guaranteed price - how big an advantage is it?

2 possible scenarios:

1) take the price, price shortens and SP is lower than your price
2) take the price, price drifts and SP is higher than your price

In the case of 1) this is no different to taking an early price.
In the case of 2) you are on a drifter at SP


So, the whole business of guaranteed prices is nothing special and the bookmaker is not giving away that much.

The biggest problem with taking a price early is the R4 deduction. This has got worse over the years so you also need to work out:

1) How many of your bets are subject to R4.
2) Overall does an R4 deduction benefit the bookie or the punter.

Phil, of course r4 benefits the bookie, but you will be subject to r4 even if price is not guaranteed so your post is irrelevant.

Swift, in the case of scenario 2 this makes a difference in the long run, and I want to estimate how much higher our expected returns are by getting guaranteed prices as opposed to not having a guaranteed price.
of course scenario 1 is also included when estimating how much our expected returns are increased by.

So we need to estimate firstly how many horses fall into category 2 if we back a horse 2/3 hours before the race and the price we get does not differ too much from the price on here, and secondly how much this increases our expected return by on average.

ttt

r4 benefits the bookie? You cannot be serious?

rule 4 crieria changes monday 10/1, in favour of



guess who


your right


the bookmaker

What are the changes bigphatairyarse?

can we keep to the subject please?

Surely r4 terms are relevant to the subject?

What are the R4 changes ?

EFFECTIVE FROM TOMORROW

Only a matter of time before the BPG is severely restricted or completely withdrawn.............so enjoy it while it lasts...I am.

It eats into the the bookmakers over-rounds and their knowledgable shareholders dont want that.

Good question.

I don't know the answer.

However, given that several large firms have been offering this concession for 3+ years, it's reasonable to assume that it works in the bookmaker's favour, with any loss of margin compensated for by higher turnover.

The net benefit to the customer is probably in the order of 1-2%.

I'd be absolutely certain that, over a reasonable period of time, taking the market price on here would massively outperform any set of morning prices with BOG.

It would certainly be interesting to see the hard numbers, though, if anyone has them.