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You certainly could.
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Frog appears to fall into the typical punter group of not being able to formulate an idea research it and implement it, if he could he'd agree with what I am saying.
Have you by chance gone through the A league results to see if what I have stated is correct?? it appears not. Or what about my post on laying dog number 4???? easy to be a critic than actually do some research isn't it? Ppl will always want a bet regardless of the price, that is why punters go broke, they pick at best 1 winner in 3 at odds usually around 3-1 so they mathematically can not make a profit, you'll go broke slowly week by week bet by bet unless you can identify a trend. |
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My forum auto search software found this fred as A League was mentioned twice. Could I ask you all to completely ignore the timing of goals scored stats?
Thank you. |
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A few days ago I was asking if anyone knew of a source for goals scored by minute in matches, because I suspect that the A league isn't an anomaly.
Incidentally the A league gave me my first reliable edge on BF. Still trade every match. Australian Wallet last 7 days Australian Rules: AUD17.43 | Soccer: AUD558.90 |
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I'm still waiting for an answer as to why the mkt. makers are being so foolish as to offer odds so apparently completely out of whack with reality.
Being able to bet on a " virtual certainty " at well over 2.50 is too good to be true. And if it is true and it isn't just a one off anomaly and is translatable into any and all leagues as pxb is implying, then all the professional mkt makers on football CS prices IR are the " mugs", not the run of the mill punters. Is this the case ? |
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Why would a market maker care if some of his prices are value to the backer as long as there are other punters taking his bad value offers ?
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Why would a mkt. maker put up prices that are not just slightly off value, but way off value to a point of extreme loss potential to him/her.
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I don't know anything about the markets that has been talked about here, but I do know something about market making and you are seriously deluded if you think the market makers know the correct prices on all selections on the markets they operate in.
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Not really saying that Eddie.
Btw I thought Australians couldn't bet IR on anything, yet aren't these posters pxb and GoldCoastinvestor in Australia. Also I don't think I've ever seen an Aussie league game available for live betting ( could be wrong on this though ). I'm missing something in all this quite apparently. |
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Plenty of Aussie league matches available inrunning if it's soccer we're talking about. I've never seen decent liquidity on them inrunning thoigh.
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paulme
Date Joined: 20 Jan 11 Add contact | Send message When: 14 Feb 11 17:32 what is turnover ratio/% when it's at 'ome? Not sure what you mean? Trevh Date Joined: 21 Jul 06 Add contact | Send message When: 15 Feb 11 00:49 Investor, how come you don't automate more then? Your first and third weaknesses are the same aren't they? Talking about the Swedish MM, I've often wondered how they can monopolise the markets to such a profitable extent. I mean why don't other bot specialists undercut them with a slightly tighter less profitable spread? They're related, but not quite the same. People trading horse racing and tennis in particular, can turn over huge sums (manually) using a relatively small bank. Even in football there will be people turning over loads more than me. But yes, I could probably triple my turnover and maintain the same edge (triply my profit) if I had a brilliant app that worked exactly how I wanted it too. There are a few obstacles to getting that done though. pxb Date Joined: 07 Jun 10 Add contact | Send message When: 15 Feb 11 02:23 What say you Investor? Even with Chrome which hardly ever crashes, I can't manage more than 10 or 12 markets at one time on a single physical screen. Don't feel obliged to reveal any secrets, but I can't see how you can manage 500 concurrent markets. And I know rather more about computers than most. It's the same for me, I have a max of 13 markets open per screen, but I do have six screens. I use firefox even though chrome is probably better now, as all my 'support' apps were built for firefox, and it would now be time consuming /costly to alter everything. I expect the new multicore support version of firefox will be a lot better, but who knows when they'll finally release it. |
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FINE AS FROG HAIR Joined: 12 Mar 07
Replies: 2251 15 Feb 11 15:08 Why would a mkt. maker put up prices that are not just slightly off value, but way off value to a point of extreme loss potential to him/her. ------------- because it saves him working out what true value is. |
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OK viva, all is perfectly clear now.
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I'm with Frog, the MM's aren't stupid, and in the case in question of late goals involving the correct score markets, the MM's get far more matched on their lay offers than their back offers, as it's obviously an ever diminishing price in that market, where punters back the lay offers far more so than the back offers, by a large margin. Anyone who doesn't believe that, try undercutting the bot by a tick each side, and you'll see that you too will get matched mainly on your lay offers, and virtually nothing on your back offers.
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glad to help froggy
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Mucho gracias senor presidente.
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frog do u work for betfair
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I feel like the invisible man sometimes, haha.
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Be thankful I don't.
With my computer related betting skills, you really would be all in serious trouble. |
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frog what kind of bets do u do on here
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Goldcoastinvestor, I like the cut of your jib, you make very good points. I suppose you get out what you put in!
Would you think that its easier to make a profit on horses than football. Do you bet on any football markets? |
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3) low turnover ratio (I know people with the same profit on turnover percentage as me, and only slightly more funds, who are able to make more than 10x as much, simply because they can get 10x as many bets matched as me in a given timeframe with the same edge.
sorry what's turnover ratio and turnover percentage mate? |
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ive been a sat tv punter
get the racing post/sun in morn go to local cafe--latte/bacon roll ive had a 3/timer--still waing on 4/5 lucky31 small-stakes bet for fun not ruin ------------------------ went to track for first time--yesterday musselburgh parade ring i was stunned how beautiful horses are close-up--a whole diff perspective than on tv --------------------------------------------------------- you def need to have betting stake/plan before you go to a track you can get carried away ![]() |