advice on trading courses..

Tell him to put the money in here and start off small. He's got far more chance of working it out for himself than learning anything from a trading course

very simple.... trading profit = selling price - buying price

Courses you need to go on start at newton abbot, finish at perth.

3) -------work out probabilities --- can understand it and it doesn't need to be learnt----"

My point brendanuk was that they are also NOT full of people with accounting backgrounds.
Your obvious disgust, dislike of the general make up of investment bank traders is probably not too far off the mark though. They do not have a good image to say the least.

Mr.Spleem. The cynic in me thinks you already know the answer and are in fact trying to stir it up a bit. They are quite blatantly biased to one particular vendor as well you know IMO.

have to agree its better being a lone wolf than being a sheep led to slaughter.

Lori's advice is all you need to know. Best training course is trial and error on small stakes.
Saying that, he missed the boat. Successful punters have become more sophisticated, bot programmers have devised their bots with greater intelligence, and betfair have joined the fray inch by mile to the despair of the previous and others mentioned.
If I was a trained accountant, regardless of Monty Python sketches I'd stick to that unless the trial and error course returned fantastic results.
Regards.

Surely, that's wrong . Centaur cannot possibly be Fantastic4casts.com ? I wouldn't dream of subscribing to the people who promise huge wins. £50 a month ? They must be joking !

I can remember reading something about Centaur and it was supposed to be a quality outfit. I think that is unlikely that these two organisations can possibly be related.

why not give Centaur a ring & ask these questions

This is the first time I've heard of Centaur. Just read this Times article from April:

Investors are moving into betting as they seek ever more innovative ways to diversify their portfolios.

Last week saw the launch of the first regulated fund that allows you to benefit from the outcome of sports events such as football, tennis and rugby.

The Galileo fund, managed by the UK-based Centaur Group, allows individuals with at least €100,000 (£89,000) to spend to gain what the backers claim are uncorrelated “economy-proof” returns by trading on sports betting exchanges.

It follows the announcement of a service that tracks the Hollywood Stock Exchange, where movie-lovers can make (and lose) money by placing bets on a film’s potential success. It is managed by Cantor Fitzgerald, one of New York’s biggest brokers.
Related Links
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Betting exchanges, which have traditionally allowed betting on the outcome of sports events, are seeing a record level of interest in politics. Mike Robb at Betfair said: “The prospect of a hung parliament has added to the level of interest. There is now more variety in the political betting arena than in sports betting. This year we have about 1,300 political bets, compared with about 50 normally.”

They include everything from what colour tie Gordon Brown will wear on election night to which candidates will lose their deposits. In the 2005 election, about £7m of political bets were placed. So far this year, £5m have been placed — and that’s before the election has even been called.

For the first time, Betfair will allow customers to bet on the outcome in every constituency in Britain . Traditional bookies, such as William Hill, are offering the same service.

It slashed the odds on Vince Cable delivering the next budget from 12-1 to 7-1, after the televised debate between the potential chancellors on Monday. Osborne was still 2-5 favourite, with Alistair Darling at 8-1.

Here we explain how investment betting works.

THE SPORTS FUND

Centaur’s Galileo fund will seek to find statistical anomalies in betting exchanges, such as Betfair, **** and Sporting Index, to make a profit.

A betting exchange allows individuals to bet on the outcome of an event. The odds are set by individuals and not a bookmaker. It means that in some cases, the odds may not reflect the probability of that event occurring, based on facts.

Tony Woodhams at Centaur said: “The odds set on Andy Murray before Wimbledon are almost always wrong. People vote with their hearts and not their heads. Say the odds of Murray winning are 35% on betting exchanges. If our calculations show the real odds are about 25%, this is where we seek to make profit.”

Analysts use 10 years of sports data to estimate odds. These are updated “every second” and factor in things such as injuries and the weather.

The fund invests in eight core sports. No single one will take up more than 20% of the fund, though on average no more than 3% will be allocated.

Woodhams said the sports markets are not related to other asset classes, such as shares or property. “It’s an economy-proof environment,” he said.

However, financial advisers urge caution. Adrian Lowcock of Bestinvest said: “Sports betting should not be viewed as an investment. The risks are much greater and it is much more volatile.”

