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Replies: 230
By:
turtleshead
When: 20 Feb 11 15:45
Have a look at a load of the smaller markets where liquidity has been destroyed due to the pc, no-one gets any bets matched, does this give you a clue?
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 20 Feb 11 15:58
Aaaah, the smaller markets. You mean traders supply the liquidity in markets where there's no liquidity TurtlesBrain? LaughLaugh
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 20 Feb 11 15:59
Maybe they are all on the purple site after all then? Laugh
By:
turtleshead
When: 20 Feb 11 16:40
Aha, defeated by the smile merchant again. Darn.
By:
turtleshead
When: 20 Feb 11 16:54
Aren't you going to repeat your claim that liquidity will be improved by hiding people's bets so nobody can see what is being offered? LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 20 Feb 11 18:31
It could only improve on those small markets with no liquidity which is all provided by traders. There's fk all to hide. Laugh
By:
The Investor
When: 20 Feb 11 20:41
Feck N. Eejit
Date Joined: 10 Jan 02
Add contact | Send message
When: 20 Feb 11 14:32
Because if they're going to decrease some group's commission it should be the group that contributes most to liquidity.


Yeah, the most important liquidity providers: losers.

I don't think decreasing any group's commission is high on betfair's to do list though Laugh
By:
The Investor
When: 20 Feb 11 20:51
Don't you think the best indicator of how much liquidity you provide is your commission discount rate?
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 21 Feb 11 12:09
Commission generated would be a better indicator Investor.

The all new liquidity generating Premium Charge = (GrossProfit - 5 * CommissionGenerated) / X.

X should equal 2 (IMO).

PS Did see your contact request Investor. Please don't think I ignored it. I didn't see much point as I rarely venture into the forum beta.
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 21 Feb 11 12:10
What does it do anyway?
By:
luloo
When: 22 Feb 11 17:49
wonder how many new payers this week will bring.
By:
steve3455
When: 23 Feb 11 15:16
Early positive signals on regulation from the US have been offset by an expensive defeat in the Australian courts over taxation, while initial soundings from several European countries suggest that they may follow Italy and ban betting exchanges completely.

The difficulty in securing consistent overseas regulatory successes has led market watchers to predict Betfair will be forced to change its strategy outside the UK and become a traditional bookmaker, thereby taking on risk from punters rather than simply receiving a commission as the middleman. One betting industry expert said: "Betfair has £170m of cash sitting on its balance sheet, access to debt and its own shares. It is a question of when, not if, it makes an acquisition."

When asked if the company was considering furthering its overseas ambitions by bidding for a bookmaker, chief financial officer Stephen Morana replied: "I don't think we will rule anything out."
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 23 Feb 11 16:00
If they became a fully fledged bookmaker (in a sense they already did with the high rollers) could they be trusted on front running? I wouldn't bet on it.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Feb 11 12:09
I suppose that the PC is the most discussed topic on the forum, and rightly so for it represents all that is bad about big business practice both in the way that it was implemented (incompetent,after the event of establishment, customers ignored) but mostly because of the  principle of charging for services provided through taking a share of profit achieved.

By operating this way, BF are effectively stating that they are operating a franchise for users. They provide the platform and the users (losers) and the winners reap the benefit of them doing so.They also ensure that minimum charges are in place through commissions and usage charges so that they still make money out of non-winners.

However, there is no formalised franchise agreement which might cover tenure of security as far as PC rate is concerned, no limitation placed on the number of new players/winners who might erode profits of the current franchisees.

This methodology continues to favour trading strategies at the expense of traditional bettors who have far fewer bets, but end up paying more as a share of profit, so its no woinder that the number of traders must grow at a faster rate than traditional players. I am with Feck on this one. Whilst traditional players don't need traders to be part of the collective user base I doubt very much that the reverse would be true. The players most likely to switch to alternatives would be traditional players providing that the closure of winning accounts can be overcome. That for me is the reason why BF is not growing organically in its older markets e.g horse racing, because the bigger players must use alternatives if at all possible rather than be penalised on here.
By:
Just Checking
When: 26 Feb 11 12:39
"This methodology continues to favour trading strategies at the expense of traditional bettors who have far fewer bets, but end up paying more as a share of profit"
Pleaese explain this theory, given the opposite would appear to make more sense.
By:
The Investor
When: 26 Feb 11 12:51
That's ok feck.  I just use it so I know I'm not wasting my time messaging someone.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Feb 11 13:16
just checking

