General Betting
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Do the most successful sports traders " Green Up " as soon as it is able ? or do they let the investment run longer depending on the bet.
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Yes!
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No , they only green up when/if it is value to do so i expect.
Though in some cases they may decide to green up at a neutral price if they can free up the money to use on a value bet elsewhere. |
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Sometimes they green up if they get a bad feeling.
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Hiya Doug :-) Well I try to Green Up as soon as possible mate ... mainly because I'm a nervous wreck !!!
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Eli, why are you a nervous wreck ?
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bacause his losses are too big for comfort ken .
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Hiya Doug :-) Well I try to Green Up as soon as possible mate ... mainly because I'm a nervous wreck !!!
If you trade not to lose money then you will lose long term. You need to trade to win and let winning trades run until it is value to green out. If you take the slightest bit of profit as soon as you can then your winning trades will not cover your losses unless you have a ridiculously high strike rate (which by you saying you're a nervous wreck i doubt that you have). |
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assuming you get your staking right, your long term profitability will depend on the aggregate value of all your bets.
with a couple of caveats* greening/redding up makes no real difference to this. the trader who always goes red at value will have a smaller proportion of winning markets than the trader who always goes green regardless of value, but will be more profitable over time. *commission, the ability to play a value market repeatedly. |
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Greening up is sometimes good for your mental health.
That's quite important in this game . |
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Plenty of value punters go bust waiting for the maths to work out in their favour.
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In that case ron they are over staking as if they are getting value they should not be going bust.
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waiting for a few minutes more can turn your green into red
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Coachbuster Greening up is sometimes good for your mental health. agree. Frame of mind is a key to steady success. - - - Redding up - it is important to know when to do this as well. Greening up - I learnt from daytrading (dealing with 50K per TRADE including margin) and a rule that is easy to adapt here - you can throw "partial greens" onto the table if you aren't sure. I.E, lay at 6.2 / £20..........6.6 back £10 then watch the market. Also, depending on the time, you can always trade out then re-enter the market. Success is not built on a single trade. Trading/betting on this platform is about understanding time as well as prices. The longer you hold onto a trade that is green, the chance remains that it can swing red until you close it. |
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If the lay price is one at which you would enter the market, then close out your position. Do not green up for the sake of greening up. This is an error a lot of traders tend to make. You let winning bets run, and cut the losses short, not the other way around.
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Why is it called "greening up " ?
Why not " blacking up " ? |
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The thing I've never understood, or at least had adequately explained to me, is why would you ever close out a " good value " wager unless either it is starting to lose value in some form or manner, or you see a better value opportunity elsewhere to use the capital you are tying up.
Closing it out just to realise an early profit per se doesn't make any sense at all to me. |
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I find greening up to be a great discipline. Betting is risky and in my sometimes painful experience to show respect for the volatility of this game by removing exposure is the best way to go.
I guess it depends on your strike rate. If you get few winners but with decent returns then greening up may not be something you can afford. I like to be in control of the bet/trade. My ideal scenario is to be green before the business end of a game, before the heart starts to pump that bit quicker with anxiety. I like to turn off the tv and go out, knowing that the outcome is not the issue. |
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The BF commission structure is such that (ignoring Premium Charge considerations for the moment) is it ALWAYS rational to green up at fair value. In fact, as long as one is paying a non-zero rate of commission on winnings, it is rational to green up at slightly worse than fair value (the precise amount worse depends on one's commission level).
Greening up is what enables a trader who is paying 5% commission on winnings, say, to run a profitable trading system in which he only has a 1% edge. |
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Not quite true, Contrarian, but I am being pedantic here.
If the market is in a particularly irrational phase, which is often the case, and in a small time frame (say the next point in tennis) you know fairly accurately where the market is going in either direction, then it can be more optimal not to green out at fair value. |
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It is a fact that far too many people green up when they should not be doing so.
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Bayes,
Do you mean that you can be fairly sure, in this case, that whichever price the market moves to at the next point, you will be able to trade at better than fair value? If so, I agree. |
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jimmy, it is also a fact that there are those who are aware of
situations when some people may green up when they should not be doing so, and take advantage of those situations. A classic example was the ManC v Everton match. |
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Contrarian
Can you post an example to illustrate your point ? Doesn't it depend on the amount of winnings being given up vs the comm. savings ? Maybe not, but I'd like to understand exactly why. |
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FAFH,
Take the example of a fair coin toss. Suppose I am on 5% commission, and I can back heads for 2.04. If I don't green up, my expected return per toss is: = (0.5 * 1.04 * STAKE * 0.95) - (0.5 * STAKE) = -0.006 * STAKE. Despite backing at value, my 5% commission means that I lose 0.6% of my stake each toss. However, if I green up at evens just before the coin is flipped, my expected return is: = (0.5 * ((1.04 * STAKE) - STAKE)) * 0.95 = 0.019 * STAKE. And even if I lay off my bet at 2.02 before the coin is flipped, my expected return is positive: = (0.5 * ((1.04 * STAKE) - (1.02 * STAKE)) * 0.95 = 0.0095 * STAKE. |
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I've taken plenty of assumed bad value when greening up too early , but i am convinced overall that i am in profit by doing so .
