Systems, methods and strategies. My 10 year conclusion

yes fll i must admit i did miss celeb BB this year, probably one of the funniest shows all year when they get the right mix in there. A summer without BB wont seem right either, your cash in that market is a lot safer than any bank.
im sure the Brits was a minor dent, keeps you in check to take a hit now and then. it just means some poor bugger will pay for it on the next event
goodluck with the rest of the year, may pop in and take a look at BGT when it starts.

I'm not sure it is greed in a lot of cases, armagnac. I think it's more compulsion.

I sometimes wonder what would happen if BF gave people back their banks as cash, but kept markets running with pretend money in them that you could never withdraw. I'm convinced a lot of people would just keep doing what they do now, even though there was no real money in it.

Interesting a couple of times you mention "£100 a day". Is this a literal thing, or just a rough number you feel you need.

I ask this because on my travels I've tended to find that losing players check their P+L far more often than winning ones, while the winning ones check it in more detail when they do.

It's a little different since the introduction of the PC of course, as sometimes you need to know how you're doing on the week but other than particularly good and bad runs where it becomes interesting, I rarely have the question "How am I doing today" in my head.

Lori

Interesting a couple of times you mention "£100 a day". Is this a literal thing, or just a rough number you feel you need.

When i 1st started it was nice to have a target to aim for and a £100 seemed a fair amount as this was what i could earn doing my day job...but that was my thinking in the early days and it gave me the motivation and belief it could be done. Now ive learned that you can have the best system in the world but you may still have the odd losing day here and there but over a week/month you will always come out in front ( as mentioned above )

Ok cool.

I think it's very important not to obsess over P+L (Which is a little awkward as many successful types - not all before I get jumped on - are statty types who find such things fascinating.)

It's important to analyse from time to time how it's going, but I know people who checked their daily P_L several times a day, the purpose of that simply eludes me!

maybe its OCD

I'm sure a lot of successful gamblers can associate with that in fairness, you only have to watch the debates on here to work that out (Yes I include myself in that)

Two quotes from Thomas Edison that may help in those weary hours of research & study.

"I am not discouraged, because every wrong attempt discarded is another step forward."

"Many of life's failures are people who did not realise how close they were to success when they gave up."

Loving that second quote. There are definitely pain barriers to be overcome in this game sometimes.

There is another one that is credited to Henry Ford, but I think has been used all over the place so I'm not sure if anyone can claim ownership of this one, but I think this is the overriding default setting for us all.

I think someone else posted it up on the forum before & I am paraphrasing here, but I shall repeat it anyway.

"If you believe you can then you can, if you believe you can't then you can't."

It may not suprise you then, that i suffer with OCD. Actually mentioned it to the doctor once but there is nothing that can be done for it. Its in your head and its something you have to beat yourself imo, there are different levels and types of OCD.

1) cleanliness - Where you have to watch your hands over and over again after touching something you think could be dirty or contaminated. Could be something as simple as retrieving the mail from the door, also i would imagine lots of hoovering. In extreme cases some people have upto 20 showers a day !!! ( this is the worst form of OCD imo )

2) arranging - This is the one where you have to put all your CD's/dvd's/video's etc, in alphabetical order or arrange them in a specific way. Extreme cases of this would probably be your tins of beens would all have to have the label facing a certain way and stacked neat and tidy.

3) windows and doors - making sure your doors are locked and shut before leaving the house, also checking lights are off, oven is off. making sure taps are not running etc. Extreme cases are taking a longtime to check everything is fine and going back to the oven 10 times to make sure its off and re-checking doors are locked. what should take 5 mins ends up taking 20 mins !!


I know number 3 pretty well coz thats the one i suffer with bigtime, number 1 does not bother me as i quite often eat food ive dropped on the floor and number 2, well if you seen the state of my house there's no chance i suffer with that either

The strange thing is i still recall the day i caught OCD, yes caught it like a cold...infact i think it was planted in me like a seed and layed dormant for some time. well it was not over a day it was planted but maybe over a few months.


