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Is anyone interested in Goals to SHOTS ON TARGET RATIOS? why you should lay unquoted in every Man
Is anyone interested in Goals to SHOTS ON TARGET RATIOS? why you should lay unquoted in every Man
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list below off games that ended unquoted with shot/sot to see if we can see any pattern.
Doubt there will be one but the film dont start till 2.00pm.  Arsenal 30(12) 6 v blackpool Arsenal 22(11)4 v Bolton Arsenal 20(7) 4 v Villa Newcast 17(11)6 v Villa Man City13(6) 4 v Villa Man Utd 17(9) 7 v Blackburn Blackpoo10(6) 4 v Wigan Chelsea 28(8) 4 v Blackpool Bolton 20(6) 4 v Spurs Bolton 21(8) 5 v Newcastle Chelsea 19(12)6 v WBA Chelsea 11(8) 6 v Wigan WBA 9(5) 4 v Everton Man City11(6) 4 v fulham Newcastl25(8) 5 v sunderland |
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Now say you layed unquoted in every EPL but during the game if a team shots on goal was higher at any time(then their average) in the game then you got out of unquoted assuming they have scored 1 or more goal.
Against blackpool, Arsenal scored their second on 32 mins, and had already had 7 shots after 31 mins. They average 17 shots a game so could this have been a trigger on 30 mins to green out unquoted? Against Bolton, Arsenal had 15 shots before scoring goal 3 on 78mins. A trigger to get out and green unquoted before the 3 third goal as well as bolton 10 men. System will fail when you have games like Chelsea 11(8) and Wba 9(5) etc but you will get this back by laying unquoted in games such as Wigan 2 Arsenal 2 where Arsenal went 2-1 up after 44 mins and unqoted was 3.5 to lay but they had their average number of shots on goal at this time so no indication that they were not going to score 4+. Summary lay unquoted in an EPL game. If during the game a team are shooting above their average and have scored 1 or more goals then start backing total goals 3+ and green out of unquoted and wait for the expected goals. If during a game a team have scored 2 and they are not above their average then lay unquoted. A good example is Arsenal 3 Chelsea 1 Arsenal did 10(6) which is below their average but i am sure after the 3rd goal that unquoted was odds on. |
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* should read
no indication that they were going to score 4+ |
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Eureka.
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Against Wigan, Arsenal went 2-1 up on 44 mins and unquoted was 3.5 i think and i remember saying at 1-1 that i thought they would get 3 or 4 but it is not about gut instinct because the shots/sot was showing on 44 that they were below their average and at Ft they did their average 17 shots on goal and about 3 less shots on target then average.
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Boom Boom shake the room
if anyone can see holes then please advise. Out of the 15 games that ended unquoted i can see 9 games i think were the back unqoted during the game trigger would have been hit. |
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I think you could be on to something here, especially in play with an early goal or two like arsenal. If they are still averaging SOT that would not normally mean hitting 4 goals then lower odds on unquoted def worth a lay, some good prices to lay too.
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Bingo Rod.
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will now look at games where a team score 2 early goals and have a look at their SOT and goals scored at end of game.
Just looking now at Liverpool v Villa 3-0 ft Liverpool score 14 mins and then 16 mins then 55 mins SOT OF 6. SHOTS 13. THIS IS ALMOST BANG ON THEIR AVERAGE FOR A GAME. WITH 13 SHOTS EXPECTATION IS 1.625 GOALS 6 SOT EXPECTATION IS 1.5 GOALS. COMMENTARY lIVERPOOL FIRST SHOT = GOAL ONE. SECOND SHOT GOAL TWO when liverpool went 2 up with this method you would have layed the **** out of unquoted as Liverpool had only 2 shots in 16 mins. No reason to believe they would score 4. |
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It's threads like this that make the forum worth reading. Someone, having done their own research and applying it to a market in a different way.
I don't know if this is good idea or not (your samples are indeed small) but top marks to you for looking at something away from the masses. Good luck. |
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rOD i think we have cracked it.
