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29 Jun 11
11:20
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28 May 11
Is it really due to the new PC?
Could it be due to Betfair's announced intention to repurchase shares, or was this information not released at the same time?
Could it be due to Betfair's announced intention to repurchase shares, or was this information not released at the same time?
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Ballabriggs
you have posted at least 5 times "where can i buy some"
seems slightly suspicious to me.... but if you are serious it is not hard to find a place.
barclaysstockbrokers and self invest ISA both cover betfair.... as would almosy every highstreet bank or broker
IG index etc all allow spread betting also if you want leverage.
you have posted at least 5 times "where can i buy some"
seems slightly suspicious to me.... but if you are serious it is not hard to find a place.
barclaysstockbrokers and self invest ISA both cover betfair.... as would almosy every highstreet bank or broker
IG index etc all allow spread betting also if you want leverage.
Getting crushed....
Don't really see why, Q4FY2011 was good... and Q1FY2012 has actaully started very well. (but markets might be irrational longer than I can stay Liquid LOL)
........................
I thought the same on first reading fwiw. but accounts and attached blurb will always look good on first reading, by design, as it's partly investor PR. It's when you delve deeper into the figures that you get a better appreciation of what's going on. Looking at the positives it's good to see the brokers and markets have given the thumbs down to their latest venture.
Don't really see why, Q4FY2011 was good... and Q1FY2012 has actaully started very well. (but markets might be irrational longer than I can stay Liquid LOL)
........................
I thought the same on first reading fwiw. but accounts and attached blurb will always look good on first reading, by design, as it's partly investor PR. It's when you delve deeper into the figures that you get a better appreciation of what's going on. Looking at the positives it's good to see the brokers and markets have given the thumbs down to their latest venture.
Clyde.
looking at the growth Sport by sport - they are really all positive.
in top seven sports
5 show good growth
2 are flattish ( though in 2012 racing looks like it will reverse this trend)
the turnover for Q1FY2012 is ticking along very nicely also.... so I will expecting good Q1FY2012
looking at the growth Sport by sport - they are really all positive.
in top seven sports
5 show good growth
2 are flattish ( though in 2012 racing looks like it will reverse this trend)
the turnover for Q1FY2012 is ticking along very nicely also.... so I will expecting good Q1FY2012
Magician, I dont know what your experiences with stock markets are, but I can assure you that investors (the market) are much more interested in earnings and performance in the coming year(s) than they are in numbers allready released.
The biggest concern for Betfair share holders is how can the company grow. All this talk and rumours of Countries imposing restrictions certainly is a big negative.
Another concern imo that could be a bigger threat, even if most share holders in unaware of it, is that Betfair is now opening up for big growth for one or more of their competitors by raising the Premium Charges.
The biggest concern for Betfair share holders is how can the company grow. All this talk and rumours of Countries imposing restrictions certainly is a big negative.
Another concern imo that could be a bigger threat, even if most share holders in unaware of it, is that Betfair is now opening up for big growth for one or more of their competitors by raising the Premium Charges.
Bayes , Betfair's yearly reprts are baesed on 12 month periods from May to April, hence the FY 2011.
Bayes
FY2012....
I am commenting on Q1FY2012 we are some 65 days into it already - and turnover looks good
FY2012....
I am commenting on Q1FY2012 we are some 65 days into it already - and turnover looks good
Its getting down to a ore realistic level but think it may go at 4.50 or so before it bottoms out.
BF was sold on a completely unrealistic multiple so most of this drop is just a natural correction as people have woken up to the fact that BF isn't gonna conquer the world.
BF was sold on a completely unrealistic multiple so most of this drop is just a natural correction as people have woken up to the fact that BF isn't gonna conquer the world.
I agree with racingguru the price needs to get to a realistiuc level before it bottoms out.I think 4.50 or lower too.
The stock market drop and world market slow down and also the big worry today of european debt contagian
doenst at all help the share.A big worry more countries in europe will shut the door on betting exchanges
at a time people are spending less and taking the time to pay off their credit /debit card debts etc.
The stock market drop and world market slow down and also the big worry today of european debt contagian
doenst at all help the share.A big worry more countries in europe will shut the door on betting exchanges
at a time people are spending less and taking the time to pay off their credit /debit card debts etc.
Surely pure karma that it should lose between 40 and 60% of it's original price.
racingguru
Date Joined: 06 Jan 01
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When: 11 Jul 11 15:36
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Its getting down to a ore realistic level but think it may go at 4.50 or so before it bottoms out.
BF was sold on a completely unrealistic multiple so most of this drop is just a natural correction as people have woken up to the fact that BF isn't gonna conquer the world.
The reason the multiple is dropping is that Betfair is becoming a traditional bookmaker (p/e 12 like Willhill) and moving a way from being a betting exchange (p/e 34).
