General Betting
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Last chance saloon
Last chance saloon
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Replies: 169
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Bet 11 won Bank 4.86
Todays selection Liverpool v Braga - Braga Win to Nil NO 4.86 @ 1.06 |
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Bet 12 won Bank 5.14
Todays selection AZ Alkmaar v Vitesse Half Time/Full Time Lay Vitesse/Vitesse 0.27 @ 19.5 (not matched yet) |
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matched
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Good honest thread this,one i would hope to see around for some time while you build a larger bank.
Some sound advice too from some of the good guys on here [;)] Would like to join in with a similar starting stake if ok with you as i fancy the idea of one good bet per day. Bet 1, Univ Catolica v Santiago Morning. Thought all afternoon that this game could entice the overs backers in droves while actually having a good prospect of a low scoring result. Went with the unders on 3.5 and may lay off for smaller profit if it looks too open. Under 3.5 @ 1.32,stake £3.12. Home side have scored while posting so hoping not to have got this wrong at the outset. |
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Result 2-1,
£3.12 >0.95> £4.07. |
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Bet 13 won Bank 5.40
Todays first selection West Brom v Arsenal - West Brom Win Both Halves NO 5.31 @ 1.04 (not fully matched yet) |
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matched
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Bet 2,
Nurnberg v W Bremen,Draw no bet @1.69...£4.07 staked. Great form of home side hopefully continues and good recent form of away side has created a decent price here. Matched.GL today. |
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Ref in Nurnberg game totally played into the hands of that cheetin bastrd Pizzaro,two pens and both of them shocking decisions.
If i was playing to large stakes that was the kind of game that would convince me to give up, May need a week or two off now until im all seethed out.  |
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Bet 14 won Bank 5.60
Second selection Southampton v Sheff Wed - Sheff Wed Win to Nil NO 5.60 @ 1.06 |
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Bet 15 won Bank 5.92
Third and last selection for today Atl Madrid v Real Madrid - Atl Madrid Win Both Halves NO 5.92 @ 1.04 (not fully matched) |
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matched
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Bet 16 won Bank 6.14
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First selection today
Sunderland v Liverpool - Over/Under 5.5 Goals Backed under 5.5 goals 6.14 @ 1.03 |
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Well done
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Bet 17 won Bank 6.31
2nd selection Chelsea v Man City - Man City Win Both Halves NO 6.31 @ 1.04 (not matched) |
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Was matched
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Bet 18 won Bank 6.55
Third and last selection for today Napoli v Cagliari - Half Time/Full Time Lay Cagliari/Cagliari 0.39 @ 16.5 (not matched) |
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Matched
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Bet 19 won Bank 6.91
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Keep going footy
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TheSnapper 10 Mar 11 07:38
An honest post. It's good that you can admit that things are not working. If I may add some thoughts which I hope may help you: This whole sports betting world is a freakin' noise factory. Randomness,man, noise...You have been exhausted by your battle with randomness and all the noise. (Claude Shannon saw it all...what we have to do is embrace the noise and make it work in our favour.) Think of a soccer match. Where is the noise? The goals, of course...no one knows when they will come and how often, who will score, etc.. It's just noise. Random. Unpredictable.But the further you step back, look at the league stats on goals, the yearly stats for goals, etc...) the less noise there is. There you go...take that idea. Assume the long-term stats are right and the short-term situation (the match, the next half, the next 10 minutes, etcc...) is just noise. Bet accordingly. Embrace the noise as your ally. But here is where you have probably been going wrong. How much to bet? You have probably (like most people) been betting noisy amounts against noisy events. The result --- bad news for your bank. I have to run away...just a quick bit of advice. You probably won't be over a 5% edge, so don't bet over 10% of your ______bank on a 2.00 shot (ideal Kelly stake). I can help you more on my blog...gotta run. Good luck, man.. Hang in there. _____________________________________ One of the best posts i've ever read on here ,fantastic analysis . |
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also, if you love football don't bet on it ...you may find you place an emotional attachment to your betting without realising .
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you mention your blog Coachbuster, is there a web address. I am not sure if its on here because I use the forum classic version.
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Cheers foe advice and kind words [;)]
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Bet 20 MK Dons v Peterborough - Correct Score
Lay 0-0 0.38 @ 19.0 |
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dlarssonf
I don't know why that blog bit comes up, i might create one though  |
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No worries Coachbuster, my mistake mate
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Bet 20 won Bank 7.28
So 20 bets done just doubled my starting bank , suppose im coming into the period where odd suggest i hit a wrong un  Long way to go yet though and i know one poor bet would put an end to this [:p]Would like to reach a tenner then maybe split into 2 banks of 5 in each This had def helped my discipline before i would be betting on teams whom i knew not very well, but thought i did as researched the game etc Now i mainly play the tv games or the teams i know enough about and who are mainly trustworthy. Even thou im playing at such short odds each bet has to be 100% correct in my mind, as in i cannot see that result happening. Cheers to all those who have commented much appreciated |
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Do you have a long term target to doing this? All the best with it.
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Think the first target would be to vastly exceed the amount of bets that odds suggest I should take a hit on, if that makes sense! I know I have a long way to go yet thou, and probably wouldn't prove nothing to some but that's what I'm aiming at
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Bet 21 Burton v Stevenage
Back under 5.5 goals @ 1.04 |
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Bet 21 won Bank 7.56
No selection today  |
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Bet 22 Estonia v Uruguay - Half Time/Full Time
Lay 0.50 @ 15.0 Estonia/Estonia |
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Bet 22 won Bank 8.03
Bet 23 Spain v Czech Republic - Czech Republic Win to Nil Back NO 8.03 @ 1.04 (not fully matched yet) |
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Twas matched
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Fingers crossed for you F_P
I think there's a few of us who will lose more than you on this if it stays like this |
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Happy Days - well done
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Cheers SonofDunc never in doubt [;)]
Bet 23 won Bank 8.33 Bet 24 Rep of Ireland v FYR Macedonia - FYR Macedonia Win to Nil Back NO 8.33 @ 1.06 |
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^ reason: Macedonia have to win so will have to go for it, cannot see Rep not scoring
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