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General Betting
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These 143 comments are related to the topic:
HOW DO YOU FIND AN EDGE?
HOW DO YOU FIND AN EDGE?
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Replies: 143
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"Deadly Earnest"
A very good example provided. The small horse carrying weights has cropped up recently elsewhere on these forums. I have fond memories of Randwick from a three week holiday at Coogee. I did not venture to the track on racedays nor enter the bookies on hight street at Coogee. A holiday is a holiday and my UK system doesn't apply in Oz. I can confer with you not betting on racing these days with the study involvement. "Scotbet" Thanks It was a very general statement and I do have many variables. I use a certain criteria which eradicates a lot of runners. Since 1995 the trainer has achieved 28 winners at 5f in low grade 3yo+ hcps (E & F grades) 17 of those wins met my general criteria and the better criteria now matched 7 wins from 9 runners. Most of his 5f hcp winners in those grades had run within 3 weeks (21 from 28)- like todays winner. |
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In the sports that interest me, Cricket, Footy and Rugby, one key factor dominates my thinking and it's one which any newbie must be aware of.
Sport is great because it's unpredictable. Knowing that this is the case, the in play punter has an edge. If we know games can fluctuate we can take advantage of high odds if you're backing or low odds if you're a layer. For example, Chelsea dropped to 1.5 to win the League. They touched 6 a while ago and are now at 4.5. Wolves were 8s to beat Liverpool. Australia were odds on to win the Ashes etc etc. This edge is of course just the start. But it's a pretty decent entry point. |
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deadly earnest - your earlier post was very well put .
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Betfairy is absolutely correct imo that the EMH couldn't possibly apply to the sports betting scenario.
No matter how perfect the information that was proved to the public it would always then be down to individual/group opinion & interpretation. Any efficiencies would tend to end at this point. If they didn't it would be impossible for the small margin market makers to operate. They'd be taken apart week in week out, but as they are the most successful on Betfair it ought to give a little clue as to where some opportunities may lay. |
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Look at it in a way that only a minority are doing would be one way of getting an edge as most of the others would be formulating their opinions via a more popular method and therefore perhaps you would come up with value bets in the majority of cases.
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I agree with allinadayswork
What % of punters actually rate and price using objective data. I would guess less than 1% Those that do can take advantage of early prices where the value can be found. |
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MAVERICK05
...the one bit of advice i keep reading about is telling people to get an edge but how do you find an edge??? somebody give me an example! Most answers seem to be form study related, but simple edges exist in the betting pattern of markets. For example in the overs/unders or correct score markets, after a goal suspension the market is wiped clean and bets resubmitted. If you know roughly what the new price will establish at, you can ask above and below to catch the bounce as the price forms during the first minute. That's a simple edge to play with that can lead to experimenting with and discovering other opportunities. Another simple example that requires patience is something like laying the 0-0 in certain matches where you can back it back after 3 - 8 minutes at the same price, resulting in a free lay and free win if the goal comes early enough. There's lots of simple edges that involve studying the market movements, how often do you currently look at price graphs? |
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Why would any sane person share this info
You clearly don't understand, or understimate the power of the group. If you are consistantly taking money out of a market then you WILL see competition. Why you'd encourage that competition is beyond me because it will be the death of your edge. Where money is involved there is no f*cking about. Silly silly boys. |
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This thread is laughable.
 The cheapest way to find an edge is hard work.  Any worthwhile example given would no longer be an edge.  |
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its not laughable .
the poster is simply looking for advice . |
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What's laughable is the number of people with so called edges willing to give them away at the drop of the hat.
They either don't have an edge or have no respect for the market. |
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Rocket, I do recall you asking me to tell you the in-play thing I was discussing off forum with Betfairy!
What I have alluded to above, whilst obvious to someone who has spent time thinking about it, would never occur to the majority nor for that matter would it disappear because the structure of the market is such that it needs to cater to the lowest common denominator. I'm also vague enough in a lot of my posts not to give my actual train of thought away, hints in the general direction are fine imo. They can stimulate debate that then sets other trains of thought running in your head. |
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If you profit from it then you should keep it quiet.
I posted a pretty simple formula in jonnyg's P&L thread a few weeks ago. Almost instantly the spread closed. As far as I was aware it was already out there but clearly not as widespread as I thought. You have no idea who is reading these threads, what bank they have, what software they have etc. If you can do it then anyone can so why go bleeting? |
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Oh, I do agree with you Rocket. The best bits I haven't mentioned & never will.
