General Betting
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08 Feb 11
06:05
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Date Joined:
12 Mar 07
As someone who does not intentionally look for value in striking my bets, I ask the following perhaps naive question.
Is there just one accepted way of quantifying the perceived value you are getting, or your " edge " as some refer to.
For example, if I could consistently lay ( say) 2 to 1 chances at odds of ( say) 2.50, what would be my edge ?
Over (say) 999 lays the following should occur
Losses = 333 * 1.5 = 499.5
Gains = 666
Net Profit ( before commission) = 166.5
How would this translate into "edge" for ( say) Kelly calculations ?
Is there just one accepted way of quantifying the perceived value you are getting, or your " edge " as some refer to.
For example, if I could consistently lay ( say) 2 to 1 chances at odds of ( say) 2.50, what would be my edge ?
Over (say) 999 lays the following should occur
Losses = 333 * 1.5 = 499.5
Gains = 666
Net Profit ( before commission) = 166.5
How would this translate into "edge" for ( say) Kelly calculations ?
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FAFH
On a bank of 1000.00 # The odds are in your favor, but read the following carefully: # According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 15% of your capital, or $150.00. # On 66% of similar occasions, you would expect to gain $100.00 in addition to your stake of $150.00 being returned. # But on those occasions when you lose, you will lose your stake of $150.00. # Your fortune will grow, on average, by about 0.76% on each bet. If all your bets were for 150 liability (level liability for all bets) your losses would be 333*150.00 = 49,950 Your wins would be 666*100 = 66,600.00 On that gross you would at 5% commission paid 3330.00 leaving a net profit of SUM(66,600.00-49,950.00-3,330.00) = 13,320.00 Net That net is on an outlay (total risk) of 999*150 = 149,850.00 Divide your net by total risked 13,320.00/149,850.00 = 8.88% edge (Rounded down to 2 decimals) That's my opinion, others may calculate edge differently. |
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Yep CM that's sort of the way that I come at it too.
Tks for the confirmation though. |
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I'd calculate it more simply:
2-1 is decimal odds of 3, stay with the decimals - it's easier. Working it through with an example: I place 90 lay bets at 2.5, true value is 3. In each case I bet 1 stake I win 60 bets, pre comm I make 60 stakes return on these bets. I lose the other 30 bets, which costs me 45 stakes (1.5 *30) My overall profit is therefore 15 stakes (60-45) I put 135 stakes at risk to make my 15 stakes (90*1.5), so my pre comm edge is 11% - which personally I would express as 0.11 (15/135) With Comm: I have to pay comm on my winning 60 bets - so I'm down to 42.75 return on them. I lose the other 30 bets, so that takes my net profit down to 12.75 - therefore my post comm edge must be 9.4% |
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hmmmn...my Kelly calculator says that Mr FAFH should actually be slamming down 32.5490% of his bank based on a 16.6% edge and odds of 1,51 (66% win rate), unless I am missing something here.
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Where did you get 16.6% from?
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I thought he said he made 166,50 profit after 1000 bets.
Anyway, so for an edge of 11% at 1,51 odds, my calculator gives 21.5686% as the optimum Kelly Stake. |
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http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/
In the odds box enter 1 to 1.5 In the winning % enter 66 |
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Frog laying one horse per race you have no edge your gambling nowt wrong with that i gamble every day
but take this on board if the track bookies could only lay one horse per race any horse of thier choice .. you would not have any of the boys playing . |
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Frog zip will give you an example 1.15 zip lays Home 2.05 Thanks for Coming zips a lay .. why i dont fancies em and there short but to say i have an edge is rubbish its a punt thats all
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If you cannot lay a 15/8fav well laying is not for you .
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Gee tks. Zip for hijacking the thread in your usual inimitable fashion.
This is not a challenge thread, just in case you might not have noticed. But tks. for your interest in the modern world - it's not all bad you know ? |
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afternoon zipper
missed u yesterday u say above lay one horse per race and u have no edge explain this i thought home had a very good chance i thought tivers song didnt i lay what i dont think will win |
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Zipper some of the things you say, dearie me.
