Real life probability question

Well anyone with a little brain would change gym

but i dont have a little brain
mine is large and powerful

Mansini
You into drugs now ?

LOL @Luloo.

The true chance is the same for both scenarios isn't it?

i like my gym and the girls who work at the front desk

Just because they serve black coffee?

Who's this character you want to avoid ?
Your bookmaker ?

yes 1 of them is black

nah someone i used to be friends with but now i dont want to see her again so i didnt tell her im back in the city

anyway enough of this interrogation
how are YOU frog?

Very jumpy today.
Also feeling a bit green.

Do you see yourself as a bit of a stud Mansini?
A Latin American gigolo perhaps ?

i have to pay my gambling debts somehow

FAFH

Green is better than red! [;)]

But as Kermit said " It's hard to be green ".

Wait in the carpark until they leave

Funny, found this when I searched on google.  It was in a chat room:

My local gym is open 18 hours a day.  I try to go around an hour a day but now this guy who moved away is back and goes to the gym around an hour a day.

Since finding out he's back, I've been varying my hours as much as possible so to avoid him.

The other night I arrived at 7 and had to leave when I saw him going in.

This is a real pain but this guy is one to avoid. 

LMansini,

As Trevh said, the answer to your question is that it doesn't make any difference when you go (assuming that the person to be avoided really is going at random times). Just stick to your favoured time. Of course, it's actually very unlikely that there isn't some sort of pattern to her attendance.

Gur reaction is that it wouldn't matter.
But given there are fixed end points ie. opening and closing time, would this effect the analysis, since there can be no overlapping situation... unless you're assuming one can only start a session on the hour, and not go in from say 7.32 to 8.32?

Mansini,

Go when the gym opens or 1 hour before the gym closes. This will minimize your chances of meeting this person.

Because this minimizes the potential overlap.

Very good pxb!

Wear a wig and fake moustache

day 1, so far so good

top answer goes to PXB

frog hair.. do you honestly believe it should be illegal for girls 18-23 to have sex?  weird

As others say: Odds of both scenarios are identical unless the other person wants to make sure he goes every hour, or has a shift pattern or something else that would make him rotate hours in a way that ensures he covers all hours, or there is something else about the hours, not in the question, that makes his usage 'not actually random'.

The best answer is to get over your ex boyfriend so seeing him in his sweaty muscle shirt doesn't hurt so much .

not gonna happen
when i see his muscles pulsating, lifting, 1, 2, 3..ooh spot me.. oh no

you know hot it is, im sure

if they are truely independent events then it is better if you randomise your entry.

Zola
You're definitely one of the stats expers on here, and your reply has enmboldened me to say something that was worrying me about pxb's reply earlier, which found general endorsement on here.
If ( say) you divide the gym day into ( say) 8 one hour sessions.
Then if both parties go on a random basis, they would have a 1/64 th chance of overlapping.
If however one always go within a set 2 hr window( that either 1 hr before closing or at the opening), and the other still goes randomly, wouldn't they then have a 1/16 th of overlapping.
That is it would become more likely, not less likely.
Am I correct, or am I getting it hopelessly wrong, as usual ?

dont be modest frog
the night is young
its only 7 here

Got that perfumed gel in your hair yet for your hot date tonight ? Also slip a tube of it into your pocket for the planned action later.
Also, don't forget to stack your wallet with you know what ?
And whatever you do, don't go near the gym tonight.

ive already been to the gym today
went at 3pm..figuring if shes workign, her lunch break would be 1-2

shrewd

wallet  =  stacked
2 credit cards = ready

the highest denomination u can get from the machine here is 10 000 pesos

thats like 12 pounds

ive got 84 in my wallet. STACKED.

Don't blame us if you're found lying in a gutter, out cold and with your wallet and your girl gone.

always so paranoid frog

remember when u were terrified of those girls in mexico?   u gotta relax more
im a pro

2 years ago it could have happened, now,  no chance

Maybe I'm talking from experience ?

hmm
how old are you?   im 27

Let me just say that I would think that I have pulled a few more chicks than you have so far.
Of course I cheated a bit on that, by living in Thailand for a number of years, pre-AIDS.

the aids girls are all in eastern europe now

They're everywhere where money is to be made from sex. Don't kid yourself

dont worry
the blonde white girls here have no diseases
its just the dark natives from up north, peru and bolivia

no racism implied

gotta go frog
take it easy,  breathe deep
we gonna be allright
oohhhhohohh yeah

"if they are truely independent events then it is better if you randomise your entry." - Why?

Isn't this thread just a classic example of the "last weekends lottery numbers make this weekends more/less likely" misconceception that people who've never studied proability come up with, except transferred to hours?

just checking, is he better randomising his time?

say he goes every day at 1pm.
the probability of him being there at 1pm is p1=1.
the probability of her being there at 1pm is p2

just checking, is he better randomising his time?

say he goes every day at 1pm.
the probability of him being there at 1pm is p1=1.
the probability of them both being there is p1 x p2 = p2

say he randomises the time
the probability of him being there at 1pm (or any other time) is p1 is less than 1.
the probability of them both being there is p1 x p2 is less than p2

if he randomises his time he is less likely to meet her.

Zola,

That's not true.

To simplify matters, suppose that X and Y can only attend from the start of one hour to the end of that hour (and there are 18 hours).

If X goes at 1pm everyday, the probability of meeting Y is 1/18.
If X goes at a random hour, the probability of meeting Y is still just 1/18 (if his hour had been 7am, then there was a 1/18 chance that she would have turned up at 7, if his had been 8am, there was also 1/18 chance that she would have turned up at 8, etc.).

Thats a conditional statement.

"Whats the probability of meeting her given I am already there"... which is similar and not the same as "whats the probability of meeting her".

The original question is: is he more likely to bump into her if he goes at the same time, or he goes at different times.

I was merely stating that if he goes at the same time, there is a 1/18 chance, and if he goes at different times, whatever time that may be, there will still be a 1/18 chance.

I would have thought that this is pretty obvious. It's exactly like a game where LMansini has to get a different number, picked from 18, than his woman. Suppose each time she throws an 18-sided die. He can either pick the same number and stick to it (in which case, each throw (or gym attendance) there is a 1/18 chance of getting the same number), or he can also roll the die to get his number. Whatever number he rolls, there is a 1/18 chance that it is the same as his woman's.

Contrarian if it IS truely random, we are surely correct here?

IF the hours are truely random, then the hour chosen on a given day does not matter. They are just possible events, and the fact they are hours, IF I understand this question correctly, doesn't matter. It's THIS probability chestnut that some people can't seem to get their head around, same as how some people do NOT understand why 1,2,3,4,5,6 isn't less likely than any other series in the lottery, and why last weeks lottery numbers don't make this weeks less likely etc, etc.

Just checking,

Yes, exactly.

another day
another successful avoidance
thanks all for your help