There are definitely lurkers reading this. |
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By: This user is online. DaveEdwards
Date Joined: 06 Sep 07 Add contact | Send message When: 01 Jan 11 21:18 Rocket, I do recall you asking me to tell you the in-play thing I was discussing off forum with Betfairy! You're right. And if you can discover something like you did then why can't any of the millions of other punters watching the same market? I had a brief look when you mentioned it but didn't put much more thought into it. If I'd taken a week off and really studied it, or any number of other things, I'm sure I could have come up with something. Like the hundreds of thousands of others who could've. And in those 100k's I bet there are a few who could utilise software to remove the donkey work, utilise a large bank and sh*te all over your edge/ |
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I agree which I why I am vague at best on here, but that isn't to say that people cannot interpret what I or others may hint at & apply it themselves.
Something that I do wonder about is working as a team. It is already an established fact that there are syndicates working the markets. What most of the contributors here appear to be is individuals. Working collectively on major markets pooling ideas etc I think there would be obvious scope to put something robust together. That said, everyone would have to trust each other and be prepared to share certain things that they did. Maybe it wouldn't work & I cetainly don't feel it is something that I am ready to do right now, but I'm certainly not against the idea of a select few discussing strategy etc. I'm not talking trading now obviously. |
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There are teams that manipulate the markets.
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Rocket : Why would any sane person share this info
You're assuming sanity? :) The more liquidity in the example of laying the 0-0 for a free lay, the better. Ideally the layer will also try to lay the preceding odds. If you can get a good lay on the 0-0 straight after kick off near the head of the queue, say odds 14.0, and another at 13.5, 13.0, 12.5 etc near the head of the queues, you can back them back at the same odds just before the drop of a tick. |
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Generally speaking I aim to bet against the popular
vote, not on every market of course, but mainly betting against things happening, i.e. low bookings when high expected and such like. |
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Can you come and bet on cricket Kenilworth? I'd like someone to bet against when I expect high runs or low sixes, these type of things.
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http://www.facebook.com/pages/Stupid-Oddscom-Big-Betsnet-for-Sports-fans/180837008612574?v=wall
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Every bet type has edges (remember that "bet type"), you just have to find them, every edge is proven in long term statistical results, do the maths on your theory see the stats and results to see if it works.
I am very mathmatical in my approaches, I have a system for laying a certain type of horse, 9 out of 10 of my qualifiers lose, meaning I win. Soccer, I have a theory on a bet type that shows 7 out of 9 wins Cricket, look at the statistics of Strauss as captain in test matches, 31 matches 5 losses???? so that tells you to lay the opposition (trade in and out to go green) If you rely on gut instincts, national pride or heart, you'll lose. most people are too lazy to look for angles and do the math on them. My biggest tip for an edge would be to bet and lay the same to go green IE worst case scenario is you break even For example, I will in soccer bet at the start of the game, under 2.5 goals, right now we have Hyundai A league melbourne V Nth Qld under 2.5 goals $1.86 as the game progresses with no goals the price will shorten lay out to be square. $100 @ 1.86 gives $86 profit, then lay under 2.5 at $1.50 with a liabillity of $86 so if it is under 2.5 goals I break even if over 2.5 win $60 |
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Lay price on above is now into $1.62 after 15 minutes of play, I lay out now for a break even or $36 profit
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its not called the gold coast for nothing then !
i agree with most of your conclusions here. |
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Backing under 2.5 and laying off 15/20 minutes later is most certainly NOT an edge. It's about as old and tired a method as lay the draw.
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with all due respect GCI, "every edge is proven in long term statistical results, do the maths on your theory see the stats and results to see if it works." is your absolutely critical statement.
I have found thru painful experience that short term successes can be very misleading. If you truly want to prove and 'edge' you must test it over thousands of tests not hundreds. or perhaps over a year or more, not mere weeks or months. Short term success tends to lead to overconfidence, overstaking and therefore sudden disaster when the inevitable losing strek hits. Probability's a bi tch !! GL all. |
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^ Where the hell have you been sir !
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Deadly Earnest
Can you come and bet on cricket Kenilworth? I'd like someone to bet against when I expect high runs or low sixes, these type of things. Earnest, there are plenty of negatives as well as positives in cricket just as there are in football. I do ok I can assure you. |
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I'm sure you do well Kenilworth, I'm only kidding you on mate.
On a more serious note, I do agree there are often opportunities in opposing general market sentiment. Other times, there is pretty clear value in backing the favoured result. England to win the 5th test in Sydney at 2.5ish looks a clear and timely example of that to me, for reasons I won't expand upon here. |
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Earnest, no problem. The final test is interesting, from memory backing the favourite
on a match by match basis has produced just one win so far, correct me if I'm wrong. The bookmakers and exchange markets have been very cautious about opposing Australia and so far have been right to do so. I can't make up my mind on this as I can't get away from the fact that Australia need it more than England, and will Strauss and co. battle if the have their back to the wall ? I hope they can. |
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GoldCoast
Cricket, look at the statistics of Strauss as captain in test matches, 31 matches 5 losses???? so that tells you to lay the opposition how do you correlate this with 'long term statistics' 31 events? absolute crazy example |
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What it tells you is that is would have been a good idea to back a Straus led
side, but you have to think that way before it happens. |
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Birch, on average a skipper probably captains less tests than that in his reign, so you have no chance to make decisions based on relevant sample sizes in the thousands where cricket is concerned. The beauty of that of course, is neither do the people you are betting against. In fact in my experience those who dwell on large sample sizes will be badly misled by averages etc as outcomes in cricket change over time with new rules, equipment, training techniques etc.