Feck'n eejit explained it well enough earlier if you care to read back but the relevent para is this

Under the old system if you had 100 backs at 1.1 and they all won and I had 100 backs at 110.0 and one won, we'd both have the same turnover and gross profit but I'd be  expected to pay up to 11 times the commission you would. The premium charge doesn't even go far enough to address that injustice as those paying it are still paying a lower percentage of their profits in commission than all other long term betfair winners.
By:
Just Checking
When: 26 Feb 11 15:00
"Explained it"?
The old system is the same as the new system as I read that is it not, if the people concerned aren't paying PC? And:
If you've a person who trades not a jot, but earns enough to pay PC, he'll end up paying ~20% of his profit to betfair. If you've someone who trades 100%, but earns enough to pay PC, he'll end up paying ~20% of his profit to betfair.

If you're use of betfair is such that you're paying > 20% to betfair DESPITE PC, well that's quite impressive.
?
By:
Just Checking
When: 26 Feb 11 15:23
Should really read
"If your use of betfair is such that you're paying > 20% to betfair WITHOUT PC, well that's quite impressive."

The only way that what you (sandown) quoted would make any sense is IF people not trading are actually paying in effect more than 20% of their profit anyway (and that would be impressive). This is not an  'injustice', outside of the mentallist angry tunnel vision world of Feck, it just isn't.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Feb 11 16:09
just checking


Sorry. Can you have another go at making your point because I don't understand what it is you are asking/saying?
By:
Just Checking
When: 26 Feb 11 16:32
What I'm saying is that I NOT accept what you said, albeit a quote of someone else but you obviously believe it. You said:
"This methodology continues to favour trading strategies at the expense of traditional bettors who have far fewer bets, but end up paying more as a share of profit"
I do not accept this to be true. You then posted Fecks link as a justification for it being true but it doesn't appear to explain anything. It doesn't explain why trading is favoured in any way. I then give various cases of ways people might bet traind or not trading to try and explain why I don't see it as true. See?

So I ask again. WHY is trading favoured, I don't see that? WHY would a traditional better pay more commission, I don't see that? Please explain this. If anything the PC is SPECIFICALLY targeted at traders, given it's markets played criteria etc, 'traditional bettors' are less likely to be affected, and even if they are, it's on a level playing field with traders.
By:
Just Checking
When: 26 Feb 11 16:33
I say Fecks link but I obviously mean quote!
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 26 Feb 11 16:45
This methodology continues to favour trading strategies at the expense of traditional bettors who have far fewer bets, but end up paying more as a share of profit, so its no woinder that the number of traders must grow at a faster rate than traditional players. I am with Feck on this one. Whilst traditional players don't need traders to be part of the collective user base I doubt very much that the reverse would be true. The players most likely to switch to alternatives would be traditional players providing that the closure of winning accounts can be overcome. That for me is the reason why BF is not growing organically in its older markets e.g horse racing, because the bigger players must use alternatives if at all possible rather than be penalised on here.

Cheers Sandown. It's not just the commission system that favours traders, almost everything that's bad about betfair is down to favouring traders and cheats over traditional gamblers. The interface not only deters large offers but also seems to have been designed to convey information to parasites, there are regular crashes as the bf servers attempt to deal with the multitude of requests from traders, we've got reduction factors that are based on how traders will be affected rather than attempting to map the remaining runners odds to their likely post-withdrawal odds, skewed trading figures and a trader necessitated charge that deters new customers. They're also almost begging for new tax legislation with their artificially created glut of "professional gamblers". Throw in the loss of customers due to the cheating and you've got to wonder at their sanity. It's as if they're trying to create a memorial to  their pre-betfair city existence.
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 26 Feb 11 16:49
If they want to increase liquidity then they should decrease standard commission for the higher band payers and claw it back with

the all new liquidity generating Premium Charge = (GrossProfit - 5 * CommissionGenerated) / 2.

That would at least force the parasites to contribute a bit of liquidity.
By:
Contrarian
When: 26 Feb 11 17:29
Whilst traditional players don't need traders to be part of the collective user base I doubt very much that the reverse would be true. The players most likely to switch to alternatives would be traditional players providing that the closure of winning accounts can be overcome. That for me is the reason why BF is not growing organically in its older markets e.g horse racing, because the bigger players must use alternatives if at all possible rather than be penalised on here.

