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jonnyg
29 Dec 10 12:36
Joined:
Date Joined: 04 Jul 00
| Topic/replies: 17,039 | Blogger: jonnyg's blog
Utd game Away.

How many times have Man utd scored 4 or more away this season. The answer is 0%. The key here is that unqoted in the game against Birmingham was 8.4 to lay at ko.

How many shots on Goal do Man Utd Average per game?

Answer 8.

What % of the shots on goal (SOT) do they convert away?

Answer 0.25 so the average is 2 goals per every 8 shots on target.

How many shots on goal do they need to average to score 4 away?

Answer  16.

How many times have they had more then 10 shots on goal in a game this season.

Answer

0%.

At home their average is higher at just over 0.3. They have managed to score 4 goals or more in only one game. 7-1 v Blackburn.

On average this still means that they would require 13 shots on goal to get an average of 4 goals in a game.

The only game that went against this was against Blackburn where they had 9 SOT and scored 7.


Last night against BIRMINGHAM they had 4 shots on goal and scored the expected ONE goal.


i will be looking at tonights game later.

It is possible to trade games In running with the shot expectation and SOT expectation and actual shots and SOT as a game progresses.

Man UTD average 15 shots per game

how many shots did they have last night?

Answer 14.

so in summary they did their average number of shots (nearly) but fell short in their number of average shots on target.


If there is anyone out there that is trading the markets based on SOT and shots on goal then please contact me if you dont mind sharing information.
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Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:14 PM GMT
villareal 2.04Shocked
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:15 PM GMT
MILAN AMBER
CESENA AMBER
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:16 PM GMT
EVery time dangerous free kick the market maker pulls all  the money.
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:17 PM GMT
villareal 6-1 showing profile of 2x 2-1 ftShocked
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:17 PM GMT
2x 3-1 ft were 10 v 5 and 5v 2
Report scotbet January 23, 2011 9:18 PM GMT
jonnyg Date Joined: 04 Jul 00
Add contact | Send message When: 23 Jan 11 21:10 2-1 x 2 when spain 1-1 ht this season home

villa 5 v 1

2-1 was 8-2 and 9-2

so could end as similar profile



2 things of interest (maybe)

1) 2nd goals score both in the 90th minute
2) 1 of the games a team had a man sent off
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:20 PM GMT
mialn red
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:22 PM GMT
correction milan amber
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:22 PM GMT
villa 7 v 1

green green
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:23 PM GMT
MILAN red
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:24 PM GMT
cesena amber
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:26 PM GMT
milan 2.03
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:27 PM GMT
milan been red in both halvesShocked
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:28 PM GMT
villareal still showing 2-1 profile ft.
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:29 PM GMT
VILALREAL AMABER BUT SHOW 2-1 FT PROFILE
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:30 PM GMT
WILL the amber or profile win?
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:31 PM GMT
MILAN RED 2.32
Report scummbag January 23, 2011 9:32 PM GMT
Lay sociedad next goal?
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:33 PM GMT
villareal 2.72 8sot v 1 AMBER- but strong profile for ft 2-1
Report scotbet January 23, 2011 9:35 PM GMT
johnny

what would the ft score (per profile)  if Villa got on and have another 4 or 5 sot on until the end?
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:38 PM GMT
robhino hits the postCry
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:39 PM GMT
goallllllllllll

yehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:39 PM GMT
get innnnnnnnnnnnnnn

my model workssssssssssssssssssss
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:39 PM GMT
milan green

haha
Report Kelly Brook January 23, 2011 9:40 PM GMT
top bombing jonny Love
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:40 PM GMT
.04                     £1,795
1.05                  £1,207
1.06     £4,253           £501
1.07                  £1,362
1.08                  £1,427
1.09                  £2,656
1.10                  £1,487
1.11     £4           £589
1.12                  £97
1.13                  £454
1.14                  £1,415
1.15                  £931
1.16                  £5,646
1.17                  £13,796
1.18                  £1,237
1.19                  £608
1.20                  £15,667
1.21                  £3,833
1.22                  £814
1.23                  £32
1.24                  £205
1.25                  £14 lay amber
1.26                  £157
1.27                  £5
1.28                  £80
1.29                  £447
1.30                  £2,369
1.31                  £57
1.32                  £206
1.33                  £1,913
1.34                  £4,751
1.35                  £1,169
1.36                  £1,312
1.37                  £1,070
1.38                  £532
1.39                  £3,969
1.40                  £3,386
1.41                  £2,669
1.42                  £8,982
1.43                  £3,258
1.44                  £294
1.45                  £355
1.46                  £344
1.47                  £241
1.48                  £140
1.49                  £254
1.50                  £1,061 lay red
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:40 PM GMT
milan game was best ever sot game
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:42 PM GMT
over to last commCry