This goes to my earlier point that it is often better to focus on relevant precedents to the instant event, rather than averages gleaned from huge samples. |
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Wow, thanks for the info guys, lots taken on board, i think or i know my problem is discipline, for instance i'm only going to start with a bank of around two hundred pounds but my problem is in the past patience basically.
I actually know people who are making a fortune from bf and have given up their jobs and if i'm completely honest i'm envious. I'm betting on football, poker, horses etc and taking punts to try and build it up big quickly but i've realised without patience and discipline yes you can have a good day but eventually it all goes back. If i had to choose one market to stick to it would probably be football markets over 2.5 goals as i seem to do pretty well on that and you are limiting your losses as the average price seems to be around the even money mark, that's my thoughts and am thinking of studying the football and sticking to this, what do you think?? |
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What do you think, you ask ? I think you ought to ask these
people you mention who are allegedly making 'fortunes', for some advice. My bit of advice is not to believe everything you are told. |
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What are the people you know making a fortune on, I mean which sport and for how long? I wouldn't believe all they tell you if I was you, making a fortune on BF is possible of course, but nearly as rare as rocking horse poo.
You sound very much like I was a couple of years ago, my problem was a lack of discipline too. Some people don't believe in the discipline concept because it comes naturally to them, but for thoses of us that suffer, learning a systematic approach is essential. I learnt to control my staking by only ever betting 0.5% of the betting bank, as the bank grows so do the profits. IMO you're right to just stick with football, study the markets and the price graphs and work out where the opportunities are. The day I gave up horse racing to concentrate on football was the day I started to make money! It's still hard to stick rigidly to a system/method though, as a good edge will only give you perhaps 2-5% after comm, so there will still be losing runs that can tempt you in to a chase. You have to learn how to stick to the method even when you feel like you've been 10 rounds with Tyson. That's difficult when you're just a human and not a bot! I try to look at it as if I'm running a roulette table (a licence to print) but even so the edge is only a puny sounding 2.7% and there will be days when punters rape you, but if you can keep your head through those days you will always come out on top. |
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MAVERICK05
The idea of sticking to one sport and specializing on it is imo the way to go. With your football markets, maybe I am wrong but limiting yourself to bets or lays around the even money price also limits your scope to obtain big overlays. Your mind set is on limiting losses instead of increasing profits. Fear of losing is the greatest obstacle to rising above mediocrity in all walks of life. By all means get the 2.5 goals and over right, this might be your bread and butter punting. Once you are consistently making a profit on that increase your scope to the more profitable bigger odds. Keep a data base or spread sheet, predict before the event what you think the prices should be for all the bet types available, jot those down next to the matches and jot down pre-match prices for the same. Analyze how your predictions are doing, are you way out, close or better than the final outcome. Are you doing better than pre-match? Study, study and tune your predictions. |
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Maverick, with a bank of 200 pounds you will need patience to acquire fortunes. However it is a good amount to practise a necessary betting skill. A tip for you is to record all your bets and review them afterwards with a particular emphasis on your emotional state at time of placing bets, you will soon see in exact monetary terms the cost of impatience.Mastering this skill is essential to success as it is one of the cornerstones of successful punting.
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Fear of losing is the greatest obstacle to rising above mediocrity in all walks of life.
============================================================================================= COMPOUND .......You ain't a KIWI!.......................Their mentality re RUGBY is the best there is................................ PERFECTION is what they "teach".................................. LOSING is nowhere in their mental approach to a game OR ANY game.............. However...............in life...some "lose".....few WIN...................BUT ....what is "winning" ....and what is "losing".........DEFINE! |
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DFC
Did you ever watch 'Kung Fu' the TV series built around the philosophies of life? Losing is embracing safety ~ You can't gain if you don't compete, you will not know true joy without experiencing sorrow, for most situations in life there is a yin and yang. If you take no chances in life there will be no rewards. The rich in love, business, sport prowess, inventing, investing etc... are that way because they took a gamble, not because they sat back and played it safe and risked nothing. No risk no reward, nothing ventured nothing gained. Fortune favors the brave. etc... etc... Losers are people who are content to serve others, willing to be enslaved so as not to risk losing their next meal. |