Kelly doesn't really take care of the value DFC , you have to do that yourself with accurate ratings to convert to probablities. And if your ratings are out......

You are only overbetting them if your ratings are not correct

*space

I think the importance of staking correctly is overlooked by most.

With a single selection in an event and being accurate with your pricing it is hard to top "Kelly Criterion"

In my case where I either bet on or lay 60% of all runners, 'Kelly' is impracticable so I use overlay betting, betting to chances assessed.

If you are betting flat you are essentially giving very imilar importance to every bet you make. With Kelly, the way I see it regardless of how good your judgement is, you are done if a big value election fails to win. On a different note, essentially, only your big bets would really matter for the overall bank balance, so you don't even need to bet small.

In other words, using Kelly, you end up betting flat but too big of a percentage on all your big value plays and you mix it up with a few smaller bets.

there is no real answer to your question...i have a simple way of doing things....lay to bookmaker prices and back to betfair prices..
if your a layer of favourites then u hav to lay as close to bookie prices as possible..bookies prices trade about 8 to 9 % shorter on average over betfair prices..this is where ur profit will be in the long term..prices r key..i have noted that laying favs at level stakes to betfair prices leads to losses or breaking even... but laying to bookie prices leads to profit over time..how to lay to bookie prices u ask...????use a bot
bfmanager bot V2 offers u the option of layin any fav under its betfair price.the bet is put in unmatched of course e.g if the fav is 4.5 on betfair then the bot will lay it at 4.0 depending on steps below u set it to(it goes above as well if ur a backer)..i work at 5 steps below betfair prices 5 seconds before the off and always get matched in running..i have asked makers of bot to give me a percentage option which will work better across all price ranges(this is on the way)..the average return over each year is 10% profit on stakes:)))..just by doing this to 10 euro stake yielded over 400 pts profit in 2010...2011 has started with favs winning 39% of races which is bad for fav layers and me haha..at betfair odds to 1 pound level stakes u would be down 26 pts but to bookies odds u would be down 14pts i am down 16pts(i hav one unmatched bet in2011) and this is a bad run...but over time and with volume of bets i will get ahead..all these stats can be found at www.adrianmassey.com a brillant free stat site for serious backers or layers(...this rule applies to 2nd and 3rd favs also..the most profitable fav to back at betfair odds over the years is the 5th fav..it shows massive profit over time..
if u want to be sucessful at laying u hav to think like a bookie and offer no value at all.. be a scrooge,its ur money after all..lay under the odds and grind out the bad runs..i dont lay above 4.1..even when the fav is 6.0 i put a lay in at 4.1...u dont feel so bad if it wins as u still feel like u saved money...(this saved money will b ur profit at end of season...)
value is key... achieving it is hard work...
if u need any more advice i will happily reply..there is no hard and fast answers,,value, disipline and patience work best..oh and buy a bot like bfmanagerv2,,its vital and u dont need to sit in front of laptop all day..
i hope to do better with percentage option as 5 steps below at 4.5 (4.0) is different to 5 steps below at 2.o(1.95) because of betfairs decimal prices...
lol dodge
i

Nice write up ykickamoocow, a guy called BTO used to have a similar method but the chosen lay for each race would be selected by the first one to be matched after the off.

Do you have a comparison of profits for handicap versus non-handicap races?

hey trev,
i find handicaps more profitable overall...although as i lay to a minimum of 4.1 i dont really have a preference..the only races i avoid are ones with  no runners ha ha....i have used this method for a while and do very nicely out of it..i also run the maria laying system which bfbotmanagerV2 have built in to their V2bot..very handy indeed...its still the the best laying  system out there in my mind..and trev check out www.adrianmassey.com and click on fav statistics and then on custom report and u can find out any stat u want..and compare betfair odds on any fav(click betfair odds box at bottom) to industry odds on fav . and u will see where i am coming from very quickly....and today was a good laying day...haha

A system for picking winners is doomed (without proper consideration of value).

A system based on staking is doomed (if it has no other logic).

You need a system that can identify value coupled with a sensible staking plan to optimise winnings and protect against losing runs.

Why exactly are you describing your so called system in such great detail if it is such a winner ?
A bit self defeating I would suggest, if nothing else.
Oh I'm such a cynic I know
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

well its not exactly a system..its just common sense at end of day..getting value always feels good..we all do it while shopping.y not in our betting.and the maria system is well know by serious layers...no secrets there and we like to share the knowledge its hard enough to make it pay..
i hear so many ppl going on about systems..most of which r off the wall..keep it simple..u dont see the bookies throwing out all these systems to make money..they have one system and over time they make their money.when betfair first came online we all thought now i can be the bookie and finally make it pay etc etc.to be the bookie we must think like one.thats where we all need to be...the latest system i have read is find a horse who is fav between evs and 2/1 on racing post racecards..find the decimal difference between it and the 2nd fav and multiply it by the number of tipster who tip it...the one with the lowest score is the lay of the day...i could add another 50 like that..ur better off random picking horses.now theres a good system oh i am such a cynic:_000000000.haha

i agree with REM 100%..a good staking plan is half the battle after that its down to u..the maria laying system is a good example of a simple staking plan..i have run this plan for a while and even with the bot random picking the horses to lay it gets ahead longterm...and here it is the worst keep secret in laying history..this plan made the user 100000£ in under one year with a startin bank of 3000..all selections were posted on the morning of races on a managed forum..all selections were picked by user and i think the thread is still online somewhere,,,a great read