It began when i was about 12 and most mornings i would get a lift to school from my Dad on his way to work, now at the time i didnt realise he suffered with OCD and would take ages leaving the house so i would get fed up and go and sit in the van and wait for him. He would finally leave the house and shut the door but would'nt let go of it, he would check it over and over again to make sure it was shut. Sometimes he would get to the van and then walk back to the front door and recheck it again, and on the odd occasion even go back into the house to check god knows what...then on shutting the door he would have to go through the process of checking over and over again. sometimes taking 20 mins.
Now im sat there watching all of this, thinking what a complete loon my Dad is 
Now im not sure when my OCD started but it was when i was an adult, so it must have layed dormant for quite a while then suddenly kicked in at some point and ive been stuck with it ever since.
just to add my dad has still got it and his has got worse as he has stepped up to number 1 and is continually washing his hands, hence the fact ive not been round to see him much lately...dont need that sh!t just yet, he's probably in the shower as we speak

Its not funny if you suffer from it, but you just got to get on with it and carry on the best you can. after all its just in your head.
you have good days and bad days sometimes it only takes me 10 mins to leave the driveway.

Right anyway my reason for telling you this is im convinced OCD is number related, as im a very big stat man and love my numbers.

any thoughts ?

where you have to wash your hands*

I have real issues with 3)

I have to lock the door, walk to the car, walk back and check I can't open the door, then re-lock it.

Upon leaving car I have to put the handbrake on, walk several paces towards where I'm going, then go back and check the handbrake is on!

I hadn't really realised this identifies me as OCD (Though I had my suspicions)

Funny thing is, the day after I mentioned about the handbrake thing to my other half (where she told me - correctly - not to be so silly) She saw a car roll down a carpark into another one, so she's got a few issues now too

I'm also a numbers nutter fwiw.

I do that with the locks & handbrake.

ffs are we all mad?

"Many of life's failures are people who did not realise how close they were to success when they gave up."

................................................

This exerpt comes frm my favourite ever gambling story....

"A third player, Wally Sommons, was in for 10% and did much of the early work compiling a database of past results.

For the first two years the team struggled, wiping out their $150,000 bankroll. Alan injected another $40,000 and they wiped that out too. Then another $20,000. It was enough for Wally to lose his nerve but Bill and Alan, who had by now evaporated more than half his total net worth, persevered. The computer model started winning in 1987 - US$100,000 for the season ...........................................................................................

In 1987-88 he won HK$3 million. The next season $7 million. Then 11. Then 19."

It is where the phrase "don't be a wally" originated

Another OCD loon here. I've had all 3 to some degree at some point in my life.

As for targets. I don't really have any. Certainly not daily, weekly, or monthly ones.
I just try and win more than the year before. Which I've managed for the last 4 or 5 years.
I think I'll struggle to do the same this year with no BB, which has won me 5 figures over the last 3 years.

I'm only £300 up on the year on specials. I hope to add a zero on the end of that when the winner of Dancing on Ice is announced in a week or so's time. And I'd be more than happy with adding another zero by the end of the year.

and on the odd occasion even go back into the house to check god knows what

Ive done this occasionally.

a) Check the back door
b) Check the taps on the bath
c) Check I've turned off Betfair (In case the burglars come through the open doors, have a quick bath and then lose my account , obviously)

yeahyeahwhatever

Thanks for posting, as long as your still enjoying the challenge then keep going im sure your get there in the end.
its become a personal war for me, i will win

@ lori a and b all the time for me

Jesues fll, i wish i'd looked at specials 10 years ago and got stuck into it i maybe sat in a mansion by now

That's all I bet though (seriously) and the poker when I'm in the mood.

I think work is rewarded better in specials than in any other market type on here.

