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12 Jan 11
18:04
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08 Mar 03
How would i work out a figure for how low a horse has traded ie if a horse is backed at 7/1 (12.5%) and traded at 3/1 (25%), i think it would be true to say that horse has traded at 50% of the backed price. If so, what equation would you use to work that out? Obviously 12.5/25= 0.5x100=50%, but if the back price had been 8/1, that would be 11.11/25=0.44x100=44% which is less, which cant be right! Sorry for being dim but what am i doing wrong?
Any help much appreciated
Any help much appreciated
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On Betfair 7/1 is 8.0, 3/1 is 4.0
4.0/8.0 = .50
the second example would be 4.0/9.0 = .44
Both as you say.
The only thing is your own definition, if a horse started at 100 and comes into evens then you get 2.0%... it's less because it's traded at a SMALLER (Less) number!
In your mind you're thinking a smaller number means it's been backed less not more, or something. If you need to reverse the definition, just subtract the % from 100
4.0/8.0 = .50
the second example would be 4.0/9.0 = .44
Both as you say.
The only thing is your own definition, if a horse started at 100 and comes into evens then you get 2.0%... it's less because it's traded at a SMALLER (Less) number!
In your mind you're thinking a smaller number means it's been backed less not more, or something. If you need to reverse the definition, just subtract the % from 100
Ok, think I know what you're trying to do.
You're trying to say "How much of this horse was backed"
So if it starts at 9.0 and comes into 4.0, then there's 44% of the price left, so 56% of it has been taken.
You're trying to say "How much of this horse was backed"
So if it starts at 9.0 and comes into 4.0, then there's 44% of the price left, so 56% of it has been taken.
Cheers Lori. What i'm trying to do is work out how many of my bets trade IR at less than 50% of backed price (and less than 25% etc). So equation would be 100-(backed price/traded price)....x100 for %age. Many thanks
You're mixing probabilities and odds, remember the probability is worked out using decimal odds where the stake's included whereas the odds don't include the stake. So for a horse to have traded half the odds of 7 (8's) it'd only need to hit 7/2 (4.5)
duncan idaho
Is this the sort of thing you're talking about?
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdEdVSzVuYXVMajZfSDk1NWdHeHhpbVE&hl=en&authkey=CK39idUF#gid=0
Is this the sort of thing you're talking about?
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdEdVSzVuYXVMajZfSDk1NWdHeHhpbVE&hl=en&authkey=CK39idUF#gid=0
If deep down you are asking how to consolidate Backs and Lays:
Assume you record Backs in Columns : Stake and Gross Return.
Then Lays can be integrated by thinking of them as Negative Backs.
eg
Back $100 @ $5
Lay $80 @ $4
Record:
100 500
-80 -320
Total is
20 160
So in effect your net is a $20 Back @ $8
Assume you record Backs in Columns : Stake and Gross Return.
Then Lays can be integrated by thinking of them as Negative Backs.
eg
Back $100 @ $5
Lay $80 @ $4
Record:
100 500
-80 -320
Total is
20 160
So in effect your net is a $20 Back @ $8
how has horse traded at 50% of back price..7/1 to 3/1 is a 4 point difference(50% would be 7/2)..divide the difference by original price..4/7=57.14%.......5/8=62.5%..forget probability percentages.. keep it simple....:-))))))))))))))))))))))))
Thanks for the help....much appreciated. Yeah, that's the sort of thing i'm looking for top2rated...what calculation are you using to arrive at the %IPMIN
duncan idaho
You can see for yourself; probably easier than me trying to post it here!
When you've got the spreadsheet in view just click on File and then move cursor down to Download as and take your pick.
Save it and look at it at your leisure.
You can see for yourself; probably easier than me trying to post it here!
When you've got the spreadsheet in view just click on File and then move cursor down to Download as and take your pick.
Save it and look at it at your leisure.
Good man, top2. It's just aswell i'm better at punting than with maths, Excel etc or i'd be ****ed! All the best
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