They're killing their own growth by disincentivising their most profitable customers to invest in long term solutions to profit from the exchange. It's more a case of make as much money as possible, as quickly as possible before the game's up.
Unless Betfair reverse the decision to develop their bookmaking business at the expense of their betting exchange business, things won't end well.
If Betfair thinks they can get rid of winners and seed the whole exchange themselves, they might as well go ahead and try boiling the ocean. They can be a low cost operator: betting exchange, or a relatively high margin operator: traditional bookie. If they try to combine the two (currently they exist separately), another company will inevitably take over as the world's largest betting exchange.
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Its getting down to a ore realistic level but think it may go at 4.50 or so before it bottoms out.
BF was sold on a completely unrealistic multiple so most of this drop is just a natural correction as people have woken up to the fact that BF isn't gonna conquer the world.
The reason the multiple is dropping is that Betfair is becoming a traditional bookmaker (p/e 12 like Willhill) and moving a way from being a betting exchange (p/e 34).
They're killing their own growth by disincentivising their most profitable customers to invest in long term solutions to profit from the exchange. It's more a case of make as much money as possible, as quickly as possible before the game's up.
Unless Betfair reverse the decision to develop their bookmaking business at the expense of their betting exchange business, things won't end well.
If Betfair thinks they can get rid of winners and seed the whole exchange themselves, they might as well go ahead and try boiling the ocean. They can be a low cost operator: betting exchange, or a relatively high margin operator: traditional bookie. If they try to combine the two (currently they exist separately), another company will inevitably take over as the world's largest betting exchange.
Theinvestor2,
You are absolutely right.
It's all too common with high tech companies that go public.
They diversify away from their initial product. Diversifications fail and the neglect of their core product caused by the diversification sees that overtaken by a competitor.
You are absolutely right.
It's all too common with high tech companies that go public.
They diversify away from their initial product. Diversifications fail and the neglect of their core product caused by the diversification sees that overtaken by a competitor.
"On balance, I reckon these shares are a bad bet.
Will Betfair find the going any better this week? Unikely.
So far, July has not treated the betting exchange kindly.
But then, neither did June or May.
This morning shares fell 4% after closing down nearly 6% on Friday, taking them to just 654.5p.
When Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley floated it last October, they persuaded investors it was worth… ahem, 1300p. Well done, lads: big fee well earned.
So what's going on? As anyone who's considered taking a flutter on online gambling stocks will tell you, there's a massive risk involved in their operations overseas, where many countries still take a dim view of online gambling.
Fines and trading bans have a nasty habit of appearing out of the blue from governments launching electioneering clampdowns. What's more, there are fewer gamblers these days and Britons don't have the money to spend dabbling around on the horses.
But investors are also getting wise to more of a Betfair-specific problem. There's a growing suspicion among analysts that the company is being a tad too aggressive with its accounting practices.
Betfair is having to invest in developing its IT to run faster, better services. The question is, does this spending always show through clearly in its profit figures? Betfair put up to £25 million of its IT development costs last year on its balance sheet instead of taking it out of its profit figures as a more conservative company might.
A nice chap from Betfair explains this simply gives a better picture of the underlying way the business is performing during a three-year heavy investment period, smoothing out the costs.
But some investors are still unnerved and troubled about the implications for Betfair's value.
You see, if you put that £25 million through the profit and loss account underlying profits come out about 30% lower. To make things more scary, that £25 million expensed cost is about £10 million up on the previous year - one hell of an acceleration in the wrong direction.
As one investor told me this morning, if you see Betfair as, say, an IG Index for wannabe turf accountants, you can understand the concern. IG's shares today value it at 12.5 times its expected profits for 2012. Betfair is valued at 18.5 times. Sounding toppy? That's nothing. Put Betfair's IT development cost through the P&L and the share price is a thumping multiple of 24 times. That seems like the kind of mispriced bet that would see you getting crucified by Betfair's famously sharp customers.
Chief executive David Yu recently announced he was off. Shareholders should follow."
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/markets/article-23968817-murdoch-could-reach-for-sky-with-uk-papers-sell-off.do
Will Betfair find the going any better this week? Unikely.
So far, July has not treated the betting exchange kindly.
But then, neither did June or May.
This morning shares fell 4% after closing down nearly 6% on Friday, taking them to just 654.5p.
When Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley floated it last October, they persuaded investors it was worth… ahem, 1300p. Well done, lads: big fee well earned.
So what's going on? As anyone who's considered taking a flutter on online gambling stocks will tell you, there's a massive risk involved in their operations overseas, where many countries still take a dim view of online gambling.
Fines and trading bans have a nasty habit of appearing out of the blue from governments launching electioneering clampdowns. What's more, there are fewer gamblers these days and Britons don't have the money to spend dabbling around on the horses.