Centaur has been in operation for 10 years and has been applying its strategy to five unregulated funds. It says its average annual return is about 40%. Profits made are taxable, even though profits made through gambling are generally tax-free.

Money is held in a Credit Suisse account and the fund is audited by Deloitte. It is based in Gibraltar and regulated by the Financial Services Commission there — the equivalent of the Financial Services Authority, the City watchdog.

Investments do not fall under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, which covers you for up to £48,000 if the firm holding your money fails. Instead, the Galileo fund is covered by Gibraltar’s equivalent scheme which protects only €20,000.

The minimum initial investment is €100,000. Any additional investment must be the equivalent of at least €25,000. Fees include a 3% annual management charge and 30% of profits above a certain threshold. You also pay up to 5% if you leave within five years.

BETTING EXCHANGES

If you do not have €100,000 to invest, you could take a punt through betting exchanges. The largest by far is Betfair, which accounts for about 90% of the market.

Though it is best known for sports betting, a growing number of bets are being placed on political outcomes.

A betting exchange is different from traditional bookies such as William Hill or Ladbrokes. Instead of betting against odds set by the house, with a profit margin built in, the exchange brings together people with opposite views about a particular outcome, and individuals set the odds. The exchange takes a margin from winnings.

For example, last week someone made a bet at 12-1 that Labour would win the general election with a majority. It means that for every £1 they bet, they would get back £12 if it turns out they are right. Betfair matches that bet with someone who has the opposite view, who puts in £12 and gets £1 back if Labour doesn’t win with a majority.

Betfair holds the cash for both parties and pays the total, £13, to the winner. However, it also takes a small margin on the winnings so the total return will be less.

First-time players pay 5%, but the rate falls to 2% as you become a more frequent user.

Betfair currently has odds of a Conservative majority at 8-11, a hung parliament is 15-8 and a Labour majority 12-1. Gains made from betting are tax-free.

BETTING ON FILMS

Last month saw the launch of the Cantor Exchange, which allows you to profit from a film’s box office performance.

It is based in America and follows the Hollywood Stock Exchange — a virtual exchange that tracks the performance of Hollywood films at the box office.

The exchange goes live on April 20, subject to approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It will be called DBOR (Domestic Box Office Receipts) Movie Futures.

The launch is aimed at Americans, but Cantor exchange said there would be nothing to stop UK investors taking part.

The minimum amount you can put in depends on an expected profit target. Cantor Exchange said: “Say you want to invest in the new film Clash of the Titans. It is hoped the film will make about $200m (£130m). The minimum amount you can put in will therefore be $200. If the film does better than projected, you make money. If it makes less, you lose money.

“If you had made a bet on Avatar, which did much better than expected, you would have been in profit.”

If you think a film will do less well than expected, you can also short — bet against its success.

The final profit or loss figure will be calculated based on total US takings at the box office over four weeks for blockbusters and 12 weeks for those with limited releases, after which they will be delisted from the exchange. Analysts are examining whether the concept could be brought to the UK.

Sounds like Betting Promotion but without the private funding ?

betfairy  17:57 [;)]

Centaur say that they use a software that is just like Betfair Evolution. In their latest efforts to seel the product, Racing Traders say that they are "the first mainstream Betfair API Solution which allows you to trade in training mode. This means that you can learn to trade or test out a new system without any risk at all of losing money. The application uses the live Betfair data which means that you can get a feel for the market without putting any cash at risk."

Absolute nonsense ! MarketFeeder Pro has had this facility for years.

I believe that software manufacturers should be very careful in making claims about their products. The claim made that the Betfair Evolution software is the first to have a training mode is clearly untrue. Hopefully, their advertising material will be amended to reflect this.

If they are not prepared to change their advertising, Betfair ought to consider withdrawing its approval of the product.

Do you think that they would accept my IOU ? Given their expected return of 40%, even allowing for payment of fees, I'd be in credit in three years. Yes, they should allow me free membership of the Galileo Fund and start sending me some money just in time for Christmas 2013.

"Dictum Meum Pactum". I'll trust them if they trust me, that's fair, isn't it ?

What chance do I have of making money on sports trading when there are clever people like these around ? I think I'll go and eat a worm. I know my place.[:)][:)]

I cannot believe that Mr Black would want to be associated with anything that would drag Betfair into disrepute and am sure that he would only employ managers who had integrity.

