you cannot and will not make a profit on football betting in the long run..

There was a 1 at the end of that second figure.

what's the last digit in pi?

same question, essentially.

otherwise you're effectively agreeing that x is closer to z than y, but not agreeing that z exists.

Yes that is true  Viva. Be interesting to know how Sandown actually chooses his bets . Does he not consider the prices at all?



The nearer you are to guessing when a goal goes in, then the closer you get to the "right" odds to lay. The "correct" lay price is say 8 seconds before you click the computer to lay......for Spanish match....The "wrong" price" is BACKING the CS existing 8 seconds before goal goes in......

You can tell you have been close to the "right" odds to lay IF THE GOAL COMES QUICKLY.

I don't get that at all DFC . Wether a goal is scored shortly after you have backed or layed the correct score tells you nothing about wether the price was correct .

T - you say "I don't get that at all DFC . Wether a goal is scored shortly after you have backed or layed the correct score tells you nothing about wether the price was correct ."
=================================================================

Say for example it is 0-0 with 5 mins to go in a match and you believe the away team odds are "value" AT THAT TIME TO BACK, as you consider that team can steal the game after all the efforts of home team are fading.....so you back 0-1 in 85h min and lay 0-0.......

In 87th min it becomes 0-1..........so you have layed 0-0 at "right" time at odds nearest lowest point( must be the "right" odds to lay at ) .....and BACKED 0-1 at odds far higher than when it goes to 0-1....with little time left....so how better or "right" are such odds on 0-1 grabbed just before goal goes in?

Trust you appreciate that TIMING of bets is closely linked to taking odds when you believe they are "value"....

Whoever BACKED 0-0 just before goal went in got it "wrong" re TIMING.....whereas the layer layed at did so at the "right" odds as his guess on a goal coming "soon" transpired....

Depends what the odds were as to wether it was value at that time.

If 0-0 was 2.0 that late in the game it would be terrible value to lay it (in a typical match) wether it finished 0-1 or not.

Take the REAL MADRID game ....where odds for 0-0 AT THE START were "value2 , as likely a TIGHT game 1st half....I backed it with small bet.

As i now believe the game will come to life as RM must go for win .....then now I have LAYED 0-0 profit off ...and backed 0-1 and 1-0 ......( in case i was "wrong" re it being 0-0 at HT ...I backed 2-0 and 9-2 at start of match...as can see those scores being hit later in match .....and covered with a bet on OVER 2.5 gs at start......

I now anticipate a goal or 2 being scored .......and laying 0-0 NOW is my time to do so.......if stays 0-0 til end ...I lose

The 0-0 in MAINZ game yesterday was 1.66 when i layed it in 85th min.....and goal scored by home team ( in this instance ) in 87th min....that is close enough for me to be "value" .....but fact a goal came from them late in match ...is what i anticipated....and I expected the home team to score late...

not 9-2 backed at start ...but 0-2...whooooppppppssssssssssssssssss

wether an individual bet wins or not does not tell you it was value

If i'd backed  Man City before the game today at Odds On it would have been an awful value bet regardless of it winning.

It is the TIMING of bet that is important to catching "value"........laying late in a match where you believe the goal will come late is catching the "right" odds to lay at.....and can only be proven to be "value" when the goal comes......IMO..... otherwise too academic if you have the "value" and don't win...
==========================================================

My decision to LAY 0-0 at HT in REAL MADRID game was near the "right time" ....as a goal came within 6/7 mins......, therefore the odds I layed at were better than laying at start of match etc etc

Unfortunately the sending off kinda ruins position a bit ...though still expect another goal and have layed profit off a bit on 0-1......

layed 0-1 AGAIN as odds are better for laying ...and goal hopefully comes in next few mins.......

If a team goes 1-0 up the chances of winning obviously go up. If no real probability exists, how can this be?
If a team is leading 4-0 in the 89the minute the chances of winning are obviously huge. If no real probability exists, how can this be?

The only way to win is betting at prices which are wrong. If anyone
disagrees with that, perhaps they would like bet without knowing the
prices they are betting at. I would defy anyone to win without knowing
those prices.

Majority of punters have the one bet either pre-off or in-play as they see
'perceived value' but they quickly lose 'true value' as the price heads
north and don't go in again averaging.
Building models around averaging and retaining value in your trading is
the only way to maximise profits.
Obviously its not for the faint-hearted given the randomness of football
and you need to understand your markets or you will quickly go bust.

Hello there DFCIronman.  You mentioned "It is the TIMING of bet that is important to catching "value"........laying late in a match where you believe the goal will come late is catching the "right" odds to lay at.....and can only be proven to be "value" when the goal comes......IMO..... otherwise too academic if you have the "value" and don't win..."

Isn't this just called gambling. Betting on something that you think will happen. Not sure how the value comes into it since all you are trying to do is predict what will happen in the future. If the draw price is 1.3 with 2 minutes left then surely it's just because over a large set of data when there is 2 minutes left the draw probability is such that the price should be 1.3. If i feel that there is going to be a goal in the very last minute that doesn't suddenly become value does it. I'm just having a bet on what i feel will happen at a price that represents the likelihood of it happening at that stage in the game.

If i feel that a game is going to finish 0-0 then is it a value bet to just take the odds on offer just before kick-off? What if the odds are 7.6 pre kick-off is that value because i know they are just going to come in as the game progresses.