But investors are also getting wise to more of a Betfair-specific problem. There's a growing suspicion among analysts that the company is being a tad too aggressive with its accounting practices.
Betfair is having to invest in developing its IT to run faster, better services. The question is, does this spending always show through clearly in its profit figures? Betfair put up to £25 million of its IT development costs last year on its balance sheet instead of taking it out of its profit figures as a more conservative company might.
A nice chap from Betfair explains this simply gives a better picture of the underlying way the business is performing during a three-year heavy investment period, smoothing out the costs.
But some investors are still unnerved and troubled about the implications for Betfair's value.
You see, if you put that £25 million through the profit and loss account underlying profits come out about 30% lower. To make things more scary, that £25 million expensed cost is about £10 million up on the previous year - one hell of an acceleration in the wrong direction.
As one investor told me this morning, if you see Betfair as, say, an IG Index for wannabe turf accountants, you can understand the concern. IG's shares today value it at 12.5 times its expected profits for 2012. Betfair is valued at 18.5 times. Sounding toppy? That's nothing. Put Betfair's IT development cost through the P&L and the share price is a thumping multiple of 24 times. That seems like the kind of mispriced bet that would see you getting crucified by Betfair's famously sharp customers.
Chief executive David Yu recently announced he was off. Shareholders should follow."
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/markets/article-23968817-murdoch-could-reach-for-sky-with-uk-papers-sell-off.do
I would think large parts of the business must be loss making. Had it just stuck to being a betting exchange and concentrated all its efforts into that, I'm sure it would be in a lot better position than it is now. As a stand alone exchange the business was marketing itself. It would be a simpler, leaner fighting machine.
None of the other parts of the business would stand a snowballs chance in hell of being succesful as stand alone products, they just cling on like parasites using the Betfair brand to garnish what profit they can, but in doing so they damage the core product and the brand.
Those IT costs were all about servicing the needs of middlemen. The only people in the world who like middlemen would appear to be middlemen and betfair management. Cut out the middlemen you stupid ****s.
feck's right about that. that's everyone's future for a while yet. also my future on the ubf feck 
TheInvestor2
The reason the multiple is dropping is that Betfair is becoming a traditional bookmaker (p/e 12 like Willhill) and moving a way from being a betting exchange (p/e 34).
They're killing their own growth by disincentivising their most profitable customers to invest in long term solutions to profit from the exchange. It's more a case of make as much money as possible, as quickly as possible before the game's up.
Unless Betfair reverse the decision to develop their bookmaking business at the expense of their betting exchange business, things won't end well.
If Betfair thinks they can get rid of winners and seed the whole exchange themselves, they might as well go ahead and try boiling the ocean. They can be a low cost operator: betting exchange, or a relatively high margin operator: traditional bookie. If they try to combine the two (currently they exist separately), another company will inevitably take over as the world's largest betting exchange.
one of the best posts on here for a long time. spot on.
The reason the multiple is dropping is that Betfair is becoming a traditional bookmaker (p/e 12 like Willhill) and moving a way from being a betting exchange (p/e 34).
They're killing their own growth by disincentivising their most profitable customers to invest in long term solutions to profit from the exchange. It's more a case of make as much money as possible, as quickly as possible before the game's up.
Unless Betfair reverse the decision to develop their bookmaking business at the expense of their betting exchange business, things won't end well.
If Betfair thinks they can get rid of winners and seed the whole exchange themselves, they might as well go ahead and try boiling the ocean. They can be a low cost operator: betting exchange, or a relatively high margin operator: traditional bookie. If they try to combine the two (currently they exist separately), another company will inevitably take over as the world's largest betting exchange.
one of the best posts on here for a long time. spot on.
TheInvestor2
The reason the multiple is dropping is that Betfair is becoming a traditional bookmaker (p/e 12 like Willhill) and moving a way from being a betting exchange (p/e 34).
They're killing their own growth by disincentivising their most profitable customers to invest in long term solutions to profit from the exchange. It's more a case of make as much money as possible, as quickly as possible before the game's up.
Unless Betfair reverse the decision to develop their bookmaking business at the expense of their betting exchange business, things won't end well.
If Betfair thinks they can get rid of winners and seed the whole exchange themselves, they might as well go ahead and try boiling the ocean. They can be a low cost operator: betting exchange, or a relatively high margin operator: traditional bookie. If they try to combine the two (currently they exist separately), another company will inevitably take over as the world's largest betting exchange.
one of the best posts on here for a long time. spot on.
The reason the multiple is dropping is that Betfair is becoming a traditional bookmaker (p/e 12 like Willhill) and moving a way from being a betting exchange (p/e 34).
