Calculating goal supremacy

Don't do this myself but i suppose if Man United would be expected to score 90 goals in 38 games and Wolves to score 38....

You would have United +1.37 goals superior .At a neutral venue .

There will be a +/- for Home Advantage

Cheers tober you're a good man, one thing though their must be away to calculate this as the season unfolds I.E. Liverpool goal supremacy different now than at the start of the season. I think goal difference in the prem is approx a half goal iirc.

By the way tober how do you calculate odds usually? I know if you follow a league you should nearly come some what naturally.

If you changed your view about a team, say in the example above you felt Wolves were better than you originally thought, you would just calcualte it on them scoring , say, 44 goals, rather than 38 .Though you would consider 38 games from now, not what they'll get this season.

I calculate Match Odds using a Ratings Table and a Pricing Table which gives odds for any match based on the diffrence in ratings for each team.

Kevin P would be proud

Avg Goals Home Team at Home   
Avg Goals Conceded Away Team Away
   
Avg Goals Away Team Away    
Avg Goals Conceded Home Team at Home   


This gives you Home Team expeted goals and Away Team expected goals.

The GE is the difference between the two.




If only it were that easy

But that may be a starting block for you.

Sorry I made a mistake.

The Supremacy is the difference between the Home team and Away Team GE.


GE is the Home team Goals  + the Away Team goals

Rocket to the FACE Joined: 28 Oct 08
Replies: 9965 24 Mar 11 16:39 
Avg Goals Home Team at Home   
Avg Goals Conceded Away Team Away
   
Avg Goals Away Team Away   
Avg Goals Conceded Home Team at Home   


This gives you Home Team expeted goals and Away Team expected goals.

The GE is the difference between the two.

If only it were that easy Laugh

But that may be a starting block for you.



This would be the simple approach - I would then weight this based on how each of the teams compare against the average for the league as a whole. For example, if Liverpool score an average of 1.5 goals per game, they would expect to score this against an average team. Hoever, if they are playing a team that is worse than average (and this can easily be calculated) then Liverpool would expect to score 1.5 plus a bit more for playing a worse than average team (who concede more than the average for the league as a whole).

Rocket, I don't differentiate between home form and away form.
I don't accept that teams good home teams or good away teams.
Have a look at sides that have seemingly poor home form for the
first half of the season and see how they perform in the second
half. You would be surprised. 50 points from 30 games is just
that irrespective of any seemingly imbalance between home and away IMO.

Well post your solutioin up then. That's the question ^

The usual way of calculating goal supremacy is:

HGoals = Home team goals scored
AGoals = Away team goals scored.

We take one away from the other to arrive at one figure, GS. Then, to derive 1X2 odds from this:

Home =(0.0156*GS+historical_home_win)
Away =(POWER((0.0003*GS), 2)-SUM(0.0127*GS)+historical_away_win)
Draw = Remainder up to 100%

Goal Supremacy has always been reasonable at predicting home wins, approximately 65% for EPL compared against the mean average of 46% if guessing that all games would result in a home win. Away wins and draws however, is a different matter. Goal Supremacy has always performed poorly for those.

Cheers.

Solution ? There isn't an exact solution IMO, but I wouldn't
disagree with anything posted by tobermory. He is a realist.