Surely it's the prices not what you think will happen that are important. I must be getting it wrong because you also seem to be saying if you don't win then it's not value bet and if you do win then it is a value bet.

Apologies for not capitalising you full name at the beginning of my post DFCIRONMAN.

U.A. - I usually check some stats on a match and arrive at a view on how the game is likely to go...."Something" might stand out to me as a likely scenario, so initially i usually place bets BEFORE match starts.

If i believe that a TIGHT game is likely , then backing 0-0 at start of match is what I view as "value". I might consider also that one team WILL play a game first half just to frustrate their opponents and make them run around in sun....... Their game plan being to go for win in last 15 minutes say.....so a 0-0 back at start is useful bet for me in such a game.

As game progresses, i might see something that I believe WILL happen later in match.......eg one team dominating a match 1st a half and in early stages of 2nd half against opponents capable of coming to life later in match as their opponents tire etc..... For example the NAPOLI game yesterday was a game where most punters watching match might believe the home team was going to win.........but I saw their was a strong possibility their opponents would score on break etc etc ...and that is what happened.

So I strongly disagree with you saying - "Surely it's the prices not what you think will happen that are important. I must be getting it wrong because you also seem to be saying if you don't win then it's not value bet and if you do win then it is a value bet."

It is my view on a game that is IMPORTANT...both before the match and IP.  However, it is whether you are "right" often enough that counts for me as to whether I make a profit or not. The odds are in my favour IF I MAKE RIGHT DECISIONS BEFORE GAME AND DURING IT.

Of course you can lose and still consider yourself to have "value" in bet......but the bottom line is have you made a profit from your decisions or not. Yesterday I had got many decisions "right" on how games might go......and was about £119 up.....then I got it "wrong" re reading of RIVER PLATE game, as believed a goal would come....so lost about £70 on that 1 match ( it was only match I lost on yesterday). Won about £16 on last game ....so finished ahead. Had a goal come in RIVER PLATE game....then good profit would have been made......so I had the "value" .....and lost! Reason i was in PROFIT of about £68 yesterday though was me getting it "right" often enough in 11 out of 12 matches to enable a profit to be made.Make the "right" decisions .....at the right TIME often enough and a profit can be made.

You might say I won because the odds I backed were "value".....but I would say that it is getting view "right" often enough on how a game goes that is the main thing....and the "value" then follows by winning and making profit.

RACING about to start ....so GL with bets....

Nobody knows what will happen, so 'thinking' a goal is coming
is nonsense. What isn't nonsense is the prices.

For example the NAPOLI game yesterday was a game where most punters watching match might believe the home team was going to win.........but I saw their was a strong possibility their opponents would score on break etc etc ...and that is what happened.

I thought you couldn't make it up, but then I realised you can !!

Im coming up to one year on here and im over 5000 uk in profit . 75% of that is football. But unlike horses where price is everything, i wouldn't know where to begin in pricing up a football match. So i must be a very good judge  or i subconsciously find value .

But having a view pre off Can have a big negative impact when playing IP. For example man utd Will stuff City last saturday. IF i was playing IP without any  feelings about the game, i would have traded for how i SAw the game (stonewall unders)

Aftertimimg of course, but watching a game blind, even having to check on wikipedia to find out which team is playing in red on some mexicansk game for example. You act As you see the game , not what you expect to happen . Im rambling but i hope you get what im saying. Most of my profits are on obscure matches, where the people ARe not interested in.

Hello there DFCIRONMAN.

I suppose when i said "Surely it's the prices not what you think will happen that are important." I meant with regards to being profitable long-term rather than the mechanics of deciding if you want to have a bet or not.

You mentioned "Reason i was in PROFIT of about £68 yesterday though was me getting it "right" often enough in 11 out of 12 matches to enable a profit to be made." I personally would disagree with you here and say that is meaningless without taking the prices into consideration as i could quite easily get 11 out of 12 1.05 shots correct and make a loss. Likewise i could just get 1 out of 12 bets correct and end up in profit for the day.

I cetainly am not making any argument as to that fact that you are not or cannot be profitable with you approach as i would probably be wrong, i just think that you probably don't give yourself enough credit for being able to finding value bets based on your own instinct and without any in-depth statistical analysis. I'm sure it is a very rare and useful skill to have. It is your ability to find value bets that makes you profitable, you just haven't realised it.

That's just my opinion anyway for what it's worth.

I stand by what I posted above -

"It is my view on a game that is IMPORTANT...both before the match and IP.  However, it is whether you are "right" often enough that counts for me as to whether I make a profit or not. The odds are in my favour IF I MAKE RIGHT DECISIONS BEFORE GAME AND DURING IT."

===========================================================

As for NAPOLI game......the stats indicated BEFORE match that UDINESE were on a good run .......and NAPOLI had been playing well , but they had been involved in European ties etc ....and the game was a big game for BOTH teams.

So watching match NAPOLI had dominated play ....fact....created chances ...and missed em ...including penalty......It was just VERY VERY likely that away team would be fresher late in match and try to win then.....which is what happened.

OK ...some people like K believe that anticipating a goal from a team is "nonsense"......and cannot be done ....or is worth attempting....they are blinkered by "prices"......K's post below typifies such belief

kenilworth Joined: 04 Nov 05
Replies: 5064 18 Apr 11 15:33 
Nobody knows what will happen, so 'thinking' a goal is coming
is nonsense. What isn't nonsense is the prices.


To state  "What isn't nonsense is the prices" is just a bland meaningless statement ....and no good to man nor beast!