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Flashscores have the stats for the previous week on there site if you need them
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Villa 3 west ham 0
VILLA AVERAGE 12(7) 1 -0 15MINS ALREADY HAD 6 SHOTS IN THIS GAME YOU START BACKING GOALS ... not sure if you get on before goal. villa now had 11 shots after 39 mins and they only average 12 a game so indicating goals. 40 mins and goallllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll you have backed goals and rewarded. in second half villa have a number of shots before goallllllllllllllllllll 66 mins....... you could have backed Villa goals to lock in more ... rather then total goals.... still thinking the best way of exploiting this..... so now unquoted is very short... i would imagine odds on..... Villa ended 27(5) way over the average for shots , but not for SOT. vILLA average around 0.125 shots per goal so 27*0.125=3.375 goals. and SOT OF 0.25 so 5*0.25=1.25. |
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jonnyg Date Joined: 04 Jul 00
Add contact | Send message When: 31 Dec 10 13:24 Boom Boom shake the room if anyone can see holes then please advise. Out of the 15 games that ended unquoted i can see 9 games i think were the back unqoted during the game trigger would have been hit. Yes , you've look at the target and assessed the results ( back fitting mate ) , now you have to look at every other game to see if you would have backed unquoted in them also |
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If you're looking for a formal system with which to exploit this data, you may want to look at Paul Steele's book "Profitable Football Betting". In it he offers a system called Penetration Plus:
It basically produces a scoreline for each team with this formula: goals = (shots on target * 2) + shots off target + corners He then tweaks it with the results of a game to produce a new league table. |
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think arsenal 3 Chelsea 1 already been mentioned
goal 44 51 53 lay unquoted at odds on arsenal end 10(6) well below average number of shots. Looking for more games where they have been early goals or group of goals quickly.... |
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good point scotbet i am looking but to get round that say the villa west ham i would think this could be
a scenario such as villa shots 6 after 10 mins ok back villa score 1 2 3 4 villa score 3 and obviously back of 4 is lost but ability to trade out when 3. just thinking aloud. |
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here is a classic one.
stoke 0 fULHAM 2 fULHAM average 12(6) commentary first shot fulham 1-0 on 4 mins 9 mins a SOT 10 MINS GOAL 2-0 what was unquoted on 10 mins??????? I am sure it was fairly short you lay the ******* and lay Fulham 4+ goals etc 3+..... FT fulham did 5(3) |
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Fulham 1 west ham 3
west ham 2-1 up ht ht 7 shots and 2 goals Ft average is 12(5) so not much above average. Lay unquoted and FT 14(4) almost bang on average. |
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on the basis of the sample you've used, man u's away win price in the league should be 7/1.
would you lay them at 5s? |
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so we have 2 methods
Team has shots on goal and we back in anticipation of goals (maybe a good idea to wait for goal 1) as Sunderland had 30 shots the other day and scored 0. But this may be an exception. Team score quick goal(s) and they are way below or on average and we lay unquoted etc BINGO. |
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blackburn 3 wolves 0
29, 43, 55 lay unquoted on 56 as blackburn Ft do average 9(4) and ft 11(6) just over the average. 11(6) should be for Blackburn...1.375 goals /1.6 if using SOT. |
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you will be laying unquoted at very short odds so if unquoted does happen the damage will be minimal.
