General Betting
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LAYING horses on the last thread has been very COSTLY experience.
Therefore, as I want to concentrate on BACKING only in WIN and PLACE markets, I am going to start a new thread today where I -
1. Use the KELLY CALCULATOR and
2. Restrict my selection to 1 horse in races where I feel there is a strong chance to WIN or PLACE.
I need to decide the PLACE part of using KC...................and won't always back to PLACE, as sometimes a horse will either WIN .......and if jockey etc etc does not believe it can win ....might not PLACE.
Just for last 3 months totals have been....on other thread
Period:
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(relates to event settlement date)
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
Horse Racing: -£2,668.72 | Soccer: £3,222.40 | Tote: | Total P&L: £553.68
SOCCER bets subsidising HORSE LAY losses...................
£4,000 was lost on HORSES due to LAY HITS over 4 days ......3 of those days when circumstances were very disrupted due to close family illness.......and because I probably am OVER STAKING liabilities on LAYS.
From now on, hopefully, I will be helped by using the KC.....and if I have sufficient edges on HORSES re BACKING......then the profits should be made over course of year.
G M the noooooooooooooooooooo
STARTING BANK will be £ 3,272.39.
Therefore, as I want to concentrate on BACKING only in WIN and PLACE markets, I am going to start a new thread today where I -
1. Use the KELLY CALCULATOR and
2. Restrict my selection to 1 horse in races where I feel there is a strong chance to WIN or PLACE.
I need to decide the PLACE part of using KC...................and won't always back to PLACE, as sometimes a horse will either WIN .......and if jockey etc etc does not believe it can win ....might not PLACE.
Just for last 3 months totals have been....on other thread
Period:
Download to Spreadsheet
?
(relates to event settlement date)
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)
Horse Racing: -£2,668.72 | Soccer: £3,222.40 | Tote: | Total P&L: £553.68
SOCCER bets subsidising HORSE LAY losses...................
£4,000 was lost on HORSES due to LAY HITS over 4 days ......3 of those days when circumstances were very disrupted due to close family illness.......and because I probably am OVER STAKING liabilities on LAYS.
From now on, hopefully, I will be helped by using the KC.....and if I have sufficient edges on HORSES re BACKING......then the profits should be made over course of year.
G M the noooooooooooooooooooo
STARTING BANK will be £ 3,272.39.
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As using the KC is pretty time-consuming.....will just try to use it for PLACE betting only...initially til I get used to it etc.
I suspect my lay-out for posting is pretty awful.....so using 12.40 race as a test.... KELLY CALCULATOR FOR PLACE MARKET STAKE PLACE COMMISSION PLACING IMPLIED % OF ODDS RATE ACTUAL PROBABILITY HORSE Betting bank AVAILABLE USED ODDS ODDS BANK STAKE Kings Story 3272 1.84 5% 1.798 56% 1.7857 0.86% 28.21 |
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It will have to do for now....................
What I will do is put 20% of PLACE STAKE on the win odds...near the off. G M the noooooooooooooooooooo |
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Its a shame you arent posting on the other thread, as I am sure there are a few people who were making money just following your backing selections (I wasnt BTW just following out of intrest)
However, needs must, so best of luck this with this new approach. Jon |
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Hi jonny40. Thanks for your post.
Unfortunately I was awake most of last night due to a close family member being ill . So have had little sleep and am quite knackered......but at least the family member is relieved of pain and sleeping after a visit from doctor in early hours of morning. "Problem" is manageable.....hopefully. Not sure if my brain will be up to this way of betting today ......or whether I will have time to post ( depends how things go today re family member)............BUT WILL TRY TO. This thread should be "better" as I will be concentrating on only ONE horse in selected races and my STAKING should be far better using KELLY CALCULATOR.( not ad-libbing on staking .....and more controlled from race to race) The horse above has already shortened to 1.70 in PLACE market ( BACKED at 1.84) and also shortened in WIN market to 4.80 ( was around 5.60 last night) . therefore I have already lost out....probably on WIN odds by delaying the bet in WIN market.......[b]so I WON'T BE BACKING IT TO WIN WITH THIS SELECTION.....AS VALUE HAS GONE!. I'd better go do some household chores etc etc GL with bets. |
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DFC forget laying thats for bookies who can balance their books at or near the off any bet they dont like they fire it off to Betfair you cannt do that .
