General Betting
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I believe it really does pay in the long-term to lay off ‘dodgy’ looiing bets that are in danger of going pear-shaped, but after today I have cause to question this policy and would welcome your opinions.
Today I have initially placed 3 bets at a combined total outlay of £515.
All three eventually won and paid out (before comms) a combined total of £402.
The bets were:
England to score 450 1st inns runs v Sri Lanka, £320 @ 2.00.
(Eng went on to score 486 runs, their highest ever tally in Tests after being 22-3)
Montenegro v Bulgaria, lay Bulgaria for £50 @ 3.9.
Result: 1-1 (Bulgaria equalised in the 68th min).
Macedonia v Rep of Ireland – back under 2.5 goals, £50 @ 1.65.
Result: 0-2 (this was the score at half-time, when Macedonia had just missed a pen to make it 1-2, so I laid the bet off via the Correct Score market to recover full stakes after 60 mins)
So all I have to show for all three is the £15 profit made from laying the first cricket bet!
By being cautious (lacking bottle, some will say – and I understand that view), I have denied myself £402 today.
I’m trying to convince myself that in all three cases I took the sensible and right decision – as things stood at the time. Of course, none of us made a wrong move with the benefit of hindsight but it’s hard not to kick yourself afterwards.
I’m now feeling philosophical about it over a glass of chilled McGuigan Chardonnay, but just wanted to open it up to debate among sensible forumites who must have been there and done this many times.
I wonder if any of you – especially those who keep an accurate record of all your bets - can actually put your finger on what you would have won (or lost) had you not ‘greened up’ over a period of time, and how you view this procedure. Presumably, for everyone who says he/she has greened-up to live to fight another day and protected their bank, there are other more daring gamblers out there who can tell of how they ‘went with it’ and reaped rewards for their bravery?
Be good to hear from others on this…
Today I have initially placed 3 bets at a combined total outlay of £515.
All three eventually won and paid out (before comms) a combined total of £402.
The bets were:
England to score 450 1st inns runs v Sri Lanka, £320 @ 2.00.
(Eng went on to score 486 runs, their highest ever tally in Tests after being 22-3)
Montenegro v Bulgaria, lay Bulgaria for £50 @ 3.9.
Result: 1-1 (Bulgaria equalised in the 68th min).
Macedonia v Rep of Ireland – back under 2.5 goals, £50 @ 1.65.
Result: 0-2 (this was the score at half-time, when Macedonia had just missed a pen to make it 1-2, so I laid the bet off via the Correct Score market to recover full stakes after 60 mins)
So all I have to show for all three is the £15 profit made from laying the first cricket bet!
By being cautious (lacking bottle, some will say – and I understand that view), I have denied myself £402 today.
I’m trying to convince myself that in all three cases I took the sensible and right decision – as things stood at the time. Of course, none of us made a wrong move with the benefit of hindsight but it’s hard not to kick yourself afterwards.
I’m now feeling philosophical about it over a glass of chilled McGuigan Chardonnay, but just wanted to open it up to debate among sensible forumites who must have been there and done this many times.
I wonder if any of you – especially those who keep an accurate record of all your bets - can actually put your finger on what you would have won (or lost) had you not ‘greened up’ over a period of time, and how you view this procedure. Presumably, for everyone who says he/she has greened-up to live to fight another day and protected their bank, there are other more daring gamblers out there who can tell of how they ‘went with it’ and reaped rewards for their bravery?
Be good to hear from others on this…
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Replies: 103
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interesting point Plechy mate.
i used to bet on bet365 and built up a nice k with no greening up like on here and i inevitably blew it all one night. since discovering betfair and greening up i have built up a bank more gradually/safely. obv every greening up is giving away some of your winning profit but it's safer i guess |
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you made money. even if things went against you. you'll be back son.
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i'm am also about to enjoy a nice glass of RED
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It depends on the odds in and out. If they are both at " good value" you will come out ahead.
If not then you won't. |
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I think I'm gonna have a nice glass of rose. Sit in the middle that's me.
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good lad FAFH
for example i have just greened up federer/nadal. if nadal wins i will have passed away 70 quid. but federer would have cost me 100+ pre greening |
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As it happens, paulme, I backed Nadal at 2.06 with £100 pre-tournament, so I can now lay him and guarantee myself approx £40 on either Rafa or Fed.
I intend to let it ride on this occasion, especially after today's experience. |
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hmm same situation as me. just greened the fed half hour ago. he's playing really well, still want nadal to win. left more green on him
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Plechy the question you have to ask yourself if you hadnt back Nadal already is would you put £140 on him now at 1.45 or 1.44?