They're killing their own growth by disincentivising their most profitable customers to invest in long term solutions to profit from the exchange. It's more a case of make as much money as possible, as quickly as possible before the game's up.
Unless Betfair reverse the decision to develop their bookmaking business at the expense of their betting exchange business, things won't end well.
If Betfair thinks they can get rid of winners and seed the whole exchange themselves, they might as well go ahead and try boiling the ocean. They can be a low cost operator: betting exchange, or a relatively high margin operator: traditional bookie. If they try to combine the two (currently they exist separately), another company will inevitably take over as the world's largest betting exchange.
one of the best posts on here for a long time. spot on.
Investor, why do you think they couldn't seed the markets themselves?
I'm not Investor, but if Mansion couldn't do it and more importantly WSEX couldn't do it with all their experience, why on earth would Betfair be able to do it?
Investor, why do you think they couldn't seed the markets themselves?
catfleppo vs the betfair bot?
catfleppo vs the betfair bot?
What happened with TheUltimateToryBoyForum charlatan? Did you say Sir Fred wasn't deserving of his pension or some equally heinous crime.
catfleppo
Date Joined: 22 Feb 07
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When: 13 Jul 11 08:46
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Investor, why do you think they couldn't seed the markets themselves?
I'd say they can under certain circumstances, but in any case it would create a conflict of interests. If they tried to seed the whole thing, offering prices like a traditional bookie with the addition of being able to lay, they would get killed. Unless they widened they spread significantly. In that case they would simply have stopped being an exchange.
After going from 'winners welcome' to 'winners tolerated', many are concerned that this shift in Betfair's policy is a continuing trend.
Date Joined: 22 Feb 07
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When: 13 Jul 11 08:46
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Investor, why do you think they couldn't seed the markets themselves?
I'd say they can under certain circumstances, but in any case it would create a conflict of interests. If they tried to seed the whole thing, offering prices like a traditional bookie with the addition of being able to lay, they would get killed. Unless they widened they spread significantly. In that case they would simply have stopped being an exchange.
After going from 'winners welcome' to 'winners tolerated', many are concerned that this shift in Betfair's policy is a continuing trend.
The fact they've turned their exchange into Last5minutes.com makes seeding a lot less daunting a prospect. Also, according to our altruistic Ferengi friends they'll be only too willing to fill in the spreads.
Betfair will get killed if they seed/participate in their own exchange markets.... even with the advantages of cross matching and clock beating. this will not be enough to protect them from wider participation.
if the separately lay selected customers, and arb back to exchange - they could make some money.
Last5Minutes - is so true, but there is a very good reason for that
if the separately lay selected customers, and arb back to exchange - they could make some money.
Last5Minutes - is so true, but there is a very good reason for that
Betfair will get killed if they seed/participate in their own exchange markets.... even with the advantages of cross matching and clock beating. this will not be enough to protect them from wider participation.
if the separately lay selected customers, and arb back to exchange - they could make some money.
Last5Minutes - is so true, but there is a very good reason for that
if the separately lay selected customers, and arb back to exchange - they could make some money.
Last5Minutes - is so true, but there is a very good reason for that
Betfair have the advantage of stacks of api usage data that they can use to see how people like me have been placing bets. True they can't see my algorithm but they could do a reasonable job of reverse engineering I reckon. The downside would be a loss of the p2p concept but they seem to be inching in that direction anyway.
What if you have bet with Betfair. If you make mistake they say CAVIT Emptor, but if one day you bet not against other peoples but against Betfair, they might void bet if their trader make mistake?
Betfair is good company Lori. They are better than other company and will make betting work good.
ballabriggs, you joined two days ago, and just about every single post you have made is praising betfair....how long have you worked for them?
Seeding the markets is a catch22 for bf.
Because they need a fair market to work from and only a true exchange can provide that.
FYI, a couple of days ago what looked like a bot got taken to the cleaners by astute cricket traders to the tune at least 20K
The suspicion is that it was bf trialing a new bot in an obscure market.
Because they need a fair market to work from and only a true exchange can provide that.
FYI, a couple of days ago what looked like a bot got taken to the cleaners by astute cricket traders to the tune at least 20K
The suspicion is that it was bf trialing a new bot in an obscure market.
Let's hope BF start seeding early horse markets. That will be fun to watch.
Hasn't the suggestion been made that BF is confident of being able to seed the mkts. because, by virtue of reverse engineering, they will be able to replicate the actions of those on here, who have apparently been doing it very successfully for many years ?.
winners here are very clever and make changes necessary as the market changes its behaviour. They are extremely good in picking momentum and patterns. Betfair thick employees working for 2k or less salary will never be able to replicate them.
Betfair will lose money instead of making in seeding. This is not as easy job as everyone thinks.
Betfair will lose money instead of making in seeding. This is not as easy job as everyone thinks.
