General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
05 Jan 11
12:14
Joined:
Date Joined:
22 Mar 04
Daily selections on the horses;
Comparison between £10 level stakes and
a progressive staking system based on winning/losing days
Settled at Betfair SP with 5% comm
Today's selections:
Bellvano (GER) 12:40:00 Southwell
Earth Magic (IRE) 13:10:00 Southwell
Daldini 13:40:00 Southwell
Phoenix Des Mottes (FR) 13:40:00 Southwell
River Rhapsody (IRE) 14:40:00 Southwell
Caprio (IRE) 17:05:00 Kempton
£10 on each for both systems to start with
Comparison between £10 level stakes and
a progressive staking system based on winning/losing days
Settled at Betfair SP with 5% comm
Today's selections:
Bellvano (GER) 12:40:00 Southwell
Earth Magic (IRE) 13:10:00 Southwell
Daldini 13:40:00 Southwell
Phoenix Des Mottes (FR) 13:40:00 Southwell
River Rhapsody (IRE) 14:40:00 Southwell
Caprio (IRE) 17:05:00 Kempton
£10 on each for both systems to start with
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 51
|
By:
I think Lori did his best to point out that this has already been done by Schalke. But hey feel free to post whatever you please.
Could you please add a starting bank, I'm curiuos? |
|
By:
Starting bank £3000
Rules for progressive staking: Once a stake has been established, that stake will apply for each of the daily selections; The default daily stake will be £10 per selection and the system will start at this point; If a loss has been incurred in total for the day, the daily stake will increase by £2 for the next day's selections; If a profit has been made in total for the day, the daily stake will either revert to the default of £10 if the system is in profit overall or it will revert to the level of staking that is particular to the total loss of the losing run currently engaged in. Comparisons, P/L will be shown after each day. |
|
By:
Level staking isn't utilising the bank when/if it grows, and the progressive method sounds like Martingaling.
Why not stake to 0.5% of the days starting bank? |
|
By:
Because that would be a different system.
It is a staking plan that I've considered but I don't like the sound of it because your stakes would go up as the result of a winning run. |
|
By:
Why do you need £3000 ?
Today you needed £60 |
|
By:
Also, the approach is built for chasing losses.
|
|
By:
swift-tuttle:
It is a staking plan that I've considered but I don't like the sound of it because your stakes would go up as the result of a winning run. That's when the stakes should go up (and reduce with a losing run), I wouldn't want to be increasing during a losing run. Run the profits, cut the losses. GL anyway. |
|
By:
By using a % of the bank, the average stake on losers
will always be higher than on winners. Increasing after losers brings the peril of the losing run. You pay your money and take your pick. |
|
By:
I don't think he wants to listen really. We should best let him do it and see it for himself. Experience is the best reference here imo.
|
|
By:
kenilworth :
By using a % of the bank, the average stake on losers will always be higher than on winners. I use a % of bank because I want my stake to increase in proportion to the bank. Can you expand on losers carrying a greater stake? I think you mean if you increase the stake after each bet, rather than daily/weekly. I adjust my stake first bet every Monday morning and it stays the same till last bet Sunday evening, losers don't carry greater stakes as far as I can see. |
|
By:
Todays results:
1 winner @ 4.6 = +34.20 (level) +34.20 (prog) 1 non-runner = 0.00 4 losers = -40.00 (level) -40.00 (prog) P/L: level -5.80 prog -5.80 Stakes for tomorrows sels: level 10.00 prog 12.00 |
|
By:
Trevh, whether you increase/decrease after each bet or weekly/daily, unless you
don't have any losing weeks, and your bank just increases, then your average stake must be on the losing week(s). simple example WLWLWL, stake/bank rises after W, drops after L etc, or am I missing something ? I'm not saying that you would lose, just that the average stake on losers would be higher.GL |
|
By:
CAPRIO won by a BITE
  .....looks like anything goes ST re horse racing and stewards Put in to emmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm |
|
By:
DFC sorry to see that Caprio was a bad result for you
As regards what happened during the race, I don't watch the races, only interested in the results |
|
By:
Swift Tuttle
Why do you adjust daily ? One day you might have 20 bets, another day many less ? Shouldn't the number of bets made at least make a difference to the amt. and timing of any adjustment. Doesn't matter really, as Kef4o said earlier, you need to experience the inevitable pain built into your " system". Just another small point ST, do you really think that your idea is so original that it has never been tested out before ( with a resultant inevitable cumulative loss I might add) ? I'm afraid to say that you're going to have be just a little bit cleverer than this to be successful in gambling long term. Btw I do happen to think that staking is more important than pricing, but in a much more complex manner than is being discussed on here. |
|
By:
Yes I see what you're saying Ken, but for one method I use I average around 106 wins against 94 losses per week, so the growth keeps the stake growing rather than level staking and not utilising the bank.