I specialise in correct scores , so if i am in a position where i have a large green in place on a certain score (3-2,2-3,2-2,4-2,3-3) i tend to want to capitalise on this . I know the correct odds of my score should be say 3.8 ,but i will lay at 4.3 and lose £100- 400 voluntarily . The reason for this is two fold. Firstly , if a succession of goals have been scored in a short time the likelihood of an impending goal is far greater than the normal odds would suggest . No logic therefore in waiting for the odds to correct themselves . Secondly . 3.8 is a better lay than 1000 . |
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4.3 *
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true, contrarian. but the PC is a pretty major factor.
unless you have a definite idea of what constitutes value in a given situation, I would say that two key rules of thumb in greening up after a favourable development are: *wait for the market to settle *don't cross the spread. |
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Do you mean that you can be fairly sure, in this case, that whichever price the market moves to at the next point, you will be able to trade at better than fair value?
Exactly this. In the simplest case, let's say the price is at fair value for you to trade out but you are fairly sure that you will either get: - fair value if the next point goes against you - 1% better than fair value if the next point goes for you then it is better to hold your position. Effectively you've had an extra EV+ bet on a micro basis. |
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Firstly , if a succession of goals have been scored in a short time the likelihood of an impending goal is far greater than the normal odds would suggest
Sorry, but not true. |
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goals beget goals .
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Thank you Contrarian.
All clear now. |
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Do the most successful sports traders " Green Up " as soon as it is able ? or do they let the investment run longer depending on the bet.
I am no successful sports trader but i green up as soon as i can.. i then build new position when price settles... For example, Man United Vs Sunderland this weekend, i lay Man Utd at 1.3 no goals in 45 mins, man united price now at 1.6 or higher, i green out. Depending on how the second half goes , i may put a new trade at 55 - 60 mins On the other hand if Man United score in the first min and then 1.3 is now 1.1, i will red out and build a new position The above was just an example and i do not suggest laying man utd this weekend .. but then why not? Sunderland won at Chelsea so they can do at Old Trafford [;)] |
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I am no successful sports trader but i green up as soon as i can.. i then build new position when price settles...
Greening up as soon as you can is one big reason why you are not successful. Taking small profits is easy - it's letting winners run and cutting losses short that is the key to profitability. Trading 101. |
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The main reason to green up is to avoid the psychological impact of a large loss or losing a large win.
Commission is the other issue, as pointed out above. |
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The commission example is flawed since commission needs to be factored in before deciding whether or not a bet is value, and no one in their right mind would back at 2.04 and let it run if their commission rate is 5%.
Unless you are overstaking, or again not betting at value, then it makes no sense to lay off at anything other than value. Long-term, you are giving away money. I do agree that when you stand to win a large amount of money, then it is understandable to lay off at less than value. Imagine the guy who in December 2007 bets £100 on Cardiff City to win the FA Cup at 500-1. (I'm making these numbers up to illustrate the point). He then suffers the misfortune of spending the next four months in a coma, before waking up on the eve of the Cup Final to find that Cardiff are in it. He considers true value at this point to be 3-1, but can only green up at 7-2. Who among us would seriously suggest he not do that because "it's not value" to do so? |
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the commission example still works cpfc, say for example you backed a fair coin toss at 2.2 (which would still be value after commission), your expected profitability would be higher greening out at evens than letting it ride. the mistake most punters make is greening out at a very poor price
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cpfc, quite an extreme and highly unlikely example but I'm sure
some people would be looking to get out of that bet at many stages between 500/1 and 3/1, value or not. I almost never green up and I am sure it pays me to be that way. The problem is, when do you green up ? For instance, backing 'unders' pre kickoff, there is a profit within a couple of minutes of play, so when ? For me, the answer is to stake,and be prepared to lose. |
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In theory you'll obviously be better off closing out when it's value to do so but that requires the skill to know when a bet is 'value' or not. I'd imagine most traders on here are turning over so many markets their only concern is selling the bet back at worse odds than they bought it for regardless of if any of their bets were value to begin with. It's a lot easier to judge the direction of a market than have the skillset to consistently identify 'value' bets.
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yep,green out and move on while the profit is there .
then onto the next game . no point in spending all day picking 5 pences off the floor when you can make more doing something else [;)] |