Never will be able to replicate even if we train them for a month showing them how to make money.
I am talking only about successful position takers and pro market odds readers.
Your 'tell it as it is' post made me smile on one of my worst ever losing days, so thanks u25k 
You know all these things aa forgone conclusions u25K,or you are just guessing what will happen like the rest of us ?.
Btw you could turn out to be right, or you might not. How's that for fence sitting ?
Time will tell.
Btw you could turn out to be right, or you might not. How's that for fence sitting ?
Time will tell.
I can say confidently as I am one of those 40% pc payers. I tried to explain to many on their request what I do and how I do without any secrecy. They are clueless at the end of the day to understand the process. Moral of the story is Betfair employees can't replace successful punters in exchange model.
Bookies manage it by giving poor odds and banning winners.
Ofcourse betfair are indirectly doing the same by charging 40 to 60%
Bookies manage it by giving poor odds and banning winners.
Ofcourse betfair are indirectly doing the same by charging 40 to 60%
u25K
Maybe they're bringing in specialist outside gambling consultants to set all this up in the form of bots.
Could it least be theoretically doable iyo ?
Maybe they're bringing in specialist outside gambling consultants to set all this up in the form of bots.
Could it least be theoretically doable iyo ?
soccer, cricket, tennis, basketball, rugby
tennis is useful only to generate commission as I only breakeven. I don't have fast pics. It is tough market.
soccer contributes 50% of my profits. This shows the fact that I trade fairly.
tennis is useful only to generate commission as I only breakeven. I don't have fast pics. It is tough market.
soccer contributes 50% of my profits. This shows the fact that I trade fairly.
they give poor odds. I don't think they will compete with us in giving fair odds.
Soccer contributes 100% of mine.
I trade fairly, but I can see and understand how BF cannot possibly make any money out of me and my type of punter, just on the standard commission structure.
I don't like that fact, but I can't put my head in the sand and just ignore it and think that it will resolve itself in the normal course of business.
I trade fairly, but I can see and understand how BF cannot possibly make any money out of me and my type of punter, just on the standard commission structure.
I don't like that fact, but I can't put my head in the sand and just ignore it and think that it will resolve itself in the normal course of business.
u25K, thanks
I had a longer response but one of the many bugs in this forum trashed it.
The bugs being symptomatic of BF spending hardly any money on the exchange. The Purple place seems to spend more.
Froggie why do you pontificate on subjects you know nothing about?
Here's an exercise for you, calculate the revenue from the exchange and start with how much BF makes from account balance interest.
I had a longer response but one of the many bugs in this forum trashed it.
The bugs being symptomatic of BF spending hardly any money on the exchange. The Purple place seems to spend more.
Froggie why do you pontificate on subjects you know nothing about?
Here's an exercise for you, calculate the revenue from the exchange and start with how much BF makes from account balance interest.
u25k,
For some reason I can't read your old posts.
Doesn't seem to be a problem for other posters.
For some reason I can't read your old posts.
Doesn't seem to be a problem for other posters.
u25k, I was looking forward to browsing thru your old posts.
I suspect I'm doing many of the same things as you, but its only been 18 months since I got my bank over AUD 1K. I pay the pc, in weeks when I can't churn it away, but am nowhere near 250K, but could easily get there in a few years as I refine and improve my trading strategies.
I trade soccer, cricket and Australian sports. Gave up tennis, cost start times too unpredictable and no in play for us Aussies.
I suspect I'm doing many of the same things as you, but its only been 18 months since I got my bank over AUD 1K. I pay the pc, in weeks when I can't churn it away, but am nowhere near 250K, but could easily get there in a few years as I refine and improve my trading strategies.
I trade soccer, cricket and Australian sports. Gave up tennis, cost start times too unpredictable and no in play for us Aussies.
Have you now unblocked me pxb ?
Couldn't bear to continue to miss out on all the good stuff I post up ?
Btw if your last question to me is relating to the hypothesis that BF's problem is more related to wasting its revenues on poorly conceived non exchange type sports betting operations, rather than about just having having revenues in sufficient size to run sports bettingoperations, then my response it could well be the case ?
But that is an entirely different point to that most commonly being expressed on here, that the PC is a pure short term money grap either to raise monies to be paid out in cash dividends to s/holders, or to boost the net earnings to increase the share price ( if the P/E multiple stays up where it is).
Couldn't bear to continue to miss out on all the good stuff I post up ?
Btw if your last question to me is relating to the hypothesis that BF's problem is more related to wasting its revenues on poorly conceived non exchange type sports betting operations, rather than about just having having revenues in sufficient size to run sports bettingoperations, then my response it could well be the case ?
But that is an entirely different point to that most commonly being expressed on here, that the PC is a pure short term money grap either to raise monies to be paid out in cash dividends to s/holders, or to boost the net earnings to increase the share price ( if the P/E multiple stays up where it is).