If it is to continue to be successful, Betfair needs to be trusted by all its clients and I cannot see it doing anything which would cause that trust to be diminished in any way.

In 2001, he took early retirement and set up Centaur, a tipping advisory service based in his native north-east. By the middle of the past decade, it had 2,000 clients.

Its racing recommendations were so successful that its morning telephone messages to back a particular runner could move the market on a horse from 66-1 to as short as 4-1.


It's not too much much of a stretch of the imagination to assume that these guys know what they are doing. However It's reasonable to say that as capital increases a natural shift will occur toward maximizing fees rather than profit, which means allowing assets under management to grow to many multiples of what would be optimal.

That seems the most likely explanation for good results early on, and far less favourable results later on. The initial investors reap huge rewards, then a huge number of new customers jump on the bandwagon generating huge fees, while performance deteriorates.

Thanks for the link. If Centaur were capable of playing the markets so as to make big profits, they would rely solely on their own capital. Clearly, by seeking investment funds from outsiders they do not have this capability. It would appear that they are seeking to place themselves as intermediaries in sports trading and rely on fees for their own income.

Putting my best head on, and using it to its fullest extent, I am certain that they will never receive a penny from me.

Thousands of mug punters are obsessed with every race and every match. The few who go home rich are not interested in the spectacle, only the result.

Well he's get that wrong for a start, as a number of people on this forum swear the opposite (me for one).  It's that blinkered mentality that there's only one way to do things.  A closed mind.

Equally central to their empire building is a scheme for a government-approved MBA graduate diploma in sports betting trading. The idea is to offer bright young university graduates an alternative route to the careers and six-figure salaries they may once have gone looking for in banking and law.


Oh yes, I cannot wait for the first threads to appear: "I have a degree in Sports Betting.  Why can't I win"

Superb stuff!

there you go, the interesting thing is another world famous tipster complained, now that is strange

Isiris Racing Services challenged whether:


ASA Adjudication on Centaur Global Ltd
Centaur Global Ltd
187 Main Street
Seahouses
Northumberland
NE68 7TU
Date: 9 January 2008
Media:Press general
Sector:Leisure
Number of complaints:1
Complaint Ref:18008

Ad
An ad in the trade press, for Centaur Global's betting tipster service, was headlined "7 YEARS OF PROFIT"; text stated "NO ONE IN RACING OFFERS: OUR PERFORMANCE 7 YEARS TRADING - 7 YEARS PROFIT OUR TRANSPARENCY LOOK AT OUR WEBSITE IT SHOWS THE HIGHS AND LOWS ... It has been a well documented difficult year for tipping services across the UK But CENTAUR at this point in December are £7,754 in profit* on level £100 bet Thats [sic] the REAL REASON That EVERY YEAR Our Customers REJOIN & WIN *Figures verified by independant [sic] accountants No other tipping service allows such scrutiny of it's [sic] books. ASK YOURSELF WHY? CHECK 7 YEARS RESULTS ONLINE … ALL OUR BETS ARE PROOFED IN ADVANCE TO RACING POST AND TO CLB COOPERS THIS MEANS WE CANNOT LIE TO YOU IN THESE ADVERTS …".

Issue
Isiris Racing Services challenged whether:

1. the claim "7 YEARS OF PROFIT" could be substantiated; and

2. the claims "7 YEARS OF PROFIT", "7 YEARS TRADING - 7 YEARS PROFIT" and "Thats [sic] the REAL REASON That EVERY YEAR Our Customers REJOIN & WIN" were misleading and irresponsible, because they implied that subscribers to Centaur Global's services were very likely or certain to make a profit.

CAP Code (Edition 11)
3.17.12.2
Response
Centaur Global (Centaur) said they offered a number of different services but the ad referred to their main racing service. They pointed out that the result of every selection they had advised to clients for the last five years was recorded on their website. They said every Centaur selection was proofed in advance to the Racing Post and also to CLB Coopers (CLB), a UK accountancy and audit firm. They said CLB undertook a continuous independent verification of the performance stated on the Centaur website.

