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General Betting
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These 9828 comments are related to the topic:
The £100 K challenge
The £100 K challenge
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you're right undern.
-£800 maunsells duke to place. -£2k shuai peng tennis match last january -1k US Racing (19th july) there are others  |
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i doubt it because this is where your time and efforts should be focused on (solely) rather than asking others about points and their own strategies .... I expected you to go away for a month do the past results investigation look at each and everydays future matches ... try things out and then after a month give me a PM to say yep going to try this or not bother with that ....
Slicer's Holy Grail ....    |
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asking others about points
horse racing forum? |
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So here comes Djocko collapse from heat exhaustion and oncourt push bike with a siren attached to the paramedic's helmet [:p]
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ok looking back at your advice i have tried one of them already before but it has its flaws. you also said FTS betting. isnt that just "football trading system"
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oh ffs wise up Paulme will you ... getting completely sick and tired of all this.
i suggested you look at something - ffs it is not a 100% complete idiot proof suggestion but one to take away trial (paper) for at least a month and work out parameters (odds of teams, goal stats) to filter what matches to apply it .... as for FTS - I suggested you may wish to register/join for at least a little while to help widen your understanding of what other strategies other people use ... not to say it is your path to riches .... create your own systems/strategies .... |
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calm down undern.
here is the website where you sign up i assume: http://www.ftsincome.co.uk/?hop=0 also were you referring to my thread on horse racing forum about points before mate? |
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why are you putting up posts like this last one ...
I couldn't care less where you signup and what websites you sign up to so there is no need to check with me (as I don't belong to it). Why post ? As for points - you know i was referring to your horse forum thread so again .... why post ? |
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ok undern you're a fair sport.
as for FTS - I suggested you may wish to register/join for at least a little while i simply wondered where i'm supposed to be registering as it's your suggestion to me and i was honouring it. you accused me of not bothering before and now i do and you say you could care less. can't win. |
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you also said FTS betting. isnt that just "football trading system"
Well you wrote this before ... so it sounds like to me you are already well versed with what it is and what website you need to look at .... so stop posting on here and just do it if you want to register (or not). It is not for my benefit nor do you have to do something simply to honour my suggestion ... There is no brownie points on here - as to whether you do something simply because someone has suggested it ... |
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fair play. good luck in the 2nd set here bud
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Sorry. One more 'quick' post (it started off as 'quick' when I began writing!) from me, and then I really will go - everybody apart from Paulme, please scroll down a good page or so for normal Undern service...
Paulme, your problem is that you're not digging underneath the surface. You can't just, for example, lay faves. That itself isn't a winning strategy. If your overall strategy is laying faves then you have to have an idea of why you want to lay that particular fave. Sometimes the price on a fave will be good value. Sometimes it'll be bad value. A lot of the time it'll simply be a fair price under the circumstances. The minimum you need to be doing is trying not to lay the fave where it's underpriced. And your ultimate aim should be to only lay a fave when it's significantly overpriced (so its odds are too low) relative to its chances of winning. So what you need to concentrate on are the individual factors that influence the fave's chances of winning. In horse racing, basic things you might want to look at are: 1. How has the horse fared in the past over that distance? Is today's distance likely to be too short or too long? 2. How has the horse fared over today's track?. Different tracks (particularly in the UK - they tend to be more uniform in the US) are demanding in different ways. 3. What is the class of today's race. Has the horse run in a race above that class previously? And if so, did he do well there. If a horse has been running competently at higher classes, dropping to a less good field could well bring out the best in him. 4. Are his speed figures good? Do they place him ahead of the other horses? Consistency can be a good key too. One good speed figure may be an aberration, but if that horse has consistently produced high figures at similar C & D, that horse is likely to be a factor. Sometimes the score will be artificially high - achieved in favourable circumstances (a slow or fast pace, a good post position) that won't be repeated today. If the last score was low, was it because the horse met with an incident? 