General Betting
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Value Betting
Value Betting
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Replies: 215
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dammit jim...double up the stakes even if you don't need to!! It's only a bit of fun FFS!!!
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Lori
The odds of a losing run of 15 in a fair sample is nearer to 50% and NOT 1 in 14 million |
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If you pick 15 1/2 shots, the chances are 1 in 14 million. If you expand the sample size, that's great but you'll be winning money along the way to cover the 15 loses when it turns up.
You'll lose 15 2/1 shots something like 1 in 500, but you'll still have nearly 1% of your bankroll left at that point even if it's the first 15 bets you have, which is more than adequate to rebuild. The simple fact of kelly, no matter how you word it, is that you double your bankroll twice as often as you halve it. That means you quarter it once in nine, you divide it by 8 once in 27 and so on. You'll have horrible unintuitive swings, yet it's still the optimal staking plan in a vacuum. (assuming you're not eating it and so on) |
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*The 1/2 came about because I thought the original question had both in the same race, i see that's not the case now, however all the other numbers presented are still correct as I gave all three cases.
It's something like 1.5% of your roll you have left even if you bet the 10/1 shot and it loses 15 times. Clearly you rebuild so fast that this is plenty. |
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The Management you soon recovered, hope you took my advice.
Re nose bleeds, I have at least 3 a day, but move on. Ayr 4.30 Malin Bay. 5.05 Kings Guard Lingfield 4.50 Franco is my name. Back all 3 off the boards, any price the 3 horses the bookies put up, back them till your ears ache. |
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For completeness, if you bet the 3/1 shot that should be 2/1, you still have 17% of your roll left after 15 straight losers.
I leave as an exercise for the reader to see just how quickly these two stakes rebuild when they have an average run of form, let alone a good one. |
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The Management the site going down last week saved me £1,400
at the time nobody Believe me its true but move on you soon recovered was it the white shirt or white suspenders belt that did it for you dont answer .its a mans things sorry girls but it is a mans thing Girls you know how weak we are and we call you **** ..roll over darling |
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why .ussy not allowed
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Land of the FREE home of the brave and we cannot post ****
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Lets try again .. **** cat . ive got two
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dussy cat , grow up Betfair
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Thats zip out
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But before i go lump on Franco Is my Name ..
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The Management you can see from my posts zip has had a very poor day re winners But this is what sorts the Men from the Boys and please dont come re chasing Ayr 5.05 Kings Guards ..
zip will tell you about chasing tomorrow . |
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The Management .. zips been wrong all afternoon all my win bets have been beat , and no names no pack drill zip laid 3 all 3 won
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Frog try this for value zip in the next 2 hours thats about 7.30 pm earth time , will go out with my wife and nusre to our fav eating place both will make sure i enjoy the evening hows that for value . and to boot zip did his brains today .. but the Nurse said darling zip you never had a brain dont you just love em and zip is paying the drinks are on me . good to talk ......
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