IQMC - As you say ....having a view on how a game might go "CAN" effect bets IP in a "negative" way........ However, it can also be a very POSITIVE way of effecting bets IP .....as the initial view can be "correct", based on stats plus whatever you have "seen" on a game reading between lines.....

You quoted MAN UTD v MAN CITY as a game where you believed MU would "stuff" MC......My view was the opposite.......I layed MAN UTD, but covered the lay with backs in HT/FT market. Watching game my view was that a goal would come ......so I layed 0-0....then layed again ( having initially had a small bet on 0-0 at START, as viewed match as a TIGHT game ...FA CUP etc ...and between 2 teams with capability to win match.

As I stated above, many punters would believe NAPOLI were going to win against UDINESE, both before game and also watching it. I suspect many LOST because they never took all the factors into account on WATCHING match, as they ignored the STATS for away team....and did not take into account NAPOLI having had a very tough season. NAPOLI have probably peaked ....and likely to have a few set backs in run in...IMO.


MAN CITY would view the game as their big chance to put one over on MU ....and MU had the mid-week game v CHELSEA taking up some valuable energy...which IMO would take its toll , and most likely in 2nd half.

MC have the Italian coach ...so their mentality is absorb 1st half attacks ...then against a team like MU who just go forward most games, and were likely to do so 1st half especially.....the 2nd half was IMO when MC would try to win match. SCHOLES sending off obviously had major effect on outcome.....though I was happy laying MU the way I did, BEFORE game started.

Many ways to skin that cat ......so having an opinion BEFORE a game is a PLUS for me........and generally it is also a benefit for me to remember what that opinion is DURING WATCHING a match, as it is so easy to get it WRONG WATCHING a match, as 1 team dominating possession and chances 1 half can mislead you to making bets that lose IF YOU IGNORE STATS AND ALSO THE NATURE OF HOW GAMES CAN QUICKLY TURN AROUND DUE TO A TEAM RUNNING OUT OF ENERGY LATE IN GAME.

WD on winning your way though ...GL with bets.

DF, why don't you tell us what you are doing pre match rather than
3 days later ?

kenilworth - You very rarely expound opinions on matches PRE-MATCH.......compared to me....FACT!

I responded to IQMC post re his example of how having an opinion PRIOR to a game for him CAN lead to him making losing bets, compared to WATCHING a match then coming to an opinion....He/she used MAN UTD v MAN CITY as his example....and I used same game to demonstrate that, FOR ME, having that opinion BEFORE a game is the most important part FOR ME to making bets both BEFORE a game and DURING IT!

This was just an point being made re the relevance of OPINION being important for me.......rather than you making spurious bland points re "prices" being "right" and "wrong" and generally going against the MARKET.

Why don't you put up a thread on here and expound views on games PRIOR to them ? Though I must admit I suspect there will be little that I would sift out of YOUR OPINION, as I have no respect for your pompous posts.....with little substance to them !

Glad to see you two still getting along..

IF you have a strong opinion it is hard to get away from .

Being completely neutral is the Best way to Trade IP imo

Looks like after 5 Pages of interesting Discussion this once enjoyable Thread goes now down to the buisiness End of Forum Rampage........... finaly

I find football very hard to make consistent profit it on in sports betting. I have faired better trading golf and tennis even though I don't know as much about them sports as I do football.

DF, I'm not showing someone how to win with result in front
of me, you are !!
What is your plan of attack in this evening's match at
Newcastle ? A golden opportunity to enlighten us. I'm
holding my breath.

I've indicated that FOR ONCE ...YOU express YOUR opinion on game on another thread.........................

You tell us first ...then I will expound mine! Since the idea is YOURS ....you go FIRST! Will be "interesting" to see whether you have any originality or insight in your view...................

My bets are already on.....................

We don't know how to do it. Won't you tell us ?

As usual ...you DON@T EXPRESS an opinion .....what is new !

OK ..I will ....on the choice of bet and why

More "pressure" on MU to win than NEWCASTLE.....and N are likely to make it difficult for MU .....and may well take lead in 1st half....

As N defence leaks goals , MU are likely to up a gear and should be too good for NEWCASTLE eventually.

I have layed DRAW/DRAW as my bet.....as I expect a win in match. MGOFS is 1-3.

Hopefully 1 of them scores and holds on to a lead at HT.....that is what I believe will happen.......Ideally for me, N scoring 1st in 1st half would be fine.......or MU ....either way, with 1 of them leading at HT.....I should make a profit on match.

Fixtures 19 April / Newcastle v Man Utd / Half Time/Full Time       Draw/Draw      Lay          19-Apr-11
19:04           7.2     12.00         7.2     19-Apr-11 19:04


GL with bets.

Good luck with yours.

What is your bet K?

I'm not prepared to say because I will get slaughtered by
a certain taxi driver if I lose. Having said that, I won't be
disclosing it win or lose after the event. I sincerely hope
for your sake a goal is scored, but it's not squeeky bum time
yet.

Some chances at both ends ....but careless finishing results in no goals.

N forwards are so SLOW THINKING......and their best chance to score is likely to be from set-piece.....

MU still have the gear to go for win 2nd half ......but LovenC is capable of scoring if they give him some space on break.....but still likely MU will win eventually.

Pretty mediocre fare from both.....................Hopefully game opens up more 2nd half as MU push for winner. 1-3 unlikely .....but might well be a flurry of goals yet.

