I've started a blog on betting to buy a house in Florida

...only 338 days to go now!

Til Xmas? Yippee!

GL

what's the addy.

GL.  What would make it interesting is that you commit to live in whatever house you can buy based on your bank in November

^ agreed. Is that a deal?

That's pretty funny. I think I should post pictures in my blog of the best home I can buy according to my current bank. For my current bank, I found that it is actually possible to buy a home for $200!

http://ezinearticles.com/?Back-Taxes-Houses-For-Sale---How-to-Buy-Them-For-$200-Outside-the-Auction&id=4256862

So, I may not end up living in a cardboard box after all!...but these are early days, folks!

five leaves left

For the blog click on TheSnapper (his forum name anywhere) then click on bog at the top.

oh right, cheers.

I use the 'classic' forum, so will switch over to take a look.

The beta one looks a right mess to me and no good for everyday use.

Snapper / five leaves

I've sent you a message which should be in your inboxes.

Hope to hear back from you both.

I've posted a picture in my blog of the best home I can buy in Florida. I hope to work my way up to my dream home over the next few months!

gl, with hard work you can achieve this, maybe split and go halfers with someone

Isn't there a little bit of weirdness in the notion of using a method to accumulate funds for a house in a country. And in that country the method of fund accumulation is deemed illegal [smiley:crazy]

Best of luck with this Snapper, hope you get there

thanks Homer and Winner...I invite you to follow my blog. Free drinks in the pool at the end!

http://www.city-data.com/forum/michigan/407084-have-dollar-buy-house-detroit.html

Good luck

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/02/detroit-homes-mortgage-forecl...

shapeshifter

Excuse my skeptisism, but you've been on here for close to six years, and have a bank of £198. Have you just uncovered Slicer's Holy Grail? Is there some reason why your x% a day will work when all others fail? There's nothing wrong with having a dream, but keep it real.

Cassini its ok, he is only starting another blog, he is not going to rob all your visitors

Well that's a relief. I shall pull my head out of my ar*e and relax!

cpfc,
...been on here more than six years, actually... I don't recommend anyone start a betting bank with a large sum. Always start small and compound it. I could have started this blog with a larger sum or a smaller sum. I invite you to follow my blog and decide if it is real or not. Of course, you are invited to the pool party at the end. Of course, right now there is just a bottle of wine in a bag at the cardboad shack under the freeway!(...But I have increased the bank 50% in two weeks...compounding has started...get your calculator out)

link to blog plz

Click on The Snapper's Blog at top of this page.

got it m8 thx,will watch with interest

Indeed Snapper - if you have an edge, it is quite possible to turn two figures into six, possibly seven over time, but the chances of you turning £198 into six figures in less than a year are rather slim to say the least, especially given that after more than six years, your bank is so small. I wish you the best of luck, although Florida would not be my first choice for a home - next hurricane, and you're the proud owner of a pile of rubble! Have you considered New Orleans?

cpfc,
that's the beauty of compounding! Don't be fixated on bank size, smaller banks just take longer to grow. Of more importance is the edge, variance and consistency in staking size over time. Many betters on here have less than that and for them it would be a large bank.
I think I will have to include the cost of hurricane insurance in my plan!
Seriously, Florida is really a very nice place. Probably there are better, but I also have some relatives there with homes, so that is another factor....good times and paties with friends and family. I don't want to live in Tahiti by myself!

What does the house cost?
What are you betting on, being a sceptic anyone can post figures.

Best Of Luck

Hi Biscar, ibrox,

Well, I just chose $150,000 as a sum. Amazing what you can buy with $150,000 in Florida right now.
I bet on one market only. Check out my blog for details.
Bank has increased from $198 to $334 since I began.

THIS UNIT IS THE ESSENCE OF DR SLICER WOT HAS BEEN PRESERVED.

Purchasing property in Florida is not to be recommended at this time.

Think of all the wonderful expensive holidays wot you can have when you've cracked it like wot I done with the monet you make. Unfortunately I am now restricted to pleasures of the mind as that is all wot is left of me. No worry or maintenance costs of the property either.

I hope this posting is of assistance.

This posting is being delivered by mechanical means from the essence of
Dr Slicer PhD MB BS B Pharm MRCVS DRCOG Cert BhD

Are you going to put bets up also or are you just going to say after every two weeks that the bank has risen by 50%

Hi tier, it might be hard to put up bets beforehand. I could probably post the bets and prices, results, etc.. in the blog if you are interested.

of course it would be nice to follow your challange with bets and also otherwise it does not take long until you are going to be accused in making up bets and aftertiming and so on...

i am following your blog but pls. post some insight into what you bet on , big winners big losers etc..  else i will stop following

ok. Sorry for not being too clear in what I am doing. I wasn't thinking of my blog as a "follow my picks to riches" thing. There are plenty of those already. I think all I can do is discuss what I do and what interests me - i.e. math and probability, gambling theory, etc. help others. For me, the picks don't matter much compared the prices, so I hadn't considered putting up any "picks". But I will try and discuss it tomorrow on my blog for ocean and others who may be interested. Maybe it would help if you posted on my blog what you would like to know, exactly and I could try and answer it.