That said, I think the people you're up against are smarter than in any other market type here. I moved on (mostly) a while back because I got interested in some time consuming stuff on other sports, but specials is the most rewarding mentally.

Nothing better than watching the American election results coming in and you've spotted that one of the precincts in a close state hasn't declared and is a huge demographic one way or the other and you can bet 12.5 or something about the clear winners winning.

(Downside is you can probably only get £7 on it)

..and nothing better than backing someone for Elim @ 1000/1 when they're not even up. The elim is cancelled after some psycho is thrown out of the house and your 1000/1 shot is favourite to be eliminated the following week

That too.

or backing 200/1 that someone might have been kicked out when the plug was pulled.

yes i do actually enjoy the challenge on specials and get right into it as fll knows but it can be extremely time consuming and you have to be on hand virtually 24/7 to take advantage of a market position or reduce a liability if something drastic happens. This mainly applies to big brother as thats the only specials market ive took on.
Then there's the problem of needing quite a large bank in the early days of the market to sow your positions and the most annoying waiting long periods of time to collect but  i imagine in most cases it can be very rewarding and well worth the wait.

I had to stop doing much BB a couple years ago for that reason.

There are other things though where you can do some fairly steady research for a copule of weeks, then work solid for 24-36 hours, then go back to normal.

Elections are a good example (also have lots and lots of markets) but there are many others.

I'd propose that for your life circumstance it might be worth attacking it from the angle of "What markets suit me". Clearly BB is not going to really work with a job, but something where you can go nuts for a short time might be.
None of my business what you decide, but if you're determined to beat the game then the starting point should probably be to work out what game you're best place to be beating.

I dont think specials is for me coz of the hours of boredom you come across on many days, when nothing is happening and boredom is a very dangerous thing, for me anyway as explained above..ive found it:

Fun bets is a form of relieving boredom, which if not careful can lead to chasing.
A very dangerous road, a slippery slope ive been down which needs to be controlled with vast amounts of discipline.
But that being said i highly recommend the odd fun bet because as said above it does break the monotony.


I need to be in markets where im constantly on the go, like footy and racing when stats are coming in thick and fast.
although having a go at one of the specials markets is a nice break from the norm now and then.

Again, election nights are a buzz!

8-10 hours of solid stats trickling in, researching, updating projections, etc etc etc.

Ive never really thought of looking at election markets, sounds like it could be my cup of tea...stats and fast moving markets with a few swings.

American are better than English too as each state is a seperate bet and declare slowly through the night.

Almost like 10 English elections in one go for the closest 10 states.

maps of where has declared so far, numbers of who is leading and what might be to declare, national picture to consider etc etc

I should stop now, i think the bath is overflowing.

One way of increasing liquidity

does anyone remember the OCD thread? one of the all time classic threads, imo. I'll try and ttt it.

just ttt'ed it, but it's in football betting.

cheers viva i'll take a look later when the betting slows down a bit, i remember seeing a while back and forgot to look through then.

I always found betting on Big Brother very profitable but it did my head in watching the programme itself so I quit doing it after a few years. I found it just about the most inane drivel available on tv and that was just watching the main show some nights, I could never bear the thought of watching the live feed.

Add me to the OCD list, lol. Same as you Armagnac, I got it from my father, he does the hand washing thing. We used to play tricks on him by placing a single blade of grass on the carpet in a random room, then watch him come in, spot it and pick it up straight away tutting to himself! He actually brushes the road outside his house every day and constantly moans about litter.

My ones are checking the cooker is turned off (I imagine that's quite common) but mainly car rituals that involve checking the bonnet catch is fully pushed in, the handbrake fully down, fog light switch is off, and mirrors adjusted to the millimetre before setting off on every drive, then checking them all again after I've set off.

Also have a terrible habit of double checking other things, I'm a compulsive double checker of just about everything. I think that stems from my carpentry apprenticeship, again with my father who didn't allow mistakes, make a mistake and you were made to feel like a complete fool and bollocked inside out, so double checking everything began there.