The lay on DRAW/DRAW may well be threatened ( it already is ) IF NEWCASTLE score 1st........I may well cover 1-1 a bit if goal has not come in first 20 mins....but I still expect goals yet, especially from MU now.

Fixtures 19 April / Newcastle v Man Utd / Correct Score    
    1 - 1     Back         19-Apr-11
21:03           14     6.00         14     19-Apr-11 21:08

Just feel necessary to cover 1-1 at this point in game.....

A goal WILL come ...but a wee bit dangerous stage in game as NEWCASTLE should have energy left in tank ...as MU done most of work SO FAR!

MU are keeping too many players back in defence.......they appear to be making sure they don't lose rather than going all out for win.

Probably they will do so last 5 mins ....

Bad luck. It's not crime to lose on a match.

First loss today for me ...."happy" with bets ....just MU never really went for win  until too late.............IMO.

Will be taking on some more games later tonight .............

Football: -£13.50 LOSS SO FAR

Football     Showing 1 - 18 of 18 markets
Market     Start time     Settled date     Profit/loss (£)
Football / Newcastle v Man Utd : Half Time/Full Time     19-Apr-11 19:45     19-Apr-11 21:44     -74.40
Football / Dundee Utd v Rangers : Half Time/Full Time     19-Apr-11 19:45     19-Apr-11 21:41     32.98
Football / Newcastle v Man Utd : Correct Score     19-Apr-11 19:45     19-Apr-11 21:41     -6.00
Football / Roma v Inter : Half Time/Full Time     19-Apr-11 19:45     19-Apr-11 21:39     11.56
Football / Dundee Utd v Rangers : Match Odds     19-Apr-11 19:45     19-Apr-11 21:37     -24.36
Football / Dundee Utd v Rangers : Correct Score     19-Apr-11 19:45     19-Apr-11 21:28     -2.00
Football / Roma v Inter : Half Time     19-Apr-11 19:45     19-Apr-11 20:34     -2.00
Football / Emirates Club v Al-Shabab (KSA) : Correct Score     19-Apr-11 16:30     19-Apr-11 18:32     -8.00
Football / Zobahan v Al Rayyan : Half Time/Full Time     19-Apr-11 16:30     19-Apr-11 18:25     5.78
Football / Al Ain v Hangzhou Greentown : Half Time/Full Time     19-Apr-11 16:30     19-Apr-11 18:25     11.56
Football / Al Ain v Hangzhou Greentown : Correct Score     19-Apr-11 16:30     19-Apr-11 18:24     0.00
Football / Emirates Club v Al-Shabab (KSA) : Over/Under 2.5 goals     19-Apr-11 16:30     19-Apr-11 17:15     15.08
Football / Pakhtakor v Esteghlal : Half Time/Full Time     19-Apr-11 14:00     19-Apr-11 15:52     11.56
Football / Pakhtakor v Esteghlal : Correct Score     19-Apr-11 14:00     19-Apr-11 15:51     0.00
Football / Banfield v Arsenal FC : Half Time/Full Time     19-Apr-11 00:10     19-Apr-11 02:07     -14.00
Football / Banfield v Arsenal FC : Correct Score     19-Apr-11 00:10     19-Apr-11 02:07     0.00
Football / Banfield v Arsenal FC : Match Odds     19-Apr-11 00:10     19-Apr-11 02:06     32.74
Football / Banfield v Arsenal FC : Half Time     19-Apr-11 00:10     19-Apr-11 01:01     -4.00
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.



Could be worse !!!!

May still finish a ahead later on .....

Better luck with bets than meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Unlucky DFC with bet, but you have just proved that having a strong opinion pre-match can have a negative impact when trading IP because you cannot get away from that thought.

Even though you correctly called IP that United were happy with a draw and not going 100% out for goals, you did not trade as you saw the game. Instead you traded in the hope that your pre-match prediction would come true and you would be proved right.

You could say that Ken and your ego cost you some money tonight. Sometimes its not the other punters or commission on here you have to beat, it's yourself.

Good luck with future thoughts

As I don't try to "TRADE" ( well I don't consider I set out to do that), then with above game I was "happy" with my call, even though it lost.

It was with about 25 mins left that I noted that MU were keeping about 5/6 players back or in mid-field, and did not want to throw players forward til last 5/10 mins....

However, the referee just was chicken on penalty possibilities ( probably 3 could have been given)......so no goals came when at least 2 were clear penalties "normally"......

Plenty half-chances ....few clear cut chances created ( MU had 2)....so without all out commitment from MU ......a draw was "fair" result.

Ken never "cost" me anything ......my choice to bet on match.....lost the bet....but my "ego" never came into decision to do bet. It was just my view on game at start that led to bet ( bet was placed BEFORE Ken asked for view to be posted ....so nothing to do with "ego" really!)


Not sure where you saw me "trading" IQMC????