5. Condition. Has the horse raced recently, or is he coming off a layoff - if he's been off the track for more than 5 weeks, are you sure he's in good order? Be very careful of horses who had a bad race last time (particularly if they're dropped in class straightaway). Poor performances that can't be explained by adverse race conditions are often down to a horse losing its form. 6. How closely matched is the field? In some races, you'll have five or six horses on very similar speed figures. The closer the top horses are, the more likely it is that the fave will be beaten. Take the best score (from the last two races) of each horse and rank them in order. Compare the figure of the top horse with the figure of the fourth or fifth-ranked horse. Theoretically, the smaller the difference, the more closely matched the horses are. How does this affect how often the fave wins? 7. Does the horse start from a good post position? In flat racing, certain post positions (particularly at specific tracks) have a high win rate. Other post positions will give the horse a big challenge if they're to win. 8. Size of field. Seems obvious, but some horses are too short in price given that there are a lot of horses up against them. More horses means more opportunities for things to go wrong. Prices on faves will frequently be higher in order to reflect this, but that isn't always the case. 9. Run style. If a horse likes to tool around at the back of the field before making a late charge, he could be in trouble if the pace at the front is only middling. On the other hand, if a load of horses go charging away at too fast a pace, they could exhaust themselves, leaving the way open for closers to come through and take them late on. This is easier to tell in US racing, but if you can get some idea of what a typical early pace should be for those horses (perhaps using a stopwatch), then In Running in the UK racing gives you some good opportunities to tell if a horse is underpriced or overpriced early on. 10. Maidens. Some horses will be bet significantly down in maidens. But when are they a good bet? Can you get sire ratings so that you can see which sires have a good winning percentage in their first races (easy to get in US racing, not so freely available in UK stuff). A horse whose sire has only a 5% win rate for first-time starters probably shouldn't be evens. Are the trainers good at bringing through maidens? There're actuually loads of different factors in horse racing, but those are some angles to try - the things I concentrate most on are class, speed figures, the closeness of the competition (measured in terms of speed figures), consistency and, when the angle is particularly strong, the pace of the race. (If you want to concentrate on football, there're obviously loads there, but I don't think we've really got the space here..) Choose one angle at a time and see if you can find some races where that angle (higher level of class, good speed figures, races where the speed figures of the top horses are all very close together etc.) is particularly prominent. Try and get a feel for each angle and in which types of race the angle becomes significant. Bear in mind that most races are unfathomable - particularly for somebody who isn't very experienced. What you want to look for is the odd race or two over the course of a day, where something is just plain wrong. Every day there are faves whose strengths (class, speed figures, speed figure advantage over the competition, consistency, suitability to the distance, run style etc.) aren't sufficient to justify their short price. Sometimes they'll win regardless. Indeed, if you lay faves, you should expect them to win regularly - although over a substantial period, 3.0 shots that you lay should be winning less than 33% of the time, or you need to get more selective and do more research. As Undern says, your staking has to be correct. You have to be able to allow for runs against you. If you're concentrating on laying horses at 3.0 or below, for example, you should be able to withstand five or six of those horses winning in a row without it killing your bank. Start with £2 bets - you shouldn't be putting yourself in a position where you can lose several hundred! If you're concentrating on laying faves below 3.0, set aside £25, for example. (If you need money, take the advice you were given last week and do some of the free bet offers - you'll make £100+ guaranteed if you work through a couple of the offers on freebets.co.uk) The key thing is, though, you must have a good reason (or reasons) for laying a horse. If a fave is well priced, it'll be because its reasons for being superior to the field are justified by its odds. You must be confident that its reasons for winning are actually not as sound as the market reckons. And to be confident, you have to extensively research the factors that go into making a horse good or bad in the context of that race. If you don't know why you're laying a horse, don't lay it. And don't be put off when a race goes against you - as long as you're selective and play only when you think you've identified something the market hasn't, then you'll win. And the more research you do, the more often you'll see what the market's missing. Research the factors that go into making something win, and you'll do likewise. But it's about an awful lot more than whether to back or to lay. |
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thanks for taking the time to do that. a few instant reactions: (again sorry undern)
where does one find these speed figures? i understand the point of all this research and im guessing it's in order to be one step ahead of the market rather than just backing the fave. i follow timeform and racing post tips and even those "experts" get it wrong most of the time, and i assume they do all the above, so it's very hard, however. i am also reading partick veitch's book on horse gambling. fascinating stuff. i take it you make a good living on horse betting lord bobbin? |
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undern, thanks for posting the answers to my question but u know what u have said and ur betting pattern dont match... for example you lay Await the Dawn at 1.7 and then green out at 10, why? why not at 3 , 5 or 8.. ur examples are all for jumps, in flat dont u think it is rare for a horse to win in a group race at that stage..your football example also does not make sense, the question is would you have greened up if man utd scored the goal with 20 mins to go?
