Is lay the draw PROFITABLE in the long run?

Why do you think the odds for any of those markets is wrong?  Ah, and if you could put the words in your first two sentences in a different order then I might understand what you are getting at.

think there is a tendency for the draw market to overreact less, regardless of who scores first - possibly due to the increasingly large number of people using this strategy 

not saying the other markets are mispriced

If you lay the DRAW , whatever the game is, then you are likely to be treading water ...probably....

Having 1 strategy and applying to any game , without selecting games meeting certain criteria, then can't see that being PROFITABLE in long-run.

bakayoko
Date Joined: 29 Jul 08
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When: 08 Mar 11 12:18
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think there is a tendency for the draw market to overreact less, regardless of who scores first - possibly due to the increasingly large number of people using this strategy




3 or 4 years ago there were thousands doing this these days they've either gone skint or seen the light. As has been said you need to lay the draw at odds that are too short and if you're attempting to green after a goal the odds are that you'll be backing back at odds that are too short due to your desperation of greening in case of a quick equaliser.

An associate of mine on the forum swore this was the route to riches about 6 months ago. I tried it four times and three times managed to pick 0-0 draws.

I have got it now, sorry for being slow on the uptake, this is the complete opposite of what I do.

On the lower liquidity markets it becomes more apparent that backers back a win.  Consequently the price for the draw goes too big.  Having recognised that, it is a case of simply backing the value selection.

I would be more inclined to be a backer than a layer of the
draw in most matches.

wasn't assuming it would work when blindly laying every draw if odds were say 3.0-3.8

would obviously be using some sort of screening measures e.g. overs > evens or 0-0 > 15

from the general comments so far im guessing its tough at best if not impossible. considering a winning averages (conservatively) 5% ROI and average loss @ exit of -25% ROI it does seem hard to beat in the long run

unless someone else knows better?

From my experience the matches most used for this are usually priced up home team 1.5 to 1.6 draw 4.2 to 4.7 away team 7.0 to 8.0 so the layers are banking on the fav to score first, you might as well back home team to win or score first imvho

FCG used to be very popular, on the footie forum at one time there'd be a new thread about this every 6 to 8 weeks with some people claiming a consistant +roi using various starting criteria and hedging. Not so much now. It's still done and knowing that it's usefull to play against as some people above have pointed out.

said this before, but seems to me there's an anomaly in the draw price, which is this.

if opinion is divided and a lot of money comes for both teams at once, the draw goes out - even though the action's suggesting they're more rather than less evenly matched.

if I was going to look into draw-based systems, I'd look at that, and stick offers up a couple of ticks above the market in the hope of getting matched in the run up to KO.

Or viva, it might be people trying to lay the draw pushing the draw odds out, which would have the same effect?

I've dabbled in laying the draw. Underdog scores first, draw odds go down not up, you're screwed unless 2 go other way. No goal, screwed. Even when it goes your way the draw odds don't go up as much as you might expect, I suggest watching odds a few times.

And even if favourite scores first, if the underdog equalises quickly enough and especially if Betfair is playing it's 'lets have a ridiculously long suspend and keep it suspended even after the match is obviously underway again' game you may not be able to do anything before the equaliser goes in, which might leave you wanting to knock holes in a few walls.

In short .. wouldn't recommend it.

there's probaby times when that happens JC, but watching markets in real time on geek's toy, you often see the draw pushed out by both teams trying to shorten at once.

I am convinced that I am invisible. [;)]

I'm very surprised Alex the old wrinkled retainer hasn't commented on this thread! Has anyone seen him about lately?

Who is he?