What is value, or a bad bet?

I know some people say take the value, because the price seems good, but if you lose where's the value.

Plenty of threads discussing this in detail but a quick explanation is this.

Regardless of it the bet loses or not if you are getting a value price where the team/player has more chance of winning than the odds suggest then you will be up long term and this is what this game is all about.

If I offered you 5/1 on a coin toss you would *should, i hope* take it as that is amazing value. Even if it loses the value was still there because if you keep betting on a coin toss at 5/1 you will be a very rich man in the end.

Depends when the "end" is

Very true

yes true but that will just confuse the op more. I was just trying to make a point about a losing bet not being a bad bet if it was at value odds.

in some ways a better example is a dice throw.

if I offer you 8/1 on throwing a six (normal, unbiased 6-sided dice), you should take it, even in the knowledge that you will probably lose and even in the knowledge that the offer is a strictly one off deal.

the interesting issue is staking.

Bookies lay winners and they seem to do quite well.  I am firmly of the "value" school of thought.

I will lay 1.01 about 1.03 shots all day long. If someone wants to back them "because they are going to win", I will happily risk 1%.

Fair Game,... i wouldnt touch any 1.03 Stuff with a bargepole .

I like to find value where it matters

thanks all for your insight

the concept of value is overrated imo... people say that long term it will prove beneficial but the thing is how long is long term.. and will the value stay value long term?

if I offer you 8/1 on throwing a six (normal, unbiased 6-sided dice), you should take it, even in the knowledge that you will probably lose and even in the knowledge that the offer is a strictly one off deal.

you can spend 20 throws of dice and still not get a 6.. in fact you will need sixes thrice in 20 attempts to make 1 unit profit.. and who knows the dice maybe tampered with..  with football betting for an average punter to consider all variables/news and then predict odds and win from it is difficult if not impossible.. so there maybe value but a casual punter will not find it..

Staking and money management is more important than finding the mythical value.. if you have discipline and a method, profit will follow.. else build all the spreadsheets you want to statistically model a football game but it is value only if it wins..


cheers!

Ocean.

How would you stake a dice throw?

I agree to an extent that value is overrated.Value is based on opinion, not probability. If your initial opinion is incorrect, you will lose.

Ocean - what?

Long term is as long as you make it. For me, long term is forever, I see no end to my betting.

What the hell does 'will the value stay value long term' even mean? Considering there are hundreds of events, thousands of wagers to be made every single day, how can you generalise value as a whole?

As long as there are opinions between both bookmaker and punter on any event, value will always exist wherever it may be.

Nobody can logically argue that value isn't important, in fact absolutely critical to success. The debate seems to arise in the uncertainties of knowing what is and is not value. Personally I don't believe tight spreads offer enough value to bother with most of the time, but others think they do.

Eg. I would make Higgins 1.2 to beat Lee today, but he's trading at 1.27 currently (1.28 with some bookmakers) which makes him a value back to me, but that's just my opinion (I would also want to watch the first frame to make sure he doesn't turn up with one arm in a sling i.e. suffering with a cold etc). There are other bets available where the value is completely obvious, not just my opinion, and they're the ones I like to concentrate on.

The dice example is perfect for demonstrating value.

If you walked up to a bookmakers' board (like the races) and he was offering odds on the throw of one dice and they were as follows.

1 - 6/1
2 - 5/1
3 - 5/1
4 - 6/1
5 - 6/1
6 - 8/1


If you were satisfied it was legitimate, where would you place your money?

As Trevh has correctly pointed out, "value" is critical to long term success.

Just yesterday I was trying to explain basic strategy Black Jack to a guy who just could'nt understand it.  He kept saying, "but what if it is a ten" etc etc, in the end I gave up.

Deffo on 2 coz that is my lucky number and I know that will be good.  I don't want 6 because what happens if it is a 2.

I don't always agree with the above poster, but I do this
time, the complete post.

Agreed Ken

Being able to accurately determine probabilities of respective outcomes is basically the be all and end all of successful gambling

Has just become one of my favourite quotations.

oddly, I don't agree with that even though I like it. there are situations where you can't accurately determine the probability of an outcome, but you can accurately determine that it's in a range that doesn't include the currently offered price.

but you can accurately determine that it's in a range that doesn't include the currently offered price.

Is that not the same thing ?

I am pondering.  I think this is the "it is easy to spot a wrong price but difficult to spot a right price" theory.

confused.com lol

confused.com lol

doubly so.  what perplexes you so much Barry?

it's not really the same thing, because it doesn't involve accurately judging a probability.

for instance, say you set up a spread on the weight of an average adult blue whale. I have virtually no idea what that is - certainly no idea that could be described as an accurate judgment. But, if you set the spread at 200-210 kilos, I can still pile in  because I can accurately judge my own confidence that it's higher than that.

(last time it was an elephant - but that's inflation for you)

I am warming to the blue whale analogy.  I will see how many times I can use blue whales in my musings today.  Elephants are passé.

Value is something that you hope to have, can't know for certain whether you've got it or not, but convince yourself that you do have it. After the event, a long time after, you still cannot tell whether you had it on any single occasion but you are damn certain whether you had it or not on average over a large number of occasions.

In short, like love, you know it exists but are just not certain when you have it and only in hindsight do you know whether you did or not.

I agree with your first paragraph Sandown, but not your second. Don't think it's anything like love but it seems that you do like your analogies so since i don't like yours I may as well offer one up myself.

Value is like beauty. It is in the eye of the beholder and is more than likely to disappear with time.

I'm sure there are plenty more out there.

Fair enough UA. How about a rainbow? You can describe it quite easily, see it but only from a distance, and not from right up close; you can't  measure it or weigh it but you know it exists although  a blind person might never believe you. Unfortunately, it doesn't last very long. And like value, there's a pot of gold there if you could ever find the end of it.

Ooh i like it, much better than your love one.

ocean0201
When: 20 Apr 11 00:26

Staking and money management is more important than finding the mythical value.. if you have discipline and a method, profit will follow.. else build all the spreadsheets you want to statistically model a football game but it is value only if it wins..

Staking and money management mean absolutely nothing without value.

There are only two possible ways to make a profit in gambling:

1) value/edge
2) luck

Staking and money management are what you use to take optimal advantage of value opportunities. If you don't have an edge (value), no staking or money management or 'discipline' will help you make money. All that is only useful if you actually have an edge to begin with.

Staking and money management is more important than finding the mythical value..

Please explain why.