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Soren24
01 Jan 11 06:15
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Date Joined: 02 Jun 09
| Topic/replies: 1,591 | Blogger: Soren24's blog
I realize this is the wrong place to post, but there wasnt a handball section as far as i could tell, so i apologize. I was betting on handball Euro this december, and there was a +5.5 handicap odds market. My question is, and i realise this is a tough one, how do i calculate the odds in-play, so i know what i bet on, is correct?

thanks for any answers, i really appriciate it!
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Report Lori January 1, 2011 11:14 PM GMT
Not sure what you're asking so I'll give two answers

1) The team that is getting +5.5 has to either win the game or lose by 5 or fewer for the bet on that team to win. The other team needs to win by 6 or more

2) To caclulate the odds isn't easy (I'm likening this to basketball, I'm assuming it's going to be a similar way of working stuff out)

You'll need historical data and a bit of wit/flair for the game. If the big favourites are 6 points ahead at halftime, are they likely to easy off or are they likely to win by 12?
If the game is close, are there things they can do to make sure they win that will kill the clock off but mean they fail to win by 6, in other words,... are they TRYING to win by 6, or just win

If you wanted a simplistic way of doing it, (and excuse my lack of knowledge of handball) I believe a match lasts 60 minutes, you could say the odds should stay at evens if they get one goal ahead every ten minutes. (Making them win by exactly 6 at the end. If the handicap is 11.5, the better team would need to get two furter ahead every ten minutes).

Use that as a base and adjust with experience of the game. It may turn out that for a team to bother to win by 12, they might need to be 8 ahead at halftime, use a bit of judgement.
Report Soren24 January 2, 2011 7:04 AM GMT
Hi Lori!

Thanks a lot for your reply. It was more the number two there, i was looking for. And yea, i guess itll stay the same whether its basket or handball, since they both have high scoring games.

What im looking for was handicap in-play odds and how they develope. Im looking into this, because i believe that during the handball games in december i found an ege, here on betfair, and the mens world cup are coming up this month. Needless to say, i made quite some money on it.

This is where it gets tricky. Besides all the factors youve explained above, im still lacking the understanding as to how bookmakers calculate in-play movement of those markets. Lets say a game has +2,5/-2,5 from the start, and is at 2.00 for both sides, 1 team scores 5 goals quickly making the scoreline 5-0, then it gets hard to tell where the odds should be. :)

Anyways, for handball at least, i believe there some sort of ege there, and will be looking for one, at the mens WC too :)
Report Lori January 2, 2011 10:44 AM GMT
The chances are that if you look into it, your odds will be better than the bookmaker ones with practise!

Do they have halftime odds? If so you could write down the odds before the game, the odds and score at halftime and see what changes.
Do that for 50 or so games and you'll get a feel for how they're making their odds up, then you just have to work out what they're doing wrong.

The problems you're highlighting are good things, not bad ones. The bookmakers will have the same problems as you and they'll be too busy getting their soccer odds right to be worried about a smaller sport (in their minds)

The only trouble you may find is that if you start beating a UK based firm by betting on handball, they'll probably restrict your account sooner rather than later.
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