Sandown,

Unfortunately, I think that the reason why the horse racing markets are dwindling, whereas football and tennis, say, are thriving, is that the new, younger generation of gamblers have little or no interest in racing. And why would they? It only really exists in order to provide a betting medium, and now that all the other more 'watchable' sports are open to IR betting, racing is bound to suffer.
By:
turtleshead
When: 26 Feb 11 18:06
Traders provide all the liquidity here, and anyone with a braincell knows it (ie, just about everyone except feck)
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Feb 11 20:45
Contrarian

I'm sure that the point you make is valid. However, there are some pretty big horse racing players around (backers mainly) who can't or wont bet on here for various reasons including weak early markets, poor ante-post markets, unfavourable reduction rates,market sensitivity and of course the imposition of the premium charge. Their money is still findiong its way through alternatives such as commission agents, off-course and on-course at big meetings where sizeable bets can be taken.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Feb 11 21:00
turtleshead

Its obvious that the presence of traders in abundance,backing and laying for small gains resulting from small price movements, has the effect of increasing price sensitivity and narrower spreads.But what surely what constitutes real liquidity is the amount of risk capital that is put into the site from players who are betting to an opinion. For example, Player A invests £10k on an outcome.

Say that he doesn't hedge or layoff at all. That £10k provides the means by which hundreds of traders can spread the risk around. Each trader may play £100x 100 times to generate £10,000 t/o but he will risking a tiny amount each time and so the amount of risk money involved might be tiny. To say that its traders who provide all the liquidity on here is a perverse reading of the reality.Traders spread the money provided by others and take a % for doing so. in that way they provide liquidity for smalle rplayers but never lose sight of who starts the process. As I daid, i don't think backers need traders but traders certainly need opinion players.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Feb 11 21:16
Just checking

Feck has explained in his last posts why the exchange is geared towards traders and why it favours trading.


I'll have a go at providing you with some figures which might help.


Take 2 players, both with the same EV - lets say £15k over 1000 bets for £100 staked each time.

player A bets on 10.0 shots. He will average a profit of £15k but it will vary considerably because of variance at the 10.0 level.He could make £35k or he could lose £5k. that's the resultr of randomness at the level of probability that he plays at.At 5% commission the amount deducted will be around £5-£6k whatever his final profit.Its unlikely that he will ever have to pay PC because his deductions will invariably greater than the 22% of profit set by BF. So the introduction of PC doen't really effect him. He is always paying substantially more than 22% to BF.


Now player B is a trader who ends up with a very high strike rate because he greens up a lot. He too should make on average £15k but pre PC his average commission paid would have been around £1k. So pre PC BF's terms favoured traders. Since PC the amount of PC paid would bring the deductions up to 22% of profit but because of the low variance he will rarely if ever be in the psotion of paying more than 22%, unlike player A.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Feb 11 21:31
Feck

I'm resigned to the only conclusion possible which is that BF was set up by traders, for traders and is run by people who only identify with trading and not with backing an opinion. To the extent that the early claims suggested otherwise, action since has shown that those claims have been confined to the dustbin of history. We are where we are and I, like you and others like us, who have an opinion and are prepared to back it, must make most of our dough through traditional channels. BF is still an excellent product but it could have been so much better.It's a shame, but there it is.  This forum is 90% against you because that surely represents the MO of the user base.For what its worth, I agree with virtually every opinion you have  - on gambling anyway - but you are pis**ng in the wind, I fear.
By:
turtleshead
When: 26 Feb 11 21:38
Sandown, why is it that you and everyone like feck who claims traders get such a great deal always refer to ones with a fantastic strike rate, do ones not exist who have a poor oneConfused

Face facts, pc affects EVERYONE with excellent strike rates full stop, it matters not one jot whether you "trade" or not!
By:
Just Checking
When: 26 Feb 11 22:02
Player A 5-6k? He doesn't pay commission on losing bets and only pays it on winning bets, where does this come from?
Is that your 'experience'?
Player B 1k? I'm not sure there's many traders out there would make 15k and only pay 1k on it, that sounds extremely efficient. And of course if keeps on at it he'll get clobbered by PC.

But let's ASSUME the above figures are correct, let's move onto the other part, where is the supposed 'injustice'? You've just said PC shouldn't affect the non trading player, so PC isn't not injust on them.