I am 53 and have been gambling since I was about 12. Used to play cards on the bus to school and had a regular card school every sunday night. First got into horse racing in 1976. Blistering hot summer with small fields Favs trotting up all over the place. Never had it so good. 

Got brought down to earth when winter arrived. For the next 34 years I have  been searching for that system that pays. Casino, horse racing, poker, lotteries you name it I have tried it. There would be periods of small success followed by the inevitable downfall. Worked for C O R A L S for 13 years which in hindsight did give me an indication of when and what to bet on, but still no holy grail.

18 months ago I followed up a small success I had about 6 years ago and meticulously checked the results back for 10 years and then 20 years. I couldn,t quite believe what I had found out. So I started with the system in December 2009. It takes up maybe an hour of my time each week and the returns on investment are approx. 67%.

So never ever give up the ghost.Good luck with your quest.

Trevh

Your not alone
A few people have mentioned the handbrake on the car, it just shows how random OCD is coz i dint have any problem with that but once ive parked up the car either in town or back at home. I have major issues with the doors and windows making sure there shut and locked. the same checking process as the house.
I must look so odd to the neighbours checking my car for 5/10 mins everytime i come home, lol.
When im parked in a car park and start my checking routine, any passers by must think im trying to break into the dam thing
One of my mates call me OC coz im so bad

dont*

exactaman

I think nearly every gambler in the world has that amazing lucky streak for the 1st weeks of there gambling life and inevitably get sucked into thinking ' god this is easy ' of course its not long before it all comes crashing down.
Glad to see you've turned the corner and are now heading in the right direction, it seems your very long apprenticeship is now paying off
goodluck and remember to take the odd holiday now and then.

'18 months ago I followed up a small success I had about 6 years ago and meticulously checked the results back for 10 years and then 20 years. I couldn,t quite believe what I had found out. So I started with the system in December 2009. It takes up maybe an hour of my time each week and the returns on investment are approx. 67%.'


Nice going, exactaman. Is that horse racing you're betting on?

Thinly veiled what is your edge? By duncan idaho their, because i'd like to steal it off you.

yep, this is def. my spiritual home...

Ok, confession time here.  I have a ritual for checking results... I find it very difficult to watch the end of race - I'm ok up to about one furlong out, then I have to switch channels.  (oh this is so embarrassing...)  So to check results I have a postcard I hold over the bf page for that race, and once the suspended gif is up and I know the race is over, I slowly uncover one horse line at a time (always leaving the horse I've laid until last) hoping for blanks because that means the horse has placed.  If I find three blanks I know my lay bet has won...

Just reading that back makes me realise how stupid my actions are, but it's a ritual I can't seem to break... I enjoy the suspense of it I guess. 


I know it's a long shot... but does anyone else do the same?

I also have to arrange the remaining eggs in a box in a (if possible symmetrical) pattern!

I used to play an American Football simulation called "Gameplan" where the results were sent by post. 6 pages of printout in the format:

0:13 SW LB 1st and 10 Run for gain of 5 yards...
0:42 .... etc

Used to use a stopwatch and only read the appropriate line (Covering up in similar method to yours) when the time on the left came up on the stopwatch.
Friend who also played did the same. Good way to kill an hour

Duncan

In answer to your question yes it is horse racing and I am afraid  that is as much as I will reveal.

yeahyeah , i do the same from time to time on results. start at the bottom and work up, not third place , good not second place yes either won or no where , damn nowhere

Lori, did you get my response to your message?

I sent it a while ago by the way.

exactaman  It takes up maybe an hour of my time each week and the returns on investment are approx. 67%.

Which sport and from how many bets ?

kenilworth..he said it was horse racing.  That said you are not going to go 30 years of trying to make a profit and then suddenly turn a profit of 67% on a consistent basis.  With that sort of a return he'd be a millionaire within a year and a half.  More likely his maths needs retuning.  Nevertheless there are different ways to calculate returns on turnover.  Someone who backs 1500 1.01 shots and has 10 losers.  His return could be 0.33% or 49% depending on how you view it and both answers can be right.