|
|
By:
FAFH
I take your point about adjusting daily, the reason I do that is because after looking at my bet history I find that it is very rare for me to have a losing run of more than 10 days. As for the rest of your post, I'm just trying to test out my ideas. I'm not frightened of failing so it doesn't matter, the 'inevitable pain' of losing £3,000 is not actually going to hurt that much. |
|
By:
100 says that if did it with real money you'd get bored by the fifth long loing run, provided you survived it. Bettin 10 quid when you have 3000, what are you, a pension fund?
|
|
By:
kef4o
If you say that you're only testing with real money, why would you bet with larger amounts. You can always go bigger if and when your test is successful. What are you, Midas ? |
|
By:
No, my point is different. Yes, this is a test. But it is supposed to simulate the real thing. Now, if you were to start with 3000 would you really be betting 10 pounds per selection? I can see it being the case with 1000 but 3000...come on, especially when, as I understand it, there will be no gradual growth of the stakes.
|
|
By:
you could try reading the posts
Rules for progressive staking: Once a stake has been established, that stake will apply for each of the daily selections; The default daily stake will be £10 per selection and the system will start at this point; If a loss has been incurred in total for the day, the daily stake will increase by £2 for the next day's selections; If a profit has been made in total for the day, the daily stake will either revert to the default of £10 if the system is in profit overall or it will revert to the level of staking that is particular to the total loss of the losing run currently engaged in. |
|
By:
Well, I'll give you that, English is my second language, yet I've read this a few time now, and as I understand it, once you get back in the black, you start betting 10 quid again. Please, do tell if I'm wrong.
|
|
By:
No you're not wrong but I do have to cater for a losing run where the daily stakes will increase by £2 each day.
So after 6 losing days the daily stakes will be £22 for example and then even if a winning day is achieved, if the win does not wipe out the amount of the losing run currently engaged in, the stake will only revert to the stake appropriate to the total loss amount of the losing run. |
|
By:
That's the way I understood it. So, my point is, that no matter how much you win, you will not increase your starting stake of 10 quid. So 100 says, that if this were real money, you wouldn't be able to cope with it. My line stays at 5.5 losing runs of 10%+, even money.
And it's not just the lack of discipline, you'll eventually see how unrewarding it is. |
|
By:
I'm sorry but I think we are talking in different languages here. I think I'll just stop talking and record the results, then in time it may become clear, whichever way it goes.
|
|
By:
Swift tuttle
I think his point is quite correctly that if you never increase your underlying default amount above 10 quid, the system can hardly be called progressive staking. All semantics really. It won't work. Statistically it makes no sense and so long term must and will break down. But go ahead and try and waste some of your hard earned. It's your money let's face it. |
|
By:
swift-tuttle - have you ever used the KELLY CALCULATOR re STAKING etc......
This to me makes far more "sense" as the way to go re STAKING....betting more on more value, based on your edge, and less where the value is lower.... In fact I will be doing this tomorrow on races.....as need to avoid LAYING for a while and maximising bets on horses where they have strong chance to win/place...at value odds....etc etc I'll post a link for KC ....... GL whatever you do... http://seriousbet.com/calculators/kelly_staking |
|
By:
Daily selections:
Clan Tara (IRE) 13:05:00 Thurles Benato The Great (IRE) 13:20:00 Southwell Somewhatinevitable (IRE) 14:10:00 Huntingdon Cheney Manor 15:10:00 Huntingdon Faultless Feelings (IRE) 15:10:00 Huntingdon Little Carmela 15:10:00 Huntingdon Mister Chancer (IRE) 15:10:00 Huntingdon Magic Haze 15:50:00 Southwell Jambo Bibi (IRE) 17:10:00 Wolverhampton Kames Park (IRE) 17:40:00 Wolverhampton Corrib (IRE) 18:40:00 Wolverhampton Stakes:- 10.00 (level) 12.00 (prog) |
|
By:
DFC - I couldn't use Kelly because it requires a judgement on my part for one of the factors (i.e. the probability of the horse winning).
|
|
By:
FAFH - the daily stake on the progressive staking plan will increase in response to a losing day.
