Horse racing selections using maths on stats

I have been working on a system to allow me to ditch the formbook of horse racing in which you need to watch so many races to get a visual form idea. as I dont want to dedicate my time to watching horses on a sunny tuesday evening and still make money on the big races at weekend or at the big meetings which I stll enjoy watching I have being working out a system using stats for top races avoiding novice hurdles and national hunt flat races as well as 2yo and a early season 3yo races on the flat.

This thread will be used to record the selections prior too races the stats have been calculated on.

Saturday 9th April is the first day and the national meeting

2.15 Aintree

Finian's Rainbow 0.72
Starluck 0.69
Ghizao 0.60
Dan Breen 0.42

The above four are the value selections

Starluck has conditions too suit on the stats and may close the class gap on Finians Rainbow, the value pricing on each selections allows too bet on them both so thats the call.

Starluck 8.23 @ 11/2 = £45.29
Finian's Rainbow 13.33 @ 4/5 = £10.67

So Finians Rainbow wins £2.44 Profit made, Finians rainbow wins £31.96,something else wins then £21.56


2.50 Aintree

Binocular 0.82
Peddlers Cross 0.81
Celstrial Halo 0.79
Oscar Whisky 0.56

The above are the four value selections

Binocular has conditons too suit and so does Peddlers cross who has trip form. Celestrial halo has less conditions too suit and OW has ground doubts on the stats.

Binocular £13.79 @ 9/4 = £31.02
Peddlers Cross £17.50 @ 13/8 = £28.35

Binocular wins £13.52, Peddlers Cross = £14.56, Both lose = -£31.29

Aintree 3.25

Take the Breeze 0.68
Tarablaze 0.67
Hey Big Spender 0.55
Rare Bob 0.54
Categorical 0.33

The five value selections

Tarablaze has alot in favour and recieves weght from take the breeze, rare bob and hey big spender, whilie categorical is well exposed. Take the Breeze has more too offer over a trip he is unexposed over and rare bob at the prices can be included in the price as next best on the stats calculation then hey big spender.

Tarablaze £12.60 @ 9/1 = £113.41
Take the breeze £9.2 @ 16/1 = £147.69
Rare Bob £6.41 @ 14/1 = £89.80

Tarablaze wins = £97.80 Take the Breeze wins = £128.68 Rare Bob wins = £68.00 All 3 lose = -£28.21

4.15 Aintree

What A friend 0.73
Big Fella Thanks 0.69
Quinz 0.57
The Midnight Club 0.57
Silver by Nature 0.38

The five value selections

Silver by Nature has conditions not in favour and has to give weight to Quinz who has conditions too suit along with big fella thanks and what a friend should have no problems with the ground, the Midnight club is still unexposed on these conditions and has improvement too come. All four can be backed on the stake workings if I had to plump forone it would be 1st Quinz, 2nd Big Fella thanks 3rd What a friend 4th the midnight club

Quinz £10.98 @ 16/1 = £175.67
What A friend £11.75 @ 14/1 = £164.48
Big Fella Thanks £6.09 @ 20/1 = £121.87
The Midnight Club £10.04 @ 11/1 = £110.39

Quinz wins = £147.79, What A friend £137.37, Big Fella Thanks = £89.10 The Midnight Club = £81.57 all four lose = -£38.86


Just for those intreasted this is what this system has thrown up using stats too shortern the selections process at aintree festival

Robinson Collonges 0.75
Quito De La Roque 0.61
Master of the Hall 0.61
Wayward Prince 0.61

Master Minded 0.85
Somersby 0.75
Albertas Run 0.68
Kalahari King 0.65

Scotsirish 0.66
Always Wainning 0.48
Isnt That Lucky .47
Fine Parchment 0.32
Alfa Beat 0.23

Souffleur 0.72
Buena Vista 0.58
Sir Harry Omersher 0.56
Ringaroses 0.47
Battle Group 0.44

Big Bucks 078
Karabak 0.77
grand crus 0.56
Kyber Kim 0.47

Denman 0.80
Punchestowns 0.77
Nacarat 0.53

Woolcombe Folly 0.72
Silk Drum 0.65
Sports Line 0.63
Mamlook 0.61
Safari Journey 0.50

Medermit 0.69
Wishfull Thinking 0.64
Royal Charm 0.58
Tharawat 0.57

Problema Tic 0.60
Bothy 0.56
First Point 0.53
Russian War 0.43
Ski Sunday 0.35

Hopefully a good dy tomorrow