In one market I play and I'm keeping records I had a run of 17 consecutive winners.  In the last 20 markets I have 10 winners and 10 losers.

Kenilworth

As Clydebank rightly pointed out it is horse racing.

The returns on investment are correct at 67%.

E.G. £100,000 invested would return £167,000.

This is based on the last 20 years results.

The number of bets is quite small relatively.

Approximately 50 bets per year.

I have calculated that it will take me until approximately 2018 to win £1,000,000 due to the small number of bets.

There are different ways of calculating %profits and my preference
is level stakes. At 50 bets per year over 20 years, (1000 bets)
£1 per bet, he is £670 in profit, or has he increased his bank by
67%, not naming his stake per bet ?

That is level stakes for the 20 years.

go on exactaman tell us , you know it makes sense. we might be able to refine it for you

I think after 34 years I can refine my own systems thank you Olddesperado, but very nice of you to offer thank you.[;)]

your welcome.

Does it involve 1st time out in blinkers at Towcester?

Am I getting warm?

670 points profit to a point stake per qualifier
from 1000 bets?

Now thats a return i would like to see!. Are you the lad from Mexico who has pipped Gates and Co on the rich list?

Liquidity works both ways. If the market is extremely liquid, then you cannot find an edge, as the price is always close enough to the "true" value that you will never have an edge over the commission.

Illiquid markets however, you can make the markets yourself, and as long as you have a genuine edge and good research, you can put up a book and have a reasonable chance of getting it matched across the market at a fair overround.

I must stress I don't have any experience market making on betfair (my bf bank is about £30, a fact I don't hide), but I can imagine it can be profitable. Even if you're just backing 1.03/laying 1.02 in running in footie matches, enough gets matched you can skim a lot, but you need to be good and have a good understanding of where odds will go after a goal so you can get in early behind the queue without risking getting sniped.

Cricket is good for that, I'll often put up a position knowing it'll get matched after a wicket but actually be a good price despite that.

But a lot of the bets I make work because I'm betting pennies, I would not be able to take out £100 a day just by multiplying all my positions by 100.

If the market is extremely liquid, then you cannot find an edge, as the price is always close enough to the "true" value that you will never have an edge over the commission.

That's not true ror. Sometimes the most liquid markets can give you a great edge, namely 'time'. Every week there are highly liquid football matches where the 0-0 odds don't decay as quickly as they should, just one example. Even Dundalk tonight had a slow decay from 12.5 to 8.5 in the first 30 minutes, that's a great edge for layers.

kenilworth Joined: 04 Nov 05
Replies: 4824 21 Mar 11 18:54   


670 points profit to a point stake per qualifier
from 1000 bets?

No response to the above post, so I will answer it.
It's not only improbable, but impossible. I think
the posster must have the dot in the wrong place.

no it's not impossible kenilworth.  You can win 999 pts from 1 bet for a start on here

fwiw there's a bet I was holding out for available at 40/1 and 33/1 all over the place 3 hours ago that is best priced 10/1 now.

If I went back 9 years and I tried honestly to pick what I thought were genuinely my best 500 (1000 is probably a bit of a stretch) bets over that period before the event I mebbe would have achieved that percenatge return (although it would depend entirely on how many short priced bets there were)

Problem is out of those 500 bets how many would be in mainstream events where you could get £500 on...mebbe 5 a year at best.  Some I may have been able to get only a tenner on ..some like the bet above ..as it turns out nothing at all.  It makes things like Kelly totally redundant 99% of the time as often the biggest challenge is getting on

Over a period of a year, without the benefit of some massive priced winners, and in mainstream events where you could get a decent bet on I'd say it was impossible to get close, but I could be wrong.

kenilworth Joined: 04 Nov 05
Replies: 4824 21 Mar 11 18:54   


670 points profit to a point stake per qualifier
from 1000 bets?

