General Betting
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It is without doubt the most unpredictable sport. I used to think it was safe market to get into. Boy was I wrong.
My last bets were as follows, either im just a stupid c u n t or plain unlucky.
Last Wed, lay man u to win 1 0 at 11/1
Thursday night I won on ht 0 0 on Porto game
went in at ht and decided that Kiev v braga was most likely game to have another goal, out of the 4 games i got it wrong.
Yesterday using the reserves I layed the ht 0 0 in chelsea game.. out of all the games in premier league it was only game with 0 0 !!
At half time on my last legs I laid 3 2 in spurs game!! game finished 3 2.. could not believe it.
For a while i was playing with overs markets laying say over 4.5 when it was 1 1 or 2 0 or 0 2 with a short period left then all the really late goals rattled in when i didnt want them.
Ive tried pretty much everything and im still clueless.
Time to give it a rest until September or should i just give up![:(]
people come on football betting forum with all these glorious wins and i told you so's but you would have to think that its a money pit.
I have won nice ammounts and have gone on good runs, then you think you are invincible but it soon goes all pete tong..
My last bets were as follows, either im just a stupid c u n t or plain unlucky.
Last Wed, lay man u to win 1 0 at 11/1
Thursday night I won on ht 0 0 on Porto game
went in at ht and decided that Kiev v braga was most likely game to have another goal, out of the 4 games i got it wrong.
Yesterday using the reserves I layed the ht 0 0 in chelsea game.. out of all the games in premier league it was only game with 0 0 !!
At half time on my last legs I laid 3 2 in spurs game!! game finished 3 2.. could not believe it.
For a while i was playing with overs markets laying say over 4.5 when it was 1 1 or 2 0 or 0 2 with a short period left then all the really late goals rattled in when i didnt want them.
Ive tried pretty much everything and im still clueless.
Time to give it a rest until September or should i just give up![:(]
people come on football betting forum with all these glorious wins and i told you so's but you would have to think that its a money pit.
I have won nice ammounts and have gone on good runs, then you think you are invincible but it soon goes all pete tong..
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does seem a waste of time and money because it is, betting big or small always the same in the end, ........just treat it as a bit of fun
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No offence but I stopped reading after the title.
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obviously some people are winning money. i wouldnt believe everything on the football forum. maybe try different kind of bets. halftime 0-0 would surely come in quite a bit.. unlucky with chelsea tho but celtic were also 0-0 halftime yesterday so hard to know
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i see on another thread u say u have had a bad run of luck, what has actually happened here? chasing? stakes 2 high what?
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aueng pure chasing and stakes too high.. thats about it in a nutshell.. sometimes it doesnt rain but it pours.. i dont promote half time 0 0 s but sometimes it looks a certain lay and doesnt come off. Even barca game wa s0 0 at half time! im going to re gather and come back in september.
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thats a shame man, sorry to hear that. i suppose sometimes it would be a good bet ya. take some time off and enjoy yourself. nice to win but betfair isnt everything.
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Think you know its not Football thats causing you to lose
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If you have an idea that you think might work (like your lay 0.0. at half time example)try it at very small stakes, but if you are £100 up after 50 bets, don't up the stakes. You need 5,000 bets to get a reasonable average. Yes - 5,000! Only then should you gamble more and become a professional. Meanwhile, enjoy the summer and come back in the autumn and have fun with £2 bets.
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I hate to be blunt, but gambling isn't for you, E&B.
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it isnt for anyone really
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It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle.
Sun Tzu. |
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Mr Tzu, of course being one of the bigger profitable punters here. He also says:
He who is prudent and lies in wait for an enemy who is not, will be victorious. and; Opportunities multiply as they are seized. and; The general who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses makes but few calculations beforehand A top punter, imo. |
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in other words, be patient and choose your bets wisely? stonker is right, small stakes practise would suit if you do come back with a different idea. or stick the same. personally i wouldnt like laying half time 0-0 but each to their own.
