Laying - how close to ISP do you need to be on average?

the average price of favs is 8% to 10% higher on exchanges..laying as close to isp is vital to longterm profit...doing this on favs or horses below 4.1 makes a lot more sense as it keeps liabilities down but be prepared for 33% of lays winning over the longterm..i tend to try and lay between 5% and 10% below betfair prices just b4 the off and hope to b matched in running..over a year last year i was matched on 89% of my bets...i also lay to liability if a horse is odds on and keep it to level stakes from 2.0 upwards..always look to lay as close to bookie prices as possible..i make it a point to lay exactly to industry prices 5 secs b4 off(with aid of bot)..if i dont get matched nothing lost nothing gained...of course not been matched means u do loss out but over time this wont matter to much..assume 5% commission which can also be brought down over time and u will find it pays to keep things tight..manage ur risks and wat u save on losers will be profit in long term...u can compare isp to betfair returns on www.adrianmassey.com..it makes for scary reading esp over time..oh to be a bookie ...the best of both worlds..
returns on favs(includ joint fav) to betfair sp to 1£ stakes in 2011 +38pts
returns at isp +22pts
favs running at 40% strike rate at moment..very high but this will settle down..if layin this would be minus of course..my losses run at -11 at moment only because i layed a 1.2 and a 1.10 to liability and they both got beat..great when it happens..u have to take a long term approach and stick with it the rest will fall into place..when u get ahead which could take months u wont mind the bad days and by layin this way a bad day isnt so bad...been down 11 pts with 40% favs winning is not so bad.(its brill).when we hit 33% of favs winning the value u got through the weeks kicks in...try asking for 5 steps below betfair odds just before the off..u will b surprised how often u will get matched esp over jumps..and get used to lays winning haha....hope this helps...keep it simple keep it pro...

if i dont get matched nothing lost nothing gained...of course not been matched means u do loss out but over time this wont matter to much

I think it does matter a great deal Ykick, because the one you miss will always lose, a winning bet missed and that makes all the difference over time. In it's simplest form, laying evens shots at say 1.9, win one, lose one etc is fine, but win one, lose one, miss one, lose one, would erode any edge.  That's why I think it's better to lay the top 3 -10% and cancel when one is matched, that way you'll always get a match. What do you think about that?

Trevh - I don't agree that "the one you miss will always lose", in my opinion it will even out so missing a bet is not a big deal.

i agree totally with wat u r saying treh..every lay bet unmatched is an obvious loser...i have gone throught 1000's of results in the timeform database and believe every horse trades at least 8% shorter in running at some stage of a race..i try and take advantage of this and yes i do miss winning bets but not a whole lot to make a huge difference..i factor in the fact that i will miss these bets..i hav one way of at least getting some of my stake matched and thats by spreading my stake over the 10% underneath the betfair price with the most money going on the shortest price and least going on longest price...ie if a horse is 4.o on betfair instead of laying it at 3.5 to £20 i will lay £4 at 3.8...£6 at 3.6 and maybe £10 at 3.5 or 3.4...by doing this i have a better chance of been matched on at least one bet...this makes more sense than hoping to b matched to full stake at 3.5..i think we r all surprised at how short horses trade in running sometimes..of course knowing a horse always trades shorter in running is good..so running style is important..i consider each bet i make as a value bet or i would sink...i went shopping the other day and went into a shop i had never been in b4..i noticed straight away that the value in this shop was way better than others..i noticed the usual brand of fish food i buy was £2.99 but i had been buying it at the pet store for £5.99 this past few months..this is a small example of shoppin for value..we all do it in our everyday lives and i am just transfering that way of thinkin into my betting...which shop would u buy ur fish food...)))))i think i know the answer...

The odd paragraph might help.

i thought you were asking about distance from the phone exchange for internet speed issues!

Waynebrayn, assuming you're not fishing, the one you miss will always lose, that's not open to debate it's just a fact.

Ykick, I like the idea of staggering the lays, makes sense.

Trevh, I suspect that wayne may have missed the fact that ykick allows his unmatched lay bets to go in-running. Nevertheless, it is not entirely correct to state that 'the ones you miss will always lose'.

It would be possible for a horse not to trade at or below the ISP on bf during the course of a race and yet win the race. An example could be a horse that finishes second, having at no point seriously challenged for the lead, being unexpectedly awarded the win due to an infringement of the rules by the jockey of the first past the post. I don't follow racing closely but I would imagine this has probably happened, albeit very rarely, in the past.

I would acknowledge that the ones you miss will lose on the vast majority of occasions.