you don't have any method/edge/system behind your selections and greening up.. most of your selections are 10-15 ins prior to the event..and if i am wrong, you can post your days bets and odds sometime in morning before the event.. that shows you have done your homework and not picking selections as you go along.. its not a bad thing or something to worry about as what you have done well is bank management.. your bank is 11k+ now and i am sure you will keep it above 10k, i am even sure that you will hit 20k because you are managing the money well.. your mini challenges are also very interesting concept.. the road to 100k is possible but each doubling will take longer and longer.. and there is always the risk that you will lose discipline and blow it all.. best withdraw 5k now as you know you are never going to go down to that level again.. i want you to be successful so hope you dont mind... gn + gl |
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Excellent post Lordbobbbin. I did try and give it 5 stars but it only registers as 4 stars ....
Given that Paulme has asked many questions on many threads - I suggested to Paulme many many months ago to start a thread called something like " Answer Paulol's Questions " - Paulme (aka Paulol) .... which would allow him to ask questions and for others to reply in their own time. ... however he hasn't done this... Could you two either kindly move your discussion on to a new thread perhaps as suggested above or even use Paulme's challenge thread that he started a while back ... thanks |
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undern's mini challenge's always make 100s. proper goldmine they are
that thread of mine is kinda extinct for now really as ive lost so much money since then it's like looking back at a distant star. anyway back to your 100k challenge undern... |
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Undern, point taken! Thanks for the tolerance and good luck.
Paulme, not too much more to add, but I'll post a quick reply on your 'anyone got any good systems..' thread. |
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ok lord bobbin.
tennis bet coming home to roost undern. gn |
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Ocean0201
Firstly what I do - I do to fit in within what I call my particular utility curve. i think i explained myself well in my answer however when and at what odds i look to green up and the factors I look for are my own to consider not anyone elses (nor do i need to justify it to anyone) ... I have posted this previously - i normally look to green up approx 5 - 8 times the lay price (that is very general though). Why do you think someone would green up at 10's instead of 3's or in fact green up at all - it is for you to decide what you would rather than concern yourself with when I green up. I guess one thing is that if I greened up at 3's i might get matched (more often) but earn less overall profit (perhaps) but then again I would be minimising my liabilities perhaps sooner or more often - well these are all things to think about on an individual level. Risk adverse perhaps ? As for my methods/selections etc - I do actually there are many things I consider which I have previously outlined (a few times) but I am afraid I am not going to post hours before an event simply to please others .... as you know I do pre-event betting and a lot of ir trading as well - sorry if this doesn't fit in what you consider is normal practice of betting but I find greening up, ir trades and watching the odds moves around before say a race important tools in my betting armoury ... As for the football example - it was a perfect example - Man utd are notorious for come back with some late goals to win a match so if I had layed them from the start and then go down a goal with 20mins to go - me personally would look to green up ir (because that is how I want my utility function to look) as opposed to perhaps you or someone else simply staying with your original lay (and in turn potentially lose your whole bet simply because you don't agree with the concept of greening up). Remember sports betting is dynamic - with constantly changing conditions that we all must digest and in turn act on if you feel it necessary .... |
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nice but perhaps drawn out win on Simon in the tennis ...
