurry nature and betting ways. Nevertheless, he is a MrB who seems that he was here and is gone, now. So much so that if he got a streaky run going from the outset, he would have been here to admonish our foolishness in not following his winning ways, sooner. A few faults, plus a deeply flawed system you have identified with aplomb, makes this MrB more as I have described.

Calling him out as Betfair Australia plant is doing a disservice to the intelligent manner of the BetFair employee, I feel. So, even as a freelancer he is hardly the kind they would employ to get results for them. Very agitated, and a bit of a dullard, really. All in all a disappointment in style and a sad excuse for a thread.

Cheers,
SP