Trevh - sorry, jt45 is right, missed the in running part.  I only place bets pre-off, so if they don't match it's just a missed opportunity, no big deal, move on to next event.

All depends on your filters and price bands.  Could be profit at 110% of SP with the right ones.  Some of my filters get the average down to 105% and even lower but the number of matches drops by 3/4.  But if the rest is churn its worth it.  Laying sure has fine margins to work within.

.i have gone throught 1000's of results in the timeform database and believe every horse trades at least 8% shorter in running at some stage of a race

This cannot be correct.

It is 100% incorrect Visionary. A significant number of horses are not matched at any point below their Betfair SP.

TREVH....i stagger a lot esp at weekends..haha
the visionary
this is correct esp over jumps..we do our research here...this is an average figure of course..i happen to think its higher..:-0but wa t do i know..u better start checking timeform results..this info becomes apparent over time...i would even say the big price horses always trade shorter over long distances..a good example is the first at leicester yesterday...the price under the trainers sir name is betfair sp and the price next to their first name is in running lowest price hit...eg bun oir 436.85-----low 6.0..scroll down to the bigger priced horses...backing these horses to small stakes and trying to lay off in running is not a bad situation assuming u get the lay matched...
1    Non Dom (IRE)  5  11-5   Jamie Moore

Hughie Morrison
  7.60  -  4.90  4.33  11%  1.81 
2   3¼  Clowance House  5  11-5   Aidan Coleman

Venetia Williams
  -  1.50  5  5  −5%  1.95 
3   4  Bit Of a Clown (IRE)  5  11-5   Andrew Thornton

Caroline Bailey
  -  6  436.85  101  314%  36 
4   16  Bun Oir (USA)  4  10-7   Andrew Tinkler

Charlie Longsdon
  -  3.65  7.20  6.50  7%  2.38 
5   12  Goodtimetoby (IRE)  8  11-5   Charlie Poste

Richard Lee
  -  4.30  205.85  101  95%  34 
6   10  Peqeno Diablo (IRE)  6  11-7   Ian Popham

Claire Dyson
  -  18  46  34  30%  8.2 
7   ½  Kilcommon Pride (IRE)  6  11-5   Hadden Frost

Roger Curtis
  -  100  264.94  126  101%  44 
8   2¾  Ezdiyaad (IRE)  7  11-5  t  Leighton Aspell

Kevin Morgan
  -  4.10  10  8.50  14%  3.05 
9   49  Any Given Moment (IRE)  5  11-5   Jason Maguire

Donald Mccain
  -  3.85  3.89  3.75  −0%  1.57 
10   8  Mandalay Prince  7  11-5   Timmy Murphy

Willie Musson
  -  220  293.71  101  178%  36 
P

now now homer ur slightly exaggerating there...if ur first bet is matched and ur second bet is in and waiting to be matched and it hits ur asking price be it back to lay or lay to back it will be matched....if it was a fact that some bets weren,t matched then it would be 99% matched 1% unmatched..a good bot would never miss the price u asked for when runner  hits that price...not my one anyway..and the key is to put both bets in be it back first or lay first...once race is off it becomes difficut to compete manually against bots..they are to fast for u to react...do u use a bot homer:-))

i have gone throught 1000's of results in the timeform database and believe every horse trades at least 8% shorter in running at some stage of a race

ykickamoocow - I was simply pointing out that this statement of yours above is not true, based on the Timeform data that you are referring to. Every horse does not trade at least 8% shorter than it's starting price in running, bot or no bot. And, if you are laying below SP then you will be matched on all horses that go on to win the race but you may not be matched on every horse that loses.

Take the very first race of today at Doncaster. The horses in 13th and 14th place were not matched below their SP's, according to the Timeform data. I haven't checked beyond the first race, but I have 24,000 races in my database and a significant number did not trade below their SP in running.

What is ISP?

So what's the difference between that and SP?

ykick -p- stop telling bloody lies - you have no edge at all

HOMER J....i always have an edge...edges come and go...we move on...if ur trading the right horses 8% is trivial...i am only interested in horses at top end of market..not 600/1 outsiders who will never travel through a race which u have used as an example...i am saying overall average(not everyhorse) of 8% trade short not individual horses..the donny horses were 632 and 92.29...i am sure u can do better than that..in the same race(12.35 doncaster) the other 12 horses traded shorter.....i work on overall averages mayb u should do the same:-)))

Good, glad to see you admit that EVERY horse trades 8% lower in running was nothing more than horse sh*t