" then my response is it would well be the case."
Also pxb, you seem to claim on here that not only you are an extremely successful gambler but also you have had an extremely successful past career in internet start up entities.
And yet you simultaneously declare that it has taken you 18 mths to get your betting bank up to AUD 1K ( is that circa BP 650 ?).
I am somewhat puzzled by that apparent basic dichotomy.
Wuld you care to enlighten me( us) on this ?
And yet you simultaneously declare that it has taken you 18 mths to get your betting bank up to AUD 1K ( is that circa BP 650 ?).
I am somewhat puzzled by that apparent basic dichotomy.
Wuld you care to enlighten me( us) on this ?
I'm sure there is a good expnation but for the life of me I just can't seem to get at it ?
I can see and understand how BF cannot possibly make any money out of me and my type of punter, just on the standard commission structure.
I did a rough calculation and came up with an operating margin of close to 80% for the exchange.
They could run it profitably on interest from account balances alone.
I did a rough calculation and came up with an operating margin of close to 80% for the exchange.
They could run it profitably on interest from account balances alone.
+--explanation---"
Must start proof reading before posting up .
Must start proof reading before posting up .
Can't answer then I will just have to assume unfortunately.
Just like shooting fish in a barrel.
Not a sport I enjoy or take any satisfaction from.
Thank God there are many, many posters on here who give me back as good as I give out.
In many cases give me back more than I give out
I may be pompous, but I think pxb is a mite deluded.
But none of us are perfect.
Not a sport I enjoy or take any satisfaction from.
Thank God there are many, many posters on here who give me back as good as I give out.
In many cases give me back more than I give out
I may be pompous, but I think pxb is a mite deluded.
But none of us are perfect.
Actually I have to say I may have been doing pxb an injustice here and, if so, I apologize unreservedly . But presumably he won't know this as he has blocked me ( catch 22). So maybe someone can pass the message onto him.
I have just noticed in his post that he actually says that it is 18 months since he got his bank up to AUD 1K.
A considerable difference.
But he could have just pointed that out to me. Maybe I did actually hit some sort of nerve ?
I have just noticed in his post that he actually says that it is 18 months since he got his bank up to AUD 1K.
A considerable difference.
But he could have just pointed that out to me. Maybe I did actually hit some sort of nerve ?
Tbh I personally can't see the real benefits of this poster blocking facility.
Sure if someone is being constantly obscenely vile and obnoxious to you, it might be useful or even necessary.
But if someone is just being personally challenging ?
All sounds a bit wimpish to me .
Btw am I talking to anybody at all out there these days ?
Helloooo ! Anybody there ?
Not at this late hour probably, that's for sure.
No late night alcoholics and gamblerholics like me ?
Sure if someone is being constantly obscenely vile and obnoxious to you, it might be useful or even necessary.
But if someone is just being personally challenging ?
All sounds a bit wimpish to me .
Btw am I talking to anybody at all out there these days ?
Helloooo ! Anybody there ?
Not at this late hour probably, that's for sure.
No late night alcoholics and gamblerholics like me ?
How does it work actually ?
Can you see that someone has posted something but you can't actually what was posted ?
If so, how frustrating must that be ?
I'm too naturally curious to see all, good and bad, to be able to handle that type of scenario.
Can you see that someone has posted something but you can't actually what was posted ?
If so, how frustrating must that be ?
I'm too naturally curious to see all, good and bad, to be able to handle that type of scenario.
" --but you can't actually read what was posted ?"
u25k, if you think that betfair, operators of the worlds largest and most dynamic oracle database, don;t have the technical skills to look at the soap commands sent in from my excel spreadsheet, analyse them and reproduce what I am doing then you are as clueless as the staff you have reportedly encountered.
Betfair would be a long way from the world's largest Oracle database.
20 million transactions a day isn't that big in the world of big databases.
http://www.oracleisv.com/Portals/2/betfair_Database%20casestudy.pdf
UPS must be at least 1,000 times higher, although run on DB2.
Essentially anything botted BF could replace.
20 million transactions a day isn't that big in the world of big databases.
http://www.oracleisv.com/Portals/2/betfair_Database%20casestudy.pdf
UPS must be at least 1,000 times higher, although run on DB2.
Essentially anything botted BF could replace.
As far as seeding goes, what you see isn't always what you get. Ask any of the traders on the flies-round-sh1te markets. If betfair do seed, there's a dogs chance and none of betfair's shell and pea men being picked off by known sharks.
catfleppo
Date Joined: 22 Feb 07
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When: 14 Jul 11 08:21
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| Topic/replies: 78 | Blogger: catfleppo's blog
u25k, if you think that betfair, operators of the worlds largest and most dynamic oracle database, don;t have the technical skills to look at the soap commands sent in from my excel spreadsheet, analyse them and reproduce what I am doing then you are as clueless as the staff you have reportedly encountered.