villareal


got a new filter-looking at profiles of games

saw 1-1 ht villa tehn goes 2-1 and fits teh 1-1 ft profile like a glove so i am not laying 1.25 even though villa are AMBER
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:42 PM GMT
2-1FT*
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:43 PM GMT
WHAT AWAY TO END A THREAD
Report Gooner021 January 23, 2011 9:44 PM GMT
nice. Backed 2-0 before the game :)
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:44 PM GMT
uncanny saw it when 2-1 was 4.0000


ft 2-1

two examples

8 v 2 sot and 9v 2 we have 8v 1 in vilalrealShocked
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:45 PM GMT
i have raised the bar chaps on the forum

stats are great if you can profile them.
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:47 PM GMT
dont forget cesena amber failed but 0.00 lost as we had red other team laying the same thing but at bigger odds, well 1.5 instead of 1.25Laugh
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:48 PM GMT
if you ever start a model dont give up because it failed one day or one game.
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:50 PM GMT
valencia v espanyol and zara v soc and villareal tonight

all 1-1 ht

all ended 2-1 ft

and sot exactly the same 9/2 8/2 8/1 and they are teh only games this season taht have ended 2-1 from 1-1 ht spain.

say you just layed 2-1 ft as it does not happen very oftenLaugh
Report acornel January 23, 2011 9:51 PM GMT
Viva Ibra ... what an end
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:52 PM GMT
Soccer: £130.11 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £130.11

Soccer     Showing 1 - 11 of 11 markets
Market     Start time     Settled date     Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / AC Milan v Cesena : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 19:45     23-Jan-11 21:46     23.87 milan red lay 1.5 and under
Soccer / AC Milan v Cesena : Match Odds     23-Jan-11 19:45     23-Jan-11 21:40     9.55 sot data
Soccer / AC Milan v Cesena : Half Time Score     23-Jan-11 19:45     23-Jan-11 20:37     28.65 milan red lay 1.5 and under
Soccer / Real Madrid v Mallorca : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 18:00     23-Jan-11 19:51     6.37
Soccer / Blackburn v West Brom : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 16:00     23-Jan-11 17:53     -6.00
Soccer / Zaragoza v Deportivo : Match Odds     23-Jan-11 16:00     23-Jan-11 17:53     32.47
Soccer / Bologna v Lazio : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 14:00     23-Jan-11 15:59     16.24
Soccer / Sampdoria v Juventus : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 14:00     23-Jan-11 15:57     -3.00
Soccer / G Furth v Union Berlin : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 12:30     23-Jan-11 14:22     9.55
Soccer / FSV Frankfurt v Oberhausen : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 12:30     23-Jan-11 13:45     5.73
Soccer / Udinese v Inter : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 11:30     23-Jan-11 13:28     6.68
Report acornel January 23, 2011 9:52 PM GMT
Definitely Milan - Cesena was too perfect for SOT!