If the answer is now then the best thing to do is hedge the bet back. That example holds in all situations when the bets are all on Betfair and is one reason to have your initial bet here as opposed to having it at the same price with a bookmaker. |
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you can tell i'm tired by the simple spelling mistakes
 never bet when kanackered which is advice I followed myself today as I was felt just too tired to bet on the Britains Got Talent final today when I had been betting on the show all week. Previous post shows I was right. |
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The biggest error new traders make is to close out winning trades too soon and let losing trades run. FAFH hits it on on the head when he says it all depends on the price you can green out at. If it is value to lay off, then it makes sense, if it is not value, then you are giving away money. Simply put, you should green up only if it is value to do so.
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Don't make a habit of it. Trust your instincts when you've got an uneasy feeling while holding a winning position. Green out opportunities call out to you, not the other way around.
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Yes
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the real benefit from greening up is emotional not monetary
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I almost never green up.
As CLYDEBANK29 says you need to ignore the first bet and decide whether you would place the second bet if the first bet didn't exist. If the weight of the first bet is influencing your decision then I would suggest that your initial bets are probably too high vs your bank/risk appetite. Ask yourself this - with the 3 bets you mention above did you at any point consider putting even more on as the event progressed? If not then I would suggest that your initial stakes are too high as you were clearly looking to get out of the positions rather than looking for value which could result in you increasing your exposure. |
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Bet according to what's going on out on the pitch/court/track, never according to the colour of your screen.
(Unless, of course, you somehow stand to win a life-changing sum, when hedging becomes almost obligatory.) |
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I'd agree with curlywurly, your success as a gambler/trader depends more on how you handle the losing bets rather than the winning ones. If you can handle those losing bets/runs then realistically the only time to close out is when your consider the closing bet to be value.
But a lot really depends on how you're gambling, most traders will simply green up cos they haven't a clue about the value they hold and won't have put too much effort into the original bet, if you're picking what you consider to be value bets then the only time to consider jumping ship would be when you no longer consider the odds on offer to be value |
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Appreciate all comments, cheers.
Rightly or wrongly though, the size of your bank will inevitably effect your decision-making. I mean, if you have £30,000 or £3,000 behind you, you are obviously much more likely to let a bet of £300 ride, regardless of the evidence of your eyes or gut feelings, because the damage if you lose will be relatively minimal. So in that sense, the bit about treating a £3 bet the same as a £300 one, with the same care and consideration and thoughts of whether to green-up or not, doesn't ring true. That's human nature. Having a bigger pot tends to make you braver and more cavalier, which can be as rewarding as much as damaging provided you are careful in your selections in the first place. Also, you surely must be flexible in your thinking. For example, when I placed the £320 on England to score 450 1st inns runs, it was in the belief that two of 4 batsmen (Strauss, Cook, Trott and Bell) would score at least 100 each, and that the other two would contribute 50 apiece. I reckoned on the other 6 scoring the other 150 between them. But when Strauss (4 runs), Trott (2) and then Pietersen (2) left England 22-3, I clearly needed to re-evaluate the original bet and decide whether I could trust the other 7 to score 450 between them. We all now know that they did achieve it, but that doesn't mean my initial instincts were correct. My bet didn't go anything like according to plan. Yes, they did eventually go past 450, but did so with a lot of luck (Prior and Broad were playing Russian roulette) and an unlikely contribution of 40+ from the two fast bowlers. On another day, Prior could have lost his wicket five times in the opening two overs of yesterday's morning session alone. The £320 I stood to lose on this bet represented half of my bank, hence my cautionary reaction to the fall of so many cheap early wickets. Overstaking? Possibly. But my original hunch proved correct, albeit in a much different way to how any of us could have envisaged. At the end of the day, surely every bet we place is really a vision we have of how we EXPECT a certain event to unfold. And when that doesn't happen, we have to readjust our sights and thought processes. And I have now decided to green-up in the tennis final at RG so that I collect £40 regardless of whether Rafa or Fed win. Thank you for your interesting comments, and please keep 'em coming... In the Montenegro game, I decided to green up because Bulgaria had scored the 2nd goal in the 68th min, to make it 1-1, and (without the help of live pics) took the decision to assume that momentum was more likely to see them win the game than the home side. |
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When a reasonable sum becomes 0 due to e.g. an injury time equaliser or dodgey pen and red or horse falls and you could've layed off for relative pennies, well that's just not clever is it, regarldess of any quibbling about the relative value of the pennies to someone not involved at that point.