Bets placed on 2 more games for me .....may end up in profit yet on day re FOOTBALL !
==============================================

Fixtures 19 April / Jorge Wilstermann v Jaguares / Correct Score       2 - 2      Back              19-Apr-11
22:28           17.5     3.00         17.5     19-Apr-11 22:28    
    Fixtures 19 April / Jorge Wilstermann v Jaguares / Match Odds     The Draw     Lay         19-Apr-11
22:27           3.7     24.00         3.7     19-Apr-11 22:27    
    Fixtures 19 April / Jorge Wilstermann v Jaguares / Half Time/Full Time     Draw/Draw     Lay          19-Apr-11
21:57           6     3.68         6     19-Apr-11 21:58


Away team need to win.....and very likely to do so, as they are good enough to win. MGOFS 1-3.
=============================================================================   
    Fixtures 19 April / Internacional v Emelec / Correct Score     1 - 1     Back          19-Apr-11
21:56           11.5     6.00         11.5     19-Apr-11 21:56    
    Fixtures 19 April / Internacional v Emelec / Match Odds     The Draw     Lay         19-Apr-11
21:56           5.7     18.00         5.7     19-Apr-11 21:56

INT need to win ...probably to guarantee qualification for next stage of COPA L ( I think).....so I believe they will win 1-0. It may well be a TIGHT game 1st half.......as EMELEC must win .....so INT likely to watch what is happening in other game 1st half......and if necessary go for win 2nd.

However, ...they really should go for early lead to control match ....and hopefully their coach does this. MGOFS is 1-0.



Gl with bets.

A DRAW is OK for INT to qualify though .......but would be dangerous to try to play for that ....better they go for early goal lead etc

With the other game having away team 0-1 up at HT ....EMELEC must go for a win. this should open game up a bit and INT should be good enough to create chances for a goal. So LAYING 0-0 a bit and backing 1-1 again for a bit more and 2-2 as some cover for the initial lay on DRAW/DRAW -

Fixtures 19 April / Internacional v Emelec / Correct Score     
    0 - 0     Lay         20-Apr-11
01:13           4.6     4.00         4.6     20-Apr-11 01:13    
   
Fixtures 19 April / Internacional v Emelec / Correct Score    
    2 - 2     Back         20-Apr-11
01:12           85     2.00         85     20-Apr-11 01:13    
   
Fixtures 19 April / Internacional v Emelec / Correct Score    
    1 - 1     Back         20-Apr-11
01:11           9.8     3.00         9.8     20-Apr-11 01:12

MGOFS is still 1-0.

2-1 in other game due to red card away team ....so reduced liability on DRAW lay and should be ok in this one now for profit ...covered 3-3 as well.....so with 2-2 covered at start position is now ok ...LUCKILY in this one ...RED CARD makes it more difficult for bets winning!

IQMC, a bit unfair to blame me for DFC laying a winner, i only asked
him to tell us his bet(s) before the event for obvious reasons. He took
the 'easy' route, posting a long odds on lay and it came unstuck. That
happens. Not sure whether he would have told us if waiting till after
the event. Human nature I suppose.

"Easy" K ?????????

No bet is "easy" .......IMO.

You picked the match ...I already had my bet on....so what am I to do ? I never made decision on bet by taking your post into account ...as never saw your post until AFTER i had put bet on!

You imply I took your request for me to post on this match to then make an "easy" bet......This was not the case due to above FACTS.

You never posted any view on the match YOU selected........so really the word "easy" applies to route you chose to take..................

Yes - you are correct that IQMC had basically got mixed up, both re me "TRADING" during match on MU game and you being partly to blame ...which you were not....for me opting for bet......OK ....the time I placed bet was 4 mins after you requested I post a view on game .....but , as stated above, I never saw your post til after all my bets on 3 matches had been placed ( DUNDEE UTD and ROMA games too etc ).....

It was the only game I lost on yesterday .....so still wriggled to profit on day ...eventually.

Anyway ...racing about to start ...GL with bets K .......

I was just making a point not really blaming anyone. Trying to make us Think more about how we come to decisions.

Dfc anytime you fire in more than one bet in a market, cover bet , greening up, etc.... its All trading in my eyes

Fair enough IQMC .....I do use "cover" bets often ......but I view them as "hedge" bets that may be used as game progresses to give me options IP.

When I lay DRAW/DRAW ......i usually wait til  HT before deciding on whether to place other bets....or i just let initial lay bet stand.

As long as you are making profit ....Gl with bets.

SLUMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

It was the only game I lost on yesterday .....so still wriggled to profit on day ...eventually.

Back to the old after timing ! You put one up before the
event, you lost. Played 1, lost 1 end of.

How thick are you K?????

I posted my bets on 2 matches after the MU game on here.....and indicated why i was betting on BOTH games. HOW THE FECK IS THIS AFTER-TIMING?

You really are a pompous eeejjjiiiittttt....but you are good at being that

Gl with your imaginary bets ....

DFC, you make me laugh, that's for sure. I've layed Arsenal
at 2.46 this evening, what have you done ?

Just 1 or 2 bets



    IN PLAY AT 1-2

Fixtures 20 April / Tottenham v Arsenal / Match Odds    
    The Draw     Back         20-Apr-11
20:04           4.6     3.00         4.6     20-Apr-11 20:04    
==========================================================================
       
   
Fixtures 20 April / Tottenham v Arsenal / Match Odds    
    The Draw     Lay         20-Apr-11
18:29           3.5     9.00         3.5     20-Apr-11 18:29    
   
Fixtures 20 April / Tottenham v Arsenal / Match Odds    
    Arsenal     Lay         20-Apr-11
18:29           2.5     33.00         2.5     20-Apr-11 18:29    
   
Fixtures 20 April / Tottenham v Arsenal / Correct Score    
    0 - 0     Back         20-Apr-11
18:28           13.5     2.00         13.5     20-Apr-11 18:28    
    Fixtures 20 April / Tottenham v Arsenal / Half Time/Full Time     Tottenham/Arsenal     Back         20-Apr-11
18:28           28     2.00         28     20-Apr-11 18:28    
    Fixtures 20 April / Tottenham v Arsenal / Half Time/Full Time     Draw/Arsenal     Back         20-Apr-11
18:28           6.6     3.00         6.8     20-Apr-11 18:28    
    Fixtures 20 April / Tottenham v Arsenal / Half Time/Full Time     Arsenal/Arsenal     Back         20-Apr-11
18:28           4.4     12.00         4.4     20-Apr-11 18:28
=================================================================


I have some cover on the lay on ARSENAL ........