As it has done today. I thought that is what we meant by a test of progressive staking, chasing losses in other words. That is what I am testing and comparing it with level stakes. I can't make it any clearer than this. |
|
By:
Chasing losses.
Now we can all understand that. Why beat about the bush with all these fancy phrases such as " progressive staking". |
|
By:
ST - I'm sure with practice you would get stronger and stronger re assessing probabilities as accurately as possible....you certainly are getting stronger on nap selections S-T
KELLY CALCULATOR is a far better way to go than what you are doing here........it just is a more logical way to bet etc.... However, we all go through various TESTS on the road to enlightenment....So GL with thread.  |
|
By:
Todays results:
1 non-runner = 0.00 10 losers = -100.00 (level) -120.00 (prog) P/L: level -105.80 prog -125.80 Stakes for tomorrows sels: level 10.00 prog 14.00 |
|
By:
Daily selections:
Morcambe 13:50:00 Bangor Our Mick 13:50:00 Bangor Tecktal (FR) 14:00:00 Fontwell Goodtimetoby (IRE) 14:20:00 Bangor Bob Casey (IRE) 14:30:00 Fontwell Herald Angel (FR) 14:30:00 Fontwell Topless (IRE) 14:30:00 Fontwell Pure Anticipation (IRE) 14:50:00 Bangor Eastwell Smiles 15:20:00 Bangor Milo Milan (IRE) 15:50:00 Bangor Zefooha (FR) 18:40:00 Wolverhampton Join Up 19:10:00 Wolverhampton Stakes:- 10.00 (level) 14.00 (prog) |
|
By:
Todays results:
Bangor off, 6 selections void and 6 losers = -60.00 (level) -84.00 (prog) P/L: level -165.80 prog -209.80 Stakes for tomorrows sels: level 10.00 prog 16.00 |
|
By:
swift-tuttle, what has been your total exposure
for each method of betting (so far) / |
|
By:
Sure you aren't meant to be laying with this selection method you're using ?
|
|
By:
Daily selections:
General Kutuzov (IRE) 12:35:00 Chepstow Voramar Two 12:35:00 Chepstow Royal And Ancient (IRE) 13:10:00 Chepstow Sansili 13:15:00 Wincanton Usquaebach 13:30:00 Sandown Synchronised (IRE) 13:45:00 Chepstow Steel City Boy (IRE) 14:00:00 Lingfield Far More Serious (IRE) 14:05:00 Sandown Nicto De Beauchene (FR) 14:05:00 Sandown Consigliere (FR) 14:20:00 Chepstow Rivaliste (FR) 14:20:00 Chepstow Bouggler 14:25:00 Wincanton Rougham 14:25:00 Wincanton The Minack (IRE) 14:25:00 Wincanton Alhaban (IRE) 14:35:00 Lingfield Bravo Echo 14:35:00 Lingfield Another Kate (IRE) 14:50:00 Chepstow Liberty Green (IRE) 15:10:00 Lingfield Cornas (NZ) 15:15:00 Sandown Fiendish Flame (IRE) 15:15:00 Sandown Free World (FR) 15:15:00 Sandown Imsingingtheblues (IRE) 15:15:00 Sandown Mount Oscar (IRE) 15:30:00 Wincanton Stakes:- 10.00 (level) 16.00 (prog) |
|
By:
Todays results:
1 winner @ 6.97 = +56.71 (level) +90.74 (prog) 1 winner @ 8.8 = +74.10 (level) +118.56 (prog) 1 winner @ 2.32 = +12.54 (level) +20.06 (prog) 1 winner @ 7.8 = +64.60 (level) +103.36 (prog) 1 winner @ 2.9 = +18.05 (level) +28.88 (prog) 1 winner @ 18.54 = +166.63 (level) +266.61 (prog) 17 losers = -170.00 (level) -272.00 (prog) P/L: level +56.83 prog +146.42 Stakes for tomorrows sels: level 10.00 prog 10.00 |