No response to the above post, so I will answer it.
It's not only improbable, but impossible. I think
the posster must have the dot in the wrong place.

Kenilworth

The dots are all in the right place.
As I said in my first post, even I couldn't believe what I found out when I did my research.

There is no way of me authenticating this to you unless I was to actually show you my system.
Unfortunately this is not going to happen.
Whether or not you believe me is entirely up to you.

It's not a matter of not believing, it's a matter of what is
possible and what is not.

An example of your claim; backing, say 1/1 chances would require
a 83% strike rate, 3/1 chances a 42% strike rate etc. Those strike
rates are simply not possible except in the short run, not over
1000 bets. Sorry, GL.

That's me out of this thread.

I beleive his system involves laying, not backing. just guessing, its just easier to find losers than winners especially at the races.

I believe you exactaman that it can be done...........with HORSE RACES ( specific types) anyway........and ROI would be substantially higher, but strike-rate low......Some stats I have for such a high reward betting strategy are for 3 strategies were over 46 day period...

NUMBER
OF
BETS FOR

-284
-454
-508


PROFIT/LOSS
RE STRATEGY
1160.07
1408.44
1354.44


PROFIT/LOSS
RE STRATEGY

1160.07
1408.44
1354.44


ROI
ROUNDED
408.4753521
310.2290749
266.6220472



NUMBER
RACES
7
42
55


So i believe it IS POSSIBLE..........and for someone to state it is NOT, without knowing what the feck someone is doing is pretty ignorant IMO........

Thanks for that Dfcironman. I would have been naive to expect everyone to believe me.

As you have rightly stated they are not fully aware of all the facts, so to make an assumption based on what they do know is a little narrow minded.

Mebbe it is ignorant to think it is possible?

kenilworh never changes his mind on anything as far as I can see in any case.

Exactaman has stated that he has maybe 50 bets p.a.. Being that selective I have no trouble whatsoever believing him when he says that 67% ROI is possible because I have achieved that or better myself when limiting my bets to those that meet all my criteria. Only when I try and up the frequency does the ROI drop alarmingly.

GL to you, sir. Is there a clue in your forum name, I wonder?

Sandown

Thank you also. Think you hit the nail on the head with the amount of bets I have.

Yes I do filter down from a much larger number of races.

As regards my forum name that was yet another of my systems that fell by the wayside. Nice try though.[;)]

If the market is extremely liquid, then you cannot find an edge, as the price is always close enough to the "true" value that you will never have an edge over the commission.

Another thing i'd have issue with as regards this comment is that the price doesn't always fluctuate by a couple of ticks from the true price (or lets say the SP for a Premiership match for example). The event hasn't started, yet its not uncommon for a team that kicks off at 1.6 for example to trade for decent enough amounts 1.53 through to 1.67ish before even any significant team news is announced.

If the market is extremely liquid, then you cannot find an edge, as the price is always close enough to the "true" value that you will never have an edge over the commission.

.......

As stated above that is clearly not the case but as a general rule of thumb the more liquid a market is the less likely you are to find an edge and you are substantially less likely to find a big edge.  The other dynamic is how difficult the market is to price up.  You are much more likely to find an edge in a horse race than a snooker match for instance.  The 2 go hand in hand of course but whereas there will be more liquidity generally in the snooker match there will be more interest and more will be bet in the horse race (pre ir that is)

I have a system that has a return of infinite points to level stakes.

Unfortunately there has only been one qualifying bet in the last 6 years.

But did the bet win Viva?

yep.

was the market on who'd ref the 2006 WC final, btw. The favourite was ineligible.

I backed someone who was ineligible at 180 down to 120 and they won.

Can't agree with kenilworth on this one at all.

