Good luck mate, keep it up. Interesting that United kicked off at 2.74 v Marseille, their exact highest price matched pre-match. That old trick of backing the big English sides and laying off before kick off seems a dead game now. The drift on Chelsea last night was punished, wonder if it will be the same tonight.

Trade 10: zenit v young boys
                 0-0
                 Back @ 23.0 for £11.18 (matched)
                 Sell target 19.0

Sold at 21.0 for £1.01 or £1.10 profit. Still think it may go off sub 20.0, but happy enough with trade

Trade10: zenit v young boys
                0-0
                Back@23.0 for £11.18
                Sell@ 21.0 for £12.19
                Trade profit: £1.01
                Bank : £12.19
                Running % p/l:  +21.9%

Feel free to post your results Chris/- qpr looks very possible.

Trade 11: sell kilmarnock @ 1.78 for £12.19 liability
                 Target: 1.92

In Scotland, outwith the old firm, you cannot trust any  team to beat another. For killie to be odds on, especially at 1.78, is a buyers' nightmare. Killie were defeated 5-0 last week by a quite frankly rubbish Aberdeen side, and they have lost form in the last few games. St mirren on the other hand, whilst also rubbish, have found some decent form and are pulling clear of relegation.
Outwith the old firm, the spl is about blood and snotters- being able to run is about as technical as these teams get. For a team as poor as killie to be rated 1.78 is wrong- if they were 2.0 I wouldn't have raised an eyebrow. Indeed, if hearts were playing Hamilton at home, I wouldn't rate them as low as 1.78.
I would max the credit card, and perhaps empty the kids piggy bank for this.

I would max the credit card, and perhaps empty the kids piggy bank for this

Hehe, nice write up uncle. One thing I don't get though, is if Killie are wrong at 1.78 (and I have no opinion either way) then why are they 1.78? You may well be right, and everyone else is wrong, but if all the 'wrong' bettors have more money than you then they will hold the price where it is and you won't get the drift even though you may be right. How can you factor that into this type of betting?

So really I'm asking why you expect a drift? Do you think more sensible bettors will turn up who share your opinion, but more importantly they will have more money than the backers who are 'wrong'?

It's very true what you say- if backers are determined enough I will face a loss. I believe 1.78 is tacked onto the high street bookies odds- 1.78 is just marginally better than most bookies. However, William hills for example offer 1.75 which is better after commission than betfair. However, the true rated price by odds compilers will probably be higher than 1.78, after their overround is taken into account.
That apart, the scenarios you describe are the risk I must take- but I feel the subtle nuances of the spl may not be as apparent to for example English people as us sweaty socks.
Most spl games are a lottery, but momentum is gathering slightly towards St mirren- their 1-0 victory at Motherwell was a massive confidence boost for them. Teams like hibs, killie, Aberdeen should never be taken at odds  on IMO. They are just too inconsistent- so 1.78 represents a price to me that is poor value for the backer long term. In the short term, I hope layers 'will see sense' and take this price for a walk. But as you say, Market forces could prevent this. And that's the rub, the gamble inherent in every trade. The key for me is to stop loss religiously and try let the winners run a bit more- long term if my strike rate is good, I should win.
I'm not kidding myself on though- I see almost £2000 wanted to be laid in this tiny  Market at 1.77- he will find it very difficult to find someone to take him on. With £10 trades it's easier- putting thousands on at a time would decimate the % profits using my method. Thanks for writing- I'm amazed now you can see the figures how quiet the forum actually is- I thought thousands were reading it previously .

Matched at 1.82

Trade 11: back barca at 1.4

They are missing key players, but I think barca backers will pull this in. Barca have been kind to backers over the season

Uncle sat morning post the pro backers the kilmarnock road sweepers would find more money in the streets than was traded in that game G/Luck

Another potentially dangerous one here as people always think that Arsenal love to score goals. I'll be impressed if it gets down to 12.5, but I think the Ars back price would have to get up to around 1.57-1.6 for it to hit this target.

Sold at 14.0. For 40p/43p profit- UA can't ignore ur post after the last one so safety first- 0-0 very poss what with the safety net of extra time, though the wide open spaces of wembley will suit arsenal.

Sold at 1.3 for 10p/11p loss . Gotten himmel!!!

Hello there Uncle ho, was out all afternoon so wondering where the 0-0 finished up just before the off. Hope it didn't come in after you traded out.

Good luck with the Stoke one can't decide what's going to happen with that one at the moment.

Trade 13: Arsenal v Birmingham
           0-0
           Back 0-0 at 14.5 for £12.53
           Sell 0-0 at 14.0 for£12.98
           Profit on trade: 43p
         
Trade 14: back rangers @1.29 for £12.70
                  sell @ 1.30 for £12.59
                  Loss on trade: 10p

Loss is only 10p instead of 11p

    1.29    12.70    Back    27-Feb-11 14:24    3.68
Rangers    1.30    12.59    Lay    27-Feb-11 14:58    -3.78
*Average odds: On  Off    Back subtotal:    3.68
Lay subtotal:    -3.78
Market subtotal:    -0.10
Commission :    0.00
Net Market Total:    -0.10

So after 14 trades:
Bank: £13.03
Bank %: +30.3%

Trade 15: Back  Stoke at 1.97

Trade 15: back stoke at 1.97
                  Sell Stoke at 1.93
                  Profit on trade: 25p
                  Bank%: +32.8%

Stoke actually drifted back to 1.99 when I looked after hitting 1.93, so I thought 2.02 was possible- wasn't to be and it's still around 1.93 now.
I must confess I like stoke's style of play- more than barca, arsenal etc. I think they could possibly get third place in spl though hearts fans may beg to differ.

Its a difficult one Patented. I think it is all about the price movement, though the bet has to be plausible.I believe any outcome is possible in a match no matter what price, and any trades I post are not tips about a winner. I try visualise what an unbiased punter would think leading up to kick off (if there is such a thing) about a price on offer. The next trade is explainable like this:

Trade 16
Celtic v Rangers
Back draw @3.6 for £13.28

Again, like trade 5, the market is faced with with an uncallable match. I think Celtic are too low and Rangers too high. The draw is too high also. Both teams are looking for redemption- celtic after their defeat at Motherwell, and Rangers for their pummelling in the last old firm game.
Rangers wont play as badly as they did in the last old firm match, and Celtic wont play as well.
Momentum is slightly with Rangers but Celtic have a slightly better team.
Both teams will be the most motivated 22 players in world football for 90 minutes.
Defeat for either side will be wretched.  Extra time and pens is possible... The favourite has won only 1 out of the last 4 old firm games.......

All these are true and it all lends to a hedging mentality in the market. God help anyone picking a winner here. Last game at Celtic Park, price on draw fell from 3.6 to 3.2 before kick off. Its reasonable to expect the same again.  Little downside , fair upside.

Yeah it makes for interesting reading this thread, always intriguing to see people's approach to trading. Notice Stoke traded at 1.89 last night pre-kick off, although you got a nice profit regardless and I think you got out at the right time despite the odds dropping further (which was probably largely influences by the WBA team news).

Like the look of your next trade also, as you said looks like a trade with very little downside.

Very Good Reading And Going Along Nicely All The Best Uncle

You could probably get out at 3.55 in the next few minutes no bother. I'm not too interested in the Scottish cup myself, i'm surprised at how little money there has been in the market so far,relatively speaking,i'm sure it will pick up over the next half an hour.
Have you thought about the outages the site does experience every so often?. Potential for 100% bank loss if you keep using 100% each time. I know its only a small sum but would be a shame to decimate the project, if you know what i mean!.  Anyway, all the best.