The way to go is win and place . zip plays win and place 1 point win 6 points place . even 15/8 shots who run 2nd or 3rd show a profit now when you move onto 4/1 5/1 7/1 up to 10/1 you are in clover Over 10/1 pay with a smile |
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Cheers zipper......It is a "logical" step for me ...as my LAYING is far too "uncontrolled" re STAKING and selections of race type.......
Focusing on BACKS only will be far easier to do....... As PLACE betting using KELLY C I have not tried before.......estimating as accurately as possible the probability of a horse PLACING and coming up with % is something not done before.....so probably better I focus on PLACE bets IF VALUE.....and I will take a SHORT-CUT re any WIN STAKES I do by just betung 20% of PLACE STAKES....which is not too far off what you do etc etc Cheers again. HOW DO YOU CANCEL A BF SP BET PLACED??????? ANY IDEA???? PERHAPS YOU CAN'T UNTIL THE OFF?? |
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Kings Story might still have a bit of value at 4.7..
Raki Rose at 5.3 with form that reads FP-PPP... hmmmm...? and place at 2.28 to back might be worth a punt? Very weak race, Jacardo w/p my pick, not putting the house on it though! Back to the hospital this afternoon, good luck with this method DFC. |
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Cheers J ......
Looks like I'm stuck with the BF SP bet ...as CANNOT CANCEL IT APPARENTLY til off ...???? If I could cancel it ...I would ...as i don't consider odds now VALUE in WIN market J.....just opinion though. I'd better go grab some food....as da still not well and need to help out a bit etc etc Gl at hospital J |
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Dfc at S/p you cannot cancel .. its for guys who have not the time to be on here all day place a bet say £50 bet at 9.00am on the 3.10 at mickey mouse land get on with your job come 5.30 see how it ran win lose or draw you got the right price cause at the off s/p is the only price in town .
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you cannot cancel a bf sp bet even after the off
the only thing you can do is to place a corresponding bet the other way |
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PLACE COMMISSION PLACING IMPLIED % OF
RACE ODDS RATE ACTUAL PROBABILITY TIME HORSE Betting bank AVAILABLE USED ODDS ODDS BANK STAKE 12:50 BEST KNOWN SECRET 3272 3 5% 2.9 34% 2.8571 0.79 25.83 |
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A WIN BET
WIN PLACE COMMISSION PLACING IMPLIED % OF RACE ODDS ODDS RATE ACTUAL PROBABILITY TIME HORSE AVAILABLE Betting bank AVAILABLE USED ODDS ODDS BANK STAKE 01:20 BENATO THE GREAT 2.22 3219 5% 2.159 47 2.1277 1.27% 40.91 |
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giving Punching another chance in that one, Benato should be thereabouts.
Got my times wrong, don't have to be at the hosp. till 3.. time for a break then [;)] |
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Knew I should have backed Psycho... (my old cat's name).. I reckon I've bought that horse the number of times I've backed him before!
Left the race alone  |
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Hayley
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WD J
 .............glad you got it!!!Still half awake ...but will continue for a wee while...... WIN PLACE COMMISSION PLACING IMPLIED % OF RACE ODDS ODDS RATE ACTUAL PROBABILITY TIME HORSE AVAILABLE Betting bank AVAILABLE USED ODDS ODDS BANK STAKE 01:40 RESTER VRAI 4.3 5% 4.135 25% 4 1% 34.49 |
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Put £6 on in win market as well on last one.
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I suspect my BRAIN ain't working well today ...AGAIN.......MAKING CHOICES THAT ARE DUBIOUS AND GETTING PROBABILITIES WRONG.........
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WILL TRY ONE MORE BET ...THEN , IF LOSES ( AGAIN) WILL JUST DO SMALLER STAKES BETS WHILST I AM FEELING KNACKERED...