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"The general who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses makes but few calculations beforehand"
A bit like decorating. It's all in the preparation. |
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stonker
10 Apr 11 10:50 Joined: 24 Dec 02 | Topic/replies: 9 | Blogger: stonker's blog If you have an idea that you think might work (like your lay 0.0. at half time example)try it at very small stakes, but if you are £100 up after 50 bets, don't up the stakes. You need 5,000 bets to get a reasonable average. Yes - 5,000! Only then should you gamble more and become a professional. Meanwhile, enjoy the summer and come back in the autumn and have fun with £2 bets. ------------------------------- Why 5000,why isnt 4978 enough?Why not 11223? Whats the logic with 5000 bets? |
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I believe he was a painter and decorator before he went full time, so that fits.
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you cannot and will not make a profit from painting and decorating in the long run
i firmly believe there should be more regulation in this country regarding painting and decorating, it contributes nothing to society and wrecks lives |
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Agreed, I tried painting and decorating. Spilt paint over the carpet and set fire to the curtains.
You cannot make painting and decorating profitable long term FACT! |
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As soon as you start believing the opening statement you might as well quit. What belief in that statement does is give you a mindset where the fundamentals of gambling are unimportant- selection, staking, discipline, and effectively gives you permission to bet erratically and gives you an excuse to continually lose.
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"Spilt paint over the carpet"
I've done that. Stepped off a ladder thought I was on bottom rung, was on bottom +1, took step back to steady, kicked tin of blue emulsion over. If a camera had been on me, I'd have mad wayne rooney seem like a mute nun. If the camera had been black and white though, and I'd had a bowler hat on, it'd have been like a long lost laurel and hardy. |
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football can be profitable ,it is hard.
but realise WHY football is so unpredictable. footballers of all sportsmen are probably the least disciplined . i won't go on |
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"you cannot and will not make a profit on football betting in the long run.."
soon to become true in Germany imho |
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The first step to becoming a profitable punter is not to act like a buttweasel.
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That's not directed at anyone in particular, so on offence intended [;)]
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can anyone post an honest profit figure for football market over a long period?
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In 09/10 I made £125k (gross)
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£97.2k after Betfair Charges.
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any small tips or advice you can offer me for down the line, i would be grateful.
thats an impressive figure, well done. |
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And some make a lot more than that, including the future me [;)]
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Only advice I'd give is keep betting small if you're not making money. Focus on making any profit at all, rather than making 'enough to make it worth your while'.
If you can make a consistent profit, no matter how small, you can probably build on it. |
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what markets do you like and dislike?
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What's your average bet size Investor?
I had made around 8% over 700 or so bets and upped my stakes a bit, I have since had a losing run and dropped to around 3.2% over 1280 bets (the losing run was shortly after I had upped my stake so I suppose the figures would look a little skewed percentage wise...) I'm still pretty confident it's just a blip and some refinement would see me making at least 5%. |
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It is without doubt the most unpredictable sport.
If it were impossible to make money betting on something, it would be because it was predictable, not because it was unpredictable. |
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It is difficult to argue with Lori. After all if it was predictable then we would not be able to get any money on.
I reckon the two key things to profitable punting are, understanding what the right price is and never assuming that any selection will win. In a nutshell. |
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Predictability or forecastability depends upon 3 types of information
1. Some of the information relevant to an outcome which is available to all. 2. The balance of relevant information which may be known in total to none but in part to a few 3. Random or chance factors which are by definition completely unpredictable There can never, therefore, be a "right" price only an "opinion" of price and whether one profits or not will vary with experience and expertise, inside knowledge, and luck. |
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Lori, i agree with you, except that football can be also infuriatingly unpredictable.
like i said earlier i think footballers mentally plays a huge part , the ability for them switch off at crucial moments in big games ,or get sent off for a rash tackle /descent is beyond belief,frightening . I don't think it would happen as much if footballers had an average IQ or atleast a reasonable level of discipline. |
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Football is a team game and there are few scoring plays so obviously it is unpredictable.
I think it's easier to profit when things are predictable myself. |
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Not sure if I agree with you Sanddown. Say in football the same teams were to play each other (theoretically) 1 million times maybe in some parallel universes or something (!), there would be certain average results in the markets : that's the "right" price surely?
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Predicting is not possible. Educated guessing is.
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