Still consider SPURS likely not to lose.

GL with bet

Another small back on SPURS ......as 2nd half ARSENAL legs should "fall off"!


   
Fixtures 20 April / Tottenham v Arsenal / Match Odds    
    Tottenham     Back          20-Apr-11
20:20           9.8     2.00         9.8     20-Apr-11 20:20

1-3 .......mind you they appear to have more than 2 legs each !!!!!

LAY ARSENAL at 1-3 .....small cost ...

   
Fixtures 20 April / Tottenham v Arsenal / Match Odds    
    Arsenal     Lay         20-Apr-11
20:28           1.13     36.00         1.13     20-Apr-11 20:28

2-3

Fixtures 20 April / Tottenham v Arsenal / Correct Score     
    2 - 3     Lay         20-Apr-11
20:31           6     12.00         6     20-Apr-11 20:32

Adjusting position ...a goal for either now at 3-3 will give greater profit


Fixtures 20 April / Tottenham v Arsenal / Match Odds     
    Arsenal     Back         20-Apr-11
21:17           3.5     4.00         3.5     20-Apr-11 21:18    
   
Fixtures 20 April / Tottenham v Arsenal / Match Odds    
    Arsenal     Back     20-Apr-11
21:17           3.4     8.00         3.5     20-Apr-11 21:17    
   
Fixtures 20 April / Tottenham v Arsenal / Match Odds    
    Arsenal     Back         20-Apr-11
21:17           3.3     7.00         3.5     20-Apr-11 21:17

After all your feedback and some interesting points, I still maintain that you should all give up on footy, you will turn into addicts and end up broke.. thats guaranteed.[:(]

okay bert

So how come Ian Erskine's Fts service makes decent profits, im looking to getting this anyone got any feedback?

Hello there Ernie and Bert.

You state that everyone should give up on footy as you will end up broke. It appears from you opening post that you only seem to bet on short price favourites and not really use any statistical information to back up your bets.

How can you be sure that someone who bets in a different way to this will also end up broke.

doridoru     26 Apr 11 07:28 
So how come Ian Erskine's Fts service makes decent profits, im looking to getting this anyone got any feedback?

there loads of scammers out there with systems ... this is just one of them

a quick search an he does lay the draw ... hardly clever or worth paying for

Hello there U.A,

My point is that whether you back short or long etc , it will eventually bite you in the ars. Ive been through all the markets and it all comes down to luck and gambling.Unless you have an edge which simply isnt there you cant make a long term profit. Unless you can tell me what it is? This sport is so unpredicatable. Discipline is an important part of it but very very few people have it. We all say I will place a bet and turn off but soon this stops and some night you are bored and start doing stupid things and blow it and start chasing. Most if not all footy punters have been down this road. If you have somebody in partnership with you then you may make a go of it but lady luck can take care of you while still having discipline.

Ernie you are in a partnership with Bert and it still doesn't help you.

Unless you have an edge which simply isnt there you cant make a long term profit.

Are you saying you think no-one really has an edge on betfair?

There are in your face blatant edges shown in every match every day of every week. They're staring you right in the face

Soccer / Champions League; Top Goalscorer 08/09    Backed - Lionel Messi    2000.00    B     1.02    WON    39.99
Soccer / Champions League; Top Goalscorer 08/09    Backed - Lionel Messi    896.19    B     1.02    WON    17.92
Soccer / UEFA Champions League; Top Goalscorer 09/10    Backed - Lionel Messi    50.00    B     1.13    WON    6.51

Just back Lionel Messi to be Champions League Top Goalscorer every year for the rest of his career, and you'll be quids in

Betting Profit & Loss

%&%&%& 26-Apr-2011 23:28

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Golf: -DKK96.00 | Greyhound Racing: -DKK2,982.42 | Horse Racing: DKK10,671.81 | Soccer: DKK26,058.86  Total P&L:  DKK33,652.25