Management, that's funny....that's exactly what happens with punters starting out with big banks and big bets with no edges!

i dont want picks but i would like to know the sport, the market and big winners and big losers in the week....  that way we know what you are doing... 

for picks i have my trusted dart

I wasn't thinking of my blog as a "follow my picks to riches" thing. There are plenty of those already.

There are?

sure there are, check out:
http://community.betfair.com/

I'm sure you will find some there...

thick five leafs cnnot find a blog ddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddduuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu...

how do i comment on a blog.. betfair makes everything so difficult!! so asking the question here

good article on kelly something that i have never understood or bothered to study but hear a lot about...

i have a mathematical / statiscal method by which i can predict Over 1.5 goals in football and i have a strike rate of around 82%.. over the last 1 year it has placed close to 4000 bets and returned me about 19k on level stake of £100.... odds on over 1.5 average around 1.3

There are weeks when i get only 70% results right (which gives me a loss for the week) and then sometimes i get 95% but overall its around 82% mark using tests on other results and historical data...

Will my returns be better if i used kelly? or can kelly be used in this?

for kelly you need to know/assess the 'correct' probability of success of such bet.  does your system provide this information?

a bit heavier reading on kelly http://bit.ly/g9xXyc
and an easy one http://bit.ly/gaKqVy

isn't the probability also 82% given that these many come in over the test period..
or
if you look at just the probability of score being over 1.5 without historical stats or team news, there are only 3 scores out of possible 17 in correct score market that constitute under 1.5.. 14/17 again 82%

thanks mouse trap... the easy calculator looks good

if you look at just the probability of score being over 1.5 without historical stats or team news, there are only 3 scores out of possible 17 in correct score market that constitute under 1.5.. 14/17 again 82%

dangerous and incorrect calculation. 
-first of all (but less important) - the fact there are 17 scores in CS market is just a coincidence, a choice by betfair, and has no relationship to the 3 scores below 1.5 goal market.  if BF put additional scores to CS market (4-0, 4-1, ..) would this change anything regarding the probability of success in your betting?
-but more importantly, each individual score has different probability to occur (certainly there are more 0-0 than 3-3 etc.), so you'd need to attach some weighting formula to the scores as well.

re your betting history, are all your bets equally likely to win?  if so, than you can increase your ROI by skipping any game where odds are < than your calculated average 1.3.

ocean,
well, I'm not so sure what your bank is, but I believe that Mr Kelly would be happy to see you betting more aggressively..if indeed you have a 4% edge if I understand your stats correctly, and you are winning about 76% of the time...I think that the "ideal" Kelly stake per bet would be a whopping 53% of your bank per bet. Naturally, you probably wouldn't want to do that with a big bank. You can bet amounts up to that 53% kelly limit and still profit, however, you will probably be in second place to Mr.Kelly in a gambling contest!

for kelly you need to know/assess the 'correct' probability of success of such bet.  does your system provide this information?

I'm not using Kelly staking for exactly this reason. I am calculating the edge as I go along on my blog. My model is set for under 10% - probably 6-8% edge over the long haul. I don't have enough data to know the edge yet, so I am being very conservative and using 1% stakes. Mr. Kelly won't be happy, but there you go...What I would do is start a small 'side' bank once I have confidence in the edge and apply Kelly staking. It would be interesting to watch the small 'side' Kelly bank overtake the big 1% staking bank over time.

sorry ocean, seems I'm screwed up my Kelly calculator here...82 % strike rate, 4% edge making 1.30 bets, with 5% commission(let's say)...correct Kelly Stake should be 18% of your bank. If I understand the stats correctly...

i have started reading on kelly.. i am still skeptical of the whole hype around it but will give it a try.. do keep us updated on your progress snapper

THIS UNIT IS THE ESSENCE OF DR SLICER WOT HAS BEEN PRESERVED.

Save your're time and you're monet. If Kelly worked, the inventor would not be extrapolating theses about mathermaticques, he would be living it up in Barbados, relaxing around a pool being served Pina Coladas by dusky maidens.

With regard to hoarses-ITCANTBEDONE!

I hope this posting is of assistance.

This posting is being delivered by mechanical means from the essence of
Dr Slicer PhD MB BS B Pharm MRCVS DRCOG Cert BhD

Slicer,
Mr. Kelly would disagree...but he, unfortunately, collapsed on a New York street with a stroke without ever using his theory. There you go...I guess the lesson is, don't put it off. Go for it.

Ocean,
Careful with the Kelly Criterion. Perhaps best to scale it down to "half Kelly" of "quarter Kelly" stakes like some gamblers. I recommend a small bank and build it up, rather than have Mr Kelly de-leverage it for you.