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Sunderland average 12(7)
chelsea 0 sunderland 3 Sunderland have 10 shots and then 11th shot and 0-1 45. Ft sunderland 21(9) shots way above average...shots give 2.6 goals on average and Sot of 9 gives 3.6 goals sunderland did have the highest Sot IN THE prem at the end of Nov. key is 10 shots ... do you say 10 shots wow i must back Sunderland to score? Is Sunderland 0 Blackpool 2 just a one off or are there others. 31(11) and no goals. |
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west brom 0 man city 2
0-1 20 shot 5 0-2 26 shot 7 so well above average on 26 mins but ended 11(3) so on 27 mins the Shot is saying back more goals but as the game develops it is saying lay goals... the key is in a game like this is to reverse the initial play(backing goals) city average 12(7) much easier when a team score early goals or a group of goals when below the average or on the average. |
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man city 4 villa 0
ft 13(6) so bang on average but score 4 goals when they only average 1.3 goals at home. 2-0 after 13 mins 3-0 after 27 mins key is can you avoid a game like this? 1. if you just layed unquoted before the game then your screen is red. 2. if you layed unquoted on 27 mins then you could still profit from this..... lay unquoted at 3-0 and trade out. even if goal i assume very small liabilty as unquoted odds on........ |
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My simple question to you all is if you lay unquoted in every EPL game bar Man utd /chelsea /arsenal /man city and blackpool(very unpredictable) then would you have made a profit(assume you dont trade out of any games )?
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and villa because they are so poor at the back.
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Bolton 20(6) 4 v Spurs
Bolton 21(8) 5 v Newcastle WBA 9(5) 4 v Everton Newcastl25(8) 5 v sunderland using the simple filter gives us just the 4 games. |
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take out bolton as well and we are left with
WBA 9(5) 4 v Everton Newcastl25(8) 5 v sunderland |
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so we can agree that if you layed unquoted this season in every game but not involving BOLTON VILLA BLACKPOOL CHELSEA ARSENAL MAN CITY that you would have made a profit.
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i cant see any holes in this simple method but can you?
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another good one
Newcastle 2 wigan 2 average 13(7) 0-1 22 2 shot 0-2 23 3rd shot FT 8(3) and well below their average but even if they got to average 13(7) then goal expecation would be 13 shots and 0.975 of a goal and 7SOT = 1.05 goals. and Wigan average 0.77 goals away this season. |
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Wolves 2 stoke 1 Wolves average 11(6)
shot 7 on 37mins and 1-0 shot 8 39 and 2-0 10 shots at HT. question is would you 1. back wolves to score more OR 2. lay unquoted wolves average 1.4 goals at home. FT 15(4) 15*0.15=2.25 goals 4*0.25=1 goal for SOT and 2.25 for shots say wolves had 20 shots 20*0.15 where 0.15 is their shot to goal average for the season=3 goals. so i think at ht you are laying unquoted because the shots are telling you that if 20 then still unlikely to score 4. the key is to take away the human thought and have a bot with a feed to the shots/sot and it just backs goals /lays goals as the game develops. what is very clear from this is that there are very few teams in the EPL that can have such low Shot and Sot in a game and score loads of goals. |
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Stoke v EVERTON Unquoted to lay 18.5
Sunderland v blackburn 14.5 Spurs v Fulham 6.8* West ham v wolves 13.5 * Fulham never conceded more then 2 this season away and average goals this season away conceded is 1. Spurs have scored 4 22(7) once this season at home to Blackburn so you could have got out easily if you layed unquoted in that game. unquoted looks a lay in the above 4 games . Key is do you lay before ko or wait for the game to develop? |
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missed spurs v blackburn from the original list.
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one last example chaps
Chelsea 1 bolton 0 Chelsea average just under 17 shots in the league. Chelsea shot 4 mins shot 18 mins shot 30 mins shot 41. just 4 shots... ft 16(7) so they did their shot average almost bang on..... key is which i actually followed for real was to lay unquoted after a few mins..... even if chelsea did the average then the goal expectation is still only around 2. this is one way of exploiting the situation when unquoted is fairly short in a game to start with...... |
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in the spurs game i would wait for the game to develop before laying unquoted.
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as mentioned against Bolton , CHELSEA OVERS odds on again but they have 67% under 2.5 goals at home this season.
small sample but not the greatest odds on shot tomorrow. |
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decided that you should not lay unquoted before a game starts of back it for that matter.
got to allow a game to develop.... the eureka moment was when a trading house i visited said tehy make most of their money from In running. |