Pretty sure I could highlight bets with that kind of ROI. Whether I could highlight enough of them per year or at big enough size to stop me from starving to death is a seperate problem.

I thought you were going to say you backed someone who is ineligible at 1000 Lori

fwiw I think Betfair should manufacture a badge along the lines of...

"I BACKED A WINNER ON BETFAIR AT ODDS OF 1000"

for all 1000 winners

You could be a member of the exclusive "1000 Club" which would give you some free hospitality.  You'd have to wear your badge though

I'm a member of

"I LAID A WINNER ON BETFAIR AT ODDS OF 1000"

Do I get a badge too?

perhaps something tasteful and understated, like a large square silver medal with "betfair fixed it for me" on it.

For having the front to be quite open about it you definitely deserve some sort of betfair award I think.

As I guess Bayes does too for his very frank thread about what happened to him the other evening.

interesting thread here
i too have had a system go t*ts up over the years and maybe its paranoia but i have to ask myself ,,if anybody in betfair accounts department can see when im having a regular stream of income ,,it would be visible as all my winnings are always in percentages of the stake ,,if they saw this could they acces my account and if so with the bet ids realise how i was doing it ,,,NOW if they did this and told a friend or family memeber then that would explain how my system suddenly stopped working ,,,as i said maybe im paranoid but if i worked there and had access I WOULD LOOK  ,,,,i used a triangular system with different markets to cover all outcomes ,,like arbitrage except i trade around the prices at set times ,,one day the prices shifted and never ever returned ,,even to the point where bookmakers could better the price ,,couldnt lay the bet then and the purple site had no liquidity on the market i used so system died ,,,any one else think i have a point here ?????????????????????????????????????????????

trynabe I do, and i think its a major point !!  yes im a little paranoid myself, being an OCD addict dont help and i love conspiracy theories but i think your spot on.
Lets face it, if i worked at betfair ( which i dont ) and i spotted a winning account and it was easy to take apeak without getting into trouble of course i would take a look to see what was going on. Like if someone posted on the forum they had a great winning system, 1st thing i'd do is check there pl,
or if some idiot was bragging they were making thousands i'd take a look just to see if they was really a £2 punter, i think its naive to think that does'nt actually go on ?

If your system involves doing the same thing over and over again using the same odds, watchout !!!

I'd always thought about what you'd said trynabe and always tried to come up with a method that could not be worked out even if someone was studing your account for hours on end.
like value punting for instance, impossible to detect...coz nobody knows where the value is until they actually find it...completely random...but using a stat based system and making it random would be very difficult to do i reckon..

got a few people thinking now hav'nt we ???

Big brother is watching, and a few sneaky staff no doubt

more likely imo someone else worked out the same thing you did, or a different way of exploiting the same market inefficiency.

that's what happens. nothing works forever.

Jeez..anything based on mathematical inefficiency is bound to go or get much harder in time.  Its called derivative betting and is what bookies love because all it requires is a computer program and prices appear for loads of markets.  The ability to initially price up a market is a much scarcer skill than the ability to derive further prices from a priced up event.  It's also a confidence thing....people have much more confidence in taking priced up events

I've made fair money on one particular market and I always used to do it manually.  I built a spreadsheet to do it for me because there was a big event coming up but as it turned out it was a waste of time because for the big event there were early markets already priced up that previously I would have priced up myself and the prices were all spot on (at least I knew my spreadsheet was error free!). 