WIN PLACE COMMISSION PLACING IMPLIED % OF RACE ODDS ODDS RATE ACTUAL PROBABILITY TIME HORSE AVAILABLE Betting bank AVAILABLE USED ODDS ODDS BANK STAKE 02:40 LERIDA 2.5 5% 2.425 43% 2.3256 3% 93.72 STUCK A WIN BET ON TO FOR £10 |
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TRY ANOTHER WIN BET
WIN PLACE COMMISSION PLACING IMPLIED % OF RACE ODDS ODDS RATE ACTUAL PROBABILITY TIME HORSE AVAILABLE Betting bank AVAILABLE USED ODDS ODDS BANK STAKE 03:20 CARAMELITA 3.5 5% 3.375 32% 3.125 3.37 102.7 |
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If both above bets LOSE ....will only betting 25% of KELLY STAKES........til I get my selections and probabilities more accurate.................
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WILL TRY A PLACE BET IN 2.50 RACE I ALSO HAVE A SMALL COVER PLACE BET FOR THE STAKES ON ALMAHAZA FOR £12
WIN PLACE COMMISSION PLACING IMPLIED % OF RACE ODDS ODDS RATE ACTUAL PROBABILITY TIME HORSE AVAILABLE Betting bank AVAILABLE USED ODDS ODDS BANK STAKE 02:50 CHEZ VRONY 2946 5% 4.3 25% 4.135 1.08% 32.82 I got better odds than 4.3.....got 5/5.1 roughly ....by time put bet on after calculations. |
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161 back with LERIDA winning ...managed to lay off some of stakes in WIN and PLACE markets to guarantee a profit if fell etc............
At last a return.  |
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Was £147.69 down before that winner....so now into small profit.
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Sorry "guys" ...zipper and swift-tuttle......thanks for posts re CANCEL bets on BF SP etc
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Behind again after 2.50 race...................small field race ..and was a race shape I did not like ....should not have touched....idle hands and all that!
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3.00 no time for KELLY for this race
3.00 UAE / Meydan (UAE) 6th Jan / 15:00 6f Hcap Indian Skipper Back 06-Jan-11 14:59 4.8 4.00 4.8 06-Jan-11 14:59 UAE / Meydan (UAE) 6th Jan / 15:00 6f Hcap Ab Include Back 06-Jan-11 14:59 11 6.00 11 06-Jan-11 14:59 UAE / Meydan (UAE) 6th Jan / 15:00 To Be Placed Ab Include Back 06-Jan-11 14:59 3.3 24.00 3.4 06-Jan-11 14:59 |
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UAE / Meydan (UAE) 6th Jan / 15:00 6f Hcap Very Far Back 13235820451 06-Jan-11
15:02 26 2.00 27 06-Jan-11 15:02 UAE / Meydan (UAE) 6th Jan / 15:00 To Be Placed Very Far Back 13235815551 06-Jan-11 15:02 7.8 6.00 8.17 06-Jan-11 15:02 |
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As I am not used to staking such high amounts on HORSE WIN bets.....I have set a lay IR on
Caramelita........................to try to at least save the stake if runs well....... I might cancel this LAY IR ...if going well............... |
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ALSO DID SOME SFCS COVER BETS...
Forecast Betting / Sthl (F/C) 6th Jan / 15:20 Forecast 4 - 3 Back 06-Jan-11 15:18 9.6 9.00 9.71 06-Jan-11 15:18 Forecast Betting / Sthl (F/C) 6th Jan / 15:20 Forecast 2 - 3 Back 06-Jan-11 15:17 9.6 3.00 9.73 06-Jan-11 15:17 Forecast Betting / Sthl (F/C) 6th Jan / 15:20 Forecast 2 - 3 Back 06-Jan-11 15:17 9.6 12.00 9.6 06-Jan-11 15:17 Forecast Betting / Sthl (F/C) 6th Jan / 15:20 Forecast 1 - 3 Back 06-Jan-11 15:16 15 9.00 15.11 06-Jan-11 15:16 |
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£130 PROFIT OFF CARAMELITA RACE..........PUTS ME AHEAD
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HAD I LEFT BET ALONE...WOULD HAVE BEEN £256 PROFIT BEFORE COMMISSION ON RACE.............AGHHHHHH
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No more races attractive enough for me ................Will post results later.
Cheers the nooooooooooooo |
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DAY 1 - THURSDAY ...USING KELLY CALCULATOR..
