|
By:
As you near kick off it's an assumption that any and all information has made its way into the market hence the true value.
|
|
By:
Rocket
As I said that may well be true. But after KO how do you assess value then, as matters unfold in a myriad of ways ? |
|
By:
Strange, your post wasn't there when I replied.
I have no doubt the most popular is to benefit from miss matches across markets. I could write all day about it and still not make much sense. There are a number of different methods, each with their own merits. I don't bet in play except the odd exception but I have no doubt I could. Somebody with the time and inclination may give you a better explanation. |
|
By:
If I understand you correctly Rocket, what you're saying is that during a game various mispricing arbitrage opportunities arise between various interrelated markets, for those quick enough to spot them.
You may well be right again. But that is an entirely different matter to " value betting" and " trend spotting " isn't it ?. |
|
By:
Is it?
|
|
By:
Well for starters, arbitrage is a guaranteed profit, whilst the other "trading" activities are only maybe profits, only generated if you get it more right than wrong.
You don't think that's a material difference ? |
|
By:
Why arb, when you can pay PC.
|
|
By:
aye robot, thanks for the detailed reply.
Let me describe in general terms something that is a reliable earner for me, which has nothing to do with value as you define it. I won't describe its specifics as I don't want other people jumping on it. There are markets where outcome A shortens and then outcome B shortens in a predictable pattern. Obviously profits can be made by backing and laying A and B at the right points in the pattern. |
|
By:
Frog Hair, a little educational anecdote.
I was in the Bank yesterday and spent half an hour trying to explain to the manager something the bank claims is in fact false. When I wrote out an example proving my point, you could clearly see the dissonance as my example clashed with what he and his colleuges believed. The result being he refused to believe my example and went off on some irrelevant tangent. The point of the story is that there is money to be made on BF from finding things most people believe that are in fact false. Arbitrage, for example. |
|
By:
pxb, if outcome B shortens due to (or for the same reasons as) outcome A shortening, then backing outcome B after outcome A has already shortened and B hasn't will likely be a value bet.
You may not know or care where you are getting value, but you most likely are. |
|
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
Date Joined: 12 Mar 07 Add contact | Send message When: 22 Dec 10 22:10 aye robot Why do you say " Overall prices trend towards true value ---- " " Isn't this the the same as believong in the efficient market theory on the stock markets, and we know how that has been discredited well and truly. It's fairly obvious that prices are more likely to move toward true value than away from it. EMH in it's strong form suggests that all new information is reflected in the price immediately (so there wouldn't be any non-random trends to exploit), this is clearly ridiculous, bearing no semblance to reality, and useful only as an artificial construct for academicians to squabble over. In any case hardly anyone supports that. The weaker forms of EMH do have some merit. From empirical analysis, the following conclusion can be drawn: The more liquid a market is the more accurate prices will be. It's possible to profit from that information alone |
|
By:
UNLESS YOU WORK IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR AND ARE VERY CLUED UP ,STAY WELL AWAY FROM BUYING AND SELLING SHARES ,THOSE THAT RUN THEM, MAKE BOOKMAKERS LOOK LIKE SAINTS
|
|
By:
Howsyourlucknow .. slow down you fired about 5 ?
heres my answer.. this cost you knowt Q1 ..No Q2...No Q3...Yes Q4...yes Q5.. is so foggy lets say i have no idea ........zipper . |
|
By:
Do wah Diddy ..Zip likes the name . but you are so right
See My Post 14 Dec 16.52 and 16.55 if you need any more advice |
|
By:
MY BROKER WAS IN KING STREET MANCHESTER SET AMONGST ST ANNS SQUARES FINEST BUILDINGS ,I WAS ONCE ONE OF THE TOP 250 SHARE HOLDERS IN BRITISH STEEL BEFORE THEY WERE TAKEN OVER NY CORUS,I NOW LIVE ON A COUNCIL ESTATE WITH MY MAM ,AND IVE GOT A SHARE CERTIFEECATE WITH 200000 SHARES IN BRENT WALKER , WHO OWNED WALLIAM HULLS THE BOOKMAKERS ,THEY SOLD WALLIAM HILLS AND THEN WENT INTO LIQUIDATION THEIR NOT WORTH A CARROT
|
|
By:
THEIR RIGHT WHAT THEY SAY,A FOOL AND HIS MONEY ARE SOON PARTED
|
|
By:
I THOUGHT IF YOU CANT BEAT WALLIAM HULLS JOIN THEM ,SO I DID AND THE PARENT COMPANY WENT BUMP
|
|
By:
I BOUGHT THOUSANDS OF RATNER SHARES THE SAME WEEK AS GENERALD RATNER THE MANAGEING DIRECTOR TOLD EVERY ONE HIS JEWERLLRY WAS CRAP,I DID GET A LOYALTY CARD WITH 10% OFF EACH PURCHASE I MADE
|
|
By:
EVERYONE SAID PAY A SPECIALIST TO INVEST YOUR MONEY ,I SAID NO THANKS IM NOT PAYING ANYONE FEES WITH MY HARD EARNED MONEY ,ILL DO IT MY WAY
|