I clearly was making money before from the markets because I was pricing up future events myself.

i take your points on board and i know pricing a market is basically an art ,,but i wasnt pricing a market i was in a way dutching outcomes by trading around prices in play ,,it couldnt be affected by drift because it was the inplay odds i used to trade for profit not pre match ,,then a difference of 6 maybe 7 points appeared on all matches pre kick off ,,i just found it funny for such a drop ,,and i told absolutely nobody of my system so for a swing that great was a bit suspect ,,especially when main street bookies didnt shift their prices in line with it ,,,,anyhooooo im still working on it ,,and thanks for the normal responses lads,,i thought the forum was gone to pot of late ,glad to see you can still discuss points here

oh and the correction has taken place with main street bookies now ,,but for 3 days the lay was lower but that was never gona last realistically
just thought id add that before somebody asked me

Hi, did you try astrology, in all your testing of systems?

ps. i liked your conclusion, but a conclusion comes when one has ended one's task

hang on in there.

my task was to see if you could have a normal discussion on this forum
youve ended the task now with your childish astrology response

trynabe

i think spot was speaking to me

spot if you were, i dont believe in all that baloney, i also dont beleive in religion..if there was a god, why does he allow such death and destuction..dont tell me to keep numbers down
i believe in evolution and aliens
i love aliens, im a trekkie

The problem I had with my "system" re HORSE RACING was getting it computerised. Did not believe I could afford to pay someone I did not know to do this, and there was the "trust" element re dealing with a "stranger". So I relied on a friend to devise a computerised method to rate races.

Now the above took YEARS to get the "system" ( called hereafter HRS) onto a computer......for friend would have periods where they did no "work" on it.....

Once I had HRS on computer, then for first month of using it , doing roughly 800 races, I made umpteen "errors" in using HRS on computer. Just took me ages to get concentration up to speed, and also the amount of races being covered was pretty knackering, even with using a computer.

The 2nd month, MAY 2008, I was getting "better" at using HRS . However, the system was devised to get GOOD ODDS WINNERS in the top rated horses ....................it was not devised for LAYING purposes.

In APRIL 2008 the system was being used to LAY horses in PLACE market...........which led to it not doing very well due to :_

1. Me making many mistakes in applying HRS and
2. HRS not being devised for LAYING purposes, and
3. I did not really appreciate what the "quirks" of using such a computerised system were ( with certain race types the ratings could be topsy turvy due to some subjectivity in rating races).


After a few days in MAY 2008 then a decision was made to stop an "arrangement" made with an experienced layer to try various strategies using the ratings. A small profit was made over the period of a month and a bit..........but generally i was a bit deflated re the HRS being any good for LAYING purposes in PLACE market. However, the reasons why the STRATEGIES used did not work too well were down to the above 3 circumstances..... 

The "excitement" of getting a computerised version of HRS , combined with using it on computer , something that was alien to me  , contributed to ratings having mistakes being made....Also I discovered later that some parts of the HRS were not functioning correctly! Now fixed !

I layed HRS aside due to being knackered and deflated by the results of using some strategies on mainly LAYING in PLACE market not working as well as had hoped.

Since 2008 I have gone over the ratings and -

1. Detailed all SP odds for every horse rated ( over 10,000 horses rated)
2. Detailed results on ratings .
3. Applying selection criteria to races selected.
4. Considered numerous STRATEGIES on the ratings and found many STRATEGIES that appear to be PROFITABLE ones.

OK ....I only have 623 races where strategies have been tested on but WIN LAYS profit is over 200 points and PLACE LAYS profit is over 140 points ( laying to gain 1 point etc ). How "successful" those figures are ....i have no idea as i am not a LAYER.

However, the point I am making is that some systems are so complex that it is difficult to fully comprehend uses for them......even for the originator of them !


Due to various commitments "work" wise it will take me til JUNE 2011 before I can apply HRS again......now that I know which strategies to use on certain race types/shapes etc.....

As I have seen some posters saying SYSTEMS don't work ...or can't last etc etc .....then thought I'd post this to indicate they can.........if you get to understand them better.....

GL A with digging out all the ones that "worked"!

Unless you have an 'artificial edge' as i'm sure some very profitable people on here do, it comes down to the simple question of 'what should the price be'. If you know the answer to that more than others you will do ok.
Most of the value is in play, hard work and dedication required, their is no substitute for this.The harder you work the luckier you will be  :)