BF is a level playing field, it has fair rules, and as long as nobody is e.g. exploiting a bug, people are surely free to adopt whatever strategy they can dream up, no different to laying the draw or looking in their tea leaves while singing Dolly Parton if that helps. If a person can get their bet matched securely and efficiently, that's where his interest should end. It's not as if the odds are on an island and this is the only game in town, the odds on BF will change as external odds on the internet change, that's for sure, feel free to go where you like to place your 'traditional' bet.

The strategies employed by others and what others are doing is none of a persons damned business as long as they're not abusing a bug or such. One man placing a bet and another man laying a bet isn't doing anything wrong merely because of what bet they intend to do say a while later, that's just bl00dy mental. Think about it. At this point it just becomes envy and sticking your nose into other people's business and getting annoyed. Given Fecks hard left 'issues' this should be no surprise given their bizarre feeling of righteousness, of a god given right to tell others what to do and instinctive hatred of anyone they feel are doing better than them, but to grown ups who realise we're all individuals with respect for each other it shouldnt be an issue.

That's the insanity of these threads, the bizarre 'moral highground' some people seem to think they're taking, though you (Sanddown) come across as quite reasonable so don't take that personally. BF has a system, it's there for you to use, it's a level playing field for everyone from the unqualified to the PhD. The commission is NOT exhorbitant and if you think it is, the world is full of bookies catering to simple traditional bets. If others are somehow making things work better for them here than you, well .. welcome to life.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Feb 11 22:14
just checking

My figures come from a model using a spread sheet which i look to answer "what if" questions. Its perfectly understandable that without seeing that you might question the veracity.

As for moral high ground, that's not my beef. I haven't used the word "injustice" I don't think. If I did I take it back. I'm not concerned about the MO's of different players but BF should be, purely from a commercial standpoint. Any charging system will have flaws and biases and that's a reality. Trying to get to a point where every MO pays the same rate is what BF have attempted with the PC and it levels up to some degree as I have explained. Don't you think that 2 people on the same bus should pay the same fare for the same journey if they are sitting in similar seats? Why should one who gets off every stop and then gets back on, pay less? May not be the best metaphor but its late.
By:
turtleshead
When: 26 Feb 11 22:19
Well said, JC. I'm fed up with imbeciles and morons who continually make out traders (whatever they are or however they are defined!) somehow get to make vast sums of money at just about zero risk with no effort or skill and pay sod all as a result, so somehow betfair have to charge pc to compensate!

SO WHY DONT YOU DO IT YOURSELVES IF IT'S SO SIMPLEConfused
By:
jimmy69
When: 26 Feb 11 22:25
Some may be children Sandown...others pensionersLaugh
By:
Just Checking
When: 26 Feb 11 22:27
Sanddown: "I haven't used the word "injustice" I don't think"
It was the essence of the second half of the quote you gave and is a general 'theme' which I thought you said were pretty much in agreement with. "The premium charge doesn't even go far enough to address that injustice as those paying it are still paying a lower percentage of their profits in commission than all other long term betfair winners."

I know it's not your words but you know what I mean!
By:
Sandown
When: 26 Feb 11 22:30
jimmy

What's the equivalent of "the naughty step" for foul-mouthed pensioners?
By:
turtleshead
When: 26 Feb 11 23:34
Come on, all you "trader" bashers, why don't you tell everyone why you can't do the same, and see huge risk free sums just flow into your account with no effort or bother and paying betfair next to nothing for the priviledge, it doesn't make sense?!? LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
steve3455
When: 27 Feb 11 05:17
i am a traditional bettor had very few bets per week but because of my success rate it didnt take long to reach the premium charge.the guy said to me you reached it in november,but you must of had a losing streak and then went quiet.i had no problem getting my bets matched and i thought that was how betfair worked.i have no problem how people make there money but for a traditional bettor there is no value anymore in betfair,and since the premium charge i have not had a bet.all i can say is this is simalar to a bookmaker who shutdowns successful punters and the amounts you are allowed to win as a traditional bettor on betfair are simalar to bookmakers.
By:
Eddie the eagle
When: 27 Feb 11 09:14
steve, can you please explain why there is no value anymore on Betfair for traditional punters ?
  I'd also like to know why you don't bet here anymore as per definition if you are paying PC, you have to do very well on here.

Just to clearify, I'm against the PC and think it's a disgrace and the biggest mistake Betfair has ever done.  It's just that I find your statements very strange.

  And Betfair isn't shutting you down as traditinal bookmakers do, Betfair just want a bigger slice of your winnings if you are successful enough to fall into the PC payer category.
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