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the pennies given away greening up might eventually add up to an overall loss at the end of the year, when you might otherwise, by keeping the full green on the winners and accepting the last minute losses , have finished the year in profit.
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I'm tempted to start keeping an analysis of this greening-up process but, on yesterday's evidence, it might prove too depressing!
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whatever you do whether it be greening up or letting it run you should do the same all the time
if you have the mentality to see out the losses without losing the head then always let your bets run if your more of a safety man then always green up |
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in saying that i always let me bets run these days
just bet a horse at killbegan, was a close photo, bottled it and greened up so probably best not listening to me [smiley:crazy] |
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You might as well ask "Betting. Does it really pay long-term?"
If you do it right, yes. If not, no. |
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Lori - you make it all sound so simplistically easy without appearing to have given any serious thought to your reply. So what is your response to the actual origial question?
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Lori is right and the reason has already been given.
If you do it because you like a nice green screen and the appearance of safety that goes with it but you always take the price on offer then you're probably slowly but surely giving away a chunk of your profit. If you do it because it's poor value for whoever matches your bet then it's a good method of turning your funds over without having to risk more of your bank. |
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Surely you should know what yu doing before yu enter any market...are yu an outright layer, scalper, swing trader, whatever...its your method of operation, something that suits your temprement/character....over time it should become written in stone so yu don't have to think or question...certainly not over the issue of a handful of bets/trades.
Work it out by looking back at your own record at strategic points....it will mean far more than anybody elses experience. |
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If you really put half your betting bank on one bet then you are not going to be around long enough to work out whether greening up is good long-term
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I've posted enough times on Kelly Staking and value betting to know that it's not going to change any opinions.
Work out what you think the odds should be, work out if you're currently above a sensible Kelly number, work out how much you're actually staking by laying off (you can often take *slight* bad value because of things like commission or you can drift into overstaking because you no longer have a big enough edge to justify your current stake, so your expected growth can reduce) Stuff like that. Stuff that's been posted a lot before that you could google if you want. A search of Lori and Kelly within this forum on google would probably give you enough arguments to last you a few months. The original question is very time consuming as i'd have to re-create the conditions in the events in question, price them up and factor in your bet sizing and bankroll to give you an honest and correct answer. It's nothing to do with daring, dashing-do or bravery, it's all maths. The short answer is that given the markets on Betfair are reasonably efficient and given that greening-up bets are commission free, then if you want a rule of thumb, you're probably not hurting yourself by greening up. At the end of the day though, my first response was probably better. |
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Lori is right on both counts, but for me what counts is how good you are at handling variance, esp. at handling what seem undeserved losses and bad runs.
I am very bad and tend to green up just under the expected return to reduce any liability. The other two issues are the size of bank you can deploy (if you can deploy a lot of yr trading bank at odds wh/ make it worth yr while to bet, you shd green up to preserve and grow yr bank). The other issue is minimising your comm., which is best done by greening up, since we are charged by market rather than by transaction. Incidentally this feature is at the bottom of a lot of bf's current woes, as it seems to have reached market saturation in its home area. |
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If you are confident in your ability to price up an event, then about the one opportunity Betfair offers which is an improvement on the world pre-Betfair is that of being able to accommodate punters desperate to green up in a market with little money about.
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True. Hence the bots that enter markets just after kick off with large sums 10 or 15 ticks above market price.
Unappealing to everybody other than the price insensitive "trader" desperate to have a nice looking green screen. |
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I made a record of about 30 bets, these were mostly bets in long term markets.
I nearly always got matched on the winners but seemed more often than not to be left unmatched on those bets which were unsuccessfull. A not very scientific a sample I know but my results seemed to conclude pretty convincingly that greening up was a dubious aid to profitibility. |
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imo a half decent rule of thumb for greening up is:
don't cross the spread and you'll probably be all right in the long run. |
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Thanks to all for your responses.
So glad I greened up before the start of the French Open tennis today... Had all green £100 on Rafa and £0 on Fed! Oh well, it's a learning curve. |
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i also lost money by greening up on rafa but hey ho better than losing money
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*you know what i mean
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the real benefit from greening up is emotional not monetary
Correct, as is Lori. I should start a thread entitled, How the Premium Charge taught me to love losing. But the mods like to delete my stuff. |
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You can minimise the commission paid by greening up, but any commisssion saved is offset by a corresponding increase in your PC paid!
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