GL chaps and good night!
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:54 PM GMT
should have made over £300 and i am using 1k bank.

missed two lay correct score ht which won.

and playing 1/3 stakes laying the 1.5/1.25
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:55 PM GMT
Soccer / Villarreal v Sociedad : Correct Score       23-Jan-11 20:00       23-Jan-11 21:52      3.34 swerve lay amber but should have made for a profile 2-1 ft game.Cry
Soccer / AC Milan v Cesena : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 19:45     23-Jan-11 21:46     23.87
Soccer / AC Milan v Cesena : Match Odds     23-Jan-11 19:45     23-Jan-11 21:40     9.55
Soccer / AC Milan v Cesena : Half Time Score     23-Jan-11 19:45     23-Jan-11 20:37     28.65
Soccer / Real Madrid v Mallorca : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 18:00     23-Jan-11 19:51     6.37
Soccer / Blackburn v West Brom : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 16:00     23-Jan-11 17:53     -6.00
Soccer / Zaragoza v Deportivo : Match Odds     23-Jan-11 16:00     23-Jan-11 17:53     32.47
Soccer / Bologna v Lazio : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 14:00     23-Jan-11 15:59     16.24
Soccer / Sampdoria v Juventus : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 14:00     23-Jan-11 15:57     -3.00
Soccer / G Furth v Union Berlin : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 12:30     23-Jan-11 14:22     9.55
Soccer / FSV Frankfurt v Oberhausen : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 12:30     23-Jan-11 13:45     5.73
Soccer / Udinese v Inter : Correct Score     23-Jan-11 11:30     23-Jan-11 13:28     6.68
Report acornel January 23, 2011 9:56 PM GMT
Do not forget Juve and Genoa that failed to score (@1.25) Plain
Anyway, it would not have impacted too much the final P&L
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:56 PM GMT
that's it folks

even if i get insulted i am not coming back to comm as miss to many lay bets and i cant afford to miss themCry
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:57 PM GMT
juve -3.00 genoa think i have missed.

missed blackburn lay 1-0 ht
and one other or was it two????
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 9:58 PM GMT
ah yes lay villareal 0-1 ht
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 10:00 PM GMT
off to find basketball statsCry
Report scotbet January 23, 2011 10:02 PM GMT
wd johnny glad for you , even though you didn't answer my point Cry
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 10:12 PM GMT
sorry what was your point?
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 10:16 PM GMT
johnny

what would the ft score (per profile)  if Villa got on and have another 4 or 5 sot on until the end?

not likely to happen as 10/5 was a 3-1 profile and barca did a 3-1 5/2 profile
Report scotbet January 23, 2011 10:18 PM GMT
it was a couple of points in truth

1) Re 2-1 fts  profile ....1 of the games had a sending off - so don't you discard this?
2) The 2-1ft from 1-1ht per profile ,,,,what would happen if team a or b ...changed its profile
with a lot of late sots...I know from 49mins onwards you felt it was a classic 2-1
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 10:18 PM GMT
i hope i can have the last post.

thanks again chaps.

i appreciated all the costructive comments.

think most of chaps on forum work for betfair like frog so it is not easy for the rest of us.Cry
Report jonnyg January 23, 2011 10:21 PM GMT
uncanny how many short prices get beat. let's hope my net is big enough. liquidity will never be a problem.. there will always be someone chasing a correct score back to get out of trouble.
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 8:49 AM GMT
this is for scotbet and i hope this will drive forward your love for stats.

Do you remember last night when i was looking at Spain 1-0 and said getfae could lose because Espanyol had more shots on target in the first half and this fit the profile of losing home teams.

Well, i looked at SEVILLA V GETAFE NOV 27 2010

In both games the home side go 1-0 up ht.

IN BOTH GAMES THE HOME SIDE HAD 17 SHOTS...WITH GETAFE LAST NIGHT 5 SHOTS ON TARGET AND SEVILLA 6.

THE AWAY TEAMS THAT SCORED 3 SECOND HALF GOALS HAD 12 AND 13 SHOTS AND BOTH HAD 6 SHOTS ON TARGET.

THEY BOTH SCORED SECOND HALF GOALS IN THE SAME TIME FRAME... 53' 60' AND 57' 59'

there is one difference which is sevilla had more sots in the first half but ended 6/6
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 8:49 AM GMT
Shocked
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 9:28 AM GMT
Predicting 0-0 ft in La liga?

most number of sots for home team when 0-0 ft in la liga is 5 without scoring with the exception of 2 games where tow home teams had 10sots and did not score, and i will look at the games later to see if i can see anything.

away the figure is up to and including 7sot without scoring(with the away 0-0 ft average much lower)
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 9:33 AM GMT
ok i one of the 10sot game the away side had a red card so that explains that one.