 ... shame about the small loss in the Djocko match ... |
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An interesting day
.Challenge Summary: 03/04/2011 2500 04/04/2011 2575 05/04/2011 2600 06/04/2011 2861 07/04/2011 2962 08/04/2011 2750 09/04/2011 2885 10/04/2011 3062 11/04/2011 2726 12/04/2011 2325 13/04/2011 2440 14/04/2011 2800 15/04/2011 3100 16/04/2011 2950 17/04/2011 3267 18/04/2011 3111 19/04/2011 3000 20/04/2011 3296 21/04/2011 3307 22/04/2011 3601 23/04/2011 3550 24/04/2011 3714 25/04/2011 3600 26/04/2011 3615 27/04/2011 3807 28/04/2011 4086 29/04/2011 4277 30/04/2011 4708 01/05/2011 4400 02/05/2011 4255 03/05/2011 4047 04/05/2011 4883 05/05/2011 5019 06/05/2011 5166 07/05/2011 5451 08/05/2011 5650 09/05/2011 5760 10/05/2011 5800 11/05/2011 5598 12/05/2011 6133 13/05/2011 6667 14/05/2011 6972 15/05/2011 6906 16/05/2011 6950 17/05/2011 7046 18/05/2011 7320 19/05/2011 7500 20/05/2011 7799 21/05/2011 8050 22/05/2011 6959 23/05/2011 7178 24/05/2011 6652 25/05/2011 6722 26/05/2011 5800 27/05/2011 6020 28/05/2011 6214 29/05/2011 5500 30/05/2011 5760 31/05/2011 6006 01/06/2011 5680 02/06/2011 5680 03/06/2011 6225 04/06/2011 6292 05/06/2011 6000 06/06/2011 6000 07/06/2011 6336 08/06/2011 6268 09/06/2011 6284 10/06/2011 6438 11/06/2011 5857 12/06/2011 6241 13/06/2011 6444 14/06/2011 6770 15/06/2011 7112 16/06/2011 7311 17/06/2011 7671 18/06/2011 7793 19/06/2011 7292 20/06/2011 7464 21/06/2011 8069 22/06/2011 8184 23/06/2011 8460 24/06/2011 8235 25/06/2011 8286 26/06/2011 8405 27/06/2011 8876 28/06/2011 9081 29/06/2011 8396 30/06/2011 8430 01/07/2011 7755 02/07/2011 7200 03/07/2011 7304 04/07/2011 7386 05/07/2011 7641 06/07/2011 6706 07/07/2011 6503 08/07/2011 6000 09/07/2011 6115 10/07/2011 6358 11/07/2011 6665 12/07/2011 6952 13/07/2011 7626 14/07/2011 7634 15/07/2011 7974 16/07/2011 8430 17/07/2011 8157 18/07/2011 9000 19/07/2011 9137 20/07/2011 9360 21/07/2011 9599 22/07/2011 9900 23/07/2011 10208 24/07/2011 10435 25/07/2011 11186 26/07/2011 9700 27/07/2011 9391 28/07/2011 9820 29/07/2011 9649 30/07/2011 10354 31/07/2011 11178 01/08/2011 11500 02/08/2011 11602 03/08/2011 11826 04/08/2011 11000 05/08/2011 11186 06/08/2011 11449 07/08/2011 10750 08/08/2011 9000 09/08/2011 9000 10/08/2011 9880 11/08/2011 10951 12/08/2011 11000 13/08/2011 11000 14/08/2011 11254 15/08/2011 12000 16/08/2011 11700 17/08/2011 12060 |
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Well I guess it is the next day already ...
1 goals or more 1.55 £159.99 Ref: 15953147894 Bet matched: 03:15 18-Aug-11 Brazil U20 v Mexico U20 - Total Goals back inplay off to bed !! |
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[;)] nice goal ... sleep tight.