Sure they might be able to reverse engineer some of what we are doing. The question is, is it even worth their effort?
If someone was doing exactly what you are doing, would you not know how to throw a spanner in the works? For instance, if someone replicated my strategies, I could drive the margin down to zero, so that they wouldn't benefit.
This would require effort on my part, as I bet manually. If I was running bots though, it doesn't seem like a difficult thing to do.
I guess that for most successful botters it's true that if they sold their bots, they could render them useless by developing new bots that stop the old ones from working properly.
It's not a case of Betfair replicate our strategies and then they make money forever. It's a dynamic environment. Some of the things I do are just ridiculously simple. I believe that the rare talent that creates winners is not executing winning strategies, it's finding them in the first place, and being able to replace them when others cotton on.
That's what I believe u25k is referring to.
Date Joined: 22 Feb 07
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When: 14 Jul 11 08:21
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Feb 07
| Topic/replies: 78 | Blogger: catfleppo's blog
u25k, if you think that betfair, operators of the worlds largest and most dynamic oracle database, don;t have the technical skills to look at the soap commands sent in from my excel spreadsheet, analyse them and reproduce what I am doing then you are as clueless as the staff you have reportedly encountered.
Sure they might be able to reverse engineer some of what we are doing. The question is, is it even worth their effort?
If someone was doing exactly what you are doing, would you not know how to throw a spanner in the works? For instance, if someone replicated my strategies, I could drive the margin down to zero, so that they wouldn't benefit.
This would require effort on my part, as I bet manually. If I was running bots though, it doesn't seem like a difficult thing to do.
I guess that for most successful botters it's true that if they sold their bots, they could render them useless by developing new bots that stop the old ones from working properly.
It's not a case of Betfair replicate our strategies and then they make money forever. It's a dynamic environment. Some of the things I do are just ridiculously simple. I believe that the rare talent that creates winners is not executing winning strategies, it's finding them in the first place, and being able to replace them when others cotton on.
That's what I believe u25k is referring to.
If someone was doing exactly what you are doing, would you not know how to throw a spanner in the works? For instance, if someone replicated my strategies, I could drive the margin down to zero, so that they wouldn't benefit.
So if Betfair replace me they will make less than what I am paying them in PC and commission.
So if Betfair replace me they will make less than what I am paying them in PC and commission.
Betfair could render all bots uncompetitive simply by tweaking the data and transaction charges. I'm not kidding myself that it's hard for them to replace me if they want. Admittedly it may be hard for them to simulate all the bots together but they could pick them off one at a time.
I'm by no means sure they will do this even in the long term but it is certainly feasible.
I'm by no means sure they will do this even in the long term but it is certainly feasible.
What happened with TheUltimateToryBoyForum charlatan? Did you say Sir Fred wasn't deserving of his pension or some equally heinous crime.
no. i made it clear that the emperor had no clothes. he didn't like that, one of his lickspittles obediently showed up and told me off for being rude, he threatened me and i pointed out that his threat was ridiculous. banned!
at one point early on they gave me a secret short term ban (for the same crime). i was told if i mentioned it to anyone much more serious sanctions would follow maybe they still will
i didn't expect to last long there after i realised who was in charge (took me quite a while to figure out it was the bloke who regularly showed up on the politics forum here demanding that people be banned and hated me because i defended their right to free speech: and while they were nutty i don't think they were as mad as him).
no doubt there are some advantages to living in a gated community but it's always one step away from a ballardian dystopia.....
anyway what happened to you? i didn't log in for quite a while and then suddenly you were gone. banned or left in disgust because they didn't all want to stone goodwin?
no. i made it clear that the emperor had no clothes. he didn't like that, one of his lickspittles obediently showed up and told me off for being rude, he threatened me and i pointed out that his threat was ridiculous. banned!
at one point early on they gave me a secret short term ban (for the same crime). i was told if i mentioned it to anyone much more serious sanctions would follow
maybe they still will i didn't expect to last long there after i realised who was in charge (took me quite a while to figure out it was the bloke who regularly showed up on the politics forum here demanding that people be banned and hated me because i defended their right to free speech: and while they were nutty i don't think they were as mad as him).
no doubt there are some advantages to living in a gated community but it's always one step away from a ballardian dystopia.....
anyway what happened to you? i didn't log in for quite a while and then suddenly you were gone. banned or left in disgust because they didn't all want to stone goodwin?
Banned for calling financial fraudster scumming parasites financial fraudster scumming parasites. Truth hurts.