and sevilla at home second game of season should have scored but did not- just one of them days.
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 9:38 AM GMT
removing the 2 10sot games gives sot average home for 0-0 ft la liga at 3.09 and away..3.54.
Report armagnac January 24, 2011 9:45 AM GMT
get on with basketball and ice hockey sot now, i need the deposit for my sunseeker by easter Mischief
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 9:48 AM GMT
army get me the data
Report armagnac January 24, 2011 9:52 AM GMT
ffs i gotta do everything Laugh
Report armagnac January 24, 2011 9:57 AM GMT
.
http://proicehockey.about.com/od/learnthegame/a/stats_explained.htm

start here 1st, understand the game ( maybe new thread needed )
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 9:58 AM GMT
can we predict italy 0-0?

home average sot for 0-0 ft 2.75Shockedsot

away average 2.95.

home high 5
away high one 7 and one 8
Report armagnac January 24, 2011 10:04 AM GMT
.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/

http://www.hockeydb.com/

ching ching
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 10:08 AM GMT
can we predict french 0-0 ft?

average home 2.866666sot
high 6

away average 2.6
high one 6 and one 7
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 11:02 AM GMT
can we predict prem 0-0 ft?
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 11:21 AM GMT
5 4
8 2
2 3
3 5
2 5
9 0
3 1
2 4
2 4
4 4
4 4
2 3
8 3
5 2
5 0
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 11:22 AM GMT
4.266 average v 2.93average EPL FT 0-0
Report armagnac January 24, 2011 12:19 PM GMT
part 1

'The picture system' by jonnyg

with your pre-match stats you are creating a 'picture' of how the match and scoreline may finish.

with the in-play stats the actual 'picture' of the match is being created.
Report armagnac January 24, 2011 12:22 PM GMT
part 2

'spot the difference' by armagnac

Now you have two picture's at full-time if you can find no differences and the picture's are identical, you have cracked it.
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 12:41 PM GMT
yes

getafe 1 espnyol 3

i had a pciture of that at ht.Laugh
Report armagnac January 24, 2011 2:05 PM GMT
jonny, my halftime sot p/l is showing a loss for the last 5 days, while my match and CS p/l are showing healthy profits.

can you have a quick look at yours when you get a chance please and compare your findings.

tyia
Report armagnac January 24, 2011 2:30 PM GMT
also would be helpful if anyone else could share there profit details here because i find it hard to believe im the only one struggling in the halftime markets using the sot method.
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 2:46 PM GMT
army no probs posts yours and i will have a look

yesterday

blackburn lay 0-0 ht won
much lay 0-0 ht won
real lay 0-1 ht won
inter lay 0-0 ht won

i am happy to go through every game with you.

to advise all the ambers red for the whole weekend.
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 2:47 PM GMT
inter should read ac milan
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 2:49 PM GMT
Soccer / AC Milan v Cesena : Half Time Score     23-Jan-11 19:45     23-Jan-11 20:37     28.65

i missed the other three yesterday
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 2:52 PM GMT
Soccer / Blackpool v Sunderland : Half Time Score     22-Jan-11 15:00     22-Jan-11 15:48     -3.00 lost
Soccer / Cottbus v Bielefeld : Half Time Score     22-Jan-11 12:00     22-Jan-11 12:50     -5.00 lost
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 2:55 PM GMT
Soccer / Roma v Lazio : Half Time Score     19-Jan-11 19:45     19-Jan-11 20:34     -7.50 lost
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 2:55 PM GMT
post your list army and i will have a look.
Report armagnac January 24, 2011 3:01 PM GMT
my bets will be a lot different to yours so no point studying them hard as i use a more care free approach, i was just curious to see if you and everyone else was making more or less profits in the halftime markets compared to the outright ones, as im struggling a bit.
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 3:04 PM GMT
if you want me to look at ht for the weekend then just say...

otherwise difficult to analyse.

need you also to advise when you layed.
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 3:06 PM GMT
got my sheet with the 20 games from yesterday and 21/ sat
Report armagnac January 24, 2011 3:07 PM GMT
maybe im just getting unlucky in the halftimes, CS and match showing good profits

worship time, live long and prosper
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 3:12 PM GMT
unlucky?