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Ball (AUS) 18th Aug - 10:30 R3 1710m Pace M
6. Shalackin 4.6 £1.99 £9.15 £7.16 Ref: 1388222580 Bet matched: 10:31 18-Aug-11 4.7 £2.91 £13.68 £10.77 Ref: 1388222580 Bet matched: 10:31 18-Aug-11 4.7 £6.00 £28.20 £22.20 Ref: 1388222580 Bet matched: 10:31 18-Aug-11 4.7 £9.52 £44.74 £35.22 Ref: 1388222580 Bet matched: 10:31 18-Aug-11 lay |
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6. Shalackin 4.3 £21.00 £90.30 £69.30
Ref: 1388224773 Bet matched: 10:33 18-Aug-11 still not started so bit more on the lay ... |
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 ... think the odds dropping gave me a hint which I didn't take ... |
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Hoba (AUS) 18th Aug - 10:38 R1 461m Juv
1. Fresh Octane 4 £11.81 £47.24 £35.43 Ref: 1388233328 Bet matched: 10:38 18-Aug-11 4 £12.69 £50.76 £38.07 Ref: 1388233328 Bet matched: 10:38 18-Aug-11 lay |
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SPrk (AUS) 18th Aug - 10:44 R3 515m Gr4/5
8. Crossfarnogue 8 £4.30 £34.40 £30.10 Ref: 1388243330 Bet matched: 10:44 18-Aug-11 8 £14.00 £112.00 £98.00 Ref: 1388243330 Bet matched: 10:44 18-Aug-11 lay |
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... might have to do a three strikes XXX I'm out .... |
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Penr (AUS) 18th Aug - 10:47 R4 2125m Pace M
2. Smiling Serene 5.3 £2.83 £15.00 £12.17 Ref: 1388250112 Bet matched: 10:48 18-Aug-11 5.4 £1.81 £9.77 £7.96 Ref: 1388250112 Bet matched: 10:48 18-Aug-11 5.4 £11.00 £59.40 £48.40 Ref: 1388250112 Bet matched: 10:48 18-Aug-11 5.4 £15.86 £85.64 £69.78 Ref: 1388250112 Bet matched: 10:48 18-Aug-11 lay |
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... although i'm going backwards with my bank .... |
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Hoba (AUS) 18th Aug - 10:58 R2 599m Gr4/5
3. Lenny James 7 £29.00 £203.00 £174.00 Ref: 1388263453 Bet matched: 10:58 18-Aug-11 lay - what a sh1t price i got |
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Ball (AUS) 18th Aug - 11:00 R4 1710m Pace M
9. Heisbackinblack 4.5 £2.87 £12.92 £10.05 Ref: 1388269078 Bet matched: 11:01 18-Aug-11 4.6 £42.97 £197.66 £154.69 Ref: 1388269078 Bet matched: 11:01 18-Aug-11 4.7 £4.16 £19.55 £15.39 Ref: 1388269078 Bet matched: 11:01 18-Aug-11 lay |
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4. Cornelia Marie 6.4 £3.93 £25.15 £21.22
Ref: 15954260272 Bet matched: 11:11 18-Aug-11 6.4 £5.06 £32.38 £27.32 Ref: 15954260272 Bet matched: 11:11 18-Aug-11 6.4 £5.97 £38.21 £32.24 Ref: 15954260272 Bet matched: 11:11 18-Aug-11 6.4 £7.75 £49.60 £41.85 Ref: 15954260272 Bet matched: 11:11 18-Aug-11 6.4 £27.29 £174.66 £147.37 Ref: 15954260272 Bet matched: 11:11 18-Aug-11 11.11 lay |
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Recovered now nearly back to my starting bank from yesterday (okay around £9 down
) ... going to do some work and pick and choose very carefully which races to get involved in ... but mainly going to listen to the commentary and look at the form details of the runners as I am pretty piss poor at greyhound betting ..... |
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Ooh, I hear the last £9 are always the hardest to earn...
Good job though! I don't know how you manage to make it work doing so many bets, but you're smacking down those markets with righteous vengeance! And yeah, stay away from those dogs.. Unless you fancy being the hare! |