CLB said they had been proofing the forecasts of Centaur's main racing service since 1 July 2004. They said the selections were sent to them by e-mail on a daily basis and were always sent in advance of the race. They said, at the end of each month, Centaur provided them with a spreadsheet of the results for the month. They said their proofing involved them checking the horse's name on the spreadsheet against the daily selection, the result against the Racing Post website and the odds against an independent bookmaker's fax; they then checked the mathematical accuracy of the profit or loss shown by the spreadsheet. They asserted that any discrepancies were investigated with Centaur and the spreadsheet was updated if necessary; the spreadsheet was then put on Centaur's website. They said they had not given permission for their name to be used in the ad and they had not seen the ad or checked that the information in it was correct.

The Racing Post said Centaur had proofed forecasts to them since July 2000; they sent a screen grab from their ad booking system from 2000 highlighting Centaur's advertising activity. They sent a summary for Centaur for the period August 2002 - December 2006, broken down by year and indicating the annual profit.

They believed there might be some discrepancies between the selections they had sent and those provided by Centaur to the independent third party (CLB), because the monitoring process and the time in which selections were received was subject to individual interpretation and possible variance.  They believed, however, the figures substantiated the profit claims made in the ad. 

Assessment
1. Upheld

The ASA noted Centaur had been proofing their forecasts with the Racing Post since July 2000, a period of six years and five months at the time the ad was published. We also noted they had proofed their forecasts with an independent accountant since July 2004, a period of two years and five months at the time the ad was published.

We noted the ASA had adjudicated in March 2006 that the Racing Post's proofing system had not, at that time, been approved by an independent third party, as required by the CAP Help Note, and considered that it was therefore inappropriate for Centaur to rely on the Racing Post's proofing system to substantiate the claim "7 YEARS OF PROFIT".  We also noted Centaur's proofing of forecasts with the Racing Post and CLB did not span seven consecutive years at the time the ad was published.  We considered that, because they had not proofed their tips with an independent third party in line with the CAP Help Note for seven consecutive years, the claim "7 YEARS OF PROFIT" was misleading.

We requested that CLB send copies of all the e-mails sent by Centaur for seven random months of the period between July 2004, when Centaur started proofing their tips with them, and December 2006, when the ad was published.

We assessed the data and noted the overwhelming majority of forecasts corresponded exactly with Centaurs online spreadsheet of results.  We also noted, for those e-mails which included the time of the race meeting, the e-mails were sent prior to the start of the relevant events, which was confirmed by the electronic date and time stamp in the e-mail headers. We found a few inconsistencies, for example, a bet that had been proofed but not included in the online spreadsheet and vice versa.

We were concerned, however, that a large number of the e-mails we saw did not include the time or location of the race meeting for each proof and it was therefore not apparent whether the proofing e-mail was sent prior to the event starting. We were also concerned that, for only a small number of the proofing e-mails we saw had Centaur included a computer screen capture from a common betting exchange site for each of the listed events that confirmed the availability of the recommended prices in the forecasts. We were therefore unable to confirm the availability of the recommended prices in the forecasts for the majority of the e-mails we saw. We considered, therefore, that Centaur had not shown that their proofing with CLB since July 2004 was robust enough to support a profit claim. We concluded that, because Centaur had not proofed with an independent third party for seven consecutive years, and because they had not shown that their proofing with a third party since July 2004 was sufficiently robust, they had not substantiated the claim "7 YEARS OF PROFIT".

On this point, the ad breached CAP Code clauses 3.1 (Substantiation) and 7.1 (Truthfulness).

2. Upheld

We considered that we had not seen sufficient evidence to support the profit claims. We noted the ad stated "... LOOK AT OUR WEBSITE IT SHOWS THE HIGHS AND LOWS" but considered that, as a whole, it placed excessive emphasis on profits and winning and made inadequate reference to the possibility of tipping losers or losing money.  We considered that the ad misleadingly and irresponsibly implied subscribers to Centaur were very likely or certain to achieve a profit.

On this point, the ad breached CAP Code clauses 2.2 (Responsible advertising) and 7.1 (Truthfulness).

Action
We told Centaur to ensure they had evidence to show that tips had been adequately proofed with an independent third party for the time period stated in future ads. We also told them not to imply subscribers were very likely or certain to make a profit.

Adjudication of the ASA Council (Non-broadcast