there were 4 yesterday.

impossible to analyse with any info armagnac so i can do anything.

i will leave it to you to work out if a team are amber and when you should lay the bet.

i am off to look at basketball
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 4:54 PM GMT
Shots on Target Ratio in Overall Premier League Career

Top 3:

Nathan Delfouneso – 0.86

Marc Albrighton – 0.71

Gabby Agbonlahor – 0.67

Bottom 3:

Steve Sidwell – 0.36

Emile Heskey – 0.49

Stephen Ireland – 0.52
Report jonnyg January 24, 2011 9:07 PM GMT
bochum red lay 1.5 0-0 ft wins
Report acornel January 24, 2011 10:57 PM GMT
What about bolton and hercules?
Cheers
Report Kelly Brook January 25, 2011 1:13 PM GMT
IR the bolton game didnt adhere to the pre game profile , however should you have used the usual criteria then Bolton amber @ 1.25 ht would have won +4 - comm .

This game was tricky as Bolton were RED in the 2nd half but seeing as chelsea were 4 up do you lay next goal @ 1.5 (Correct score market gone ) , do you lay next goal chelsea @ 3.00 as bolton were RED and chelsea were GREEN ? The rules say yes but the dissonance between the pre and IR running profiles surely says no ?
Report Kelly Brook January 25, 2011 1:13 PM GMT
herc game was no bet
Report acornel January 26, 2011 11:33 PM GMT
Ok
Report jonnyg January 27, 2011 7:12 AM GMT
Dundee United yesterday was a goal waiting to happen but i got too greedy and was in the queue laying 1.1 and low was 1.2 for only pennies.
Report acornel January 27, 2011 8:44 AM GMT
Some other goals were expected but not happen ...
Report jonnyg January 27, 2011 8:59 AM GMT
acornel i understand what you are saying but i have added more filters as i explained to you off betfair forum so amber does not mean lay a bet every time any more.

In the rangers game i predicted 2-0 ft as an example.

i appreciate what you are saying

which games did you lose on?
Report jonnyg January 27, 2011 9:01 AM GMT
here is mine

Missed bristol city as layed 1-0 at 1.1 low when goal was 1.2.

Soccer / Barcelona v Almeria : Over/Under 5.5 Goals       26-Jan-11 21:00       26-Jan-11 22:52      56.17 trade
Soccer / Hibernian v Rangers : Correct Score     26-Jan-11 19:45     26-Jan-11 21:41     17.82 profile bet
Soccer / Sevilla v Real Madrid : Correct Score     26-Jan-11 19:00     26-Jan-11 20:57     -2.50 amber
Soccer / Liverpool v Fulham : Half Time Score     26-Jan-11 20:00     26-Jan-11 20:47     -2.50 amber
Soccer / Sampdoria v AC Milan : Correct Score     26-Jan-11 16:30     26-Jan-11 18:29     72.57 predicted final score (profile bet)
Soccer / Sampdoria v AC Milan : Half Time Score     26-Jan-11 16:30     26-Jan-11 17:19     9.55 profile bet
Report jonnyg January 27, 2011 10:09 AM GMT
armagnac you mentioned losing ht bets. I am finding that i am making very few ht bets now.
Report armagnac January 27, 2011 11:11 AM GMT
yes jonny, i was finding it very hard to make it pay during the 1st half..all the inicators were flashing but the goals were not coming.
I simply put this down to the need to score is not as great in the 1st half as it is in the 2nd half when time is running out.
Report T.M.O January 27, 2011 2:15 PM GMT
welcome back jonny Happy
Report acornel January 27, 2011 2:42 PM GMT
jonny,
take a look at Napoli, Fulham (red I think, not amber) and Hibernian (amber probably)
Report Daveyboymoyes August 8, 2011 8:57 AM BST
ttt for teapot
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer August 8, 2011 9:19 AM BST
Cripes the teapot has not changed, 4,808 posts and 99% of those are teapot's posts!
Report Daveyboymoyes August 8, 2011 9:30 AM BST
Confusing this one Alex with armagnac posting just a few posts up Laugh
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