Soccer    Showing 1 - 20 of 64 markets
Market    Start time    Settled date    Profit/loss (DKK)
Soccer / Man City v Man Utd : Match Odds     16-Apr-11 17:15     16-Apr-11 19:12    -2,955.00
Soccer / Tottenham v Real Madrid : To Score     13-Apr-11 19:45     13-Apr-11 21:48    418.73
Soccer / Aberdeen v Rangers : Over/Under 2.5 goals     13-Apr-11 19:45     13-Apr-11 21:47    336.99
Soccer / Aberdeen v Rangers : Over/Under 3.5 Goals     13-Apr-11 19:45     13-Apr-11 21:46    276.05
Soccer / Tottenham v Real Madrid : Correct Score     13-Apr-11 19:45     13-Apr-11 21:38    342.25
Soccer / Tottenham v Real Madrid : Match Odds     13-Apr-11 19:45     13-Apr-11 21:37    449.32
Soccer / Tottenham v Real Madrid : Half Time Score     13-Apr-11 19:45     13-Apr-11 20:31    -270.00
Soccer / AGF v Roskilde : Match Odds     13-Apr-11 18:00     13-Apr-11 19:50    688.32
Soccer / Man Utd v Chelsea : 1st Goal     12-Apr-11 19:45     12-Apr-11 20:28    1,751.06
Soccer / Valencia v Villarreal : Match Odds     10-Apr-11 20:00     10-Apr-11 21:50    -60.00
Soccer / Valencia v Villarreal : Over/Under 2.5 goals     10-Apr-11 20:00     10-Apr-11 21:21    29.83
Soccer / Valencia v Villarreal : Over/Under 1.5 Goals     10-Apr-11 20:00     10-Apr-11 21:15    549.70
Soccer / Valencia v Villarreal : Half Time Score     10-Apr-11 20:00     10-Apr-11 20:49    503.14
Soccer / OB v Brondby : Match Odds     10-Apr-11 17:00     10-Apr-11 18:53    1,089.84
Soccer / Aston Villa v Newcastle : Half Time     10-Apr-11 16:00     10-Apr-11 16:49    -585.70
Soccer / Aston Villa v Newcastle : Half Time Score     10-Apr-11 16:00     10-Apr-11 16:49    -279.69
Soccer / Blackpool v Arsenal : Match Odds     10-Apr-11 13:30     10-Apr-11 15:23    543.01
Soccer / Blackpool v Arsenal : Over/Under 3.5 Goals     10-Apr-11 13:30     10-Apr-11 15:06    1,298.80
Soccer / Bologna v Napoli : Half Time     10-Apr-11 14:00     10-Apr-11 14:49    604.07
Soccer / Blackpool v Arsenal : Half Time Score     10-Apr-11 13:30     10-Apr-11 14:19    481.00
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Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT    
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     unless otherwise stated.

only goes back 3 months but I hope it helps the OP give up

If you want to help him give up, at least show him losses!

Basketball: -£286.40 | Soccer: -£6,459.73 | Tennis: -£76.05  | Tote:  |   Total P&L:  -£6,822.18

Basketball     Showing 1 - 20 of 20 markets
Market     Start time     Settled date     Profit/loss (£)
Basketball / Atlanta @ Orlando (Game 2) : Match Odds     20-Apr-11 00:35     20-Apr-11 03:17     372.29
Basketball / Utah @ Memphis : Match Odds     22-Mar-11 00:05     22-Mar-11 02:19     2.90
Basketball / Texas A M @ Oklahoma State : Match Odds     20-Feb-11 02:00     20-Feb-11 04:26     0.18
Basketball / Brose v Braunschweig : Match Odds     13-Feb-11 16:00     13-Feb-11 17:56     54.95
Basketball / San Antonio @ Philadelphia : Match Odds     12-Feb-11 00:05     12-Feb-11 02:26     2,381.04
Basketball / Dallas @ Denver : Match Odds     11-Feb-11 03:35     11-Feb-11 06:19     7,503.01
Basketball / Dallas @ Denver : Total Match Points     11-Feb-11 03:35     11-Feb-11 06:02     1.75
Basketball / Golden State @ Phoenix : Total Match Points     11-Feb-11 02:05     11-Feb-11 04:21     0.94
Basketball / Golden State @ Phoenix : Match Odds     11-Feb-11 02:05     11-Feb-11 04:20     -22.01
Basketball / San Antonio @ Toronto : Match Odds     10-Feb-11 00:05     10-Feb-11 02:27     -2,867.65
Basketball / Missouri @ Kansas : Match Odds     08-Feb-11 02:00     08-Feb-11 04:13     -5.64
Basketball / Asvel v Hyeres Toulon : Match Odds     05-Feb-11 19:00     05-Feb-11 21:18     105.72
Basketball / Utah @ Denver : Match Odds     05-Feb-11 03:35     05-Feb-11 06:17     -5,000.00
Basketball / Miami @ Orlando : Match Odds     04-Feb-11 01:05     04-Feb-11 03:47     -1,212.23
Basketball / Lottomatica Roma v Scavolini Siviglia PS : Match Odds     30-Jan-11 17:15     30-Jan-11 19:01     -392.20
Basketball / Bremerhaven v Brose : Match Odds     30-Jan-11 16:00     30-Jan-11 17:49     -15.40
Basketball / Aris v Panellinios : Match Odds     30-Jan-11 14:30     30-Jan-11 16:18     -31.20
Basketball / Manresa v Real Madrid : Match Odds     30-Jan-11 11:30     30-Jan-11 13:37     -117.90
Basketball / New Jersey @ Milwaukee : Match Odds     30-Jan-11 01:35     30-Jan-11 03:57     -428.95
Basketball / Indiana @ Chicago : Match Odds     30-Jan-11 01:05     30-Jan-11 03:28     -616.00

The Investor - at those prices, all your previous profit accumulated over previous YEARS could very easily be wiped out in an instant if Messi suffers an injury that rules him out of a couple of rounds of the CL.

E&B is absolutely correct in his original assertion that there is no consistent long-term profit to be gained from betting on football. There really are just too many imponderables to try and counter.

I.quit.my.country Joined: 09 Jun 10
Replies: 123 26 Apr 11 22:47 
Ernie you are in a partnership with Bert and it still doesn't help you.

TI : If you want to help him give up, at least show him losses!