One way to drive up the share price I suppose, only another 7 million or so left to buy back
RNS Number : 4413K
Betfair Group PLC
14 July 2011
Betfair Group plc (the "Company") announces that in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the Company's Annual General Meeting on 6th October 2010 it purchased 50,000 of its Ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each ("shares") on 14 July 2011 for cancellation.
The highest price paid per share was 702.5 pence per share.
The lowest price paid per share was 675.5 pence per share.
The average price paid per share was 685.62 pence per share.
To date 367,477 shares have been repurchased under this authority.
Following the above transaction the Company has 107,727,556 shares in issue. This number represents the total voting rights in the Company and may be used by shareholders as the denominator for the calculations by which they can determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change to their interest in, the Company under the Financial Services Authority's Disclosure and Transparency Rules.
RNS Number : 4413K
Betfair Group PLC
14 July 2011
Betfair Group plc (the "Company") announces that in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the Company's Annual General Meeting on 6th October 2010 it purchased 50,000 of its Ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each ("shares") on 14 July 2011 for cancellation.
The highest price paid per share was 702.5 pence per share.
The lowest price paid per share was 675.5 pence per share.
The average price paid per share was 685.62 pence per share.
To date 367,477 shares have been repurchased under this authority.
Following the above transaction the Company has 107,727,556 shares in issue. This number represents the total voting rights in the Company and may be used by shareholders as the denominator for the calculations by which they can determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change to their interest in, the Company under the Financial Services Authority's Disclosure and Transparency Rules.
The question is, is it even worth their effort?
I think what should concern bf shareholders is that there are indications they think it is.
I'd love to be a fly on the wall of bf towers. I know from personal experience that much of what sounds great in a management presentation can go seriously awry at the coalface.
Otherwise I agree with Theinvestor, much of what I do is ridiculously simple, the trick is in knowing what will work where.
Outside of cricket, perhaps the cleverest thing I do is knowing how to manually manage 50+ markets a day.
I think what should concern bf shareholders is that there are indications they think it is.
I'd love to be a fly on the wall of bf towers. I know from personal experience that much of what sounds great in a management presentation can go seriously awry at the coalface.
Otherwise I agree with Theinvestor, much of what I do is ridiculously simple, the trick is in knowing what will work where.
Outside of cricket, perhaps the cleverest thing I do is knowing how to manually manage 50+ markets a day.
A further 6% wiped off the value of the company this morning.
so after spending 2 million on shares to give the share price an artifical boost the price now tanks to a new low, so another 48 million of punters money to spent proping up a share price!!! How much do these guys get paid!!!
Betfair must buy back more share soon. Price is going very low. Is bad for image. Why lose so much today?
This was announced yesterday..about time tbh. changes brewing regarding taxing the point of consumption rather than the point of supply. Bad news for VC and SJ nad the like
All on and offshore operators selling services into the UK will in future have to obtain a licence from the Gambling Commission if they wish to continue offering online gaming to UK customers, John Penrose, Minister responsible for gambling policy and regulation, has announced.
Penrose (pictured right with Prime Minister David Cameron) said the revamped industry would be based on the point of consumption rather than point of supply, however no detail was given on the tax system this would involve, which jurisdictions would be affected or when this would come into force.
“It means anybody based anywhere in the world who wants to sell gambling services to any consumer based in the UK will, in future, have to have a Gambling Commission licence,” Penrose said.
....................................
Should have affected the price yesterday but since that was the day Betfair were buying loads of shares mebbe the fallout is hitting the market today.
All on and offshore operators selling services into the UK will in future have to obtain a licence from the Gambling Commission if they wish to continue offering online gaming to UK customers, John Penrose, Minister responsible for gambling policy and regulation, has announced.
Penrose (pictured right with Prime Minister David Cameron) said the revamped industry would be based on the point of consumption rather than point of supply, however no detail was given on the tax system this would involve, which jurisdictions would be affected or when this would come into force.
“It means anybody based anywhere in the world who wants to sell gambling services to any consumer based in the UK will, in future, have to have a Gambling Commission licence,” Penrose said.
....................................
Should have affected the price yesterday but since that was the day Betfair were buying loads of shares mebbe the fallout is hitting the market today.
Ummm
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=news&code=cotn:BET.L&action=article&articleid=8301378
I guess if you know another £48M or so is buying too it makes sense
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=news&code=cotn:BET.L&action=article&articleid=8301378
I guess if you know another £48M or so is buying too it makes sense
feak and frog
punters only need player v player
betting and what ever
the rake is great
5% for all
no need for sad talks
punters only need player v player
betting and what ever
the rake is great
5% for all
no need for sad talks
Very sad day for gambling when it's going to price the best out of the market.
Im also pretty sure the WTO will rule it illegal, it's remarkably similar to the American poker cases, which was also ruled illegal (and the USA ignored anyway)
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