Horse Racing: £37.34 | Tote: | Total P&L: £37.34 Horse Racing Showing 1 - 14 of 14 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Sthl (F/C) 6th Jan : Forecast 06-Jan-11 15:20 06-Jan-11 15:24 -36.00 Horse Racing / Sthl 6th Jan : 5f Hcap 06-Jan-11 15:20 06-Jan-11 15:23 160.64 Horse Racing / Meydan (UAE) 6th Jan : To Be Placed 06-Jan-11 15:00 06-Jan-11 15:18 -30.00 Horse Racing / Meydan (UAE) 6th Jan : 6f Hcap 06-Jan-11 15:00 06-Jan-11 15:17 -12.00 Horse Racing / Sthl 6th Jan : To Be Placed 06-Jan-11 14:50 06-Jan-11 14:54 -44.82 Horse Racing / Sthl 6th Jan : 1m Hcap 06-Jan-11 14:50 06-Jan-11 14:54 -8.00 Horse Racing / Hunt 6th Jan : To Be Placed 06-Jan-11 14:40 06-Jan-11 14:51 109.80 Horse Racing / Hunt 6th Jan : 2m Hcap Chs 06-Jan-11 14:40 06-Jan-11 14:51 45.41 Horse Racing / Hunt 6th Jan : To Be Placed 06-Jan-11 13:40 06-Jan-11 13:48 -34.09 Horse Racing / Hunt 6th Jan : 2m4f Hcap Chs 06-Jan-11 13:40 06-Jan-11 13:48 -6.00 Horse Racing / Sthl 6th Jan : 6f Hcap 06-Jan-11 13:20 06-Jan-11 13:24 -40.91 Horse Racing / Sthl 6th Jan : To Be Placed 06-Jan-11 12:50 06-Jan-11 12:54 -32.84 Horse Racing / Hunt 6th Jan : To Be Placed 06-Jan-11 12:40 06-Jan-11 12:50 -28.21 Horse Racing / Hunt 6th Jan : 3m2f Hcap Hrd 06-Jan-11 12:40 06-Jan-11 12:50 -5.64. ===================================================================================== 2 WINNERS ...LERIDA and CARAMELITA where I used the SELECTIVE APPROACH AND KELLY CALCULATOR......so if you deduct MEYDAN bets £42 above....then on KELL BETS etc made £ 79.34....from 6 races. Had I not chickened out the full bet on CARAMELITA ....another £120 profit would have been made. Will take me time to get used to HIGHER STAKING on HORSES as BACKS../....just not used to that.....but KELLY CALCULATOR hepls alot re STAKING. Cheers the noooooooooooooo |
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Some more information re DAY 1 selections
STAKE WIN PLACE % OF ODDS ODDS WIN PLACE DFC DFC BANK STAKE BF SP BF SP OBTAINED OBTAINED 0.86% 28.21 NP XXXXXX XXXXXX XXXXXX XXXXXX Kings Story 0.79 25.83 NP XXXXXX XXXXXX XXXXXX XXXXXX BEST KNOWN SECRET 1.27% 40.91 NP XXXXXX XXXXXX XXXXXX XXXXXX BENATO THE GREAT 1% 34.49 NP XXXXXX XXXXXX XXXXXX XXXXXX RESTER VRAI 3% 93.72 1ST 11-2 6.89 2.2 8.6 2.54 LERIDA 3.37 102.7 1ST 3-1 4.6 2.08 3.5 N/A CARAMELITA 1.08% 32.82 NP XXXXXX XXXXXX XXXXXX XXXXXX CHEZ VRONY Interesting that my % of BANK being used increased on BOTH WINNERS............of course some people would say that I was CHASING .......whereas i would say that they were STRONGER BETS...............  |
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The 93.72 was the PLACE STAKE on LERIDA ....as i only put £10 on to win
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I forgot about WOLVERHAMPTON races....as got distracted a bit ...so will try some
WIN PLACE COMMISSION PLACING IMPLIED % OF RACE ODDS ODDS RATE ACTUAL PROBABILITY TIME HORSE AVAILABLE Betting bank AVAILABLE USED ODDS ODDS BANK STAKE 05:40 KIAMA BAY 3333 2.14 5% 2.083 49% 2.0408 1.91% 63.61 Just using AVAILABLE BANK on calc Not sure re WIN bet so leaving alone. |
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Interesting it is now 2nd fav a wee bit ...was 3rd fav ..............
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PROFIT £ 72.52 OFF THE PLACE BEFORE COMMISSION ON KIAMA BAY ......Aghhhhhhhhhhhhhh never backed it to win!
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