E&B is absolutely correct in his original assertion that there is no consistent long-term profit to be gained from betting on football. There really are just too many imponderables to try and counter.

That's very narrow minded thinking Plechy. I think Ernie (and probably Bert) and Plechy's problem is that they are trying to predict the future, which is impossible of course.

i predict that Barca v Real will finish in a draw tonight. Everyone who believes that it is impossible to predict the future should now be laying the draw for their full bank, as this has now become an  impossible outcome.

B&E - The rude bit first and then some advice!

I find your thread title incredibly foolish and arrogant which might go part way to explaining why you cannot make it pay. Your assumption that because you cannot make it pay then neither can others (is arrogant in the extreme) - have you considered that others might not be as daft as you?

The sport (football in this case) is actually irrelevant - lots of sports can be unpredictable at times - this game (all sports) is all about prices. If you persistently bet at the "correct" prices you will lose or at best break even and lose to commission, if you persistently bet at the "wrong" prices, over time you will win - this applies to all sports. It's as simple as that!

Getting the "wrong" prices is another matter but if you give it some thought you might figure it out.

A pointer - In my experience you are more likely to find "wrong" prices very early on (before the market has found its level) and in running (where their is often significant over/under reaction before the market finds it level again).

That's all you are getting from me - but there is enough there!
Forget football (as a game), forget any particular sport - think Prices, Prices and Prices.

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Cricket: £67.65 | Golf: £86.48 | Horse Racing: £1,201.00 | Snooker: £1,468.89 | Soccer: £1,558.97  Total P&L:  £4,382.99

I don't normally post these but above is my last 30 days - and I am no expert on any of those "sports" except Horses Racing where I like to think I know  a bit (and ironically that is my worst 30 day result on HR for quite some time!) - Prices, prices & did I mention prices?

The owners of Brighton and Brentford seem to make a few quid out of footie.

I actually named myself after the best footballer in the world to modestly reflect my status as the best footie punter in the world

Reality is, theres plenty of millionaires around just from betting on football.

If i was to name myself again i'd opt for a more realistic name like Crouchrat.

i think quite a few who make money on football  would be laughing at this

U.A. : i predict that Barca v Real will finish in a draw tonight. Everyone who believes that it is impossible to predict the future should now be laying the draw for their full bank, as this has now become an  impossible outcome.

Your guess could be right or wrong, obviously.

Messsiiiii!

The best player in the world, and still he's underrated. If you made absolute bundles from my fabulous tip, I expect no reward.

Please make a donation on my behalf to the Battersea Dog's Home instead.

And number two. 'However brilliant he is, he goes and does it again. Give Ronaldo & Co a three goal head start next year, and they'll be in with an outside chance.

So 'The Management', are we to assume, having previously derided the OP for his "foolish and arrogant" thread title, that you took the advantageous odds-againt price on Barca tonight and cleaned up with their 2-0 victory?

I think we should be told . . .

Hi Plechy - I think in all fairness the OP's thread title deserves to be derided - so I stand by my comments. Unless of course you agree with him (that because he is unable to make it pay that nobody else can either)? I am never going to be a rocket scientist (because I don't have the capability) - but I believe they exist! 

And in fairness I then went on to give some advice.

I didn't have a bet in the CL game at all (it's all about prices, remember!). I went to the pub.

That's interesting The Management. I would have thought everyone that makes money on football would bet on that.
Roughly speaking the 'bigger' the match, the more I can expect to make. I place hundreds of bets a day though. I guess you're much more selective.

Showing 1 - 50 of 220 bets for yesterday, about 200 of them on the CL match.

I think we have different styles of play Investor.

I had it down as likely to be a negative/cagey match and likely to be poor (as a spectacle) but so did most pundits and this was pretty much reflected (imo) in the prices. I toyed with selling goals on the spreads but couldn't see much upside at 2.35. I toyed with under 2.5 goals but would have wanted more than the 1.80 that was available. Also toyed with Barcelona HT/FT (when Barca were drifting nicely) but would have wanted more than the 5.50 that was available (when I left the house). I had a very satisfactory day on the Horses, so couldn't see much up side in getting involved in a match where any price advantage was (imo) very marginal - games don't come much bigger but in terms of the way I bet, there are better games for me to get involved in every day of the week.

I think I am turning into Kevin Pullein (in my old age) but if the horses are kind, I find it very easy to pass on games like that.

have to agree with TM that the thread title was an exercise in asking for it (or fishing for tips/pls)

why post something that lots of people know not to be true from their own direct experience?

It is quite a natural thing to do though guys. I remember from reading the market wizards books how some of the guys that got rich with fundamental analysis said technical analysis was nonsense. Kind of like saying, 'look I'm really successful, what I do works, I tried that other stuff and failed, it doesn't work.'.

The only part of that sentence that's true is the 'what I do works' bit. If you succeed at something, you've proved it's possible. The mistake people make is thinking the reverse is also true: 'if you fail at something, you've proved it's impossible.' A fairly obvious but common flaw, even among otherwise intelligent individuals.

Hello Investor. The common flaw that causes this is arrogance and does not have much to do with intelligence.

All points accepted, ive waved the white flag and admit defeat. And to posters The Management and the investor, i am delighted you make it work, you are part of the minority. I didnt mean any arrogance, you can understand my deflation typing the original thread after the horrible luck i had, there was also a previous weekend with horrendous luck. I chased and got done. I do however stand over the point that it is very very difficult to make it work.