Why would you want to lay favourites when when there is usually two to three times as much value to be had laying the over 7.00 shots. |
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Compound Magic : Interested to hear how you can back that claim up?
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dunter1
I have posted many times on here of selections I lay that I have priced between 6.00 and 25.00 usually about 40 a day or average 5 a race. Last year there were 1847 of them in 51 betting days. |
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Compound Magic: Thanks for that. So what must your srtike rate be to go into profit ?
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Compound Magic No grief if you can't be bothered, happy with what you've said.
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Ok you guys lets have a bit of banter. Zips first lay won at 13/8, Zips second lay lost. If you have the Post - Thanks For Coming forecast 5/4, my win bet in that race- Risaala forecast 13/2, come post time , Thanks For Coming was 5/2 fav & Risaala was 7/2.Good job the Racing Post don't lay their prices. but at 4/1 on here Risaala was the value .
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Compound at 7/1 plus zip could give you plenty but you cannot get any decent money on . at 11/10 up to 9/4 on here you can have your balls on
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 zipper would make a great secondhand car salesman |
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Its only a bit of fun . The Management zips just read your post 13.57 now listern up prick face, zips still here and will be god willing, long after your gone ...... game on
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i would take 1.01 compound magic
has not had "his balls" on any horse over the last few years he wouldnt be that stupid the clue is in his name zipper slowly slowly catchy monkey |
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Greed , I dont bet on things i dont know . Say if Compound Magic has had is balls on or not i could not know so no bet
now if you put up 1.01 zipper balls on .. well its just a case of how much do you want to lose ... its only a bit of fun |
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Mgt
Well this thread is about " edge". And I suppose Zipper is qualified on that subject, in the sense that he clearly toppled over one very large one at some time or other and unfortunately landed on his head. |
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The Management now read this slowly my Name Is Zipper ..not zimmer read and read again say zipper zipper not zimmer after a while even a prick like you should guess its ZIPPER . over and out
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Wow, what the hell got into Zimmer?
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Stone Roses .. its ZIPPER not zimmer have some respect
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Frog in horse racing there aint no "edge " why cause there Animals .. now lets talk , cards . poker . snooker . darts . yes the best have got an edge because there the best .. and they dont bet the horses .. have you got that in any of them games its not unkown for a champion to do a 15 break .. in horse racing its never happened so far
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Zipper is this close... Rain lover won a Melbourne Cup by 16 Lengths hands and heels no whip.[;)]
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Wow, you've enlightened me Zipper. Where should I send all my money back to?
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Frog Rocky Marciano was 15 out of 15 never got beat and that was for the championship of the World .. betting horses dont count .
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I have a question. How to calculate stakes using Kelly criterion when average winning odds are different than losing? Hypothetically:
Laying horses - average winning odds (horse did not win) are 8, losing (horse won the race) 7, winning % is 86. I am guessing I have to input 1 to 6 and 86. The result is 2%. Is this correct? But how to get the same result using the calculator below? http://www.seriousbet.co.uk/calculators/kelly_staking |
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Sun Wukong , book me a table for four sat night plenty of good food /wine / whisky and zip will put you right
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Smoking or non-smoking section?
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Sun Wukong
Your collects are only 86% and your collect bets are at the odds of only 1 to 7. Kelly says no bet you will lose and that is before you have to deduct commission. You will have to do better, it's back to the drawing board for you. |
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I did write 'hypothetically'
 Why did you use the average winning odds - 8 in decimal? I thought that losing odds should matter most. |
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Sun Wukong
Your post said the average losing odds (collects) were 8 which is 1 to 7 If you meant the average dividend was 8 then it would be 1 to 6 and you would still not have an advantage using Kelly. Before commission you would have no net gain per bet, it would only be a break even scenario. After deducting commission you would show a loss. |