1.if price is below 3.5 use 1% of betting bank
2.if price is from 3.5 to 7.4 use 0.60% of bank
3. if price is from 7.5 to 11.0 use 0.40% of bank

stakes r increased on a daily basis,so if at the end of day betting bank has increased then new stakes r calculated for next day..if betting bank decreases then stakes stay the same and so on...
if 35% of bank is lost then plan is restarted again
if betting bank is 500 then stakes r £5 £3  £2
as i said before bfbotmanager v2bot has this system built into its bots and u can fine tune if u wanted...it layed 15 winning bets in a row yesterday and had 3 losers to 28 bets and this was random picking lays..i know if it stays around the 81.5% strike rate it will make money.it is currently running at 85.6% for 2011..early days but on track....
good luck ppl

Maria's staking plan is pretty sensible.  Low stakes compared to bank, and no chasing.  But there are a myriad of such systems you could invent along the same lines.  And if you are betting at value odds, they'll all make money, but at slightly different rates.  The more aggressive staking plans will be more profitable during good runs, but you'll lose more during the inevitable bad runs, and have a greater likelihood of losing most of your bankroll.  It's like investing in shares.  Riskier shares will give you a better return.

Maria did post her selections pre-off, but she aftertimed the odds she got.  I could randomly select horses to lay at BF prices, and if I said I'd managed to lay them at 5% under BF SP I'd probably have a winning system on my hands.

Yes theonlywayforward.
First understand the question before you try to answer.
And in HR that is totally beyond me.
But apparently it doesn't apply to all on here.
A certain few have come on here and have claimed, quite credibly, that they have programmed bots to react to price movements alone, and that they have neither any interest in or any understanding at all of the underlying sport related reasons for such movements.
The sport involved is essentially irrelevant.

you as the human(in my case anyway:-))) need to identify the value and implement a good staking plan with that value.limit ur liabilites and maximise ur profits.a bot cant do that for u..u have to input the info into it...ultimately the bot only bets on ur thinking and ur opinions ...bots r a great tool..but only if they r set up correctly by you and u let them alone.they take emotion out of betting which is a good thing..it comes down to u in the end..there is no right way or wrong way..the sport doesnt matter..the maria staking plan is sensible and thats why i use it but it isnt the perfect solution..it has bad days like all systems..if u can stick it out for the long haul u will be ok..i dont want to sound like a know it all because i am not and it took me a long time to get to where i am now and i had times when i could of said enough is enough....but i stuck with it..
even today a guy was interviewed from bluesquare at lingfield i think and they were offering one point extra on any winner u backed with them..that says a lot to me...if i did that to every lay i lost i would b loser.
sorry for going on..

ykickamoocow

Are you just a layer...or do you back as well???

The question posed in the OP is badly phrased as "picking winners" and "staking systems" are not mutually exclusive options.

As has been pointed out, picking "winners" can be done with a pin providing you are happy with the "losers" found by the same method.Without a "price" variable, picking winners is meaningless.

A staking plan is essential and should be based, in order of importance, on a) bank size c) chance of losing/winning  c) value.

The 2002 Nobel prize for Economics was won by some guys who drew some conclusions which a lot of posters should give some thought to:

1. Hindsight bias -the way in which a random sequence of events is given structure and narrative by the false perspective of looking back after the outcome

2. The Law of Small Numbesr referring to people's tendency to draw over-confident conclusions from small amounts of evidence

3. The "patterns" that people see in data often do not exist (my interpretation)

Above all, the future is unreliably determined by the past.

kenilworth, the original thread seems to be not available anymore, yet I think that this is a good summary of the essential info:

http://soccerchum.com/maria.php

kef4o

There's a typo in TSM's version of the Maria staking plan.....

# Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £30 (liability is always under £75 in this price range)
# Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £18 (liability is always between £46.80 - £115.20 in this price range)
# Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £12 (liability is always between £78 - £132 in this price range) 

- the second line should read "# Prices from 3.5 to 7.4:......"

I emailed them ages ago to tell them about it but they've never bothered to amend it.

Tobermory, ykick's whole method relies on getting matched in play on every bet. He lays 5 ticks below the price at the off, so a 3.5 fave would be laid in running at 3.25.

The obvious question is, does that really represent value? The in running boys watching the race aren't mugs, and if they back the fave in to 3.25 from 3.5 you would expect there to be a reason, but if Ykick made 400 points profit 09/10, it would appear not.

The in play method used by BTO was similar, but he would cancel the lay if unmatched after 10 - 20 seconds in play, depending on race length, as the longer you leave the lay up the more accurate the price will be when it's matched, and you're not laying at value.

Any thoughts from other posters? The question is, does laying in running at start price minus 10%, represent value or not? To my mind you would simply be laying at the correct price, unless the horse is backed in for no reason.

Typo well spotted top2rated.

Horses IR is a different world. It' like the cocaine of gambling. I've also seen a few dog races IR, basically they were the purest form imo.

Is there value? I suspect there is, mostly b/c it's the only sport that I can think of where 10-20 seconds before the end of an event you can have two outcomes being traded at odds on simultaniouly. I don't see a reason why IR traders should be given vradit that they are that much better at assessing a race during its beginning.